BNP Paribas ($BNP (-0,89 %)
)
Price: €100.66 | Rating: 🟢 BUY | Investment Score: 82/100
Business Quality —
84/100
BNP Paribas remains one of Europe’s highest-quality banks, with strong diversification, scale and competitive positioning.
1H26 was strong:
- Revenue: €28.15bn (+10.2%)
- Net income: €7.56bn (+21.8%)
- EPS: €6.45 (+24.5%)
- CET1: 13.0%, already reaching the group’s target ahead of schedule
- Management targets >13% ROTE by 2028 and >10% EPS CAGR through 2028.
The AXA IM acquisition also strengthens BNP’s asset/wealth-management platform.
Valuation
2025 EPS was €10.29. 1H26 EPS of €6.45 annualises to €12.90, but this includes an exceptional Q2 benefit, so I use roughly €12.0–12.4 normalized 2026 EPS.
At €100.66:
- P/E: ~8.1–8.4x normalized EPS
- P/B: ~0.92x
- P/TBV: ~1.02x
- Dividend yield: ~5.1%
This is attractive for a bank capable of generating a >13% ROTE.
Valuation
Scenario
Fair Value
Bear
€90–100
Base
€112–122
Bull
€130–140
Central Fair Value
€118–120
At €100.66, this implies approximately 18–19% upside, plus a ~5% dividend yield.
Factors
- Quality Premium: Positive, but moderate
- Reinvestment Runway:
7.5/10 - Balance sheet: Very strong
- Capital allocation: Very strong
- Margin of Safety: Moderate
Final verdict
🟢
BUY — 82/100
Fair Value: €118–120
Bottom line: BNP Paribas is currently a high-quality European bank trading close to tangible book value while delivering strong earnings growth and improving ROTE. The valuation is attractive enough for a BUY, but the margin of safety is not yet large enough for a Strong Buy.
- ≤€93–95: Strong Buy territory
- €100–102: Buy
- €115–120: Hold / weak Buy
- >€130–135: Sell, unless fundamentals improve materially
