Hello does anyone know when the price will be announced or what the price of the stock dividend is from $VNA (+0,1 %) ? Thanks ☺️

The first quarter of 2025 is over. In March, real assets recorded declines, both in equities and ETFs and especially in cryptocurrencies. The markets have become increasingly volatile. While many are panicking, I have been enjoying the first signs of spring, hiking and continuing to winter bathe diligently.

For the past month of March 2025, I present the following points:

➡️ SHARES

➡️ ETFS

➡️ DISTRIBUTIONS

➡️ CASHBACK

➡️ AFTER-PURCHASES

➡️ P2P CREDITS

➡️ CRYPTO

➡️ AND OTHER?

➡️ OUTLOOK

➡️ Shares

There was a considerable setback in March, and not just in equities. The reason for this is the customs issue, on which I have already formulated my thesis, which many believe to be correct. To summarize briefly: Markets are being depressed to get investors into bonds, which lowers bond yields and allows US debt to be refinanced at a lower interest rate. After the refinancing of short-term US government bonds, the tariffs are put into perspective and the next upswing follows, which Trump can boast about. Whether this assumption is correct remains to be seen. However, it would make sense in the long term to slash US spending. Even if the D.O.G.E. does a good job, you can't cut everything without incurring the displeasure of the population.

A look at the depot shows the front-runner $AVGO (+3,33 %) and its companion $NFLX (+1,06 %) both currently only 150% up, despite a significant setback. I am unimpressed by this development, as the capital market is always facing worse times, which will be followed by better ones. According to André Kostolany, it is now the "shaky hands" that are significantly triggering the sell-off. Yes, change your perspective: the red sign in your portfolio is irrelevant, now is the time to buy more. Enormous overvaluations in tech stocks have been reduced and they may now be available at a fairer price. There are also attractive defensive value stocks on offer, ideal for a dividend portfolio.

Second and fourth place in my individual share portfolio are still occupied by $WMT (-0,53 %) and $SAP (+1,35 %) . Walmart can now prove that it acts as a stable anchor in the portfolio even in bad times. In sixth place is a stock that I did not expect to be in the top 10. Like me, many of you have shares in $WM (-0,97 %) but the stock I am looking for is its competitor: $RSG (-1,57 %) . I have been watching the rise of this stock even before the pressure from Trump and I am happy about it. This is an example of a defensive stock. Garbage collection is necessary and Republic Services, like Waste Management, will literally turn garbage into gold for shareholders 50 years from now. Anyone complaining about their portfolio being down 50% probably has too much tech and too little defensive. My overall portfolio currently stands at around -12%. That's OK in the current macro environment.

Which brings us to the subject of performance: $NKE0 and $DHR (-0,15 %) returned around -39% at the end of March.

➡️ ETFs

They are also recording significant losses. It is important to remain calm and continue investing. Such phases are part of the game. I will not repeat further details.

➡️ Distributions

In March, I received 31 distributions on 15 payout days. I am grateful for this additional income stream. Everyone should build up such additional income.

This time, the distributions from my three large ETFs were not made on March 31, but in the first few days of April. This means that there should theoretically be 34 distributions. Numerous corrections and cancellations of dividends from REITs were not taken into account. With $O (-0,6 %) , $OHI (-0,14 %) , $LTC (+0,36 %) and $STAG (+0,22 %) there were therefore some cancellations and new dividend distributions. Although this was a major bureaucratic effort, it was usually a cause for celebration. This is because the REITs initially distribute dividends from current net income. If there are then corrections in the following year, it is determined that a distribution is also made from the already taxed retained earnings. This subsequently reduces the company's tax burden and I have noticed that I pay less capital gains tax and solidarity surcharge. So more cash in my pocket for reinvestment.

➡️ Cashback

In March, I received a small amount of income from an expense report, which I invested directly in my custody account. More on this under subsequent purchases.

➡️ Subsequent purchases

The additional purchases were financed from the expense report and, above all, from the bonus paid out by my employer. I am grateful for this, as my employer is not doing well at the moment.

I made numerous additional purchases in several ETFs that are in my small old portfolios. I invested smaller sums $GGRP (+0,75 %) , $JEGP (-0,25 %) , $SPYW (+0,29 %) , $FGEQ (+0,29 %) and $SPYD (+0,2 %) and bought a larger sum in shares of the $IWDP. On the last Friday in March, I checked my portfolio and realized that, despite careful use of the surplus, there was more cash left than I had expected. I therefore made a small additional purchase in the $VNA (+0,1 %) . For me, Vonovia (like the REITs) is a kind of hedge against my own rising rent.

➡️ P2P loans

With my last P2P platform, Mintos, there were no interest or redemption payments. I still intend to withdraw all funds where released. I would even accept a full write-off to get out of the platform. The remaining amount is no longer relevant to me.

