L'Oreal Acciones Foro

I got in today at the 52-week low.

In my view, a quality share.

Maximum is 1.0:

Stability Turnover 0.95

Profit stability: 0.95

Stability dividend: 0.96

Stability of cash flow: 0.98

Debt ratio has increased compared to the last 5 years: 17.3%

Repayment period: 3 years.

Profit development: a positive return can be expected in the long term.

+This is not investment advice.

The price performance in % of the beauty shares in comparison.

The price development in % of beauty stocks in comparison.

Made the first additional purchase today!

What do you think of LOreal?

Hello everyone

I'm also making my first post 😄.

I hope you are all doing well.

My current buy candidates are:

$ASML (-0,38 %)

$SSUN Samsung stock I never find 😅

$NESN (-0,22 %)

$P911 (-1,22 %)

I still follow some of them:

$OR (-2,66 %) under 305€

$LIN (-0,49 %) under 385€

$MCD (+2,19 %) under 355$

$CVX (+0,94 %) under 135$

$BAS (-5,27 %) under 42.50€

What do you think?

What are your buy candidates?

Greetings from Switzerland.

Finally a little fall over the year, had been on my watch list for a long time $OR (-2,66 %)

Loreal Q3 2024 $OR (-2,66 %)

Financial performance

L'Oréal recorded sales growth of 6.0% in the first nine months of 2024, amounting to €32.40 billion. This growth was consistent both on an adjusted and underlying basis, although the company faced several external challenges, particularly in North Asia. L'Oréal continues to outperform the global beauty market, driven by its innovation and resource redeployment strategies.

Income statement

Sales growth in the different divisions and regions indicates a positive impact on revenues. The Consumer Products Division and the Dermatological Beauty Division showed significant growth, with the latter increasing by 11.3% on an adjusted basis.

Cash flow analysis

The expected impact of the French tax changes in 2024 and 2025 will affect cash flow, with an estimated additional tax burden of EUR 250 million.

Key figures and profitability

The company values margin protection and a steady improvement in the margin, despite increased spending on advertising and promotion (A&P).

Segment analysis

• Professional Products: Grew by 5.8% adjusted, driven by innovations in hair care and hair color.
• Consumer Products: Recorded an increase of 6.4% adjusted, with strong performance in hair care and makeup.
• Luxe: Grew 3.4% adjusted, with strong performance in fragrance.
• Dermatological Beauty: Grew 11.3% adjusted, outperforming the market, despite a slowdown in the US.

Competitive analysis

L'Oréal continues to gain market share in key regions and categories, particularly in luxury and dermatological beauty. The company is leveraging its broad brand portfolio and innovation capabilities to outperform competitors.

Forecasts and management commentary

Management is confident that sales and operating profit will increase for 2024 and is planning a beauty stimulus plan for 2025 to drive further growth. The company expects the global beauty market to grow back to pre-COVID-19 levels by 2025.

Risks and opportunities

• Risks: The challenging market conditions in North Asia, particularly in China, pose a risk to growth. In addition, the impact of the French tax changes could affect profitability.
• Opportunities: The acquisition of a stake in Galderma and the focus on innovation in dermatological beauty offer significant growth opportunities.

Summary and strategic implications

L'Oréal's strategic focus on innovation, market share gains and resource redeployment has enabled the company to maintain robust growth despite external challenges. Investments in dermatological beauty and strategic acquisitions position L'Oréal well for future growth. However, the company must overcome challenges in the Chinese market and manage the impact of tax changes to maintain its performance.

Overall, L'Oréal's strategic initiatives and market positioning point to strong potential for continued growth and market leadership in the beauty industry. My entry price would therefore only be around 340 euros, although I already have some investment via nestle.

