Airbus

Airbus
$AIR (+0,93 %) is modernizing the A400M-military transporter fleet as part of a 380 million euro contract.

The improvements include a satellite-based landing systemmodernized radio equipment and more secure data transmission to ensure interoperability between the operating countries such as Germany, France and Great Britain to strengthen its position.

The contract was concluded with Occar, the agency coordinating the A400M program.

By 2026, all 53 aircraft for the German Air Force are to be delivered by 2026.

Photo: Airbus

Analyst updates, 05.11.

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- ODDO BHF raises the price target for BIONTECH from USD 110 to USD 130. Outperform. $BNTX (+6,37 %)

- BARCLAYS raises the price target for AIRBUS from EUR 161 to EUR 165. Overweight. $AIR (+0,93 %)

- CITIGROUP raises the price target for SCOUT24 from EUR 91 to EUR 94.50. Buy. $G24 (-0,06 %)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for REDCARE PHARMACY from EUR 174 to EUR 176. Buy. $RDC (-3,11 %)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for RYANAIR from EUR 17 to EUR 17.50. Hold. $RYA (-0,89 %)

- BERNSTEIN rates EBAY from Market-Perform to Outperform. Target price USD 70. $EBAY (+1,18 %)

- ODDO BHF raises the price target for SALZGITTER from EUR 14 to EUR 15.50. Underperform. $SZG (-1,9 %)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for COMMERZBANK from EUR 16 to EUR 17. Equal-Weight. $CBK (-1,01 %)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for MTU from EUR 295 to EUR 340. Equal-Weight. $MTX (+1,36 %)

- MORGAN STANLEY rates LUFTHANSA to Equal-Weight. Target price EUR 7. $LHA (-1,42 %)

- BERENBERG raises the price target for DEUTSCHE KONSUM REIT from EUR 3.50 to EUR 5. Hold.

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- GOLDMAN lowers the price target for MERCEDES-BENZ from EUR 65 to EUR 63. Buy. $MBG (-0,53 %)

- UBS lowers target price for 1&1 from EUR 21.60 to EUR 21. Buy.

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for GFT TECHNOLOGIES from EUR 40 to EUR 37.50. Buy. $GFT (-0,91 %)

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB lowers the price target for ECKERT & ZIEGLER from EUR 63.50 to EUR 55. Buy. $EUZ (-1,61 %)

- BARCLAYS lowers the price target for BNP PARIBAS from EUR 90 to EUR 85. Overweight. $BNP (-0,09 %)

- BERENBERG downgrades SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC from Buy to Hold and lowers price target from EUR 261 to EUR 255. $SU (+0,97 %)

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for BEFESA from EUR 41 to EUR 31. Buy. $BFSA (-2,52 %)

Airbus Q3 2024 $AIR (+0,93 %)

Financial Performance:

• Revenues: Airbus recorded a 5% increase in revenues to EUR 44.5 billion in the first nine months of 2024, compared to EUR 42.6 billion in the same period last year.
• EBIT (adjusted): Adjusted EBIT decreased by 23% to €2.8 billion, compared to €3.6 billion in the previous year.
• Net profit: Net profit fell by 22% to 1.8 billion euros, compared to 2.3 billion euros in the previous year.

Balance sheet overview:

• Total assets: Total assets increased to 124.1 billion euros from 118.9 billion euros at the end of 2023.
• Equity: Equity grew to 19.1 billion euros, compared to 17.7 billion euros.
• Net cash position: The net cash position decreased to 7.2 billion euros, compared to 10.7 billion euros at the end of 2023.

Income statement:

• EBIT (reported): Slight decrease to 2.7 billion euros.
• Earnings per share: Decrease to 2.29 euros, compared to 2.96 euros in the same period last year.

Cash flow overview:

• Free cash flow: Negative cash flow of 877 million euros, compared to a positive cash flow of 843 million euros in the first nine months of 2023.
• Free cash flow before customer financing: Negative at 845 million euros, compared to positive 1.1 billion euros.

Key figures and profitability metrics:

• EBIT margin: Adjusted EBIT margin decreased from 8.5% to 6.3%.
• R&D expenditure: Increase of 8% to 2.4 billion euros.

