$KSPI (+1,42 %)
$NCLH (-3,89 %)
$STNE (-0,59 %)
$BEI (+2,28 %)
$SE (-3,65 %)
$ONON (-4,42 %)
$TGT (+0,05 %)
$GTLB (-2,05 %)
$CRWD (+0,76 %)
$BAYN (-2,91 %)
$WIX (+1,15 %)
$ADS (-1,52 %)
$AVGO (+0,15 %)
$DHL (+1,07 %)
$R3NK (+3,01 %)
$JD (+7,9 %)
$BILI (-3,64 %)
$1913 (-7,7 %)
$MRK (-2,54 %)
$MRVL (+6,33 %)
$GPS (-7,04 %)
$COST (+1,91 %)
$IOT
$LHA (-0,32 %)

$DHL (+1,07 %) has today experienced a considerable decline of just under -5%.

I have not found any reasons for this with a quick online search. Has anyone heard/read anything?

Finally some positive news with expansion and new locations:

https://www.boerse-express.com/news/articles/dhl-aktie-herausragende-prognosen-866170

One of the top 15 stocks in my portfolio in terms of weighting and perhaps a reason to increase the weighting here?

Quarterly figures are due on March 5. I think I'll be watching until then, but I still find the price of €48 interesting.

With the capital released from our

partial sale of $DHL (+1,07 %) we bought shares in Microsoft.

Microsoft is currently valued at a relatively low P/E multiple. The stock market is critical of the high expenditure on data centers. This has led to a sharp sell-off in the recent past, despite double-digit profit growth.

In our view, Microsoft has become a reliable dividend payer with high dividend growth. In our view, the relatively cheap US dollar also made it a good time to buy.

Microsoft is thus the first of the Big6 IT companies in our value portfolio.

We will publish a detailed stock analysis on our YouTube channel shortly.

What do you think of the acquisition?

Having already had good experience with a partial sale of DHL, we have halved our position again.

The reason for this is the high weighting of around 10% in the portfolio and the realization of price gains. We re-entered DHL after an earlier partial sale at prices of around EUR 35 and have now realized our price gains of just under 50%.

What do you think of this investment decision?

As mentioned in an earlier post, I've been playing the lottery with my grandma since the beginning of 2025 and reinvesting the winnings in shares in $DHL (+1,07 %) where she used to work. The investment is therefore very personal and not designed for maximum return. The aim is rather to subsidize the lottery with the capital gains and to pay for the lottery tickets in full with the DHL dividend in the future.

I am satisfied with the statistics so far. Since the beginning, the values are as follows:

Lottery tickets: -142€

Lottery winnings: +81€

Price gains: +18€

Dividends: €1.92

Total loss: approx. 41€

In this case, the actual monthly costs for playing the lottery amount to approx. 3.20€. We took part in both draws every week.

The good results are largely due to the relatively high lottery winnings and the high price growth. It can therefore be assumed that the costs will increase over time as soon as the lottery winnings converge to the expected value or the share price growth decreases. At the same time, the increase in dividends due to new purchases and higher distributions will counteract this. The distribution is made annually, which is why purchases after May 2025 are not included in the dividend payment. The distribution in May 2026 is therefore expected to be twice as high.

Leading The Charge - Turning risk into reward with a circular economy for EV batteries and critical minerals, a white paper published by the Ellen MacArthur Foundation during the 2026 World Economic Forum, is the first integrated, actionable roadmap for a circular value chain for EV batteries based on real-world industrial practice.

It is also an important milestone in the collaboration between CATL and the Foundation.

The report was developed with input from over 30 leading organizations from across the EV battery ecosystem - including CATL $3750 (+1,65 %), DHL $DHL (+1,07 %), Volvo $VOLV A (-1,46 %) and JLR, as well as research institutions and NGOs - and provides clear, industry-focused direction on how EV batteries need to be designed, used, recovered and recycled to maximize their value and reduce systemic risks across the value chain.