Positive statements

• Sales growth: L'Oréal posted solid sales growth of 6.0% in the first nine months of 2024, reaching 32.40 billion euros, showing resilience despite external challenges.
• Market superiority: The company continues to outperform the global beauty market, driven by its innovation and the agility of its teams.
• Segment success: The dermatological beauty division grew by 11.3% on an adjusted basis, significantly outperforming the market.
• Strategic acquisitions: The acquisition of a 10% stake in Galderma positions L'Oréal to expand its dermatology solutions and leverage synergies in skin biology.
• Innovation and resource allocation: L'Oréal's focus on innovation and strategic reallocation of resources has enabled the company to maintain robust growth and market share gains.

Negative statements

• Challenges in North Asia: Sales in North Asia declined by -3.0% adjusted as the Chinese market continues to deteriorate due to low consumer confidence.
• Impact of French tax changes: The expected impact of French tax changes in 2024 and 2025 could affect cash flow, with an estimated additional tax burden of €250 million.
• Slowdown in the US market: The US market has slowed down, affecting the dermatological beauty division in particular, which saw a noticeable decline in growth.
• Pressure on inventories: American retailers have become more cautious about their stock levels, particularly in mass and drugstore markets, which could have a negative impact on sales figures.
• Delayed product launches: The recovery of the makeup category has been gradual, with new product launches delayed, which may have delayed potential growth.

17.10.2024

Adidas weak + Airbus cuts up to 2,500 jobs in defense and aerospace division + LVMH under pressure after figures + Nestle lowers annual targets + Nokia sees turning point coming

For the share of Adidas $ADS (-1,81 %) fell by 6.3 percent after the sporting goods manufacturer raised its forecast the previous evening. The stock market criticized the fact that the forecast was now where the consensus of analysts had already seen it beforehand - and therefore did not provide a positive surprise. Deutsche Bank analysts pointed out that operating costs had risen by around 5 percent in the third quarter compared to a stable first half of the year. In addition, luxury goods manufacturer LVMH reported that the short-term outlook remains cautious, as it is unclear whether demand in China has bottomed out and whether growth in the US and Europe is accelerating.

Airbus $AIR (-1,42 %) is struggling with huge losses in the satellite business and therefore wants to cut up to 2,500 jobs in its defense and aerospace division. The aerospace company announced on Wednesday that the cuts would take place by mid-2026. The Airbus division employs almost 35,000 people in Germany and other European countries. The locations affected are to be clarified at the end of the year following talks with the trade unions and works councils. Airbus mainly builds satellites in Immenstaad on Lake Constance, in Toulouse, in London and in Munich.

Disappointing quarterly figures from LVMH $MC (-2,6 %) put the entire sector under pressure on Wednesday. Luxury and consumer goods stocks fell significantly. LVMH fell by 5.1 percent to 593.70 euros. Also Kering $KER (-5,61 %) and numerous other stocks in the sector also lost ground. Negative analyst opinions also played a role for the French cosmetics manufacturer. LVMH continued its disappointing performance in the current year with these losses. The downward trend since the spring is intact, after the share marked new lows for the year and wiped out the recovery attempts of the past week. The French luxury goods group continues to struggle with subdued demand. In the third quarter, turnover fell by three percent, excluding currency effects and acquisitions and disposals of parts of the company. Analysts had expected slight growth of 0.9 percent on average. Overall, turnover fell by 4.4 percent to 19.08 billion euros. This is also less than experts had expected. The analysts at Goldman Sachs therefore spoke of a disappointment, although expectations before the report had already been cautious. The fashion and leather goods segment in particular had suffered from weak demand from China, but the spirits segment had also missed estimates. The economic environment for luxury goods remains difficult and the next six months are unlikely to be easy. L'Oreal $OR (-2,66 %) recently lost 3.4 percent to 363.70 euros after JPMorgan downgraded the shares from "Neutral" to "Underweight" and lowered the price target from 390 to 325 euros.

The food group Nestle has lowered its forecasts for the current year following a disappointing quarter. Growth in the first nine months was too low to maintain the previous targets. The new CEO Laurent Freixe has therefore cut expectations for 2024 and the company now expects growth of around two percent. Former CEO Mark Schneider had recently emphasized that Nestle would grow organically by "over 3 percent" for the year as a whole, but this seems too optimistic. Laurent Freixe, who took over as CEO in August after a long career at the food multinational, has now rejected these false hopes and lowered his expectations for the year as a whole.