Segment information:

• Airbus Commercial Aircraft: Revenues increased by 4% to 32.9 billion euros.
• Airbus Helicopters: Revenues increased by 5% to 4.9 billion euros.
• Airbus Defense and Space: Revenues increased by 7% to 7.6 billion euros.

Competitive position:

• Order backlog: The order backlog increased to 8,749 commercial aircraft.
• Net orders: Decrease to 648 aircraft, compared to 1,241 in the previous year.

Forecasts and management commentary:

• Outlook for 2024: Airbus targets 770 commercial aircraft deliveries, an adjusted EBIT of around € 5.5 billion and a free cash flow before customer financing of around € 3.5 billion.

Risks and opportunities:

• Risks: Geopolitical uncertainties, supply chain problems and specific program setbacks, such as with the A400M.
• Opportunities: High demand for products as well as strategic focus on increasing deliveries and transforming the Defense and Space division.

Summary of results:

Airbus showed solid sales growth, supported by higher deliveries and a favorable product mix in commercial aircraft and helicopters. However, profitability metrics such as underlying EBIT and net profit declined due to increased R&D spending and challenges in the Defense and Space segment. With a stable order backlog and continued robust demand, management is focusing on overcoming supply chain issues and geopolitical uncertainties in order to achieve the annual targets for 2024.

Positive aspects:

• Revenue growth: Airbus recorded revenue growth of 5%, reaching a total of EUR 44.5 billion in the first nine months of 2024. This growth was mainly supported by higher commercial aircraft deliveries and a favorable mix in the helicopter segment.
• Strong order situation: The order backlog for commercial aircraft increased to 8,749 units, reflecting strong demand and a solid base for future deliveries.
• Helicopter segment performance: Airbus Helicopters recorded a 5% increase in revenues to a total of EUR 4.9 billion. Growth was supported by a favorable program mix and solid service performance, contributing positively to the overall business.
• Order intake in Defense and Space: Airbus Defence and Space reported a 30% increase in order intake to €11.0 billion, highlighting strong contract wins and good momentum in this area.
• Strategic focus on supply chain management: Airbus has a strong focus on actively managing supply chain challenges and increasing aircraft deliveries. This strengthens the company's position for future demand and gives Airbus a competitive advantage.

Negative aspects:

• Decline in adjusted EBIT: Adjusted EBIT decreased by 23% to €2.8 billion due to the impact of increased R&D spending and provisions in Space, weighing on profitability.
• Decline in net profit: Net profit fell by 22% to €1.8 billion, resulting in a drop in earnings per share from €2.96 to €2.29, which could raise concerns among investors about profitability.
• Negative Free Cash Flow: Airbus reported a negative free cash flow of €877 million, a significant deterioration compared to a positive cash flow of €843 million in the same period in 2023. This is mainly due to higher inventory levels and changes in working capital.
• Decline in net orders: Net orders for commercial aircraft decreased to 648 units (previous year: 1,241), which indicates a slowdown in incoming orders and could affect the order backlog in the long term.
• Challenges in the Defense and Space division: Defence and Space reported an adjusted EBIT of EUR -661 million, mainly due to significant charges in the space sector. This illustrates the ongoing difficulties in this division.

$NAS (+1,36 %)

Dark clouds on the horizon

Norwegian Air misses Q3 profit expectations and lowers upper end of 2024 guidance range

Norwegian Air has lowered the upper end of its profit guidance for 2024 after reporting a lower-than-market-expected core profit for the third quarter on Friday. The company also said its capacity growth will slow in 2025 due to delays in Boeing aircraft deliveries.

The low-cost airline reported an operating profit of 2.13 billion Norwegian kroner (194.74 million dollars), below the company's forecast of 2.33 billion kroner. In the same period last year, the profit amounted to 2.17 billion kroner, a decrease of two percent.

The low-cost carrier announced that it expects its capacity growth to slow down in 2025, compared to the 13 percent forecast for 2024.

The company reduced its operating profit forecast for 2024 to a range of 2.1 to 2.4 billion kroner, including Wideroe.

