The market is showing several signs of overheating. Investors are taking on unprecedented risks, their cash reserves are nearly depleted, and capital is flowing into high-risk, leveraged funds. South Korea’s stock market is experiencing unprecedented volatility. The clearest warning sign, however, comes from the bond market: Demand for tech bonds has collapsed, investors are demanding higher interest rates, and major U.S. banks are reducing their positions. This is crucial—especially given significant financing needs on the horizon. At the same time, the promised AI returns are failing to materialize, as more affordable tools are hot on the heels of the leading systems. Historically, the bond market leads the stock market—especially at this level of risk. Consequently, the signals from the bond and stock markets diverge, as the attached chart shows.

Against this backdrop, renewed pressure on oil prices is a bad sign: Last week’s weak inflation report looked better because oil prices had fallen sharply in June; tensions in the Gulf over the past ten days mean that July will paint a different picture. Higher oil prices act like a tax on everyday life. This combination is bad for risk assets and could slow or even reverse interest rate cuts—a scenario in which central banks will ultimately have to pump fresh money into the system. This is precisely the environment in which $BTC (+0,01%) and $GOLD shine: Both are underperforming this year, and both would have the most to gain if central banks shift to monetary easing.

You can invest in Bitcoin through the following platform: $BITC (-0,83%)

After eight weeks of global outflows totaling $8 billion, sentiment toward crypto investment products has recently stabilized. Declining inflation data has $BTC (+0,01%) helped in the short term, as investors are once again betting more heavily on potential interest rate cuts.

Nevertheless, the picture remains mixed: The bottom #bitcoin is likely close or has already been reached. However, the catalyst for significantly higher prices is still missing. Without a clear shift in interest rate expectations, $BTC (+0,01%) it is likely to trade sideways for the time being. A breakout above $80,000 currently seems unlikely.

(Author: James Butterfill, CoinShares’ Head of Research)

You can invest in Bitcoin through the following vehicle: $BITC (-0,83%)

The Geopolitical Risk Index has just risen sharply—a warning sign. The historical data (since 1985) is clear: the higher the geopolitical risk, the higher the inflation. In the worst-case scenario, we can expect inflation of 5.7 percent. Normally, in times of crisis like these, safe-haven assets such as $GOLD and $BTC (+0,01%) rise significantly. But in 2026, things are different—both assets have significantly underperformed despite rising risks. For investors, this means that traditional crisis-hedging strategies are not currently working reliably.

$BITC (-0,83%)

On the client side, there was considerable interest in whether $BTC (+0,01%)Strategy’s position poses an existential risk to the asset class. It does not. Four percent of the supply is simply not enough to trigger a structural collapse—from a purely mathematical standpoint, this concern does not hold water.

However, the shift in market sentiment is particularly interesting. When Michael Saylor sold 32 #bitcoin —a man who once said he’d rather sell a kidney than his $BTC (+0,01%) —the announcement alone initially triggered a 9.3% drop in the price. Not because of the volume—32 $BTC (+0,01%) is negligible—but because of the signal it sent. Since then, Strategy has quietly sold 3,588 $BTC (+0,01%) . The market seems to be getting used to it. The shock effect of $BTC (+0,01%)Strategy’s sales is fading, and I expect this narrative to become increasingly less significant. The data so far already supports this.

You can invest in Bitcoin through the following vehicle: $BITC (-0,83%)

$BTC (+0,01%) has rebounded following the weak U.S. jobs data—a sign of how strongly the market reacts to interest rate expectations in the short term. More important, however, is what’s happening beneath the surface: Large wallets appear to be accumulating again after months of caution, while ETF outflows are at least stabilizing. This suggests capitulation rather than structural weakness. Nevertheless, a clear catalyst for a new upward move is still missing: The Fed remains hawkish, ETF inflows have yet to be confirmed, and geopolitical risks persist.

Conclusion: #bitcoin It looks more like an early bottoming process—not yet a clear new bull run.

You can invest in Bitcoin through the following vehicle: $BITC (-0,83%)

The crypto market has received little support from capital inflows recently. U.S. spot$BTC (+0,01%)ETFs have now recorded eight consecutive weeks of outflows—the longest streak since their launch—with more than $6.5 billion flowing out since May. In $ETH (-0,18%)-ETFs, inflows have slowed, while Strategy, the Saylor-led #bitcoinTreasury company, sold 3,588 $BTC (+0,01%) to finance dividends on preferred shares. Against the backdrop of these challenging market conditions, $HYPE (-0,81%) continues to trade near its all-time high.