➡️ Crypto

Crypto investors continued to experience significant volatility in March. The double top predicted by some does not seem to be materializing and the indicators do not currently point to a steep rise. I am studying the charting and the macro environment for crypto, although I still have a lot to learn here. Patience and calm are still required. I am sticking to my cycle strategy, the macro situation confirms me, so there is no need for me to take any action.

➡️ And what else?

I'm currently deepening my knowledge of AI. The posts on my Instagram channel that I published in March (and others that will follow in April) were created with the help of AI. I explained my approaches, beliefs about finance and the frugal lifestyle, and my goals to AI. The AI then created suggestions for Instagram posts, including prompts and allowing for a week break at the end of the month.

There is still a lot for me to learn. I am using AI more and more intensively and deeply in my professional and private life. While colleagues are happy that an AI can write emails for them, I use it much more extensively, for example to have technical content and its effects on departments and companies explained to me at work or to have economic relationships explained to me in my private life. In addition to ChatGPT, I particularly like Grok by X, as this AI always asks questions and thus enables a fluid conversation. The AI doesn't just reproduce facts, but also evaluates my ideas and classifies them, for example whether I should already use part of my nest egg to buy more quality stocks at favorable prices. Her suggestion was perhaps to wait until after the refinancing of short-term US government debt, when there might be less downward volatility in the market. This recommendation is based on my thesis mentioned above.

March was also a month of fasting for me, not for religious reasons, but because I want to and always intend to. I like to use the time after fasting to change my habits, adjust my diet and vary my sports units and routines. For me, this is particularly easy after fasting - the time afterwards generally feels like a new beginning.

➡️ Outlook

In April we will continue to see negative signs in the portfolio. I have now placed a limit order, which I hope will be triggered. The annual electricity bill is also due. I'm curious to see how much will be returned, the refund will certainly go into the custody account. It will also become clear whether I will increase my discount due to higher electricity costs. Until then!

Links:

Social media links can be found in my profile, you can also take a look at the Instagram version of my review.

Customs war special: winners, losers, outlook

Subscribe to the podcast to end the tariff war.

Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5Cr722K3NaLxspBot2mBNM?si=eORJfrQJR3eDLplP35EYxw

YouTube

https://youtu.be/QOXd_qExpKc

Apple Podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/83-zollkrieg-spezial-gewinner-verlierer-ausblick/id1695869891?i=1000702108083

#trump
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#zölle
#tariffs
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$VNA (+0,1 %)
$META (+0,54 %)

Today I would like to give you my impressions of the conference call to present Vonovia's ($VNA (+0,1 %)) annual results for 2024.

Rolf Buch, CEO, began by emphasizing that the current situation is characterized by uncertainty, particularly due to the German government's announcement of massive investments in the military and infrastructure. He outlined Vonovia's development in three phases: a growth phase after the IPO, supported by low interest rates, followed by a defensive phase after the war in Ukraine and the rise in interest rates, in which the rating and balance sheet were protected. The company is now at the beginning of a third phase, a less capital-intensive return to growth, particularly in the high-margin non-rental business.

On a positive note, Buch emphasized that the planned investment programme also offers opportunities for modernization and new construction in the areas of climate protection, energy and housing. The aim is to react prudently, learn from the experience of recent crises and maintain the strategic priorities of rating protection, debt management and long-term growth. There may be delays in individual growth projects, which are more capital-intensive, but the company is prepared to act decisively if necessary. Overall, however, the business model is robust, the market fundamentals are strong and the operating business is more solid than ever. It is encouraging that the data on property valuations shows stabilization and even slight price growth for condominiums.

Transaction volumes also picked up in the fourth quarter and a survey by Ernst & Young shows that investors continue to focus on residential real estate. Despite rent regulation, demand for residential space is enormous, which ensures solid rental growth in the long term. With the current investments of around one billion euros, rental growth is expected to be around 4%, which could even rise to 6-7% by 2028 if increased to two billion euros. The rental business will remain the core business, accounting for over 90% of EBITDA in 2024. The non-rental business is expected to grow significantly by 30% by 2028, while overall EBITDA growth of around 8% and EBT growth in the mid-single-digit range are targeted.

Philip Grosse then presented the details of the 2024 annual results. Organic rental growth of 4.1% and EBT at the upper end of the forecast were achieved for 2024. Operating free cash flow had increased significantly as cash generation was a priority. The dividend is set to increase by 36% to EUR 1.22 per share. After disposals of almost 8 billion euros in the last two years, the focus is now on the sale of the remaining non-core business of 1.6 billion euros. The Value-Add segment has increased significantly, but includes a one-off effect. The increased financing costs had a negative impact on the financial result. The value of the portfolio is 23.2 times the net cold rent or a gross yield of 4.3%, which appears reasonable compared to new-build prices for owner-occupied apartments.