In July, the Group lowered its annual forecast and stated that it expects an operating profit of between 2.1 and 2.6 billion kroner this year.

Longer delays in aircraft deliveries $BA (-1,36 %) Boeing (BA.N) , which were exacerbated by the month-long strike by around 33,000 employees, and by $AIR (+0,93 %) Airbus (AIR.PA) forced the airlines to lease aircraft externally to cover their capacity needs, driving up short-term costs.

Norwegian Air, on the other hand, said it had increased capacity in the third quarter and improved load factors at both the airline and its recently integrated acquisition Wideroe, a domestic competitor that operates smaller aircraft and serves only regional airports.

"Going forward, we will continue to work to streamline operations and identify additional synergies with Wideroe," CEO Geir Karlsen said in a statement.

He also said that the booking momentum for the seasonally weak fourth quarter was "encouraging across the group, both for leisure and business travel".

17.10.2024

Adidas weak + Airbus cuts up to 2,500 jobs in defense and aerospace division + LVMH under pressure after figures + Nestle lowers annual targets + Nokia sees turning point coming

For the share of Adidas $ADS (-1,54 %) fell by 6.3 percent after the sporting goods manufacturer raised its forecast the previous evening. The stock market criticized the fact that the forecast was now where the consensus of analysts had already seen it beforehand - and therefore did not provide a positive surprise. Deutsche Bank analysts pointed out that operating costs had risen by around 5 percent in the third quarter compared to a stable first half of the year. In addition, luxury goods manufacturer LVMH reported that the short-term outlook remains cautious, as it is unclear whether demand in China has bottomed out and whether growth in the US and Europe is accelerating.

Airbus $AIR (+0,93 %) is struggling with huge losses in the satellite business and therefore wants to cut up to 2,500 jobs in its defense and aerospace division. The aerospace company announced on Wednesday that the cuts would take place by mid-2026. The Airbus division employs almost 35,000 people in Germany and other European countries. The locations affected are to be clarified at the end of the year following talks with the trade unions and works councils. Airbus mainly builds satellites in Immenstaad on Lake Constance, in Toulouse, in London and in Munich.

Disappointing quarterly figures from LVMH $MC (-1,36 %) put the entire sector under pressure on Wednesday. Luxury and consumer goods stocks fell significantly. LVMH fell by 5.1 percent to 593.70 euros. Also Kering $KER (-2,7 %) and numerous other stocks in the sector also lost ground. Negative analyst opinions also played a role for the French cosmetics manufacturer. LVMH continued its disappointing performance in the current year with these losses. The downward trend since the spring is intact, after the share marked new lows for the year and wiped out the recovery attempts of the past week. The French luxury goods group continues to struggle with subdued demand. In the third quarter, turnover fell by three percent, excluding currency effects and acquisitions and disposals of parts of the company. Analysts had expected slight growth of 0.9 percent on average. Overall, turnover fell by 4.4 percent to 19.08 billion euros. This is also less than experts had expected. The analysts at Goldman Sachs therefore spoke of a disappointment, although expectations before the report had already been cautious. The fashion and leather goods segment in particular had suffered from weak demand from China, but the spirits segment had also missed estimates. The economic environment for luxury goods remains difficult and the next six months are unlikely to be easy. L'Oreal $OR (+1,38 %) recently lost 3.4 percent to 363.70 euros after JPMorgan downgraded the shares from "Neutral" to "Underweight" and lowered the price target from 390 to 325 euros.

The food group Nestle has lowered its forecasts for the current year following a disappointing quarter. Growth in the first nine months was too low to maintain the previous targets. The new CEO Laurent Freixe has therefore cut expectations for 2024 and the company now expects growth of around two percent. Former CEO Mark Schneider had recently emphasized that Nestle would grow organically by "over 3 percent" for the year as a whole, but this seems too optimistic. Laurent Freixe, who took over as CEO in August after a long career at the food multinational, has now rejected these false hopes and lowered his expectations for the year as a whole.