#hyperliquid-ETFs have recorded inflows every week since their launch in May, including approximately $161 million in June, bringing the total assets under management (AUM) of the three U.S. products to about $336 million. The European products have additionally recorded a volume of over 55 million US dollars. While these figures are still small in absolute terms, on a market-capitalization-adjusted basis, this ranks $HYPE (-0,81%) rank among the strongest crypto ETF launches to date. Their relative strength compared to the broader crypto market remains clearly evident.

In our view, this is a strong signal that the tokenomics of $HYPE (-0,81%) are resonating with investors. The allocation of 99% of platform fees toward the systematic buyback of $HYPE (-0,81%) creates a direct link between protocol activity and token demand, thereby giving the asset a value creation mechanism that clearly stands out in the current market.

$BITC (-0,83%)

$LIQD (-1,96%)

$CETH (-1,83%)

Selling by whales—the key trigger for the October sell-off—has cooled off significantly, and that’s important. Based on the four-year $BTC (+0,01%)cycle, we expected sales to taper off six to nine months after they began, and that’s playing out roughly as planned. The caveat, however, is that historically, whales do not re-enter the market as buyers until the next halving, which isn’t due until 2028—so price support from that quarter is not yet in sight.

$BITC (-0,83%)

(Author: James Butterfill, CoinShares’ Head of Research)

We would frame this thematically, rather than as tips. $BTC (+0,01%) The core position remains—best understood as long-term monetary hedging rather than as a risky investment. It has proven remarkably resilient amid the Fed’s shift toward a restrictive monetary policy. $ETH (-0,18%) is the direct beneficiary of the tokenization trend and serves as a settlement infrastructure—we evaluate it based on its staking yields. One name that illustrates where the market structure is heading is $HYPE (-0,76%): Prior to the recent SpaceX listing, its SPCX perpetual contract traded over $1.30 billion in 24 hours, and its pre-IPO complex has open positions of around $291 million and a cumulative volume of $6 billion. This illustrates that on-chain venues are becoming true drivers of price discovery for assets that traditional markets either severely ration or fail to price continuously.

$BITC (-0,83%)

$CETH (-1,83%)

$LIQD (-1,96%)

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is returning to normal, oil prices have fallen significantly, and are back at pre-crisis levels. As a result, inflation concerns are taking a back seat for now—and investors are once again focusing more heavily on artificial intelligence. Sentiment on the stock markets is correspondingly robust, while the crypto market has seemed comparatively lackluster since October.

Some of the recent ETF outflows should therefore be viewed less as a fundamental shift away from $BTC (+0,01%) but rather a reallocation: capital is flowing into semiconductor stocks, AI beneficiaries, and major IPOs. For the Federal Reserve, the key question remains whether AI is already delivering real productivity gains—or whether the markets are primarily anticipating future effects.

Crypto currently seems unspectacular. The key point is this: the asset class hasn’t disappeared; it’s searching for a new, more use-case-driven narrative. Beneath the surface, tokenization is gaining momentum—with equity and commodity perpetuals, pre-IPO shares, prediction markets, and, in the future, tokenized portfolios.

$BITC (-0,83%)

Bitcoin remains highly dependent on interest rates in the short term. Although the Fed kept its benchmark interest rates at 3.5 to 3.75 percent, it struck a clearly hawkish tone: inflation remains elevated, uncertainty is high, and interest rate cuts are not on the horizon. This weighs on liquid assets such as $BTC (+0,01%).

Nevertheless, crypto is showing relative strength. Following the Fed’s latest signals, Bitcoin fell by only 1.6 percent, while stocks also declined significantly. At the same time, outflows from digital asset ETPs slowed to $149 million.

Hyperliquid remains an exciting development: the SpaceX-linked perpetual contract reached a daily trading volume of over $1.3 billion. On-chain markets are increasingly becoming genuine venues for price discovery.

$BITC (-0,83%)

(Author: James Butterfill, CoinShares’ Head of Research)