With the last workday of the week comes my final “bagholder” stock feature—Nike ($NKE (+3,42 %) ). With a loss of about 23% (just under 10,000 euros), it’s actually hardly a “bagholder” stock at all. But since I think the turnaround will take a little while longer, I’ve put it on the list anyway! 😉

👟 Quick Profile

There’s really not much to say about Nike. I don’t think there’s anyone in the world who doesn’t know the brand. In addition to the core brand, the group also includes Jordan Brand and Converse. Its business ranges from athletic shoes and apparel to sports equipment and direct sales through its own stores and online shop.

📊 Fundamental Data

• Stock price: approx. $34.75
• P/E ratio (TTM): approx. 16.6
• Forward P/E: approx. 25.5
• Dividend: $1.64
• Dividend yield: approx. 4.7%
• Revenue FY 2026: $46.4 billion
• Net income FY 2026: approx. $3.1 billion

📉 How is the business performing right now?

The latest figures for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 are rather sobering:

• Revenue: $11.2 billion (-4% year-over-year)
• Nike Direct: $4.1 billion (-8% year-over-year)
• China: still one of the company’s biggest challenges
• Gross margin: 42.8% (+0.6 pp)
• EPS: $0.48

The problem is that Nike Direct—that is, the company’s own sales channels, including its online business—continues to struggle. Nike has therefore announced “Pace,” a new multi-year restructuring program. The goal is to save $2.5 billion by fiscal year 2031. This includes further job cuts and a restructuring of the regions.

🤔 Why might the stock be a good buy?

1. The brand remains extremely strong.
Nike enjoys global recognition, sales strength, and an enormous reach in the sports world.

2.
The restructuring could pay off. The Pace program is designed to improve the cost structure and make the organization more efficient. If it succeeds in reducing costs sustainably, it would bring EPS—and thus the P/E ratio—back into acceptable ranges.

3. Expectations are now low.
At a share price of around $35, a great deal of pessimism is already priced in. Should Nike stabilize its revenue growth in the medium term, a revaluation could follow. The market currently doesn’t expect much more.

4. The company continues to pay a dividend.
The yield is currently around 4.7%. That’s nice, but of course not a sufficient reason to buy a stock if the company’s operating performance continues to deteriorate.

⚠️ Why is the stock still so cheap?

China remains a real problem. There, Nike is suffering from lower customer traffic, high inventory levels, and intense discount pressure. In the first quarter, revenue in Greater China fell by 26%. This, of course, also rendered the forecast for fiscal year 2027 obsolete. Revenue is now expected to decline by a high single-digit percentage. Adjusted earnings per share are projected to be between $1.15 and $1.35. So things will get worse for now before they (hopefully) start to improve again starting in 2028 or 2029!

The bottom line is that the turnaround will take time. The cost savings from Pace are expected to unfold over several years. Further job cuts have been announced, and the problems at Sportswear, Jordan Brand, and Converse have not yet been resolved.

🎯 My Bagholder Rating -> 7/10 Bagholder Points

For me, Nike is a classic turnaround bet—though one that will require patience. Nike is a global brand with enormous reach, but strategic mistakes in the past have led to relatively rough waters operationally... and it will take a few years to correct that.

The appeal lies in the fact that expectations are low, and stabilization in China, new successful products, and better margins could make a big difference.

I’m (still) comfortable with my entry price of just under 40 euros. Over a 5-year horizon, I can definitely imagine the price doubling from this level—which would amount to just under 20% per year, plus the dividend. 😉

$NKE (+3,42 %)

Turnaround point

20 units at $33.72

September has come to a close, marking yet another somewhat mixed month. Basically, it was another rollercoaster ride that ended on a “downward” note. Unfortunately, this has also caused the overall YTD performance to slip slightly into negative territory. But we still have a few months left to turn things around... 😉

Early last month, I also decided to make my portfolio a bit less risky and to restructure my entire asset allocation. My medium-term goal is to completely phase out fixed-term deposits, leave 50,000 euros in a money market account, and reallocate two-thirds of the portfolio to an All World ETF. I’ve at least made some (too) small progress in this direction...