The network equipment supplier Nokia $NOKIA (-0,81 %) is gradually seeing the turning point in its weak markets. "Net sales are recovering more slowly than we expected, but we are compensating for this in part with an improved gross margin and cost savings," said Group CEO Pekka Lundmark in a statement on Thursday. Signs of recovery are already visible in business with fixed-line and IP products. The market for mobile networks, on the other hand, is proving more difficult. In the third quarter, Nokia therefore fell short of analysts' expectations: in the three months to the end of September, net revenue slipped by eight percent year-on-year to 4.3 billion euros. Industry experts had expected more on average.

Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

07:30 TSMC quarterly figures

12:30 KeyCorp quarterly figures

13:00 Travelers Cos quarterly figures

22:00 Netflix quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 ABB | Nordea | Nokia | Essilor-Luxottica

07:00 Sartorius quarterly figures | Hella sales 3Q

07:15 Nestle 9 months sales

09:00 Pernod-Ricard 1Q sales

09:00 Sartorius PK

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: Manufacturing orders on hand and backlog August
• 08:00 CH: Trade Balance
• 11:00 EU: Trade balance sb August FORECAST: n/a previous: +15.5 bn euro
• 11:00 EU: Consumer prices September Eurozone FORECAST: -0.1% yoy/+1.8% yoy PREVIEW: -0.1% yoy/+1.8% yoy PREVIEW: +0.1% yoy/+2.2% yoy CORE RATE FORECAST: +0.1% yoy/+2.7% yoy PREVIEW: +0.1% yoy/+2.7% yoy PREVIEW: +0.3% yoy/+2.8% yoy
• 14:15 EU: ECB, outcome of the Governing Council meeting Deposit rate FORECAST: 3.25% previously: 3.50%
• 14:30 US: Retail Sales September PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy previous: +0.1% yoy Retail Sales ex Motor Vehicles PROGNOSE: +0.1% yoy previous: +0.1% yoy
• 14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) FORECAST: 260,000 Previous: 258,000
• 14:30 US: Philadelphia Fed Index October FORECAST: 3.0 PREVIOUS: 1.7
• 14:45 EU: ECB, PK after Governing Council meeting
• 15:15 US: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization September Industrial Production PROGNOSE: -0.2% yoy previous: +0.8% yoy Capacity utilization PROGNOSE: 77.8% previous: 78.0%
• 16:00 US: Inventories August PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy previous: +0.4% yoy

The trees are putting on their golden-yellow dress, it's getting rainy again and the temperatures are dropping. The golden fall is just around the corner. I take advantage of the cold by only taking cold showers and prepare myself for winter ice bathing. Over the next few days, I'll be swimming in cold water, avoiding hot showers like the plague. Meanwhile, the depot is running. Time for a look back.

I present the following points for the past month of September 2024:

➡️ SHARES

➡️ ETFS

➡️ DISTRIBUTIONS

➡️ CASHBACK

➡️ AFTER-PURCHASES

➡️ P2P CREDITS

➡️ CRYPTO

➡️ WHAT IS REALLY IMPORTANT

➡️ OUTLOOK

➡️ Shares

After the top of the class $AVGO (+1,15 %) has deflated, it is now shifting up a few gears again. The +121% performance of $AVGO (+1,15 %) increased to +178% last month. There is still some way to go to +200%, but perhaps I will soon have the first trebler in my portfolio. That puts me in a good mood! The heavyweight, which also accounts for the largest volume among the individual stocks in my share portfolio, is attracting other heavyweights such as $WMT (+1,81 %) and $NFLX (+0,37 %) behind it. The last few months have also seen $SAP (-0,4 %) steadily risen in my portfolio and has now already reached 4th place, accompanied by $AAPL (+0,65 %) . The former leader $NOVO B (+0,73 %) continues to fall but is still performing well. There are also other stocks that are fighting their way up that I did not expect at the time. For example one $ABBV (+1,03 %) or $BAC (+1,3 %) .

