Still have $LINK (-1,61%) and $LTC. Also $ETH (-0,56%) .

What do you do with them? Everything in $BTC (-0,07%) swap?

Thanks in advance

Last year, there was a distinct lack of snow in December. Instead, the portfolio did really well and I made progress with my crypto sell-off strategy. A small cold in the fall, despite taking good precautions, set me back in terms of ice bathing and hiking, but fortunately I was healthy again by Christmas. Unfortunately, that wasn't all... Time for a look back.

I present the following points for the past month of December 2024:

➡️ SHARES

➡️ ETFS

➡️ DISTRIBUTIONS

➡️ CASHBACK

➡️ AFTER-PURCHASES

➡️ P2P CREDITS

➡️ CRYPTO

➡️ WHAT IS REALLY IMPORTANT

➡️ OUTLOOK

➡️ Shares

$AVGO (+3,45%) is back on the tube. Wow, at +276%, the stock is now up for me. After the share cooled down a little, it went to the moon again in December.

$NFLX (+0,58%) and $SAP (-0,69%) are on a par with the previous month in terms of performance and are still in 3rd and 4th place in terms of volume. $WMT (-0,21%) . The retail chain will soon become a doubler for me.

The red lanterns will once again go to the usual suspects $NKE (-1,25%) , $DHR (+0,32%) and $CPB (-2,1%) . In terms of performance, all three stocks are down between -30% and -20%. They are the smallest positions in my main share portfolio with the $DHL (-1,45%) However, across all portfolios, the smallest positions are the new additions $SHEL (-0,69%) and $HSBA (+0,46%) .

➡️ ETFs

The ETFs are doing their thing as usual. This month, I immediately invested a refund from the previous year's utility bill in the $GGRP (-0,62%) and $JEGP (-1,49%) invested. I'm always expanding this asset class in particular with cash inflows. I don't care about timing. The money should go into the assets so that the stream of distributions keeps growing. I buy income and want cash flow.

➡️ Distributions

I received 34 distributions on 14 payout days in December. I am grateful for this additional income stream. My minimum target has been met anyway in this high-distribution month. The snowball rolling down the slope is getting bigger and bigger.

I already donated part of the dividend at the beginning of the month. This is based on the conviction that you can (and should) give something back, no matter how small, if you have the opportunity to do so.

➡️ Cashback

In November, I received €6 from redeemed Payback points, the equivalent of which I transferred from my grocery account to my settlement account. As already mentioned, there was also a credit from the utility bill. REWE and Penny have now separated from Payback, while Edeka, Netto Markendiscount and Marktkauf have joined. All three new stores are not in my immediate vicinity, which is why I will earn fewer Payback points in future. I will most likely collect the points mainly at DM. REWE and Penny now have their own bonus programs. REWE's will be exciting, as I can also save up credit with my purchases. I will deduct this discount from my grocery account and invest it in the same way as before. I'll see over the year whether it pays off more than Payback did back then.

➡️ Subsequent purchases

As already mentioned, there were additional purchases at $JEGP (-1,49%) , $GGRP (-0,62%) and $SPYD (-0,65%) . I always invest every little return or leftover money to further increase my portfolio. This buys me freedom.

➡️ P2P loans

I was finally able to get rid of Peerberry. Now only Mintos is hanging on my leg like a log. A mid-double-digit amount, which has long since defaulted, is still waiting to be refunded or written off.

This asset class will soon be history for me.

➡️ Crypto

All in all, December was another exciting month for crypto investors. Limit orders were triggered again for me. The last tranches $LINK (-1,61%) have left me, as has a first tranche $UNI (-1,97%) and a first tranche $BTC (-0,07%) . I have invested the proceeds in $HSBA (+0,46%) and $SHEL (-0,69%) invested in the separate portfolio. I have already explained my underlying strategy in detail, which you can read about in my articles. Recently, the crypto market has been in a sideways phase again. I'm hoping for another breakout in January to trigger further limit orders, as I still need to buy a security so that the separate portfolio pays me a return each month. So far, only two out of three quarterly months are covered. The two new stocks have even performed well in this short period of time, gaining around +3.6% within a month. The last purchase will perhaps be an ETF. You will see more about this in the coming reviews. I am already looking forward to collecting again in the coming bear market and will then certainly write an extra post with the levels at which I will gradually enter again.