As a strategic founding partner of the Foundation's Critical Minerals Mission, CATL worked closely with the Foundation and industry peers to translate circular economy principles into practical, actionable measures based on real-world operational experience. The roadmap also supports CATL's global commitment to the circular economy in energy, including its long-term goal of decoupling battery market growth from the extraction of new raw materials.

It highlights the environmental, economic, product development and overall value creation opportunities that a circular EV battery system can provide.

By reusing batteries and their critical minerals over multiple life cycles, the need for newly mined materials is reduced, emissions are lowered and the integration of renewable energy is promoted. It also increases economic value by improving material efficiency, reducing waste and operating costs and creating new revenue streams. At the same time, it strengthens supply chain resilience and distributes economic benefits more equitably across regions, demonstrating that a systemic, circular approach transforms potential risks into strategic, value-creating opportunities.

》Five bright spots for a circular EV battery system《

The white paper identifies five interlinked actions required to keep battery materials in high-quality use and strengthen the resilience of the system:

● Design batteries for the circular economy, not for disposal

● Rethink battery service within optimized energy mobility systems

● Scaling circular business models that treat batteries as long-term assets

● Building regional circular infrastructures and co-investing in them

● Enabling a circular operating system through data, standards and guidelines

》CATL measures already in practice《

CATL is already implementing these measures at system level in all its operations. By separating the battery from the vehicle, CATL manages batteries as centrally managed assets, increasing utilization, enabling scheduled maintenance and ensuring a predictable end-of-life return on investment.

Today, CATL operates more than 1,000 swap stations for passenger cars and over 300 for commercial vehicles, supported by a growing ecosystem of more than 100 partners.

This system integration enables high-quality recovery on a large scale. CATL's recycling activities achieve recovery rates of 99.6% for nickel, cobalt and manganese and 96.5% for lithium, with processing capacity expanding to 270,000 tons per year.

In parallel, CATL is deploying alternative chemistries such as sodium-ion batteries, using widely available materials and reducing lifecycle carbon emissions per kilowatt-hour by up to 60%, improving circular performance in the mobility, exchange and energy storage sectors.

》Scaling together《

At the Foundation's Leadership Briefing, Jiang Li, Vice Chairman and Board Secretary of CATL, emphasized: "This report marks an important milestone in the global journey towards a circular economy for batteries. Circular battery systems now need to be scaled across regions, industries and applications - from electric vehicles to energy storage - and adapted to different market contexts."

"With the increasing adoption of electric vehicles, a circular economy for batteries and critical minerals is no longer optional - it is essential for affordability, resilience and long-term growth while reducing environmental and social impacts," said Wen-Yu Weng, Executive Leader for Critical Minerals at the Ellen MacArthur Foundation. "EV batteries are strategic assets, and circular approaches are key to preserving their value and ensuring that critical minerals never become waste. We welcome CATL's contribution and look forward to continuing to work together to scale a truly circular battery system and support the wider energy transition."

For CATL, this agenda directly underpins its journey to carbon neutrality - building on the achievement of carbon neutrality at all its battery plants and its goal to achieve carbon neutrality across the value chain by 2035.

The publication of the report marks a first milestone in the broader collaboration between CATL and the Foundation to accelerate the circular economy for critical minerals. The next phase will focus on testing these approaches in real-world settings to understand how design, use, life extension, collection and recycling loops interact at scale

After more than 25 years of negotiations, the EU and the South American economic alliance Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay) have concluded a historic free trade agreement. This creates one of the largest free trade zones in the world - with over 700 million people and a combined economic area worth around 22 trillion USD.

This agreement could trigger global economic and stock market effects - for companies, industries and investors.

_________________________

🛃🚢 What will happen to the Mercosur agreement?

• Tariffs on up to 91% of EU exports and 92% of Mercosur exports are to be gradually eliminated.
• The aim is to create a larger single market, better market access, simplified rules and more stable trading conditions between Europe and South America.
• Until now, high tariffs have applied to cars (approx. 35%), machinery (14-20%) and chemical products (up to 18%).

