God favours the bold. And optimists love longer.
lets see where $ASML (+2,41 %) and $ASML (+2,41 %) are by end of the week…
2x ASML for 671,4€
13x Amazon for 181,00€
29x Metaplanet for 10,10€
opinions?
ASML
Stock
Stock
ISIN: NL0010273215
Ticker: ASML
NL0010273215
ASML
Price
Debate sobre ASML
Puestos
477
3D·
New strategy
Hello everyone,
I have been thinking and considering for some time now. After my portfolio presentation, I looked again and thought about how and which strategy I want to pursue exactly.
Here is my first approach for the new strategy:
📊 60% Core - ETF savings plans
$IWDA (+0,41 %) -> 25 %
$VHYL (+0,45 %) -> 15 %
$DGIT (+0,83 %) -> 20 %
🧭 30 % satellite savings plan
$MSFT (+0,2 %) -> 10 %
$KO (-0,06 %) -> 10%
$PEP (+0,55 %) -> 5%
$ASML (+2,41 %) ->5 %
🎯 10% opportunity satellites - savings plan
$NVO (+0,91 %) -> 5%
$BTC (+1,26 %) -> 2,5 %
$ARCA (-3,7 %) -> 2,5%
What do you think of this setup? I would let the current shares continue to run and sell them at a profit when the opportunity arises.
This would be my second attempt to build a proper portfolio. My budget is not that big but I am making the best of it. I am open to suggestions and ideas. If you know a better setup then just post it in the comments. 😊
I'm still relatively at the beginning so please be forgiving 😅.
99
28 Comentarios
Very boring overall, but if that's the way you want it, then it's ok. Do you have any arguments for the individual stocks you mentioned? Why Pepsi, for example? What is the opportunity with Novo? And what is this -99% stock in the end? I also find a digitalization ETF difficult. Especially because the world indices are already mostly tech anyway. So if you want to go the boring route, just go for the classic world ETF, the other stuff doesn't make sense to me. But at 31, you could actually take a bit more risk..... You should only ever invest what you don't need anyway. Or you can do it partly. However, I think it's usually a shame and a waste of time to go for ETFs and dividend stocks, but that's just my opinion.
•
33
•
1Semana·
ETF-DIY Share #11: ASML| Valuation & analysis in a 17-point check
As part of my ETF DIY project, I analyzed $ASML (+2,41 %) analyzed them using my self-developed valuation system:
Moat: 5/5
- Market position: +
- Uniqueness / differentiability: +
- Switching costs: +
- Technological advantage: +
- Brand loyalty: +
Growth: 3/5
- Turnover & profit: -
- Scalability: +
- Industry trends: +
- Ability to innovate: +
- Geographic expansion / penetration: -
Risk: 2/5
- Regulatory & geopolitical: -
- Market risks: -
- Competitive situation: +
- Balance sheet quality: +
- Sales diversification: -
Dividend: 1/1
- Stable dividend
Faith: 0/1
- Monopolists always have a lot to lose and very little to gain.
Total: 11/17
- ASML is saved with a factor of 3.
If you are not yet familiar with my system and the ETF-DIY project - just take a look at my profile.
The complete analysis and my thoughts on it can also be found on YouTube:
33
4 Comentarios
1Semana
above you write asml below visa. what is correct now? 😆
•
11
•
2Semana·
ASML your opinion
How do you see the current situation regarding $ASML (+2,41 %) ? Do you think it is still worth getting in, as the company is actually quite future-proof
What is your opinion?
1010
6 Comentarios
2Semana
A long-term position for me. I bought first.
•
1313
•
3Semana·
✨Investment Analysis: ASML Holding NV (ASML) – Navigating Geopolitical Storms with EUV Dominance
💡 Core Investment Thesis
ASML holds a near-monopoly in EUV lithography, making it indispensable for advanced AI chips and semiconductor innovation. Despite geopolitical turbulence and tariff uncertainty, its record €63bn order backlog and technological moat position it for long-term growth. However, a 21% valuation premium and China exposure (25% of sales) demand cautious optimism amid trade tensions.
📊 Financial Health & Performance
Q1 2025 Highlights
- Revenue: €7.7bn (in line with guidance), driven by robust EUV system sales (€3.2bn of €5.7bn net system sales).
- Profitability: Gross margin of 54% (above expectations), net income of €2.4bn (ROE: 55.62%).
- Cash Flow: Operating cash flow of €11.36bn (ttm), though free cash flow dipped to -€475m due to customer prepayment timing.
- Shareholder Returns:
- Dividend of €6.40/share for 2024 (+4.9% YoY), yielding 0.96%.
- €2.7bn share buybacks executed in Q1 2025.
2025 Outlook
- Full-year revenue guidance maintained at €30–35bn, contingent on AI demand and tariff impacts.