➡️ What is really important

I remember December as a good month in financial terms, but unfortunately Christmas was overshadowed by tragic events this time.

After recovering from my cold at the beginning of the month a few days before Christmas Eve and getting back to my daily routine (consisting of work, running, ice swimming, hiking and my love of finance), I received the terrible news from Magdeburg. I am simply stunned and ask myself "why?". I am not affected, I am not one of the bereaved and I don't know any of the victims, the wounded or the bereaved personally, yet this event brought me down on the evenings around the Christmas holidays. Loyal readers know that I am working on a closer relationship with my ex's kids. Even though my blood doesn't run through their veins, questions ran through my mind about what if they were affected by the horrific act, or me? It could have happened anywhere. At least in the event of my untimely demise, I also made appropriate arrangements in the last few days of the year to ensure that what I leave behind ends up where I want it to be. I spent the turn of the year with the kids and the time I spent with them was the best end to the year imaginable. It's nice when connections continue to exist and you remain part of the life of the Kampfzwerge and can continue to accompany them through life.

➡️ Outlook

New year, new luck. I'll be surprised what the new year will bring. There will be a separate post for the evaluation of 2024 as a whole. I'm particularly happy because I exceeded an important goal despite a few expenses.

Links:

Social media links can be found in my profile, you can also check out the Instagram version of my review.

Tonight I also triggered a limit order at $BTC (-0,07%) triggered a limit order. A first smaller partial tranche has been sold. Everything is going according to plan. I have even revised the targets announced in my #krypto -I have even adjusted some of the BTC targets announced in my post upwards. This means that the limit order was triggered at around USD 106,500 / EUR 99,000. Over USD 10,000 more than planned. The order, which I also placed with a lot of gut feeling after my analysis, happens to be as good as the nightly top 🥰

The next tranche is at 104,000 EUR / 109,300 USD.

Even though my planning and analysis is based on USD prices for crypto, I have set the limit orders in EUR prices.

I am now also publishing what the profits and stakes will be reinvested in. The exact securities I am looking at have not yet been explicitly mentioned.

So far, investments have been made in $HSBA (+0,46%) from the proceeds of $XRP (+0,96%) , $LINK (-1,61%) and the first tranche of $UNI (-1,97%) -sales.

From today's first tranche of $BTC (-0,07%) -sales, I entered $SHEL (-0,69%) I have entered.

What else will come according to plan? $BP. (-0,76%) As a single share. I would then have 3 shares to cover the third month of each quarter with distributions in a separate portfolio. I want to cover the first two months with ETFs, including the first month with either the $EXSB (-0,94%) or (and) $EXX5 (-0,44%) and the second month with the $FUSD (-0,57%) . Will there be any overlaps with my main or one of the two old ETF portfolios in terms of the composition of the securities? For sure! But that doesn't matter to me, as I consider this portfolio, in which the crypto stakes and profits are invested, separately. As you can see from my articles, this is all about building up the basis, the dividends from which I will then use to build up new crypto holdings in the coming bear market so that I don't have to draw on my net salary. This is because the net salary is firmly earmarked for the regular savings plans and the distributions from the main and old portfolios.

Based on the current prices, I think that my second BTC tranche will be the next to fall. The altcoin season should start very soon. I can hardly wait $BCH (-1,13%) , $LTC (-1,04%) , $SOL (-1,57%) , $DOT (-2,75%) , , the rest $UNI (-1,97%) and $MATIC (-2%) to finally get rid of it. But I think it will be most exciting with the higher planned tranches at $BTC (-0,07%) and $ETH (-0,56%) .

Today the last limit order at $LINK (-1,61%) took effect. The coin is out of the portfolio.