_________________________

📊 Possible effects on the stock market

📈 1. industries with strong exports benefit from higher demand

Europe can sell its products more easily in South America:

• 👩‍🏭 Cars & car parts
• 🏭 Mechanical engineering
• 🧪 Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
• 🪄 Electronics & high-tech

The elimination of customs duties and fewer trade barriers will increase the margins and competitiveness of these industries.

Possible examples of Frofiteurs:

• VW $VOW (-3,38 %) BMW $BMW (-2,17 %) Daimler $DTG (-1,94 %)
• Siemens $SIE (-0,81 %)
• BASF $BAS (-2,28 %) Covestro $1COV (+0 %)
• SAP $SAP (+0,58 %) , ASML $ASML (-5,28 %)

➡️ Expected share price impetus from higher export revenues and capped production costs.

_________________________

🍖 2. agricultural & food sector in focus

The agricultural business is also becoming more closely networked on both sides:

• Tariffs on wine, oil, cheese, dairy products and luxury foods are being reduced or gradually created.
• EU producers will gain greater market access in South America; conversely, South American agricultural exports (e.g. beef, sugar) will have better access to the EU.

Possible beneficiaries:

• Nestlé $NESN (+1,15 %) Danone $BN (+0,1 %)
• Heineken $HEIA (-0,11 %) AB InBev $ABI (-0,98 %)
• FrieslandCampina $FCEPL

⚠️ However, critics point out that price pressure on local farmers* also arises and environmental risks can increase, for example due to cheaper imports.

_________________________

🚗 3. raw materials & energy: medium to long-term effects

Mercosur countries export large quantities of raw materials:

• Soy, sugar, coffee, ethanol, grain
• Brazil is also a major supplier of crude oil and minerals

One of the aims of the agreement is more stable commodity trade with fewer tariffs, which can influence commodity prices and move the shares of commodity and energy companies.

Possible beneficiaries:

• Vale $VALE3 (-5,24 %) Petrobras $PETR3 (+4,2 %)
• Bunge $BG (+3,11 %) , ADM $ADM (+1,54 %)

_________________________

🏦 4. finance & services sector

The agreement also facilitates:

• Market access for financial services
• Opening of telecom and transportation markets
• Opening of public procurement to EU suppliers

➡️ This could strengthen banks, insurers and logistics companies that operate across borders.

Possible beneficiaries:

• Allianz $ALV (-1 %) Deutsche Bank $DBK (-4,47 %)
• DHL/Deutsche Post $DHL (+1,07 %) Kuehne + Nagel $KNIN (-1,74 %)

_________________________

🔄 Short-term market risks

Not everything is automatically positive:

• 🇪🇺 Agricultural protests in Europe show resistance to cheap imports.
• Political uncertainties remain - many parliaments need to ratify.
• Sectors with low competitiveness could come under price pressure.

_________________________

📌 Conclusion

The Mercosur agreement could be an issue with far-reaching effects:

✅ Strong export industry gains new sales markets

✅ Agricultural and luxury food sector gains sales opportunities

✅ Financial and service sector benefits from market expansion

✅ Raw material exporting countries in South America could become more integrated

⚠️ At the same time, there are risks for local producers and price distortions that could have a regional impact on share prices

_________________________

Question for you: What is your opinion on the agreement? And in which sectors or listed companies do you see the biggest winners in the long term?

_________________________

Sources:

- 🌎🤝 Mercosur-Freihandelsabkommen zwischen EU & Mercosur unterzeichnet – größte Freihandelszone weltweit

- 💶📈 Wirtschaftliche Chancen für EU-Exporteure und Importeure durch Zollerleichterungen

- ⚙️🚗 Branchenanalysen mit Zollabbau-Effekten für Maschinen, Autos, Chemie etc.