If I look at the performance, I am also spoiled with great results behind the winner. $NFLX (+0,37 %) shines with +98%, $NOVO B (+0,73 %) with +74% and $SAP (-0,4 %) with +72%. When I added the stocks to my portfolio, I would never have imagined that there would be any stocks in my gold box that could double. I'll probably have several of them next year.

And I'm not worried about the basement floor either, as the negative performances are constantly moving towards zero. Step by step. There was also a change in the order at the lower end due to additional purchases. My smallest positions by volume are now $CP (-1,37 %) , $DHL (+0,1 %) and $OR (-2,66 %) in terms of performance they remain $NKE (+0,58 %) , $DHR (+0,53 %) and $CVX (+0,94 %) o.

➡️ ETFs

My beloved core retirement savings unit is growing and growing. The biggest chunk, the $VWRL (+0,46 %) already accounts for 13.4% of my entire securities portfolio. All I can say here is: stubbornly and steadily save a portion of your net salary every month in the boring bread-and-butter ETFs by standing order and savings plans, then you can successfully escape the monster of old-age poverty. In my opinion, everyone should do this. I'm a fan of distributions because they provide a steady additional income. And by saving continuously, this income increases. I also promote this in my private circle. I think it's a shame that so many people respond to my efforts to raise awareness with "Yes, but ...". By constantly hiding behind excuses that are always the same, people are driving themselves into poverty in old age. Even worse are those who think shares (or securities in general) are the devil's plaything and moan about pensions. On the one hand, they don't understand how the pay-as-you-go system really works, and on the other, they completely lack basic financial education. They think they are throwing money into a certain pot from which they can later withdraw. Interestingly, this is only the case with their own portfolio, not with the state pension.

In addition to broadly diversified standard ETFs, I like to put unplanned inflows into dividend ETFs. I want cash flow that will one day cover my living expenses.

➡️ Dividends

I received 33 distributions on 14 payout days in September. I am grateful for this additional income stream.

Unfortunately, I didn't manage to write the extra article I announced in my last post about how I deal with reinvestments last month. This is planned for this month. My plans $UPS (-0,58 %) and $HTGC (+0,27 %) into the savings plans remains in place. I already teased this in the last review.

➡️ Cashback

In September, I received a €40 voucher for scanning my daily purchases, which I used to buy overhead headphones that had been on my watchlist for a while. In line with my cashback procedure, I deducted the equivalent value of the voucher in euros from the corresponding provision and transferred it to the exchange. In this way, I use the benefit of the voucher as productive capital instead of just consuming more like others. My budgets for wear and tear and provisions are thus adhered to and the benefit indirectly finances my asset accumulation.

➡️ Subsequent purchases

Thanks to a small bonus, reimbursements from health insurance and supplementary dental insurance and the aforementioned voucher, I was able to make several additional purchases last month. These include the additional purchase of 2 $UPS (-0,58 %) and 6 $HTGC (+0,27 %) shares as individual additional purchases. I am convinced by both companies. I also invested €27 in the one-off savings plans $SPYD (+0,91 %) , €49 in the $TDIV (-0,67 %) and €44 in the $FGEQ (+0,37 %) invested. Simply to increase the cash flow from the investments. Bit by bit, the tap is being turned on further and further.

➡️ P2P loans

Over a long period of time, I have managed to reduce the amount of defaulted loans on my remaining platforms to a double or single-digit sum. All the rest has been withdrawn. Of course, no progress has been made with interest or redemption payments. I wish the operators would simply write off the rest without replacement so that I could ditch all the platforms. Bondora Go & Grow is an exception to this rule. This is running smoothly, but I'm not putting any new funds into it, I'm just letting it run.

➡️ Crypto

I'm not currently doing anything here. I advise everyone to study the debt cycle and the crypto cycle in order to understand price movements in the long term.