I will announce my first successor share and possibly others in next month's review. Or sooner?

With today's 20% pump, first sell 25% of the stock 🚀

With the nice belated Black Friday sale, I just had to go to $LINK (-1,61%) , $ADA (-0,96%) and $DOT (-2,75%) and . Are you also stocking up a little?

And today the next two stop orders took effect:

The third of four tranches $LINK (-1,61%) left me today and also the first of two tranches at $UNI (-1,97%) .

In addition, the first tranches of $BCH (-1,13%) and $LTC (-1,04%) before liquidation. It should only take a few more days.

I have revised my exit targets for $BTC (-0,07%) have been adjusted slightly upwards, so I haven't sold anything yet, but the very first sale of the first sub-tranche will also take place here soon.

These are exciting times in this bull market. I only entered the crypto world towards the end of the last one, so this is basically my first bull market. I'm even looking forward to the first bear market, when the dividend shares from the current proceeds will automatically allow me to buy new cryptos without having to draw on my net salary.

My advice to all crypto newcomers as an experienced speculator:

It's always the same pattern. BTC leads the way, and slowly the voices of those who have understood it and have been with it for years begin to be heard. When the rise becomes unhealthy, those who have never dealt with it before come in - and they want to buy the top. This is followed by an important consolidation of the BTC price, where the general entry price increases, which is important for the market. When the price goes down in this consolidation, you see on-chain that many small wallets that bought the tops sell in panic, while the big wallets sell on the tops. When things get boring and there is little price movement in the BTC chart, the shitcoins pump.

At the Shitcoin top, people start asking again where the best place to buy these Shitcoins is, especially the Shitshit Coins. At the same time, you can see on-chain that the tops of these Shitcoins are sold again and again through exchange inflows from large wallets, while the retailer panics about not being at the party. So far, it has always been the same pattern, every single time. When it feels like no one is interested in BTC anymore, everyone has given up and massively exchanged "gold for shit", the BTC price breaks through to a new level again. I am sure that many people are now thinking about getting back into BTC.

Please, if you think you need to anticipate this seasonal retailer over-liquidity, rethink your speculative decisions. Also, be aware that shitcoins are not about utility, but only about the expectation of profit. If you look at the Shitcoins, ETH is the only one that can really be used - although the applications are also questionable, as this utility is virtually unused at the moment. ETH has massively underperformed compared to the other shitcoins. Why is that? Because we once again have a $APE (-2,4%) market in which coins are bought that live on a sectarian community, have a simple narrative and don't require any study to understand. I think most people's logic is: "Hey, I know this ticker, it already pumped in the last bull run, and the price is still very low, BTC is too expensive and can't go any higher." The problem is that retailers do not look at the market cap and have not plotted the chart logarithmically.

Everyone should do what they want, and I don't want to say that the party won't go on. There will certainly be more seasonal retail over-liquidity between now and the end of the year, as always, because Christmas bonuses or perhaps money from grandparents etc. are coming in. This "extra money" is then often seen as a lottery ticket. The easy money has already been earned and the party will only go on as long as retailers have excess liquidity.

I hope this helps some to avoid losses and understand how someone who has been around a long time sees things. I still have Shitcoin positions, but they are trading positions for me. You don't put Shitcoins in your portfolio for the long term - it's dead money 99% of the time, see the $XRP (+0,96%) chart. The only thing that really makes sense in the long term is BTC, because it has the greatest utility than digital gold and the best track record. Of course, you could also mention $ETH (-0,56%) as a lot has been built here. Probably also LINK $LINK (-1,61%) as it is more or less the industry standard for oracles, and Arbitrum $ARB (-2,52%) as an L2 solution. $SOL (-1,57%) Solana has also gained benefits, but compared to ETH it is still no comparison. The main benefits of SOL seem to be pump-and-dump, rugpull and memecoins.

Once again, the people who understand the market have already made a lot of money and are looking to cash out rather than put new money into XY new BTC now. I'm still slightly long, but I check the on-chain activity every day, sell the strength and buy the weakness.