- Q2 2025 forecast: Sales of €7.2–7.7bn, gross margin of 50–53% (pressured by tariff costs).
🌍 Governmental & Legislative Catalysts/Risks
Tailwinds
- AI Chip Boom: Surging demand for high-performance chips fuels EUV adoption (e.g., High NA systems for 1.5nm nodes).
- CHIPS Act Subsidies: Indirectly boosts ASML’s sales via U.S. fab expansions (e.g., TSMC’s Arizona plant).
Headwinds
- U.S. Tariffs: Potential 20% duty on EU semiconductor equipment threatens cost pass-through to customers. CEO Christophe Fouquet warns tariffs create "macroeconomic uncertainty" and may push 2025 revenue to the lower end of guidance.
- China Export Curbs: 15% of sales exposed to China; further restrictions could reduce revenue by €4.5bn.
- EU Regulatory Costs: Compliance with the Digital Markets Act may increase operational expenses.
💷 Dividends & Shareholder Returns
- Dividend Growth: Consistent increases (21% CAGR since 2019), with a sustainable payout ratio of 28.53%.
- Capital Allocation: Prioritising €6bn/year buybacks (2022–2025 programme) alongside R&D investment in High NA technology.
- Forward Yield: 0.96% – modest but growing, supported by €9.1bn cash reserves.
📈 Growth Projections & Valuation
2025–2030 Outlook
- Short Term (2025):
- Base case: €772.66 (3.4% upside); bull case: €970 (+30% upside) if tariffs ease.
- Catalysts: High NA system adoption (5 shipped in Q1), AI-driven capacity expansions.
- Long Term (2030):
- Price target: €1,690–€2,516 (120–237% upside) as EUV becomes standard for sub-1nm chips.
Valuation Metrics
Metric ASML Sector Avg
Share Price €747.07 –
P/E (TTM) 29.62x 25x
Price/Sales 8.39x 2.5x
Analyst Target €904.40 (avg) Range: €578–€1,100
Rationale: Premium pricing reflects ASML’s irreplaceable EUV technology, but tariffs could compress margins by 500bps.
⚠️ Key Risks
Trade War Escalation: 20% revenue exposed to U.S.-China tensions; tariff hikes may erode 2025 EPS by 8–10%.
Execution Delays: Customers (e.g., Intel, TSMC) postponing equipment orders due to semiconductor overcapacity.
Valuation Sensitivity: High P/E vulnerable if AI demand slows or High NA adoption underperforms.
Regulatory Overreach: Stricter EU export controls on lithography tools to China.
🎯 Investment Recommendation
Accumulate on Dips Below €700 (3–5-year horizon):
- Catalysts: U.S.-EU tariff resolution (potential late 2025), AI capex surge, High NA margin expansion.
- ROI Scenarios:
- Base Case (12 months): 21% upside (€904.40).
- Bull Case (2030): 20% CAGR if €2.5tn semiconductor market materialises.
- Entry Strategy: Buy below 200-DMA (€738.12); hedge with put options during tariff announcements.
Bottom Line: ASML is a foundational bet on AI and semiconductor sovereignty, but its premium valuation requires geopolitical vigilance. The €63bn backlog provides resilience, while tariff clarity could unlock significant upside. Monitor Q2 2025 bookings for demand confirmation.
Is ASML’s 29.62x P/E justified given its EUV monopoly and 55.62% ROE?
How will U.S. tariffs reshape Europe’s semiconductor ambitions?
Can dividend growth offset low yield for income-focused portfolios?
Data as of 29 May 2025 | British English conventions applied ("labour", "favourable", "centred")
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Conduct your own due diligence. Past performance ≠ future results.
1313
4Semana·
My investable universe
When I‘m screening markets for my investable universe I look for high-quality compounders with:
- Strong and consistent capital returns (ROCE)
- High and stable profitability (gross, operating, and FCF margins)
- Steady revenue growth over time
- Large market capitalization (mature, established companies)
In detail I’m screening for:
- Market Cap: at least $ 10B
- ROCE 3-Year Avg: ≥ 25%
- ROCE 10-Year Avg: ≥ 25%
- Gross Margin 3-Year Avg: ≥ 50%
- FCF Margin 3-Year Avg: ≥ 20%
- Operating Margin 10-Year Avg: ≥ 25%
- Revenue per share CAGR 3-Year: ≥ 5%
- Revenue per share CAGR 10-Year: ≥ 5%
- FCF per share CAGR 3-Year: ≥ 10%
- FCF per share CAGR 10-Year: ≥ 10%
- Consistency/stability of earnings (from max. 1.0): ≥ 0.8
- No more than 75% revenue exposure to one single country/market (eg. USA)
Here are my current holdings:
33
Valores en tendencia
Principales creadores de la semana
<contenedor>Datos LSX</contenedor> · Datos financieros de FactSet