$INV

US45784M1080

1. the problem: Why cooling becomes a bottleneck

When talking about AI infrastructure, the same terms are usually used: GPUs, networks, power supply, data center capacity. However, one factor is still too rarely discussed - cooling. heat dissipation.

Each new GPU generation is more powerful than the last. However, more computing power also means more power consumption, and this power is almost completely converted into heat. The more densely the racks are packed, the more heat is generated in the smallest of spaces.

Air cooling is increasingly reaching its physical limits. It has worked for years, but with modern AI racks with 100-300+ kW power per rack, it is simply no longer enough to cool the room. You have to cool the chips directly.

This is not a future theory, it is physics, and it is already a reality today.

2. the technical solution: two-phase direct-to-chip cooling

The first step away from air cooling is single-phase liquid coolingA liquid flows through cooling plates directly on the chip, absorbs heat and transports it away. This works better than air - but even here there is a limit.

The decisive physical lever lies in the phase changeWhen a liquid evaporates, it absorbs many times more heat than when it is simply heated. This is precisely what two-phase cooling:

• Liquid hits the hot chip
• It evaporates and absorbs a lot of heat in the process
• The vapor is discharged and condenses back into liquid
• The cycle starts all over again

The denser future racks become - keyword: Vera Rubin and subsequent generations from H2 2026 - the more important this technology becomes. You can have land, you can have power, you can have GPUs - but if the rack cannot be cooled efficiently, the full computing power simply cannot be used.

3. the company: Accelsius and its product NeuCool

Accelsius is not a classic startup. The company was founded in 2022 by Innventure to commercialize a high-performance cooling technology that was originally developed at Nokia Bell Labs developed at Nokia Bell Labs. The core product is called NeuCool.

What NeuCool does

• 4,500 W cooling capacity per GPU socket - more than the specified upper limit of 4,000 W for next-generation single-phase systems
• No water in the IT rack - instead a dielectric, non-conductive refrigerant (safety class A1). In the event of a leak, there is no short circuit on the GPUs
• Almost no water consumption - important, as water consumption is now triggering political resistance to new data centers in the USA

The product range

MR250

Two-phase direct-to-chip solution for new buildings (greenfield)

up to 250 kW

IR150

Fully integrated rack solution incl. CDU, 42U IT area, distributor - plug & play, also suitable for retrofits

up to 150 kW

TSR

Thermal simulation rack for testing and validation without expensive AI servers

Simulates up to 252 kW

economic efficiency

According to Accelsius and an analysis by Jacobs Engineering, the following savings can be achieved compared to single-phase systems:

• 35-44% annual OpEx savings
• 8-17% TCO savings over 5 years

4 Validation: Who is behind it?

Accelsius competes with established players such as Vertiv, Schneider Electric and CoolIT. The competitive risk is real. This makes external validation all the more important.

Capital:

• Series B round of 65 million USDled by Johnson Controlswith participation from Legrand
• Post-money valuation: ~665 million USD

Ecosystem:

• Participant in the NVIDIA Inception Program
• Presentation at the NVIDIA GTC
• Technology partner in the Dell Customer Solutions Center

Commercial Deployments:

• DarkNX (Ontario): 300 MW AI campus to deploy NeuCool - the largest two-phase direct-to-chip deployment in the world to date, according to Innventure
• Validations underway with: Global Switch, Equinix, Nordik Data Centers, Computacenter

Hyperscaler discussions are taking place, but are still in the early stages. The management is communicating this transparently and expects a new product line with higher CDU capacity in the coming months.

5. the investment vehicle: Innventure (INV)

Accelsius is not listed on the stock exchange. The only public access is via Innventure ($INV
)the parent company, which also holds AeroFlexx (packaging) and Refinity (plastics recycling) in addition to Accelsius.

Innventure owns ~43% of Accelsiusbut retains the majority of voting rights, meaning that Accelsius is consolidated in the INV balance sheet.

Outlook of the management

• Accelsius order intake Q1 2026: > USD 50 million
• Cash flow break-even expected at Accelsius: End of 2026
• Annualized sales rate Accelsius end of 2026: ~100 million USD
• Positive consolidated cash flow Innventure: Targeted by 2028
• AeroFlexx and Refinity to conduct own capital rounds to relieve the burden on the holding company

Main risk: Historically, Innventure has diluted shareholders through capital increases at holding company level. The company communicates that future financing should primarily take place at subsidiary level. The SEPA (Standby Equity Purchase Agreement) remains a formal risk, but according to management it should not have to be activated.

