The last press went pretty well for $PUM (+3,37 %) pretty well and I'm hoping for a comeback. I've been invested here for a while, but not much has happened with the stock so far📄
What do you think?
Puestos
56The last press went pretty well for $PUM (+3,37 %) pretty well and I'm hoping for a comeback. I've been invested here for a while, but not much has happened with the stock so far📄
What do you think?
I've been watching Puma for a long time - not because of short-term trends, but because of the substance behind the brand. Now, after the 50% drop in the share price since the beginning of the year (as of April 2025, price ~€22), things are getting interesting.
Because: Puma is currently valued favorably - the P/E ratio 2025e is around 13, while competitors such as Nike or Adidas sometimes have P/E ratios above 25. The price/sales ratio is only ~0.6, which in my view is an understatement of the potential for a global brand with billions in sales.
Important figures:
Turnover 2024: € 8.6 billion
Adjusted EBIT: € 622 million
EBIT margin 2024: 7.2%
Target margin by 2027: 8.5% (through the "nextlevel" efficiency program)
Net debt: manageable at ~€ 640 million, solid in relation to the balance sheet
Market capitalization: ~€ 3.2 billion
The company is currently focusing on efficiency and profitable markets. These include, among others:
Withdrawal from weaker markets (e.g. US mass market)
Expansion of the direct-to-consumer business
Focus on retro models such as "Speedcat" - with high margins and brand loyalty
Regional focus on Latin America and EMEA, where growth has recently been strongest
Why I am considering an investment:
1. turnaround character: operationally, things are not going badly - only the outlook for 2025 is cautious. But this is precisely where the opportunity lies: the poor sentiment is already priced in.
2. valuation: Historically low multiples for a sports brand with global reach.
3. brand & management: Despite challenges, Puma has a clear strategy and has been known in the past for making strong counter-cyclical returns.
Risks? Of course. The USA and China are weakening, and fashion is not a sure-fire success. But for long-term investors with patience and a sense for undervalued quality, Puma could be exciting right now.
I'm not invested yet - but I'm doing the math.
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Tariffs hamper Big Tech in the US + Apple has to raise prices + E-prescription drives growth of online pharmacy Redcare + Puma replaces boss after disappointing results + Canada imposes counter tariffs on some vehicles from the US
Tariffs hamper big tech in the USA
$AMZN (+1 %) / $NVDA (+0,78 %) / $MSFT (+0,35 %)
Apple $AAPL (+0,79 %)must raise prices
E-prescription drives growth of online pharmacy Redcare $RDC (+4,3 %)
Puma $PUM (+3,37 %)replaces CEO after disappointing results
Canada imposes counter-tariffs on some vehicles from the USA
Friday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures
Stock market holiday in China and Hong Kong
08:00 DE: New orders February seasonally adjusted FORECAST: +3.5% yoy previous: -7.0% yoy
08:00 DE: Manufacturing Turnover February | Services Turnover January
08:45 FR: Industrial Production February FORECAST: +0.2% yoy previous: -0.6% yoy
10:00 EUECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos, speaks at Academia Europea Leadership Event
14:30 US: Labor Market Data March Employment ex Agriculture PROGNOSE: +140,000 yoy previous: +151,000 yoy Unemployment rate PROGNOSE: 4.1% previous: 4.1% Average hourly earnings PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy/+3.9% yoy previous: +0.3% yoy/+4.0% yoy
17:25 US: Fed Chairman Powell, economic outlook speech
No time specified: UK: Governor of the Bank of England, meeting of the Financial Policy Committee
$ADS (+0,57 %) down 9% today due to Trump's tariffs on Vietnam 🇻🇳 China 🇨🇳 and Cambodia 🇰🇭
Is this a nice discount campaign to get in there?
Adidas P/E ratio is, however, far above those of $NKE (+0,73 %) and $PUM (+3,37 %) which indicates overvaluation.
What is your assessment of the share?
Lewis Hamilton's switch to Ferrari has the merchandising cash register ringing. The Brit's fans have practically overrun equipment supplier Puma. The equipment partner has now published its first figures.
Lewis Hamilton raced in silver for twelve years. Since the start of the current season, the driver and his fans have had to get used to a new color. The announcement that Ferrari had signed the record winner had already caused quite a stir last season. However, the euphoria in the first few months of the year was heightened once again when the change was completed.
The first official picture of Lewis Hamilton in front of Enzo Ferrari's old house received 5.7 million likes from fans on Instagram. No other post with Formula 1 content had ever generated such a social media response before. Ferrari fed the wave of euphoria bit by bit with new content during the winter break and kept it rolling into the season.