By the way, after the new BTC ATH, we also had a local on-chain ATH in transactions from BTC wallets to exchanges. $BTC (-0,07%)

Today $LINK (-1,61%) broke through my limit order. My bet is out. :) Immediately placed two more, if it keeps pumping like this, I'll soon be rid of it :)

Hello everyone,

after my extra post on the topic #krypto there is a continuation today.

The text is long. But I only exist in long.

First a short summary.

In the current bull market, I will gradually sell all my crypto holdings according to plan and invest the proceeds in dividend-paying stocks (or perhaps even ETFs) in a separate portfolio in order to gradually accumulate new holdings again in the coming bear market with the help of the distributions.

The reason why I am taking this approach is that, with the exception of $SOL (-1,57%) all my holdings are tax-free, as the holding periods have expired and I can let the entire profit work for me. Reparking in stable coins is out of the question for me. I play this strategy because I see a connection between the debt cycle and the crypto cycle, which in my opinion are related as in the article below. You are welcome to read my reasons and assumptions again.

Please note that this is not investment advice or recommendation. All I did this Sunday afternoon was get the crystal ball out of the cupboard and try my hand at fortune telling. I will almost certainly be wrong somewhere.

In today's second part, I will discuss the price exit targets for altcoins and other thoughts. I divide my cryptos into four groups.

Group 1: "The big ones"

Price exit line for ETH

$ETH (-0,56%) is for me one of the few coins that can still achieve a higher ATH than the big leader $BTC (-0,07%) . However, we can clearly see that ETH has underperformed against BTC so far, with a downward trend. That's why I don't trust it to reach the target of $10K. With BTC I have seen a multiplier of 7-8x from the last bear market to the current bull market, here with ETH I see less as it is underperforming. From the last ATL to the top in February we have roughly a 3.8x increase. Now we are still below the February high. That's why I think that 4x (to 5x at the very most) is the end. As a result, I have set exit levels of 3.8K, 4K, 4.2K and 4.4K. This puts us below the last ATH, but as I said, I simply don't trust the coin anymore, as it seems to be constantly losing against BTC. What speaks against my thesis is ETH's dominance in what it is intended for and a possible future through staking.

Price exit line for SOL

$SOL (-1,57%) has already proven brilliantly that it seems to be winning over the crypto investor. In this coin, I've put the remnants of my seemingly infinite loss from the $DFI (-2,35%) / DUSD debacle in the hope that Solana's performance will somehow enable me to recoup some of it. Certainly not everything, but a little. And that has worked out quite well so far. I'm up 40% and expect even more here. Solana is the only coin I have that has already exceeded the old ATH, which is why I believe it can reach a higher level in the bull market. However, my calculation method (as with the following coins) does not work for this one. I therefore have to choose levels based on gut feeling and have set them at $350/400/450 and 500. The coin can certainly rise even further, but I simply lack the ability to calculate a level somehow.

Group 2: "The remains of liquidity mining"

Price exit line for BCH

Yes, my portfolio also contains $BCH (-1,13%) again. This was one of the two coins with which I gained experience in liquidity mining at CakeDefi. With little money, which then became even less due to the exit from the LM pool (but there were even more worthless DFIs). I was very impressed in the spring when this coin fought its way to $700. Looking at the overall chart, we can see that the ATHs have become smaller and smaller. That will also be the case this time. First just under 3.9K, then 1.5K. In other words, less than half of the rise. And I expect something similar again. Half would then only be just above the March high. That's why I'm positioning myself here at 650, 700 and 750. Maybe I'll be happy to get rid of the crap and throw them all out of the portfolio at once. Back then I was more convinced of LM than I was of the DFI ecosystem. Today, for me it's just worthless junk that will definitely be thrown out. The good thing is that I bought the coin in several tranches during the bear market and added it to the LM; my performance is now already at +280% (since "retrieving Cake").