6. valuation

As Innventure is not a traditional income company, a sum-of-the sum-of-the-parts approach (SOTP) is appropriate.

Starting point: Implied market value of Accelsius

Last private valuation Accelsius

*Conservative assumption of USD 50-100m for AeroFlexx + Refinity and deduction of the holding company's net debt.

The market is therefore currently valuing Accelsius at a moderate premium to the last private round - but not nearly as if Accelsius were a potential solution provider for a central AI infrastructure bottleneck.

Comparative value: CoolIT takeover by Ecolab

Ecolab acquired CoolIT for ~USD 4.75 billion with expected annual revenues of ~USD 550 million - this corresponds to a sales multiple of ~8.6x. CoolIT is commercially more mature, but this value serves as a realistic reference point.

Scenarios for Accelsius until the end of 2028

Recalculation to the INV share price

(Assumptions: 40% INV stake after potential dilution at subsidiary level, USD 50m for AeroFlexx + Refinity, 100m fully diluted shares)

7. risks (summarized)

• Dilution risk: Innventure has historically impacted shareholders through capital increases. SEPA continues to be active.
• Competition risk: Vertiv, Schneider, CoolIT and others are established and well capitalized.
• Commercialization risk: Incoming orders ≠ sales. Conversion needs to be proven first.
• Clump risk: Few large customers (e.g. DarkNX) make up a significant part of the prospect.
• Technology risk: It is not certain that two-phase cooling will become the standard. Improved single-phase systems could last longer than expected.
• Holding structure: INV is not a direct investment in Accelsius. The holding discount is structurally justified.

8. conclusion

Innventure provides public access to Accelsius, a private company developing two-phase direct-to-chip cooling, which could become increasingly necessary as AI rack densities increase.

The current market capitalization of ~$510m implies an Accelsius value of around $850-950m. This is a moderate valuation for a company with >$50m in new orders last quarter, a strategic investor round, partnerships with NVIDIA, Dell, Johnson Controls and Legrand, and a deployment that is expected to be the largest of its kind in the world.

This is not a low-risk stock. The holding structure, early stage development and dilution history are real risks. But this complexity is probably why the valuation does not yet reflect the potential value of Accelsius.

$INV
$NBIS (-2,61 %)
$NVDA (-1,88 %)
$AMD (+4,14 %)

Last year I reached the first €100,000 and now I'm already at €200,000 :)

Next year then probably the 300,000? 😝

The sum looks surreal to me, to have so much at the age of 27.

Just don't let the market crash now. 🙈

$RKLB (+7 %)

$NBIS (-2,61 %)

This trend has largely bypassed my portfolio, at least in terms of equities. As I have been investing in commodities and energy for a long time, as I have repeatedly written here, the current top 8 by performance looks very different to most people here who are probably investing in individual stocks.

In 9th place, by the way $INTC (+1,54 %) !😂

But the truth is also that I $IREN (-1,65 %) in between with 500%, otherwise they would now be in 2nd place if they had started at $9 at the time and would also $NBIS (-2,61 %) would be in 1st place. While the hedged profits at $IREN (-1,65 %) were at the right time, the sale of $NBIS (-2,61 %) was a mistake from today's perspective, despite a profit of around 150% at an entry price of €32. But that happens to everyone over the years.

$IREN (-1,65 %)

Conclusion:

My assessment: the structure is more positive than negative for existing shareholders.

Not because there is no dilution - there potentially is. But because IREN:

- raises a lot of capital,

- pays a coupon of only 1%,

- the conversion only starts at around USD 73,

- strongly cushions the dilution through capped calls up to approx. 110 USD.

For me, this is a pretty good financing deal. The market will now ask less: "Is the convertible bond dilutive?" - but rather: "Can IREN generate a return above the dilution costs with this USD 2.6-3.0bn capital?"

If the Nvidia/AI cloud case works out, this convertible bond is more of an accelerator. If the execution disappoints, it is of course additional leverage in an already very ambitious equity story.