➡️ What is really important

I was on vacation at the end of the month into October, so I spent time with my ex's kids, whose social father I was allowed to be one. First I spent several days with the kids and my ex. I went out in the evenings with the older teenage girl, mainly to give her the attention she was looking for so that she could be the focus of attention herself. In October, we spontaneously went to the capital for a few days at the child's request. This kind of time together with all the experiences helps to strengthen and rebuild the bond, which has of course suffered in recent years, for example due to physical separation. There have been so many great moments over the years, both in the province and in the big city. Enjoying the peace and quiet in the evenings with a great view, listening to what moves her and then the trip to the metropolis with its light and dark sides. And so much more.

Why am I writing this? Because it's moments like these that make life worth living and give us strength in dark times. This is even more valuable than our beloved topics of finance and investment.

➡️ Outlook

The year-end spurt begins very soon. I am hoping for price magic like last year. But the crypto cycle will be even more exciting, as we expect prices to skyrocket at the turn of the year.

Left:

Instagram profile with review: https://www.instagram.com/frugalfreisein/

Threads: https://www.threads.net/@frugalfreisein

X Profile: https://x.com/frugalfreisein

✨ Who is the beauty king? A look at the stars of the cosmetics stocks ✨

For the development (company figures), a better view and more, check out the free blog: https://topicswithhead.beehiiv.com/p/wer-ist-der-beauty-k-nig-ein-blick-auf-die-stars-der-kosmetik-aktien

Company presentation

L'Oréal, the world's leading cosmetics group, is based in France and looks back on a history of over one hundred years. Founded in 1909, its portfolio today includes more than 35 brands spanning skin care, make-up, hair care and fragrances.

e.l.f. Beauty is an up-and-coming US cosmetics company that has stood for affordable yet high-quality products since it was founded in 2004. The brand is particularly popular with younger consumers.

Beiersdorf, a traditional German company founded in 1882, specializes in skin care products. The company is particularly well known for its NIVEA brand, which is synonymous with skin care worldwide.

Estée Lauder was founded in New York in 1946 and has developed into a leading provider in the prestige beauty segment. The company owns over 30 luxury brands and is an established player on the international market.

Historical development

$$OR (-2,66 %) has grown through constant innovation and strategic acquisitions and is now represented in over 150 countries.

$ELF (+4,57 %) has experienced rapid growth in recent years, driven by digital strategies and the development of new sales channels.

$BEI (-0,46 %) NIVEA has developed from a small pharmacy into a global company. The NIVEA brand was launched in 1911 and is now one of the best-known skin care brands in the world.

$EL (-3,08 %) NIVEA grew from a small family business into an international cosmetics giant. Through international expansion and acquisitions, the company was able to diversify and constantly expand its portfolio.

Business model and core competencies

L'Oréal is based on a broadly diversified brand portfolio, intensive research and development and a strong global presence. The company operates in four divisions: Consumer Products, L'Oréal Luxe, Active Cosmetics and Professional Products.

e.l.f. Beauty focuses on affordable, trendy products and is increasingly using digital marketing strategies and e-commerce to appeal to young target groups.

Beiersdorf focuses on skin care and has extensive expertise in the development of innovative formulations. The company also operates a successful adhesives business with Tesa.

Estée Lauder specializes in prestige beauty products and excels in product innovation, luxury marketing and global distribution. The company is active in four main categories: Skincare, Makeup, Fragrance and Haircare.

Future prospects and strategic initiatives

L'Oréal is investing heavily in sustainability, digitalization and personalized beauty solutions. The company is also increasingly focusing on AI-supported technologies and expanding its portfolio in the area of "clean beauty".

e.l.f. Beauty plans to further develop its digital presence and expand into new product categories and international markets.

Beiersdorf is focusing on innovations in the area of skincare, particularly sustainable and natural products, while also investing in the digitalization of its brands.

Estée Lauder is aiming to expand into growth markets, particularly in Asia, and is focusing on strengthening its digital presence. The company is also investing in sustainable packaging solutions and "clean beauty" products.