The forecasts for 2025 and the medium-term targets up to 2028 were confirmed, with the expected rental growth of over 4% reflecting the planned increase in investment.

In the subsequent Q&A, the analysts asked various questions.

Valerie Jacob from Bernstein asked about the lower dividend compared to the previous formula and how the dividend policy should be assessed in the future. Philip Grosse explained that the prioritization of cash generation in recent years and the increasing investments had limited a higher payout, but that shareholders would benefit from the profitable investments in the long term. Rolf Buch added that the development of interest rates, the specific structure of government programs (in particular the funds for the environment and housing) and the development of real estate values were being closely monitored and that investment decisions would be adapted to the changed framework conditions.

Charles Boissier from UBS asked about the flexibility of the strategic plan in the face of rising capital costs and under what circumstances there would be a renewed focus on cash preservation. Rolf Buch replied that less capital-intensive growth initiatives could be prioritized and capital-intensive projects such as new construction could be scaled back if interest rates rise. With regard to the expected deterioration in the interest coverage ratio (ICR), Philip Grosse stated that there was no pressure in the short to medium term due to the staggered debt maturities and the current margin to the internal target value of 3.5x.

Jonathan Kownator from Goldman Sachs addressed the uncertainties regarding government investments and their potential impact on Vonovia as well as the discrepancy between the potential for rental growth through investments and the communicated forecast. Rolf Buch explained that initial information on subsidies for residential construction was available, but that the exact structure was still unclear. The rental growth forecast may be conservative, as investments are being made gradually and the full potential will only become apparent in the future.

Thomas Neuhold from Kepler Cheuvreux asked about the increased taxes and the long-term tax rate as well as the plans and measures to reduce construction costs in the sales business. Philip Grosse explained that the taxes reported in the operating cash flow related to the core business and that the increase was due to higher sales volumes. In the long term, a tax rate of less than 10% of EBITDA is expected. With regard to the reduction in construction costs, it is still too early to make concrete statements, but various initiatives are being worked on and political support is hoped for.

Veronique Meertens from Van Lanschot Kempen enquired about the current status of the discussions surrounding the rent freeze and about concrete steps to expand new business areas. Rolf Buch was optimistic that the rent freeze in its current form would be reconsidered and adapted. In terms of new business areas, he sees great potential in working with long-term investors, particularly in the infrastructure sector, as their investment horizon and Vonovia's cash flow profile are a good match.

Manuel Martin from ODDO BHF wanted to assess the regional strategy in the three countries (Germany, Sweden, Austria) and the portfolio's sensitivity to migration. Rolf Buch highlighted the relative strength of Sweden, but emphasized the similar stability and excess demand in all three markets. With regard to migration, he does not expect any negative effects on demand, as illegal immigrants are initially housed in camps and legal immigration is more likely to increase due to labor shortages.

Conclusion:

The Vonovia analysts' conference conveyed a picture of a company that is well positioned despite a challenging economic and political environment. The stabilization of real estate values and the confirmed growth targets give confidence. The uncertainties caused by the government's investment plans are taken seriously, but are also seen as an opportunity. The management emphasized the flexibility to react to changing conditions and to consistently pursue the strategic priorities. The significant dividend increase is a positive signal for shareholders, even if the retained liquidity is to be used for future growth and stability. Overall, Vonovia appears to be well equipped to master the current challenges and grow in the long term.

$VNA (+0,1 %) recently presented exciting business figures for 2024.

-Significant increase in the dividend to € 1.22

-Positive start to 2025 heralds growth phase. Adj. EBITDA expected at € 2.70 to 2.80 billion

-Outlook until 2028: EBITDA growth of around 30% targeted

The price range of EUR 25 to EUR 23.50 could be very interesting for anti-cyclical investors.

Vonovia has entered difficult waters due to the rapid turnaround in interest rates triggered by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, which led to very high inflation. The ECB's interest rate cuts have already begun and are likely to continue, albeit slowly.

Click here for the brief analysis:

https://investment-traders.com/kurzanalysen/vonovia-aktie-deutschlands-grosstes-immobilienunternehmen-jetzt-vor-dem-turnaround

Could Vonovia $VNA (+0,1 %) now a good buy for Buy&Hold?

Dividend yield at the current price is over 4.5% with room for improvement.

Housing remains scarce due to expensive new construction and immigration. A good situation for portfolio holders like Vonovia.

In fact, 3000 residential units are to be built again, whereas new construction had previously been halted.

Interest rate situation difficult to assess.

Populism against Vonovia and co. is often used for election campaign purposes, but it makes no sense to take active action, as the state itself cannot provide housing more effectively.

If so, the state (e.g. the federal state of Berlin) buys hundreds of residential units from Vonovia in packages using taxpayers' money, without actually creating new living space. Also rather advantageous for the company.