- 🌾🥩 Agrar- und Rohstoff-Impakte durch neue Marktchancen und Quotenregelungen

Novo Nordisk 3.0% $NOVO B (-0,55 %) NVO

LVMH 2.0% $LVMH

Pernod Ricard 6.35% $RI (-0,47 %)

Imperial Brands 5.5% $IMB (+0,95 %)

BAT 6.2% $BATS (-1,48 %)

Sunrise Communications 8.00%

Nestle 4.05% $NESN (+1,15 %)

Roche 2.85% $ROG (-3,01 %)

Novartis 3.07% $NOVN (-0,67 %)

Shell 4.07% $SHEL (+1,73 %)

German Post 3.86% $DHL (+1,07 %)

Swisscom 3.75% $SCMN (+0,92 %)

German Telekom 3.52% $DTE (-0,64 %)

Strabag 2.72% $STR (-1,32 %)

Vonovia 4.82% $VNA (-0,63 %)

BASF 5.01% $BAS (-2,28 %)

Puma 2.8% $PUMA

Hannover Re 3.62% $HNR1 (-0,79 %)

Munich Re 3.8% $MUV2 (-1,26 %)

Allianz 4.00% $ALV (-1 %)

BP 5.76% $BP. (+2,63 %)

Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/1zt05UZlehInr81iaZMdY5?si=e676f0a812014943

YouTube

https://youtu.be/BpCIIJYfxHA

Appple Podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/125-20-europ%C3%A4ische-dividenden-aktien/id1695869891?i=1000744769342

I have looked at my portfolio review of 2025 and my start to 2026 - not just "how much", but above all: why and what I have learned from it. I am happy to share this with you and look forward to discussion & feedback and, above all, your views: what was the result and also your perception of your stock market year 2025 - and what set-up are you starting the new year with?

Time to reflect 🧘‍♂️

1) Change of mood at the end of 2024

After a rather sobering (for me) stock market year 2024, there was a clear turnaround in sentiment in November 24: on the day of Trump's election victory in Nov 24, the market jumped significantly (Dow +3.57 %, S&P 500 +2.53 %, Nasdaq +2.95 %). This made the "risk-on" narrative credible again - and you could see it in the behavior of many portfolios. At least in mine, if I'm honest with myself ;)

2) Q1/Spring 2025: Unusually Europe-friendly

The first few weeks of 2025 were indeed unusually Europe-heavy: in the first six weeks of 2025, the STOXX 600 was up >5.5%, while the S&P 500 was only up +2.7% in the same period.

This also became clear later in hindsight: in 2025, defense and banks were extremely strong drivers in Europe at times. I was also right in this upswing ($DHL (+1,07 %) , $GBF (-3,65 %) , $RIO (-0,64 %) ) but unfortunately also some disastrous ($NESN (+1,15 %) , $MC (-0,61 %) , $NKE (-1,76 %) ,$NOVO B (-0,55 %) ) decisions were made. Partly also trend- and community-driven -> yes, you are to blame ;)

3) Beginning of April: Bad times

Then came the break: The strong start to the year was literally "wiped out" in just a few sessions, partly due to the customs/trade war shock. YTD turned completely negative, and by April 7 the STOXX 600 was around 12% below the closing price on April 2. $TSLA (-2,04 %) and $NVDA (-2,56 %) purchases. I also $PEP (-1,76 %) I bought cheaply, but a real breakout is still a long way off.

4) Shortly afterwards: fireworks

Then a tailwind came back in the US from the middle/end of April, when the market repriced parts of the Trump escalation in the direction of "negotiations/de-escalation". The Donald kept a few election promises that were perhaps not quite official .-)

5) H2/late year: AI + interest rates as a "macro tailwind"

Towards the end of the year, the environment was then more strongly characterized by two factors: AI-driven risk assets and falling interest rates. It was an AI-driven rally, which also supported sentiment and inflows into US equity again.

And on the interest rate side: the Fed set the key interest rate at 3.50 % to 3.75 % in December after a further cut.

At the end of the year, the major benchmarks were also closer together again: STOXX 600 +16.66 % in 2025, S&P 500 ~+17 %.

6) Golden times 🥇🏅

Then there was the beautiful gold (u.W.). 2025 was a real exclamation mark: spot gold was up around 66% over the year (according to Reuters, the strongest increase since 1979).

Silver was even more extreme at around +168 % per year.

I have already written about gold in more detail here on getquin - if you are interested in the topic, you can find the article in my profile.