The network equipment supplier Nokia $NOKIA (-2,29 %) is gradually seeing the turning point in its weak markets. "Net sales are recovering more slowly than we expected, but we are compensating for this in part with an improved gross margin and cost savings," said Group CEO Pekka Lundmark in a statement on Thursday. Signs of recovery are already visible in business with fixed-line and IP products. The market for mobile networks, on the other hand, is proving more difficult. In the third quarter, Nokia therefore fell short of analysts' expectations: in the three months to the end of September, net revenue slipped by eight percent year-on-year to 4.3 billion euros. Industry experts had expected more on average.

Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

07:30 TSMC quarterly figures

12:30 KeyCorp quarterly figures

13:00 Travelers Cos quarterly figures

22:00 Netflix quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 ABB | Nordea | Nokia | Essilor-Luxottica

07:00 Sartorius quarterly figures | Hella sales 3Q

07:15 Nestle 9 months sales

09:00 Pernod-Ricard 1Q sales

09:00 Sartorius PK

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: Manufacturing orders on hand and backlog August
• 08:00 CH: Trade Balance
• 11:00 EU: Trade balance sb August FORECAST: n/a previous: +15.5 bn euro
• 11:00 EU: Consumer prices September Eurozone FORECAST: -0.1% yoy/+1.8% yoy PREVIEW: -0.1% yoy/+1.8% yoy PREVIEW: +0.1% yoy/+2.2% yoy CORE RATE FORECAST: +0.1% yoy/+2.7% yoy PREVIEW: +0.1% yoy/+2.7% yoy PREVIEW: +0.3% yoy/+2.8% yoy
• 14:15 EU: ECB, outcome of the Governing Council meeting Deposit rate FORECAST: 3.25% previously: 3.50%
• 14:30 US: Retail Sales September PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy previous: +0.1% yoy Retail Sales ex Motor Vehicles PROGNOSE: +0.1% yoy previous: +0.1% yoy
• 14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) FORECAST: 260,000 Previous: 258,000
• 14:30 US: Philadelphia Fed Index October FORECAST: 3.0 PREVIOUS: 1.7
• 14:45 EU: ECB, PK after Governing Council meeting
• 15:15 US: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization September Industrial Production PROGNOSE: -0.2% yoy previous: +0.8% yoy Capacity utilization PROGNOSE: 77.8% previous: 78.0%
• 16:00 US: Inventories August PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy previous: +0.4% yoy

$MA (+1,13 %) unfortunately ran into the KO.

Learning for me: adjust leverage for stocks that like to open with a downgap.

The strategy was right, but unfortunately it doesn't always work.

Still open:

$AIR (+0,93 %) +55%

$RIO (+1,15 %) +280%

$BATS (+0,27 %) +20%

$CME (+0,21 %) -5%

#auchmaldieverlustezeigen

#1

I have been involved in the EVTOL sector for some time now and find it very promising for the future.

There are a large number of companies that want to develop EVTOL aircraft (electrically powered vertical take-off and landing aircraft) in the future, some of which are already in promising test phases. In addition, some of the most promising companies are already listed on the stock exchange. The following EVTOL manufacturers are listed on the stock exchange:

• Archer ($ACHR )
• Joby Aviation ($JOBY )
• Lilium ($LILM (-12,77 %) )
• Vertical Aerospace ($EVTL )
• Ehang ($EH )
• Horizon Aircraft ($HOR )
• Airbus ($AIR (+0,93 %)
  

However, there are other promising developers that are not currently listed on the stock exchange, so direct investments in these companies are not possible. Here is an overview of the unlisted companies:

• Volocopter
• Xpeng Aeroht
• Wisk
• Supernal
• Eve Air Mobility
• AIR VEV

I asked myself how the industry is structured and whether it is possible to invest in the industry through indirect investments. And I will say this much: yes, you can.

Here is an overview of the value chain:

✈️ Aviation titans compared: Airbus, Boeing, Embraer - who will take off? 🚀

Company presentation

Airbus is a leading European aerospace company based in the Netherlands that develops and produces civil and military aircraft, helicopters, satellites and launchers.

Boeing is an American aerospace and defense company that produces both civil and military aircraft and is the world's second largest manufacturer in this sector.

