Partial sale $MSFT (-0,07 %)
$NVDA (-1,17 %)

Purchase $ESLT (-1,37 %)
$BATS (-0,58 %)

In today's video, I would like to take another look at the British American Tobacco share. The share analysis looks at the 5-year bottoming out of the highest dividend-paying shares in the consumer goods sector. I also show the current financial data and discuss the current valuation as well as the technical chart support.

How do you see the $BATS (-0,58 %) ?

https://youtu.be/GhnuTW-SP_E?si=NxGP3nvKJNVI4sUN

$BATS (-0,58 %)

Unfortunately, I missed the chance to buy BAT. The opportunity will certainly come again soon.

It's now at 42, so in my opinion buying now would be a bit pointless.

What do you think and when is a good time for you to buy?

(Edit: I'm a bit ambivalent😝 to wait or not to wait)

Let's wait and see how it goes today, but an important point would already be marked and then sustainably broken upwards for the first time...

$BATS (-0,58 %) 👍🏻

Velo Plus $BATS (-0,58 %) has achieved a ~12% share of the Modern Oral US market within a few months. This is expected to grow to over 50 billion dollars in the US by 2033, which corresponds to sales of 6 billion and profits of 4-5 billion, assuming the market share remains the same.

British American Tobacco $BATS (-0,58 %) announced that sales development in the first half of the year was slightly above previous forecasts.

The Group now expects sales growth of 1-2% for the 2025 financial year, supporting adjusted operating profit growth of 1.5-2.5%. The company's previous sales growth forecast was around 1%.

Tadeu Marroco, Chief Executive, said: "2025 is a year of development and, as previously mentioned, we expect our performance to be in the second half of the year, mainly due to the launch of new category innovations in key markets from the middle of the year. In the US, I am very pleased that we expect sales and profit growth again in the first half of the year and in fiscal 2025."

$BATS (-0,58 %) has published its half-year trading update. HY1 is somewhat boring, as the new products GLO HILO and VUSE Ultra will only be launched on the broad market in HY2.

Velo Plus is performing very strongly, while VUSE has not yet been able to stabilize due to the difficult market situation.

- Sales growthSales are slightly above the previous forecast, with expected growth of 1-2 % for the year as a whole, which supports adjusted operating profit growth of 1.5-2.5 %.

- USA: Return to sales and profit growth in the first half and full year, driven by strong performance in the tobacco business (Combustibles) and excellent results from Velo Plus.

- New categories: Low single-digit sales growth in the first half, accelerating to mid-single-digit growth for the full year, driven by innovation in key markets from mid-year. Velo shows strong global growth, while illegal vapor products in the US and Canada impact performance.

- RegionsStrong performance in AME (Africa, Middle East, Europe); APMEA (Asia Pacific) suffers from tax increases and regulatory challenges in Bangladesh and Australia.

- Cash flow and capital allocationStrong cash generation with a cash flow conversion rate of over 90%. Target is to reduce debt to 2.0-2.5x adjusted net assets/EBITDA by end 2026. Dividend policy remains progressive, share buybacks will be increased to GBP 1.1bn in 2025.

- Strategic focus: Quality growth through investment in most profitable markets, supported by partial monetization of ITC share for more financial flexibility.

- Outlook 2026: Confidence to achieve the medium-term target of 3-5% sales growth and 4-6% adjusted operating profit growth.

Product categories:

1. Combustibles: Return to growth in the USA, stable market shares despite declining industry volumes (-9 %). Strong performance of brands such as Natural American Spirit and Lucky Strike.

2. Velo (Modern Oral)Strong growth with market share gains (+550 bps in the US to 11.9% and triple-digit sales growth). Leading position in AME, especially in Scandinavia, the UK and Poland.

3. glo (Heated Tobacco)Challenging environment in Japan, but encouraging results from glo Hilo in Serbia. Planned launch in key markets from the second half of the year.

4. Vuse (Vapour): continued global leadership, but declines due to illegal products in the USA and Canada. Introduction of Vuse Ultra should improve performance in the second half of the year.

Technical forecast for 2025:

- Global tobacco industry volume: decline of approx. 2%.

- Sales growth: 1-2 % (H1 and full year, at constant exchange rates).

- New category growth: Low single digits in H1, mid single digits in full year.

- Adjusted operating profit growth: 1.5-2.5%, with an H2 weighting.

- Exchange rate effects: Transactional headwind of approx. 1.5%, translational headwind of approx. 4%.

- Net financing costs: c. GBP 1.8 bn.

- Capital expenditure: Approx. GBP 650 million.

British American Tobacco $BATS (-0,58 %) has completed another billion-dollar sale of shares in Indian consumer goods giant ITC, selling a total of 313 million shares at a price of 413 Indian rupees each, Reuters reports.

This corresponds to a discount of 4.8 percent on Tuesday's closing price and proceeds of around 1.5 billion US dollars.

Despite the partial sale, BAT remains the largest shareholder in ITC, according to LSEG. The transaction was accompanied by Goldman Sachs and Citigroup.

Parallel to the sale of shares, BAT announced an increase in its current share buyback program by 200 million pounds to 1.1 billion pounds (1.49 billion US dollars).

According to the company, the transaction will have no impact on the outlook for the current financial year.

Stocked up a little again today with:

• $BATS (-0,58 %) / $BTI (-0,58 %) - Dividend machine in the tobacco sector
• $SCHD - solid US dividend ETF
• $SPYI - Premium strategy on top 💸

Goal: further increase cash flow, expand dividends & options step by step.

What was on your list today? 📈👇

I asked myself this question some time ago. Saving, investing, building up assets - all well and good. But what is it actually for? What is the goal?

At some point, the answer was clear to me: financial freedom.

Not because I never want to work again. On the contrary - I like working. But I don't want to have to anymore. I want to be able to decide for myself how I use my time without my income depending on it.

That's why I've opted for a clear focus on dividend ETFs. $TDIV (+1,23 %)
$VHYL (+1,36 %) decided on dividend ETFs.

They provide me with a regular, predictable income - a step towards independence. This cash flow currently allows me to work part-time and at the same time build a self-employment that is based on my interests - not on a fixed employment contract.

I am fully aware that if I were to invest purely rationally and with a focus on returns, e.g. only in the $VWRL (+1,33 %) the path to absolute financial freedom might be shorter.

But let's be honest - who knows whether you will ever reach your goal? Health, life circumstances, fate - there is no guarantee for later.

So why not live a little more freedom today instead of putting everything off until "someday"?

My portfolio reflects precisely this conviction - long-term focus, but with ongoing benefits. And to be honest: I simply enjoy investing.

That's why, in addition to solid dividend payers, I also have a few positions for gambling $BATS (-0,58 %)
$GOOGL (-3,03 %) - Shitcoins $CHZ (+1,52 %)
$MANA (+2,23 %)
$SOL (+2,1 %) included.

What do you think?