Portfolio at a glance:

👉🏻 September:

Starting balance: 1,477,964 euros + 70 in cash

End: 1,444,708 euros + 600 in cash

Deposit: 48,500 euros

Loss: -81,226 euros (-5.50%)

As is the case every month, the performance of my portfolio currently depends largely on the performance of gold and silver mining stocks—and thus directly on the performance of commodity prices. Due to sharply rising bond yields, the price of oil, and expectations of rising interest rates, these stocks have once again come under pressure. However, my fundamental expectation of rising gold and silver prices in the long term due to the global debt crisis remains unchanged, so I don’t want to dwell on this point any further right now...

I think the progress on my portfolio restructuring is more interesting. Although I was able to add nearly 50,000 euros to the portfolio from a maturing time deposit, I’ve made only very limited progress on my medium-term plan. 🐌

Current progress toward goals:

👉🏻 Money market account -> 50,000 euros: 40 euros

👉🏻 All-World ETF -> 1,000,000 euros: 9,200 euros

So where did the money go? I invested just under 10,000 euros in $VWRL (-0,6 %) . I actually wanted to leave the rest in the money market account (which is currently paying 3% interest, after all). That worked out fine for two weeks, but then I had to jump back into individual stocks.

The main additions to my portfolio were Vonovia ($VNA (-2,06 %) ) and, to a lesser extent, McDonald’s ($MCD (+2,55 %) ) and Alibaba ($BABA (-1,67 %) ). And with that, the money was (unfortunately) gone again... 😅

I see a lot of potential in Vonovia in particular, especially if you’re willing to hold onto it for a while. Right now, of course, the political situation in Berlin is taking center stage, but I still have some residual faith in the German rule of law. In fact, an expropriation at market value would actually be a stroke of luck for Vonovia, and I firmly believe that if expropriation is allowed at all, it will happen at or around the current market value.

McDonald’s and Alibaba are more long-term investments and also my first positions in these stocks. It’ll all work out... 😉

So much for my mixed bag of a September! Let’s see how October plays out. With Nike ($NKE (+3,42 %) ) and Accenture ($ACN (+4,49 %) ), two of my holdings are reporting their quarterly results today. Let’s hope for a successful start to the month! 👍🏼

➡️🆓: On my way toward 4 million in total assets, I’m now 45.5% of the way there.

Here’s to successful stock market trades! 😊

After 3 months of accumulating funds and exercising discipline while waiting for opportunities, I allocated the €1,400.00 in accumulated cash.

The initial plan was to focus the entire capital on $ROL due to extreme oversold levels (RSI at 16.00 on the weekly chart). However, to prioritize risk management and control exposure to an asset experiencing an operational slowdown, I chose to split the amount into three equal tranches (~€466.00 per position):

🔹 $NKE (+3,42 %) (Nike) — RSI at 22.00 on the weekly chart (1W), solid ROIC-WACC spread (+5.90%), and virtually no debt.

🔹 $ROL (+4,08 %) (Rollins) — Mean-reversion thesis in a high-quality asset with a weekly RSI of 16.00, balanced by the risk of a Q2 guidance cut.

🔹 $MCD (+2,55 %) (McDonald’s) — Confirmed technical discount with a weekly RSI at 26.00 and exceptional fundamental quality (ROIC-WACC spread of +18.10%).

Strategy executed, risk diversified, and capital working for the long term. 📈💼

Good luck to everyone!

​Even though it hurts to sell a stock that's down 40% from your portfolio, sometimes it's just time to draw a line under it.

Right now, consumer stocks aren't much fun, whether $NKE (+3,42 %) , $ONON (+2,45 %) or $LULU. (+4,26 %) The (remaining) money is simply better invested in other sectors right now.