Does anyone have more information on the big drop in the Auto1 Group share price (40% in 1 month)?
It looked like quite a success story. I can't find any bad news and great valuations.
Could be a great entry price for the stock.

Puestos
23Does anyone have more information on the big drop in the Auto1 Group share price (40% in 1 month)?
It looked like quite a success story. I can't find any bad news and great valuations.
Could be a great entry price for the stock.

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1 - Listen to friends and relatives. Impact: low.
It's a bit of a mixed bag. Sometimes, of course, it makes sense to listen to people if they are competent in an area. The problem is that in some areas, friends and family tend to give well-intentioned tips but actually have no idea at all. A good example of this would be that as an old computer nerd, I always wanted a desktop PC as a teenager, but my mother told me that a laptop would be so much more practical and would have many advantages. The problem was that they always broke down and it was just far too expensive and inconvenient to repair them, as the components couldn't be replaced easily. And let's not even start with tips on investments and the savings bank.
--> My learning: If you're not completely clueless in an area, you shouldn't listen to well-intentioned advice, but have confidence in your own abilities.
2 - Shopping in physical stores. Impact: medium
This is probably the most controversial point in the whole list, but I have to say that I have often had very negative experiences with buying something in a store instead of ordering online. It often starts with the price itself - but then there are often hidden costs that you don't even see. A real-life example would be the recent purchase of my Apple Watch at the local electronics store (please refrain from joking at this point that the purchase itself was already a mistake).
First of all, the thing costs a little less online at one or the other retailer, so you basically pay around €35 extra for the pleasure of buying from a specialist retailer or in the Apple Store (which doesn't exist locally). Incidentally, the Telekom store would have charged another €20 above the list price, which would have increased the Premium to €55.
That's the part of the cost that you can see directly. However, the electronics store didn't have the right bundle of watch + wristband in its range, so I decided to buy the watch without the wristband without further ado, as I could simply reorder it later. What no one says, however, is that the desired strap costs €200 instead of €100 if you buy it separately from the watch. This means that the additional cost is already €135.
To top it all off, the store doesn't accept American Express payments, which means I have to leave another €10 in refunds.
This is a very specific example, but just one of many. Local retailers also like to put up with complaints despite defective goods and a receipt. Even when I suggested a compromise by accepting a credit note or repair, I was once told at Saturn "Nope, we don't see it. What's in it for us?" after which I never again entered a $CEC (-0,86 %) shop again.
--> My learning: I'm really sorry to say, but if you don't want to run an honorary charity organization to preserve German jobs, it's better to buy online, where prices are transparent and complaints are automated and digital.
3 - Take the easy route. Impact: difficult
One of the easiest ways to lose a lot of money is to stay in your comfort zone. If you never ask for discounts and deals, book package tours without comparing prices, prefer to call a cab on vacation instead of dealing with how the subway system actually works, pay bills in restaurants without reading through to see if you actually ordered the items, you are simply as cooked as it gets.
So here are a few self-reflected points where I (almost) wasted a lot of money. Firstly, I'm serious about the restaurant. I recently stayed at a really fancy establishment for my birthday and celebrated with my girlfriend. Although we really only had a few snacks, the bill for both of us came to around €400. Being the cool guy that I am, I naturally kept a straight face despite having a massive heart attack and already had my credit card in my hand - until my girlfriend noticed that they had swapped our table and I almost paid someone else's bill. All because I didn't want to make a drama out of it.
Another case was that I once sold my car to the well-known and popular company "wir klauen dein Auto" and was massively spammed by them because they simply ended up giving me several thousand euros below their estimated selling price. The reason for this was that the company's own "expert" thought he had discovered some defects and accident damage that simply didn't exist, without providing any evidence. In the end, I had to accept the deal anyway because I had already bought another car and now urgently needed the liquidity and thought to myself "there's a really easy way to get rid of your used car here without having to advertise and negotiate". But $AG1 (-1,73 %) only said: "Fiddlesticks.