Personal performance 2025

• Internal rate of return: approx. +10 %
• TTWROR: approx. -33 %
• Dividend yield: approx. 1.3 % p.a.

The figures confirm what I described above: in my opinion, I made very good operational decisions (realized profits, used tax aspects, built up cash flow). At the same time, the TTWROR shows quite clearly that the portfolio structure was too volatile and too strongly growth/trend-oriented in the meantime. Too often, I have taken the "falling knife".

Before the turn of the year, I invested in $NVDA (-2,56 %) , $TSLA (-2,04 %) , $GBF (-3,65 %) and $DHL (+1,07 %) - each with positive returns - for the following reasons:

• Utilize saver's allowance
• Reduce tech-heaviness
• Cash generation (you can read why below)

Starting point Jan 2026:

Brief overview of the 2026 start setup

Asset mix

• Individual shares: 71.4 %
• ETFs: 16.0 %
• Gold: 9.2 %
• Crypto: 3.4 %

Regional breakdown

• North America: approx. 45.7 %
• Europe developed: approx. 26.0
• Rest of the world (including EM/Asia/Australasia): approx. 22.5 %

Sector structure

• Financial services: 20.5 %
• Consumer goods (cyclical): 19,2 %
• Consumer staples: 15.7
• Information technology: 14.8
• Materials: 7.9
• Healthcare: 4.7

Start to the new year

Parallel to the sales at the end of 2025, I reallocated or increased my holdings in January, including in $O (+0,36 %), $VNA (-0,63 %) and $ZAL (-0,42 %)- with the logic:

• Strengthen cash flow/dividend components
• Turnaround opportunities as a limited admixture
• Reduce volatility in the portfolio

Why I am thinking more defensively in 2026

Next week, the purchase of an apartment on beautiful Lake Tegernsee 🏝️ will be notarized. This is a step into a completely new asset class for me, as it's my first property of my own. - In addition to construction financing, it will of course also be a liquidity issue over the next few weeks.

I may make a separate post about this, perhaps some of you are also currently facing this step?

I can mentally cope well with drawdowns. But: being able to bear risk does not automatically mean having to bear risk.

My portfolio should fit in with this new phase of my life.

What I will do differently in 2026

Because a new asset class will be added to my portfolio in 2026 with the purchase of an apartment, I want to position my portfolio more defensively in future - without completely foregoing opportunities for returns : risk. Otherwise we would be completely wrong on the stock market :)

1) ETF core should dominate

I want my portfolio to be dominated by my ETFs in future. My target scenario is therefore

• 60% of the deposits via a savings plan in my 4 core ETFs ($VWRL (-1,61 %) , $COMM (+4,17 %) , $WSML (-2,4 %) , $IEMS (-1,78 %) ).
• 30 % stocks
• 10 % commodities
• Play money: crypto, certificates, pennies (weighting < 5%)

Important! This is a start-in-2026 setup

Of course, as always in life, a plan is there to be thrown overboard - so you have to wait and see how assets perform in the year ahead and reassess regularly.

2) Stocks yes - but with more discipline

Turnaround/opportunity stocks and trends remain part of my approach, but clearly limited. I want these positions to be what they should be again: An addition, not a foundation.

I will reduce (basic) consumption and strengthen healthcare. And tech?

3) Tech: more controlled

Tech will remain a driver of returns in 2025 - but I want to build it up again in a controlled manner after my sales. I will monitor the trend from a distance for the first few weeks and possibly months and bet on corrections. You can't do without it - as you can see from the Mag-7 performance in 2025:

• $GOOGL (-0,59 %) : +65,3 %
• $NVDA (-2,56 %) : +38,9 %
• $MSFT (-0,48 %) : +14,7 %
• $META (-2,49 %) : +12,7 %
• $TSLA (-2,04 %) : +11,4 %
• $AAPL (-1 %) : +8,6 %
• $AMZN (-2,34 %) : +5,2 %

On that note, happy new year!