The hype surrounding Hamilton naturally led to an increase in demand for merchandising products. All the fans who had been wearing the seven-time world champion's Mercedes gear for years now naturally had to switch sides with their idol. The demand for caps and shirts with the starting number 44 was huge. Unfortunately, the new Ferrari Formula 1 collection was not yet available in time for the start of work shortly after the turn of the year.
Queues in front of the Ferrari stands
It was only shortly before the start of the season that equipment supplier Puma began to meet demand and supply dealers. Anyone who was there in Melbourne could see huge crowds of people in front of the Ferrari stands in Albert Park. Ferrari has always been the most popular team in the Formula 1 field in Australia, but with Lewis Hamilton, sales increased considerably once again.
The renowned British portal "SportBusiness" has learned from sources at Puma that merchandising sales have increased eightfold in the first few months of this year compared to the same period last year. Of course, a large proportion of this revenue goes directly back to Ferrari in the form of license fees. This means that a considerable portion of the driver's salary, estimated at over 50 million euros, has probably already been recouped.
Ferrari's F1 income explodes
Ferrari's cash registers were already ringing last season. With HP, the Scuderia found a new title sponsor before the Miami Grand Prix, which alone is expected to bring in more than half of the permitted budget cap expenditure (approx. 140 million US dollars). During the winter break, a major deal was then concluded with the Italian UniCredit bank.
Second place in the team standings also contributed to the increase in revenue. According to the official bonus key, the Scuderia is now entitled to 242 million dollars - 34 million more than in the previous year. The explosion in revenue and the spending limits that apply to all teams ensure that Ferrari makes a tidy profit with the Formula 1 team and that the project no longer has a negative impact on the balance sheet as marketing expenses, as was previously the case.
From now on, I will regularly analyze interesting or simply forgotten stocks - with a view to opportunities, risks and valuation. Today's focus: PUMA SE, a sporting goods giant with challenges, but also potential. ->$PUM (+3,37 %)
🔍 Disclaimer: No investment advice - just my personal assessment. Please do your own research!
PUMA SE is one of the world's leading sporting goods manufacturers and competes with industry giants such as Nike and Adidas. While the company has a strong long-term market position, the share price has suffered considerable losses in recent months. This report analyzes PUMA's current situation, the most important challenges and the valuation of the share from a fundamental perspective.
1. fundamentals and current business development
In financial year 2024, PUMA recorded currency-adjusted sales growth of 4.4% to around €9.1 billion. Despite a challenging market environment, the company was able to increase its gross profit margin to 47.7%, underlining the brand's resilience. The operating result (EBIT) remained stable at 620 million euros.
Nevertheless, there was a slowdown in growth compared to previous years. Developments in the EMEA region (Europe, Middle East and Africa) were particularly challenging, while the markets in North and Latin America delivered solid results.
2 Challenges and strategic measures
PUMA is facing several challenges that require both operational and strategic adjustments:
- Weakening consumer sentiment: ongoing uncertainty due to global economic fluctuations and high inflation rates is dampening the purchasing power of many consumers.
- Geopolitical risks: Trade conflicts and currency fluctuations have a noticeable impact on margins and sales growth.
- Increasing efficiency and cutting costs: PUMA has announced plans to cut around 500 jobs worldwide and restructure unprofitable business units. These measures are intended to improve profitability in the long term.
Despite these challenges, PUMA remains strategically focused on growth. The focus is on strengthening direct sales channels (e-commerce and flagship stores) and on partnerships in the sports and lifestyle sector.
3. valuation of the share - undervalued or fairly priced?
PUMA shares have lost considerable value in recent months and are currently trading close to a multi-year low.
- The current price is around EUR 23.68, which corresponds to a fall of almost 55% from the 52-week high of EUR 52.96.
- The average analyst price target is EUR 33.95, with a range of EUR 25 to EUR 50.
- The P/E ratio (price/earnings ratio) for 2025 is estimated at around 16, which appears relatively low by historical standards.
Some analysts argue that the share could be undervalued due to the solid brand strength and long-term growth prospects. However, others continue to see risks, particularly if the weak consumer environment persists for longer.
4 Conclusion - opportunities and risks for investors
PUMA is undoubtedly a strongly positioned company with global brand recognition. In the short term, the market environment remains challenging, especially due to macroeconomic uncertainties. However, investors with a long-term investment horizon could see attractive entry opportunities if they believe in the long-term recovery of the sporting goods industry.
For investors considering a position in PUMA, it remains crucial to closely monitor the upcoming quarterly results and the progress of the restructuring measures.
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