First of all: I don't want to talk down anyone's investments here. Everyone has their own strategy - that is important and right. Nevertheless, I am sharing my personal assessment of luxury stocks such as LVMH, Christian Dior, Moncler, Prada, etc.

In the years 2020 to 2023 - during and after the pandemic - the luxury sector experienced a real boom. Restrictions in everyday life, no restaurant visits, canceled vacations - many people suddenly had more money in their bank accounts that they actually wanted to spend. And what happened? The luxury companies' marketing machines were running at full speed. Influencers, FOMO, exclusivity - luxury became the new must-have.

T-shirts that might cost 1 dollar to produce were sold for 500-1000 dollars. Bags without a logo were suddenly considered worthless. And champagne only Moët, please - nothing else. You either belonged - or you didn't. Clever hype, without question. The companies were delighted. Record sales, new stores, more staff.

But now? Inflation, price rises, economic headwinds. Official inflation may be 0.3-0.4 % - in reality, we are all feeling something completely different. Housing, food, travel - everything is becoming significantly more expensive. And this is having an impact: the middle class, which helped fuel the luxury boom, is slowly returning to its senses. A Gucci shirt for 1000 dollars? No longer bought. Many items end up on platforms second-hand at a 90% discount - in the hope of getting at least a fraction of the money back.

Of course, there is always a small target group that can and wants to afford real luxury - no question about it. But the mass hype? Over in my opinion. Similar to watches, Pokémon cards, expensive wine & whiskey - it was a trend. And trends pass.

The current economic and geopolitical outlook does not exactly point to a new boom in this sector. There is also a growing awareness: Paying $1,000 for a shirt that's already crumbling after seven washes doesn't exactly seem like a smart decision to many, looking back.

I don't want to make a blanket statement here: "Luxury is bad" - on the contrary, I love beautiful things just as much. But for me, it's not an investment, it's a desire, a pleasure - like a nice car or a good watch.

Conclusion: The current weakness of LVMH & Co. comes as no surprise to me. It will be interesting to see what happens next. But my capital is flowing into other sectors for the time being.

$MC (+2,21 %)
$MONC (-4,45 %)
$1913 (+1,04 %)
$BOSS (-0,03 %)
$RMS (-2,4 %)
$CDI (+0,2 %)
#luxus
#luxusmarken

Prada $1913 (+1,04 %) wants to take over Versace for 1.5 billion . euros: The billion-euro takeover is about to be finalized. Talks between Prada and Versace are already in full swing after an initial comprehensive audit revealed no risks. However, it is possible that both the timing and the value of the deal could still change. Failure of the negotiations cannot be ruled out either. Versace is under the umbrella of the parent company Capri Holdings, which also includes the luxury brands Michael Kors and Jimmy Choo. With the presentation of Versace in the shop window, Capri Holdings is clearly signaling its interest in this iconic brand, which occupies a prominent place in the fashion world.

Meanwhile, Chinese factories are seeing orders coming in as a result of pressure from tariff measures. In February, manufacturers in China reported a surge in orders as importers sought to circumvent the higher tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. This unexpectedly positive news comes at a time when China's leaders are gathering in Beijing for the annual meeting of the National People's Congress. Lawmakers are expected to support the policies and priorities set out by the ruling Communist Party. This may bring fresh aid to the economy, which is currently heading for growth below 5%. The introduction of an additional 10% tariff on imports from China highlights the uncertainty surrounding the future of the world's second largest economy. Premier Li Qiang will present a work report on Wednesday, which traditionally includes the annual growth target and other important economic updates.

Sources:

https://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/handel/prada-will-versace-kaufen-milliardenschwere-uebernahme-steht-kurz-bevor-a-0ffaff98-84e9-40f6-a767-974d54b9de3d

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-factories-see-improved-orders-055439906.html

As every Sunday, the most important news of the last week, as well as the three most important dates of the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/uFwVbCNGMd4?si=R4ReCZQl2ud6wUW-

Monday:

$9868 (-2,31 %) Xpeng and $VOW3 (+2,81 %) VW deepen their partnership in China 🇨🇳. Among other things, they are opening up their fast-charging networks to each other. New charging stations are also to be built jointly. VW holds a 5% stake in Xpeng.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/autobauer-xpeng-und-volkswagen-erweitern-ihre-partnerschaft-in-china/100098791.html

$BOSS (-0,03 %) Hugo Boss wants to further strengthen the brand and has brought brand expert James Foster on board for this purpose. Foster was most recently head of marketing at Netflix in EMEA and worked at IKEA and Adidas.

https://www.absatzwirtschaft.de/neuer-globaler-marketingchef-bei-hugo-boss-265528/

Inflation is clearly above expectations and is therefore depressing sentiment for the time being. In December, inflation stood at 2.6% Economists had expected 2.4%. The inflation rate is also likely to remain well above the 2.0% target in January. This is due to higher CO2 prices and a more expensive ticket to Germany.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/inflation-teuerungsrate-steigt-in-deutschland-auf-26-prozent/100098327.html

The USA 🇺🇸 puts Tencent on a list of companies that allegedly support the Chinese military. The share loses significantly.

https://de.marketscreener.com/kurs/index/DOW-JONES-INDUSTRIAL-4945/news/USA-fugen-Tencent-und-CATL-der-Liste-chinesischer-Firmen-hinzu-die-angeblich-Pekings-Militar-unte-48689565/

Tuesday:

A cooperation between $NVDA (-1,35 %) NVIDIA, $KGX (+1,91 %) Kion and $ACN (-0,72 %) Accenture to optimize supply chains causes Kion shares to rise significantly. Kion and Accenture are relying on AI from NVIDIA for optimization.

https://www.ariva.de/amp/ki-anwendungen-kion-arbeitet-mit-nvidia-zusammen-11493206

Wednesday:

$TMV (+1,13 %) Teamviewer announces via ad hoc that it has exceeded its forecast for the year. Turnover increased by 9% in 2024. In total, it will probably be 671 million euros. The forecast was 662 - 668 million euros. This was mainly due to new billings and significant contracts signed with major customers.

https://www.boerse.de/nachrichten/EQS-Adhoc-TeamViewer-SE-TeamViewer-erzielt-Jahresumsatz-2024-von-ca-671-Mio-EUR-9-Prozent-waehrungsber-ggue-VJ-und-uebertrifft-Prognose-ausschlaggebend-waren-hoehere-Billings-von-ca-700-Mio-EUR-im/36874269

Retail sales have been growing again for 2 years. In real terms, however, the level is still below that of 2021. Compared to the previous month, sales have fallen more sharply than expected. However, the overall consumer mood among Germans is on the rise. The GfK consumer barometer climbed by 1.8 points to -21.3 points.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/handel-konsumgueter/handel-deutsche-einzelhaendler-steigern-umsatz-im-jahr-2024/100099305.html

Donald Trump is calling for more military spending and also wants to annex three countries - Canada, Panama and Greenland. This is not only highly dangerous rhetoric, but above all in the interests of Russia and China, who are planning to do the same with Ukraine and Taiwan. If Trump follows up his words with action, this would put the 'ambitions' of China and Russia into perspective

Thursday:

The Chinese fast clothing delivery service Shein probably wants to go public in the first half of the year. The IPO is planned for London. Shein is headquartered in Singapore.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/handel-konsumgueter/shein-billigmode-haendler-plant-boersengang-wohl-im-ersten-halbjahr/100099587.html

Friday:

$1913 (+1,04 %) Prada is probably planning to take over the Italian fashion house Versace. Versace is currently part of the Capri holding company. A sale of the entire holding company for 8.5 billion euros has failed. Individual brands such as Versace and Jimmy Choo are now up for sale.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/handel-konsumgueter/luxusmarken-prada-an-uebernahme-von-versace-interessiert/100099688.html

The labor market report from the USA is significantly better than expected. This could lead to the Fed lowering interest rates more slowly than previously assumed. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, expected: 4.2%. A total of 256,000 new jobs were created, compared to an expected 155,000.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/konjunktur-us-arbeitsmarktbericht-faellt-ueberraschend-gut-aus/100099726.html

$NLM (+0,72 %) Frosta exceeded the profit forecast. As expected, turnover amounted to 638.1 million euros. Profit rose to 42.1 million euros and was thus significantly higher than in the previous year (34.1 million euros). The profit margin was also above expectations at 6.6%.

https://www.4investors.de/nachrichten/amp/boerse.php?sektion=stock&ID=181168

These are the most important dates for the coming week:

🇺🇸

Tuesday: 14:30 Producer prices (USA)

Wednesday: 14:30 Inflation data (USA)

Friday: 15:15 Industrial production (USA)

Can you think of any other dates? Write it in the comments 👇

#termine
#inflation
#industrie
#usa

Podcast episode 57 "Buy High. Sell Low."

Subscribe to the podcast to keep more net from gross!

00:00:00 Vistra Energy, Constellation Energy, Uranium Energy, Uranium ETFs $VST (+0,17 %)
$STZ (+2,19 %)
$UEC (+4,51 %)

00:37:20 Alibaba, China stocks $9618 (-1,3 %)
$700 (+1,09 %)
$80700
$1211 (-1,57 %)

01:12:00 Exxon, Shell, Diamondback Energy, oil ETFs $SHEL (+1,87 %)
$GB00B03MM408
$RDS.A

01:32:00 LVMH, Hermès $MC (+2,21 %)
$9988 (+2,44 %)
$BABA (+2,02 %)

01:42:00 Kering $KER (+0,84 %)

01:45:00 Dior, Prada, luxury ETF $CDI (+0,2 %)
$1913 (+1,04 %)
$AMUN (+0,9 %)

01:48:00 Rising social security contributions in 2025 #ampel#money

Spotify
$SPOT (+3,13 %)

https://open.spotify.com/episode/44odhfXKc9Do4d6OE6nY3M?si=aXivvFZdSWmn5rOiEk9ElQ

YouTube
$GOOGL (-1,34 %)
$GOOGL (-1,34 %)

https://youtu.be/HBb1kKaeh5A

Apple Podcast $AAPL (+1,76 %)
#podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/folge-57-alibaba-lvmh-shell-vistra-exxon-hermes-diamondback/id1695869891?i=1000670846325

Wanted to share my portfolio with you. Been investing since May 2020. 25 years old, full-time job and I buy and sell cars from time to time. Have a mix of growth stocks and dividend stocks. This year I will invest more outside the US to reduce the US share a bit. I will mainly $D6H (+0,75 %)
$YSN (+8,24 %) buy more. New additions will be: $WKL (+0,4 %)
$1913 (+1,04 %)
$CNQ (+2,59 %) After all the purchases have been made, I will increase all positions below 1k.

Hold the stock since the beginning in the portfolio and am just also mega happy. But do not understand at all, why the share just goes off so!? Does anyone know why? Thanks