Price exit line for LTC

And what is the name of the other coin that is no longer any good and suffers from the same disease as BCH? Of course the $LTC (-1,04%) . Both used to be hard forks. But in contrast to BCH, this one has not performed at all for me. Only +4% (measured since the retrieval of Cake, it's too complicated for me to determine that with the previous one because of the daily rewards at the time). LTC has made another higher top, but that won't happen again now. I'm sure of that. I don't even see the 200 USD. I'll be out at 150 at the latest and I'll throw everything on the market right away. After all, the coin has already doubled this year since the August low and there's certainly not that much air left in the balloon.

Group 3: "Convincing use cases for me"

Price exit line for LINK

$LINK (-1,61%) was a project that convinced me of its use case at the time. In times when I still believed in use cases for crypto and before I learned and understood the crypto cycle and before I realized that crypto (despite its advantages) is a zero-sum game. I bought Link with the next coin I'm about to list at around USD 10. Later, things continued to go downhill and I added more. This one is in the green zone for me at +95%. So today I am pleased. If we look at the maximum chart, we have a cycle ATH so far. So my method is not working here either. But I'm sure that we won't get to the old one, or is anyone still talking about this coin? At USD 20, 22 and 24 it's out for me.

Price exit line for UNI

In $UNI (-1,97%) I went in at the same time as $LINK (-1,61%) in spring 2022 and also topped up at the same intervals. I also liked the use case here at the time. A decentralized exchange. I found it very interesting back then how the whole thing works with liquidity pools and I still find it somewhere today. Nevertheless, this coin will also be removed from my portfolio. My performance here is slightly worse than with Chainlink, only +40%. And looking at the overall chart only gives me the opportunity to estimate I'm taking my cue from the previous one and scaling down. I liquidate at USD 16, 18 and 20.

Group 4: "For whatever reason..."

Price exit line for DOT

I just can't remember why I bought $DOT (-2,75%) bought. Same goes for the one time top up. Again, I plan to exit at $20. I've invested even less here, so I'll get everything out at once. Performance to date +40%.

Price exit line for MATIC/POL

$MATIC (-2%) I bought and added together with Polkadot and don't remember my intention to enter here either, but I think I promised myself a ride on the wave here. Want to get out at $1 here. All at once. My performance here is still negative at -50%.

Further thoughts and additions

Anyone who has read this far will have realized that I have undergone a transformation in my crypto journey. At the beginning, I only bet on the two big ones, then the DeFi world came along for me, at the same time two use cases convinced me and finally I simply bought two in the hope that they would rise (fortunately only with small play money).

When I was involved in CakeDefi back then and tried my hand at staking and liquidity mining, I simply wanted cash flow. The thought still lives in me, but I'd rather have it in FIAT currency. It just makes it a lot easier with tax. Withholding tax and that's it, it couldn't be simpler. I also got to know leverage at Cake with the borrow. It was a great story when you could immediately exchange mined DUSD for DFI and then leverage it again or put it into LM with BCH and LTC. But I didn't see the warning sign when the possibility of immediate exchange disappeared and then came the stabilization fee. I should have been out of the game by this point, I'd more or less paid the penalty. I won't do that again. What remains, however, is that I want to reinvest cash flow for free and try my hand at a small securities loan in times of even lower interest rates.

You can also see that I used to believe in use cases, but today I no longer believe in them at all. Even better, I exploit these use cases to make a profit. That's why I made my last investment in Solana with the Cake-Restern (and also with deposit money from found returnable bottles). I believe that there are others who see a future in Solana and am therefore getting in to take the exit liquidity that the newcomers bring with them.

For me, the only thing that matters now is the belief in the crypto cycle, coupled with the debt cycle. Please read the first post again, where I set out my assumptions.

Ultimately, my journey with equities and ETFs is much more exciting and even more complex. That is my main focus. For me, BTC is an admixture, and the rest of crypto is just crap. Of course, this looks very different through the eyes of someone who lives in Africa and can't get a bank account.

And now I wish us all good prices so that you too can take profits.