Market position and competition

L'Oréal maintains its leading position in the global cosmetics industry with a market share of over 14%.

e.l.f. Beauty has established itself as a strong challenger in the mass market and continues to gain market share, especially among younger consumers.

Beiersdorf is a leading player in the European skincare market and competes directly with companies such as Unilever and Procter & Gamble.

Estée Lauder is the second largest cosmetics group in the world and dominates the prestige beauty segment. Its main competitors are L'Oréal Luxe and LVMH.

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The global cosmetics market was estimated at around 430 billion US dollars in 2022 and is expected to grow to over 700 billion US dollars by 2030. This growth is being driven by rising demand in emerging markets, the boom in e-commerce and the trend towards natural and sustainable products.

For the development (company figures), a better view and more, check out the free blog :https://topicswithhead.beehiiv.com/p/wer-ist-der-beauty-k-nig-ein-blick-auf-die-stars-der-kosmetik-aktien

Conclusion

L'Oréal is undoubtedly the best value in the comparison. The company shows solid growth, has an attractive net debt to EBITDA ratio and is valued roughly in line with other companies in the cosmetics sector. Although it is unfortunate that the location in France leads to additional costs due to financial transactions and withholding taxes, this disadvantage is mitigated for long-term investors by the strong positioning. Looking at the industry, which is growing by around 5% annually, L'Oréal is in an excellent position. Moreover, the company does not shy away from M&A activities and the acquisition of brands. The capital efficiency of these transactions also appears positive, especially when considering the non-declining returns on capital. Overall, L'Oréal is the best approach to be invested in the cosmetics industry. However, L'Oréal does not have to be the only stock in the portfolio. A mix of L'Oréal and possibly Unilever or P&G could provide a good mix of different industries in the consumer goods sector.

I don't want to speak against the other companies.

Estée Lauder has a strong brand, but it remains to be seen how well the company can recover from its recent difficulties. Especially in the luxury cosmetics segment, such weakness leaves the impression that something is wrong.

Beiersdorf, on the other hand, is lagging behind the market. In my opinion, the company does not have the strongest brands and is also heavily dependent on Tesa. Nevertheless, Beiersdorf is growing sufficiently to offer good prospects for the future. However, as make-up is heavily dependent on brands, I do not see Beiersdorf as a convincing investment, even if there is perhaps more potential than I would expect.

Elf Beauty is aligned with the hype and trends in the industry and has proven that they are able to actively manage this. However, the company is a little too small for me. Personally, I would prefer a broader range of brands in the cosmetics industry, which Elf does not offer to this extent.

For me, this means that an entry into L'Oréal at around 340 euros would be interesting. The value that came out of the DCF.

How do you actually see L'Oreal $OR (-2,66 %)
at the moment?

I'm very undecided about the company. What I don't like about the share is the whole anti-investor tax issue in France. And the company (sector) doesn't really fit in well with my tech portfolio.

On the other hand, the valuation is currently very attractive in historical terms. It is also a very robust share - with comparatively little volatility and drawdowns and very good profitability. A really healthy, high-quality company with strong brands.

In recent years, profit margins have been rising again quite well, which is also very interesting. From 2010 to 2020, this rose quite leisurely from 11.5% to 12.7%. From 2020 to the end of FY 2023, however, it even rose to 15%. Overall, profits are therefore also growing faster than sales at around 10% per year.

L'Oreal has therefore been increasing its dividend again for 3 years and has not lowered it for 18 years. Despite this, the share has suffered unusually heavy losses in recent months.

What is your assessment of L'Oreal? Are you invested? Would you refrain from investing? Are you considering getting in?

Finally $CRM (+4,64 %) into the depot👌 Next up $BLK
$MCD (+2,19 %)
$OR (-2,66 %)
$O (+2,65 %)
$MC (-2,6 %)
$HAG (+2,31 %)
$DTE (+0,79 %) Still a long way to go😅