(In addition, too little liquidity is probably already a serious problem in itself)
4 - The classic - not starting to invest as early as possible. Impact: massive
And here comes the point that should of course never be missing from such a list and which everyone has already seen coming. As I've often mentioned, I've been involved in investing and retirement planning for over 10 years, but I only actually started investing real money when I was 27.
My thought process behind this was simply that I would invest as soon as possible once I had finished my studies and was earning money, because otherwise it wouldn't be worth it anyway. And that assessment was simply a disaster.
It's true that I had hardly any assets or free cash flow as a student, but I wasn't as completely burnt out as some others. So let's say I could have scraped together €3000-5000 real money somehow. I also tried my hand at investing with demo accounts back then and mainly invested in shares that I knew. These included many German stocks, which I assumed at the time were already good because Germany was good (back then). For example, something like Lufthansa, Siemens and Deutsche Bank. Among others, however, there was also NVIDIA - which was already a household name for me back then. If I had somehow invested even a small sum of maybe €500 there at the time, it would have turned into well over €100k. And it was entirely my mistake to think that it was pointless to invest my small amounts if I could only save a small sum every month. Even with an ETF, it would have made a lot of sense to simply put €1000 into it and invest it 10 years earlier.
--> My learning: Education is still the most precious commodity. It was so right to get involved with the topic as early as possible - but then you also have to go from theory to practice. Instead of always being afraid that my modest assets in the custody account would fluctuate compared to the current account. I should have seen it more as no downfall if I lost money on the market in the absolute worst case, as I could earn it back in 2-3 months after graduation.

A further summary of the conference call now follows from AUTO1 Group ($AG1 (-1,73 %) ) on its results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024.
Christian Bertermann, the Co-Founder and CEO of AUTO1, spoke of a fantastic year 2024an important milestone on the path to profitable growth and underlined the strength of the vertically integrated business model and the performance of the digital commerce platform.
The results for the full year and the fourth quarter were outstanding and marked the best year best year in the company's 12-year history. This is a testament to the successful strategy, consistent execution and commitment of the teams. AUTO1 has leveraged the benefits of the integrated model while driving automation and advances in the field of artificial intelligence.
The figures were impressive: The Group sales rose to an all-time high of 690,000 vehiclesan increase of 18% compared to the previous year. The total gross profit exploded by more than 37% to 725 million euroswhich is almost 200 million euros more than in 2023. The gross profit per unit (GPU) also rose significantly by 17% to 1,049 euros (2023: 899 euros). Last year marked the sixth year in a row with sequential GPU increases at Group level. The adjusted EBITDA grew in each of the four quarters of 2024 and reached 109 million euros the company's best figure ever, an improvement of EUR 153 million compared to 2023. adjusted EBITDA margin climbed to 1.7 %, an increasewhich corresponds to an increase of 2.5 percentage points compared to 2023 and illustrates the significant operating leverage of the business model.
Bertermann emphasized that AUTO1 pursues a value-first strategy strategy in all segments and is strongly focused on creating value for all customers. Over the past year, the company has developed an even better understanding of customers' needs, expectations and priorities, resulting in superior demand demand.
Bertermann then went into more detail about the individual segments, starting with Merchant. Here it was an an exceptional year and a strong fourth quarter. quarter. In the year 2024 615,000 units were soldgrowth of 18% compared to the previous year. The fourth quarter continued with 163,000 units sold another record and accelerated growth to 24 % compared to the previous year. The gross profit in the Merchant segment reached 563 million euros for the year as a whole, an increase of 34%.
In the past year, products and services for partner merchants were further improved, always with the aim of delivering maximum value. The average delivery time was reduced by 4 dayswhich proves the effectiveness of the transport solutions. The AI recommendation algorithms have been improveddocument tracking has been optimized and the translation of equipment and vehicle condition has been refined to maximize convenience for partners. These advances led to a superior demand in the merchant segment. In total 44,600 partner dealers were served, 14% more than in 2023. average shopping basket grew by 3% last year to 13.8 vehicles. In the fourth quarter 27,500 dealers vehicles, compared to 23,700 in the same quarter of the previous year (up 16%).