What is your opinion on this?

At 53 billion euros, the 40 DAX companies are likely to pay out almost one billion euros more this year than a year ago - more than ever before.

The reason for the strong development is high consolidated profits and unexpectedly rising dividends at a good dozen companies, including $ALV (+1,15 %) Allianz, $MUV2 (+0,78 %) Munich Re and $RHM (-2,6 %) Rheinmetall.

At 109 billion euros net profit, the DAX companies are likely to have earned as much in 2024 as in the previous year, according to Handelsblatt calculations. Slump in earnings for the three car manufacturers $BMW (+2,58 %) BMW, $MBG (+1,63 %) Mercedes and $VOW (+2,24 %) VW will be offset by companies in other sectors, in particular the major insurers Allianz, Munich Re and $HNR1 (-0,45 %) Hannover Re, but also $DTE (+2,2 %) Deutsche Telekom, $HEN (+0 %) Henkel and $EOAN (-0,37 %) Eon.

More than a dozen DAX companies have announced higher dividends than the market had previously expected. For example $ALV (+1,15 %) 15.40 euros per share after 13.80 euros in the previous year. Analysts had forecast just under 15 euros. The insurer is thus distributing just under six billion euros. This is a record in the German corporate landscape.

The biggest jump is at $MUV2 (+0,78 %) Munich Re: The reinsurer is increasing its dividend by five euros per share to 20 euros.

The two healthcare specialists $FRE (+0,93 %) Fresenius and $FME (+1,58 %) Fresenius Medical Care, the brand manufacturer $HEN (+0 %) Henkel, the automotive supplier $BTR Continental, the $CBK (+0,85 %) Commerzbank, $RHM (-2,6 %) Rheinmetall and $HNR1 (-0,45 %) Hannover Re have raised their dividends, in some cases significantly more than expected. This is also due to rising profits, which justify a higher profit share for shareholders.

The largest dividend payers in the DAX are

• $ALV (+1,15 %)
• 
  $DTE (+2,2 %)
• 
  $MBG (+1,63 %)
• 
  $SIE (+2,23 %)
• 
  $VOW (+2,24 %)

Like the car manufacturers, a number of companies in the DAX remain below the usual international payout ratios, including the family-run groups $BEI (+1,35 %) Beiersdorf and $MRK (+2,25 %) Merck. They pass on less than 30 percent of their profits. This leaves enough of a buffer so that dividends do not have to be reduced immediately in more difficult times.

Germany's most valuable group, $SAP (+1,35 %) SAP, with a payout ratio of 85%, is pushing the limit: net profit of 3.1 billion euros in the past year compares with a total dividend payout of 2.7 billion euros. However, the profit was burdened by a one-off effect.

So far, a total of 20 companies have increased their dividends, with only $BAS (+2,14 %) BASF and the three car manufacturers. Four companies have yet to do so: $RWE (+0,29 %) RWE, $SY1 (+0,25 %) Symrise and $VNA (+0,1 %) Vonovia are likely to increase their dividends, while analysts expect $PAH3 (+1,81 %) analysts expect a reduction at Porsche Holding.

Source (excerpt) & chart: Handelsblatt, 15.03.25

$VNA (+0,1 %) Does anyone know this? I couldn't find anything on the net, which is why I think there is no reason to do so? Time to buy more?

The profit forecasts for the current financial year have risen for 21 of the 40 DAX companies.

According to research by Handelsblatt, analysts have raised their profit estimates for these 7 of the 40 DAX companies by at least five percent in the last three months.

Handelsblatt sheds light on the prospects of these seven companies and their shares with a view to their prospects: the development of earnings this year, the resulting changes in valuation - and how analysts are positioning themselves.

Below is a brief overview, details with further information can be found at "Handelsblatt"

$ENR (+4,78 %) The earnings forecasts for Siemens Energy shares are rising most rapidly

$DBK (+4,27 %) Deutsche Bank share: Rising profits cause valuation to fall sharply

For $QGEN Qiagen: Difficult times after the pandemic are over

$VNA (+0,1 %) Vonovia makes billions in profit after billions in losses

$ZAL (+2,05 %) Zalando: Takeover gives new share price potential

$MTX (+0,51 %) MTU: Global market leader generates stable earnings

$DTE (+2,2 %) Deutsche-Telekom: Unusually strong vote from analysts

Source / Graphics: Handelsblatt, 18.02.25

$NKE (+0,4 %) I'll wait until 52 - maybe I'll miss it, but it's okay

$ENPH (+5,24 %) from now until 47 on a bullish impulse

$VNA (+0,1 %) - already have a position but add here at Retraces.

$BABA (+1,38 %) - I already have a position, but I'll add at Retraces.

$PYPL (+1,12 %) - DCA from now on , 72, 63, 54