I once asked ChatGpt how likely a listing of $3350 (+10,83%) on the American stock exchange.
Don't worry, I know that ChatGpt is not a confidential source for such things. I was just interested and maybe some of you are too.
So here is ChatGpt:
What speaks for a US listing
Here are reasons why a US listing could be useful and technically feasible for Metaplanet:
Market accessibility & capital
A listing in the US (e.g. Nasdaq or NYSE) makes it easier to attract institutional investors from North America and raise capital through broader markets/investor circles.
Image & Visibility
A US listing often brings more exposure to international investors, analysts, media, etc., which in turn can boost perception and valuation.
Trend towards Bitcoin Treasuries
Metaplanet is operating in an area in which companies such as MicroStrategy already have a strong presence in the USA. The business model should be comparatively compatible with US investors interested in crypto or companies with Bitcoin as part of their balance sheet.
Preparatory signs
There are indications that Metaplanet wants to operate more internationally. For example, overseas share issuance, expansion of the number of shares and interest in being listed outside Japan.
What speaks against it / hurdles
But there are also significant hurdles:
Regulatory requirements in the USA
A listing in the USA entails many additional requirements, e.g. US accounting, disclosure standards (SEC), corporate governance, possible audits by auditors, etc. Depending on how well Metaplanet already fulfills these requirements, the transition could be time-consuming.
Costs & effort
Preparation, compliance, ongoing reporting, investor relations, etc. require resources that not all Japanese companies are willing to devote.
Market conditions & investor interest
The success of a listing depends heavily on how attractive the company is from the perspective of US investors - especially with Bitcoin volatility, uncertainty regarding crypto regulation, etc.
Currency and country disadvantages
As a Japanese company, there are exchange rate risks, cultural differences in reporting, etc., and perhaps tax or legal complexities if you operate primarily in Japan but want to be listed in the US.
Dilution / share structure
Some of the planned corporate actions (share issues, preference shares etc.) could dilute existing shareholders - this could hold management back if pressure from US investors becomes too great.
My verdict: How likely is a US listing?
Taking these factors into account, I would say:
- In the short term (next year or two): medium-likely. There are clear intentions and movements in this direction, but the hurdles are still there, especially regulatory and cost/benefit considerations.
- Medium-term (in three to five years): quite likely, provided Metaplanet continues to successfully develop its Bitcoin strategy, shows stable returns/structures and receives positive feedback from international investors.
If I had to make a rough estimate, I would say about 40-60% probability that they will be listed in the US in the next 3-5 years.