Embraer is a Brazilian aircraft manufacturer recognized as the fourth largest producer of commercial aircraft in the world, producing both civil and military aircraft.

Historical development

Airbus was founded in 1970 and some of the most significant milestones include the introduction of the A300 (1974), the A320 family (1988) and the A380 (2007).

Boeing was founded in 1916, with the B-17 (1935), the B-747 (1970) and the B-787 (2011) standing out as defining developments.

Embraer was founded in 1969 as part of a Brazilian government aviation program, with important models such as the EMB 110 Bandeirante (1968) and the E-Jet family (2004) standing out.

Business model and core competencies

$AIR (+0,93 %) focuses on the manufacture of commercial aircraft, military aircraft, helicopters and space technology. Its core competencies lie in aircraft design and production.

$BA (-1,36 %) covers the areas of civil aviation, defense, space and security, with aircraft construction and defense systems representing the core competencies.

$EMBR3 focuses on regional and business aircraft as well as military applications, with the company particularly strong in the construction of smaller commercial aircraft and business jets.

Future prospects and strategic initiatives

Airbus is focusing on sustainable aviation technologies, digital transformation and the development of hydrogen drives as a strategy for the future.

Boeing is investing in autonomous aircraft systems, electrification and the use of sustainable fuels.

Embraer is planning to further develop its e-jet family and enter new market segments such as electrically powered vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft.

Market position and competition

Airbus and Boeing jointly dominate the market for wide-body aircraft and form a duopoly. Since 2019, Airbus has overtaken Boeing as the largest aircraft manufacturer.

Embraer is the market leader in the regional aircraft segment and competes with Bombardier and ATR.

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The global market for commercial aircraft is estimated to be worth around USD 7.2 trillion by 2041.

Share performance

- Airbus: 0.72 %

- Boeing: -27.4 %

- Embraer: +150.7% %

Compared to today, Airbus' share price performance since 2005 is 456%, Boeing's is 235% and Embraer's is 144.21%

For the development (company figures), a better view and more, check out the free blog: https://topicswithhead.beehiiv.com/p/luftfahrt-titanen-im-vergleich-airbus-boeing-embraer-wer-hebt-ab

Conclusion:

It depends on what you are looking for, but there are two main options: Airbus or Embraer, although you can also consider both as they do differ. Choosing Boeing is nothing more than a risky turnaround bet with nothing to back it up. It is completely incomprehensible why the company is still worth so much with such weak figures and an overall poor performance - and not just recently.

Airbus presents itself as a clear investment option: the company operates in the duopoly market, works positively and does not dilute its shareholders significantly. Even if margins are currently falling and there are many challenges, the long-term prospects are hopeful. In addition, there is still considerable room for improvement in areas such as defense and other markets, which investors can view positively. With a solid foothold in the Netherlands, Airbus also has a good basis for further growth.

At Embraer, it is remarkable how efficiently the company has been operating for years, especially with regard to its minimal research and development activities. The group plans to achieve much more and has a dedicated engineering team. Nevertheless, Brazil is a location to consider as geopolitical aspects can be challenging at times, especially in the military sector.

My recent entry into Airbus was at 130 euros. If there is another correction in Embraer, I plan to make a small entry there as well.

I would like to specialize my portfolio a bit more in defense companies. What other companies are there apart from the big ones like $RHM (+1,35 %) or $LMT (+2,15 %) , $AIR (+0,93 %) ,...

Thank you very much

Airbus Earnings $AIR (+0,93 %)

Airbus generated revenues of 28.8 billion euros (previous year 27.7 billion) and a profit of 825 million (previous year 1.53 billion) in the first half of the year. Adjusted EBIT amounted to 1.39 billion after 2.62 billion in the previous year.

Airbus: second quarter revenues of 16.0 billion euros (previous year 15.9 billion), adjusted EBIT of 814 million (previous year 1.85 billion, consensus 699 million).

Airbus continues to expect to deliver around 770 aircraft in the current year and also expects adjusted EBIT to remain at EUR 5.5 billion and free cash flow at around EUR 3.5 billion.