https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/effetto-conti-lusso-parigi-tonfo-kering-ed-hermes-AItitzVC

$MONC (-0,28 %)
$BCUCY (+0 %)
$BOSS (+0,44 %)
$KER (+1,73 %)
$MC (+1,86 %)

Today I am analyzing three major luxury goods stocks following weak quarterly figures: Hermès, LVMH and Kering. All three shares have recently come under heavy pressure.

👜 Hermès analysis

Hermès reported sales growth of just 1.4%. Adjusted for currency effects, growth amounted to 5.6%; 7.1% had been expected. The regional picture was mixed: Asia +2%; USA +17% and therefore very strong.

The share fell by 15% at times and is now trading around 27.5% below fair value. At the same time, it is around 48% below its all-time high.

The range between EUR 1,350 and EUR 1,650 appears interesting from a technical perspective.

👠 Kering analysis Kering published a profit warning for the first half of the year of -40 to -45%. Gucci, which contributes around 45% to sales and is particularly weak in Asia, remains a particular burden.

The share is trading only slightly below fair value, while the fundamentals have clearly deteriorated in recent years. I believe a further decline of around 20% towards EUR 190 is possible.

💼 LVMH analysis LVMH reported the seventh consecutive quarter of declining sales in the key Fashion & Leather Goods segment; most recently -2%. Although the jewelry segment grew by 7%, it only accounts for around 12% of sales.

LVMH has a broad regional base: Asia, Europe and the USA each contribute around 25%. However, no region is currently providing clear growth impetus. On the chart, the share is just above EUR 440. A further decline of up to 25% remains possible.

The 10-year comparison:

• Hermès +120%
• LVMH +10%
• Kering -60%

⚠️ Conclusion Hermès looks the most exciting after the setback. LVMH remains neutral, while Kering continues to present the weakest fundamental picture. What would be your favorite in the current environment? $RMS (-0,35 %) , $MC (+1,86 %) or would it be $KER (+1,73 %) ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gO5tzq1dBCA

$MC (+1,86 %) presented its quarterly figures and fell short of expectations.

Sales (expected): EUR 19.44 billion

Turnover (reported): EUR 19.12 billion

Not only did this fall short of expectations for the first quarter of 2026, but reported revenue was also around 6% lower than in the previous year, while it remained largely stable when adjusted for exchange rate effects.

The reasons for the weaker performance are complex. Firstly, demand in the important Fashion & Leather Goods segment fell short of expectations. In China in particular, consumer momentum remains subdued. Secondly, geopolitical uncertainties such as the Iran conflict are weighing on global consumer sentiment in the luxury segment. Currency effects and an overall more cautious consumer attitude in the premium segment are also acting as a headwind.

It is particularly critical to note that the core business, which normally acts as a growth driver, continues to show weaknesses.

The reaction on the stock market was immediate.

In after-hours trading, the $MC (+1,86 %) under significant pressure, showing that the figures were received negatively despite already subdued expectations. Apparently, the market had expected weakness, but not to this extent.

https://de.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transkript-lvmh-zeigt-sich-im-ersten-quartal-2026-widerstandsfahig-trotz-herausforderungen-93CH-3425391

~ No investment advice ~

LVMH $MC (+1,86 %) shows resilience in the first quarter of 2026, even if the bare figures are clouded at first glance by exchange rate effects.

The most important key figures:

Sales: €19.1 billion (Reported: -6%).

Organic growth: +1 %

Currency effect: -7% (massive headwind from the strong euro).

Performance check of the divisions:

Watches & Jewelry (+7 %): The clear growth winner thanks to strong Tiffany collections.

Wines & Spirits (+5%): Recovery in champagne and strong business in China.

Selective Retailing (+4%): Sephora continues to shine with global momentum.

Fashion & Leather Goods (-2 %): The core segment is feeling the effects of the reluctance to spend in the Middle East.

Perfume & Cosmetics (0%): Christian Dior and Guerlain maintain stable levels.