A total of 114 new branches were opened in the purchasing areaan increase of 26% compared to the previous year. Together with this significant increase in the number of stores, the teams have improved the management of the purchasing operation and positioned it for sustainable long-term growth while maintaining strict cost control.
Next, Bertermann spoke about the Retail. This had set new records in 2024 new records in all key figures achieved. It sold 74,400 cars were sold in this latest division, an increase of 18% compared to the previous year. While the first quarter began with slightly declining sales figures, growth accelerated significantly in the following quarters. As a result of the strong growth in unit sales and GPU, the total gross profit in the Retail segment rose to 162 million eurosan increase of 49% compared to the previous year. In addition to the strong financial performance, it is particularly pleasing that AUTO1 continues to achieve high NPS values of around 70 from its customers.
The internal financing solution offers a seamless digitally integrated process with instant approval and customized payment plans for a first-class customer experience, which promotes trust and long-term loyalty and increases customer retention and repeat transactions. In the externally financed markets, the company works with over 30 strong partners to ensure maximum flexibility and attractiveness.
For the year 2025 CFO Boser gave a forecast for the year 2025: Between between 735,000 and 795,000 units to be sold, of whichof which 650,000 to 700,000 in the Merchant segment and 85,000 to 95,000 via Autohero. The gross profit should between 800 million and 875 million euros and the adjusted EBITDA is between 135 million and 165 million euros expected. The CapEx amounted to just over EUR 11 million in 2024, but is expected to rise to around EUR 22 million in 2025, as additional internal logistics capacities are to be built up and the usable processing capacities in the existing plants are to be expanded. A limited number of additional processing facilities at strategic locations may also be considered. Overall, Boser was very satisfied with the performance in the fourth quarter and in 2024 as a whole and will now invest profitably in the future to ensure that the level of growth and profitability achieved can be maintained and the increase in market share and margins can be driven forward.
In the subsequent question and answer session analysts asked various questions, which the management answered in detail:
Nizla Naizer from Deutsche Bank asked about the assessment of European used car price development in 2025. Christian Bertermann replied that after the very volatile years 2021-2023, 2024 had brought a much more stable environment with less volatility and a gradual, normal decline in used car prices. They are now back in normal waters, with used cars depreciating at a stable and normal rate, and expect this environment to continue in 2025, as no major volatility in new car volumes or other negative or positive factors are expected.
Naizer also asked about the
marketing efforts. Naizer praised the efficiency in 2024 and asked about the focus areas for 2025. Boser did not give a specific forecast for marketing, but pointed out that the operating costs per unit would increase slightly in the forecast. This is partly due to a mix shift towards Autohero where higher growth is expected, which tends to result in higher operating costs per unit.
Christopher Johnen from HSBC came to the operating costs (OpEx) and noted that the forecast OpEx growth of around 15% with an expected sales growth of also around 15% is well above the ratio of 8% OpEx growth to 18% sales growth in 2024. He asked whether this might be conservative given the increased focus on Autohero. Markus Boser confirmed that this reflects the increased investment in Autohero reflected the increased investment in Autohero. The company sees great opportunities here, but is also still in a learning phase.
Johnen asked about expectations for the development of the number of dealers and the use of merchant financing in 2025. Christian Bertermann replied that an increase in the number of increase in the number of merchantsusing merchant financing in line with the planned growth. Regarding the introduction of merchant financing in other markets Bertermann explained that this was taken into account in the forecast to the extent that it appeared planned and likely.
Andrew Ross from Barclays asked about the trends in sales figures in January and February, particularly especially in the retail sector, to get an idea of the sequential growth from Q4 to Q1. Christian Bertermann reported on a good start to the year. The first week was not optimal due to the holiday constellation, but after that we saw good momentum, which continued in February.