$VWRL (-1,61 %)
$EWG2 (+0,5 %)
$O (+0,36 %)
$PEP (-1,76 %)
$MSFT (-0,48 %)
$P911 (-2,59 %)
$BLK (-8,13 %)
$NKE (-1,76 %)
$RIO (-0,64 %)
$MC (-0,61 %)
$NOVO B (-0,55 %)
$NESN (+1,15 %)
$ZAL (-0,42 %)
$COMM (+4,17 %)
$IEMS (-1,78 %)
$BTC (+0,05 %)
$ETH (+0,17 %)
$XRP (+0,19 %)
$PEPE (+0,62 %)

After the good run in the technology sector, more and more analysts are now talking about a tech correction. And sector rotation, the last few days and weeks have already shown that the pharma sector is picking up again. That's why I've already introduced you to some of my favorites here.

But in recent days, the transportation and logistics sector has been mentioned again and again.

Der globale Transport- und Logistikmarkt wird im Jahr 2025 ein Volumen von 6529 Milliarden US-Dollar erreichen und bis 2035 auf 10444 Milliarden US-Dollar anwachsen, bei einer geschätzten jährlichen Wachstumsrate von 4,81% von 2026 bis 2035

Diese Prognosen deuten darauf hin, dass der Transport und Logistik-Markt in den kommenden Jahren weiterhin wachsen wird, beeinflusst von Faktoren wie der Globalisierung, dem Wachstum des E-Commerce und technologischen Fortschritten

Among others, stocks like

• UPS $UPS (-1,98 %)
• DHL $DHL (+1,07 %)

or a great value such as

• $ODFL (-9,35 %) Old Dominion

are often mentioned

However, some people know that I am not happy with single-digit profit growth. That's why I've just taken another dive into the engine room.

Or rather in the back of my head, in which I am still hiding

$XPO (-7,6 %)
XPO in the back of my mind.

And what did I find when I looked at it, double-digit earnings growth.

And even a tenbagger over the next 10 years, although it was in bear territory last year (consolidation).

Share price
Profit growth %
P/E RATIO
PEG

2026 2027 2026 2027

Old Domin +7.07 +13.34 31.05 27.00 +2.07

DHL +5.05 +14.57 12.36 11.12 +1.11

UPS +6.59 +11.80 14.15 12.58 +6.89

XPO +47,26 +26,28 33,61 26,14 +1,18

My dears, with such nice growth rates, investors should certainly wake the share from its bearish slumber soon.

What is your opinion here?

$XPO (-7,6 %)

XPOInc. is a provider of freight transportation services. The company transports goods through its customers' supply chains in North America and Europe. The company operates in two segments: North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) and European Transportation. The North American LTL segment provides shippers with geographically dense and day-definite domestic and cross-border services to the United States, Mexico, Canada and the Caribbean. It also includes the manufacture of trailers. The European Transportation segment offers a range of services such as truckload, LTL, truck brokerage, managed transportation, last mile, freight forwarding and multimodal solutions, including road/rail and road/short sea combinations. The company serves a customer base in the consumer, commercial and industrial sectors. The company offers XPO Smart, a proprietary suite of intelligent tools and analytics that self-adapts from location to location to increase productivity across all LTL service centers.

XPO Logisitcs - Economic recovery ensures strong prospects for logistics service provider!

Business driver: XPO Logistics (XPO) has established a strong position in the LTL (Less than Truckload) Logistics segment in the transportation and logistics sector in the core US market and is also strongly positioned in Europe, particularly in France and the UK, but also in Belgium and Turkey. Thanks to its focus on the LTL segment, where smaller freight volumes are bundled, XPO Logisitcs is a sought-after logistics partner for retailers and corporate customers from various industries.

Market capitalization in EUR

13.76 billion

Total number of shares in million

117.38

Turnover (bn)

2022 7,72

2023 7,74

2024 8,07

2025 8,11

2026 8,43

Net profit (bn)

2022 0,67

2023 0,19

2024 0,39

2025 0,44

2026 0,53

P/E RATIO

2023 53

2024 39

2025 39

2026 32

Investor Day Presentation