Regional trends:

While Asia (excl. Japan) remains the locomotive with +7% organic growth and the USA (+3%) is up, Europe and Japan both recorded a decline of 3%.

Conclusion for the market:

LVMH demonstrates operational strength in a volatile environment. The organic growth shows that the desirability of the brands is unbroken - only the conversion into euros is currently having a negative impact on the balance sheet. The focus remains on "icons" and strict cost efficiency.

This evening at 18:00 $MC (+1,86 %) presents its quarterly figures for Q1-2026 and the starting position could hardly be more exciting.

• Turnover (expected): EUR 19.44 bn
• EPS (expected): not consistently reported

The market is currently rather pessimistic, particularly in the Fashion & Leather Goods segment. Weaker demand impetus, particularly from China, and generally subdued momentum in the luxury segment have recently depressed sentiment. At the same time, this very pessimism has already led to a noticeable valuation discount. Accordingly, the bar is currently not extremely high and this could be the decisive factor.

Should $MC (+1,86 %) even slightly exceed expectations or at least signal more stable trends in the important Fashion & Leather Goods segment, this could, in my opinion, lead to a more significant upward price movement due to the depressed expectations.

If demand (particularly in China) remains weak or the core business disappoints again, the negative sentiment could become more entrenched. Currency effects and a possible slowdown in global consumption also remain potential negative factors in my view.

All in all, I think a lot of negative factors have already been priced in.

How do you see it? Is a $MC (+1,86 %) is a "solid" quarter enough for a significant price movement this time or is the next disappointment in the luxury segment imminent?

https://de.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/luxusaktien-unter-druck--jpmorgan-sieht-jetzt-grose-chance-bei-richemont-3420718

https://de.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/ubs-das-sind-die-topluxusaktien-vor-der-q1berichtssaison-93CH-3413203

~ No investment advice ~

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00:00:00 Oil and government bonds

00:37:50 Liberty Energy $LBYE

00:48:30 Cheniere Energy $LNG (-0,41 %)

00:56:35 Kinder Morgan $KMI (+0,48 %)

01:00:52 Iran war losers / Buy The Dip

01:19:20 Bitcoin

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Hello everyone,

here is my review for March. Even really early this time.

📈 Performance:

S&P500: -3.9%

MSCI World: -4.8%

DAX: -10.3%

Dividend portfolio: -5.9%

My high and low performers in March were (top/flop 3):

🟢 ($PETR4 (-2,58 %) ) Petroleo Brasileiro +19.38%

🟢 ($ADM (-2,14 %) ) Archer Daniels +10.98%

🟢 ($GAIN (+0,31 %) ) Gladstone Invest +4.08%

🔴 ($CTAS (-0,56 %) ) Cintas -13.88%

🔴 ($MC (+1,86 %) ) LVMH -14.49%%

🔴 ($ULVR (+1,3 %) ) Unilever -18.70%

Dividends:

March 2026: €178.82

March 2025: € 182.98

Change: -2.27%

This change is partly due to the fact that the USD exchange rate is still worse than last year. In addition, Imperial Brands also paid a significantly higher dividend last year (I think it was a special dividend). Otherwise, Unilever only pays in April and STAG has also switched to quarterly distributions, so that nothing was paid in March either.

Sales:

🟥 None

Purchases:

🟩 SIXT ($SIX2 (+0,81 %) )

🟩 Ferrari ($RACE (-0,79 %) )

Savings plans:

($CTAS (-0,56 %) ) Cintas (50€)

($MC (+1,86 %) ) LVMH (50€)

($MSFT (+1,38 %) ) Microsoft (25€)

The sale of Lockheed Martin in February was fairly neutral from a purely price perspective. Lockheed has neither risen nor fallen significantly. So far, I have no regrets about the sale (although the dividend for March is now missing, of course).

What else has happened?