In any case, it was an intensive exchange in which I also repeatedly triggered the negative points. Today, of course, I would have preferred $NBIS (-2,61 %) but I still feel comfortable in the long term 🙂

VG micha

The $META (+0,64 %) share has not been performing for some time now, despite the growth spurt resulting from the use of AI. The analysts' current price target is currently +35%. The market is punishing Meta for its very high investments in AI infrastructure. This is understandable, as high expenditure puts pressure on margins. However, the market is largely ignoring the potential return on these investments. If the AI offensive works, it will not only protect the core business, but also make it significantly more profitable. Why I $META (+0,64 %) attractive and what reasons speak for a positive future:

1. the core business

Social media has become the central advertising channel of the global economy, growing by >30% per year. Today, companies of all sizes search for and find their customers primarily on Instagram, Facebook and, in the future, Threads. Usage is habit-based and cross-platform; users are not active on either TikTok or Meta, but usually in parallel.

$META (+0,64 %) has a reach with its apps that can hardly be replicated. This makes the advertising business highly profitable and extremely scalable. Even without new products, this is an excellent business.

2. two major monetization levers are only just beginning

WhatsApp and Threads have been built up for years, but have hardly been monetized until now. That is now changing:

- WhatsApp Business and cloud solutions are becoming an infrastructure for commerce and customer service

- Threads is gradually building an advertising model and ideally complements the Instagram ecosystem for text-based reach as a competitor to X.

Neither of these are bets on new markets, but the logical expansion of existing user relationships.

3. meta AI

Skepticism about the massive investments in AI infrastructure and models is understandable. Strategically, however, I see it differently: Meta is the first major operational (software) beneficiary of AI, not because it sells models, but because AI makes its own advertising machine better.

Better targeting, automated ad creation and more efficient playout increase the return on ad spend for advertising customers. This leads directly to higher budgets for Meta. A cycle is created: more investment in infrastructure leads to more computing power, which leads to better models, better models lead to better ads, better ads lead to more revenue, and more revenue finances the next round of investment.

In addition, Meta wants to use AI specifically for personal AI and for the development of new, independent apps. The massive expansion of its own cloud capacity is a double competitive advantage. Firstly, it accelerates the training and improvement of the company's own models (Llama, Muse Spark). Secondly, computing power itself becomes digital gold because it is the key bottleneck in the market. If you have capacity, you can develop, implement and scale products faster.

Theoretically, Meta could also rent out excess capacity to third parties and thus build up an additional cloud business. However, I don't see this as a strategic direction. The real value lies in consistently using the infrastructure for your own ecosystem and thus increasing the distance to competitors.

The feedback to Other Bets is also particularly interesting. The further development of AI glasses and the VR business not only benefits from the company's own AI infrastructure, it also strengthens the core business. Both areas provide additional, context-rich usage data and create new areas of interaction that further improve targeting, personalization and ultimately the monetization of the advertising platform.

4. financial strength allows strategic patience

$META (+0,64 %) finances these investments largely from its own free cash flow. The company has low debt and is highly profitable. This gives the management the opportunity to think long-term, even if the market fears short-term pressure on margins.

Risks that I consciously take:

- Around 98 percent of sales depend on the advertising market. In a recession, the first thing to be cut is marketing, which would hit Meta directly.

- Regulation in the EU around personalized advertising remains an ongoing issue.

- Although the regulatory risk of increasing minimum ages for use has a negative impact on user numbers, it only has a marginal economic impact on Meta because minors do not account for a significant proportion of revenue.

- The allocation of capital is heavily dependent on Mark Zuckerberg, and the success of the AI expenditure has not yet been proven.

These points are well known and weigh on the valuation. Nevertheless, the risk/reward ratio is positive for me.

I am holding $META (+0,64 %)because I get two things at the same time. Firstly, a core business that is hardly vulnerable even without AI and generates enormous cash flows. Secondly, a cost-intensive but strategically correct AI offensive, the success of which has hardly been recognized by the market to date. If Meta succeeds in making the advertising platform noticeably more efficient through AI, improving its models and applications and monetizing WhatsApp and threads, I believe that large share price gains are realistic in the long term.

No investment advice

$GOOGL (+0,01 %)
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$NBIS (-2,61 %)

Monday, May 11

17:00: Inflation expectations of the New York Fed

Tuesday, May 12

14:30: US consumer price index (CPI) 🌶

Wednesday, May 13

14:30: US Producer Price Index (PPI)

Thursday, May 14

14:30: US retail sales 🌶

14:30: US import and export prices

16:30: CLARITY Act vote 🌶

Friday, May 15

14:30: Empire State Manufacturing Index

15:15: US industrial production & capacity utilization

16:00: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary)

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