Ross also asked about the costs of customer acquisition in the retail sector and the conversion rate when ramping up the business, as well as the management of marketing costs and asset turn. Bertermann explained that the aim was to keep marketing costs in line with optimized costs. Slight increases of 10-15% are conceivable in individual markets. However, the company is continuously learning how this can be made more efficient and is gaining valuable insights into customer acquisition and retention. He expects marketing costs to remain stable or increase slightly.
James Tate from Goldman Sachs asked about the key factors for achieving the lower and upper end of the EBITDA guidance for 2025. Markus Boser explained that this essentially depends on the achieved gross profit figures (sales and GPU) and the control of expenses depend. The range reflects the uncertainties.
2024 was a record year for AUTO1 Group. record year with the best performance in the company's history. The company recorded all-time highs in Group sales (690,000 vehicles) and total gross profit (EUR 725 million), as well as a significant increase in the gross profit per unit (GPU).
For 2025, AUTO1 Group expects further growth in sales growth in sales and profitability . The company is optimistic about the future and is aiming for a higher market market share and an improved EBITDA margin in the in the long term.
Analyst updates, 17.12.
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Analsyst updates, 06.12.
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Changes at Deutsche Börse:
The used car dealer Auto1 $AG1 (-1,73 %) and the biotech company Evotec $EVT (-1,25 %) return to the small cap index on 23.12.24 MDax of the German Stock Exchange. They will replace the metal recycler Befesa $BFSA (-1,79 %) and the automotive and industrial supplier Stabilus $STM (-2,41 %) which will be relegated to the small-cap index SDax, as announced by Deutsche Börse subsidiary ISS Stoxx on Wednesday evening.
Evotec was only forced to leave the MDax in September, but since then the shares have risen again in view of a possible sale of the company. Auto1, on the other hand, was previously listed on the MDax until spring 2022.
In addition, the SDAX also has three newcomers. The software company Nexus $NXU the scientific publisher Springer Nature
$SPG (+0,71 %) and the biosimilars specialist Formycon $FYB (-3,68 %) .
On the other hand, the telecom equipment supplier Adtran Holdings
$ADTN (-4,36 %) the office furniture mail order company Takkt
$TTK (-1,03 %) and the hydrogen specialist Thyssenkrupp Nucera
$NCH2 (-2,77 %) .
In the DAX there are no changes.
The changes will take effect on December 23 of this year.
Handelsblatt
Analyst updates, 05.12.
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05.12.2024
Bitcoin breaks through $100,000 + JPMorgan upgrades SAP to 'Overweight' + Jefferies raises Hellofresh to 'Buy' with target up to EUR 16.50 + Auto1 and Evotec return to MDax
Bitcoin $BTC (-0,15 %)jumped above $100,000 during the night
JPMorgan sees SAP $SAP (+0,58 %)as the favorite for 2025
Jefferies raises Hellofresh $HFG (+1,69 %)to 'Buy' - target raised to 16.50 euros
Auto1 $AG1 (-1,73 %)and Evotec $EVT (-1,25 %)return to MDax - No changes in the Dax
Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures
Qualcomm USD 0.85
22:05 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Annual results
07:00 Aurubis detailed annual results and annual report
10:00 Merck KGaA: Media event "Artificial Intelligence at Merck"
11:00 KWS Saat AGM
14:00 Aurubis Analyst Conference | Safran Capital Markets Day
No time specified: Fuchs SE Capital Markets Day
08:00 DE: New orders October seasonally adjusted FORECAST: -2.0% yoy previous: +4.2% yoy
11:00 EU: Retail Sales October Eurozone FORECAST: -0.3% yoy previous: +0.5% yoy
14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) FORECAST: 215,000 Previous: 213,000
14:30 US: Trade Balance October FORECAST: -74.80 bn USD previously: -84.36 bn USD

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