March was pretty up and down. In terms of performance, this was one of the worst months ever for me. The only worse month for me was September 2022 with -6.3%.

The nest egg continues to grow and, as I said, it will be fully built up in April. But I may have to work on it again. At the moment, I'm thinking about a photovoltaic system. With an almost new build, heat pump, hybrid and purely electric car, the advantages are obvious. The roof is south-facing. So I would benefit fully. The only question is how to finance it. Do I need the money that is earmarked for the loan repayment in 5 years? 100% financing from the bank? At the moment I've sent out a few requests for quotations.

My Payback points were stolen in February. 12995 points were used for a payment at DM. Well, I just hadn't activated the 2FA. Stupid myself. I wrote about it in last month's report. In fact, the Payback points were credited back to me by DM at the beginning of March. I don't know whether this was a scam or whether Payback did something because of my call. I only saw it by chance and of course had everything paid out directly to my account. Lesson learned - I will rebook more often in future.

🥅 Goals for 2026:

I'm trying to reach €85,000 in my dividend portfolio this year. This is to be achieved through dividends, deposits and, of course, share price increases. Let's see how things look at the end of the year, as the first quarter was rather sluggish. I'll have to make up for that over the course of the year.

Anyone who liked the report and would like to read more is welcome to follow me,

If you're not interested, you can keep scrolling or use the block function.

Strategic branding move: Sephora joins the F1 Academy™ as an official partner in 2026$MC (+1,86 %)
$FWONA (-0,72 %)

The deal: Presence at 18 Grands Prix worldwide (incl. "Glam Bars" in the Paddock Club).

Sponsorship: Spanish driver Natalia Granada competes for the PREMA team in the iconic Sephora look.

Strategy: LVMH uses the Formula 1 hype to position the Sephora brand globally in the area of "female empowerment" and lifestyle sports.

The company reported figures for 2025 yesterday. My key takeaways:

Prada brand growth in 2025

The core brand Prada recorded a slight decline in retail sales in 2025 of -1 %.

Miu growth in 2025

Miu was once again the Group's growth driver and increased organic sales in 2025 by an impressive 35 %.

Miu Miu growth in 2026

After the extreme growth of previous years, the management is forecasting a normalization in the single-digit single-digit percentage range.

More than solid for the current market environment, but no longer as impressive as in the last 3 years.

Versace turnaround

Versace is deliberately "shrinking back to health", which is reflected in a planned decline in sales for 2026 and a currently negative EBIT currently negative. This is a long-term turnaround!

China recovery

Sales rose by 10 % after several years of negative growth. A good sign, especially in view of the fact that other luxury companies here are still struggling with declining sales!

Influence of the currency effect

Negative exchange rate effects caused sales growth to fall from 9% to 5%!

Guidance and market outlook

The Group has refrained from issuing specific guidance for 2026 and is sticking to its target of achieving growth above the market average of the luxury sector.

Here are the results of the last quarter in relation to the "industry standard" LVMH.

Above: Prada $1913 (-1,33 %)

Below: LVMH $MC (+1,86 %)

Q1 2024

~€1.25 billion (+17%*)

20.7 billion € (+3%*)

Q2 2024

~€1.30 billion (+17%*)

21.0 billion € (+1%*)

Q3 2024

~€1.35 billion (+18%*)

~€20.5 billion (-3%*)

Q4 2024

~€1.50 billion (+18%*)

~€22.5 billion (0%*)

Q1 2025

~€1.35 billion (+9%*)

20.3 billion € (-2%*)

Q2 2025

~€1.40 billion (+9%*)

19.5 billion € (-6%*)

Q3 2025

~€1.35 billion (+9%*)

18.3 billion € (-3%*)

Q4 2025

~€1.60 billion (+10%*)

22.7 billion € (+1%*)

So we see: Prada is doing well!

What the company lacks is LVMH's PR

You can find out more about this in a more detailed comparison of key figures on my profile :)

Thanks for reading. As always, factual feedback is welcome!