First of all, thank you for taking the time to read this post🙄 it's getting a bit long😅

As you know, the market has only gone in one direction in recent weeks and months📉, but now the wind seems to have changed 📈

since my portfolio presentation last year, I have now used the correction to some changes in the portfolio, which I would like to share with you 🙃 "Unfortunately" there was no reduction in the portfolio for the time being because there were too many attractive opportunities🥹

At the beginning of April in particular, I massively reduced my cash reserves and expanded or even doubled my positions. I also made a a few new additions in my portfolio begrüßen✌️(I actually had a few stocks inspired by the dear @Aktienhauptmeister 👀) Greetings go out 😆

In my portfolio introduction post, I mentioned that I would like to $DHR (-1,09 %) against $SYK (-0,67 %) would exchange. Now it has actually been implemented ✅ necessity is the mother of invention, which is why I have also parted with $OR (-0,01 %) I also parted with

I didn't want to share all my purchases now, that would be too much, so I'll list what I bought here 🙂

I tried as best I could to increase "every" position in the portfolio a bit🧐

First of all, I'll mention the positions that were further expanded

$VWCE (-0,45 %) + ~10k

$GRAB (-1,2 %) + ~1k to (3.38)

$BLK (-0,75 %) + ~ 1.3k (678)

$ASML (-0,85 %) + ~2.7k (555,45)

$GOOGL (-1,23 %) + ~ 1.5k (124,66)

$MPWR (-0,82 %) + ~ 1.6k (409,21)

$SOFI (-1,77 %) + ~ 0.7k (7,78)

$LIN (-0,25 %) + ~ 1.1k (388,20)

$QCOM (-1,21 %) + ~ 1.5k (113,62)

$CRWD (-1,1 %) + ~ 0.9k (289,75)

$MSCI (-0,71 %) + ~1.3k (451)

$V (-0,32 %) + ~ 1.4K (274)

$AMZN (-1,12 %) + ~ 1.4K (159,74/159,34)

$MSFT (-0,93 %) + ~ 1.7k (335/337,75)

$MC (-2,33 %) + ~ 1.9k (482,31)

$NOVO B (-0,83 %) + ~ 2.5k (51,68)

$ABBV (-0,13 %) +~ 1.5k (152)

$NVDA (-2,49 %) +~ 2k (85,04)

$UNH (-5,59 %) +~ 1.7k (336,30)

$PEP (+0,15 %) +~ 1.1k (114,97)

$MRK (+0,68 %) +~ 1k (67,70)

------------------

now to the new arrivals 🤩 the ones now mentioned below I opened the positions for the first time 😇

$SYK (-0,67 %) ~ 2.1k (305,72)

$META (-1,15 %) ~ 1.4k (467,30)

$AVGO (-1,71 %) ~ 1.1k (156,76)

$ISRG (-0,32 %) ~ 1.6k (398,30)

$SPGI (-0,63 %) ~ 1.2k (403,22)

$ANET (-1,6 %) ~ 1.8k (70,50/58,65)

$UNP (-0,6 %) ~ 0.9k (187,56)

$CAT (-0,88 %) ~ 1.5k (246,50)

(I hope I have not forgotten anything)

I have invested a total of about 45k and am absolutely satisfied with my investment case. Now I have no more buffer to add 🥲 in the next few months I will build up cash again 😬

Now I'm curious to see what you've bought, my dear investors?

Like for example @Aktienhauptmeister
@Max095
@Tenbagger2024
@Simpson 🫣

thanks again for reading 🥸

in that sense

have a nice weekend ✌️

$OR (-0,01 %)

$EL (-1,22 %)

Hello everyone, I have 35 Estee Lauders$EL (-1,22 %) in the portfolio and recently bought more. Am now 20% in the red? Because of the high level of debt, I am considering selling and switching to L'Oreal $OR (-0,01 %) and switch to L'Oreal. From the chart, Estee looks like it has greater potential, but L'Oreal is much less indebted and has cash if things get rough over the next few months/years. What do you think?

Hermes $RMS (-0,97 %) (very expensive 🤑 )

Ferrari $RACE (+0,29 %)

Lululemon $LULU (-1,32 %)

Just do it $NKE (-0,69 %) (supposedly cheap at the moment, please do not reach into the falling knife)

Booking $BKNG (-1,41 %)

Marriott $MAR (-0,92 %)

Ulta Beaty $ULTA (-0,57 %) and/or L'Oreal $OR (-0,01 %) (much more expensive)

Mercadolibre $MELI (-0,54 %)

Texas Roadhouse $TXRH (-0,89 %)

Chipotle $CMG (-0,9 %)

Fast Retailing $9983 (+1,51 %)
(doesn't fit with the others on the list but I could imagine it as a speculative stock)

"Everything" very expensive, luxury.

I would be interested to know what your favorites are for a long-term investment?

Last week, L'Oreal ($OR (-0,01 %) ) held its analyst conference on its latest annual results. L'Oréal is presented as the world's leading beauty company, outperforming the market with its broad portfolio of 37 global brands.

Nicolas Hieronimus presented L'Oréal as the world leader in beauty with sales of over sales of over 43 billion euros and a profit of 6.4 billion euros. The company sells more than 7 billion products in 150 countries and employs over 90,000 people. Its current market capitalization is 180 billion euros. L'Oréal focuses exclusively on the beauty sector, particularly on value-adding categories.

The largest category in the portfolio is skin care, followed by hair care, make-up and fragrances. L'Oréal is continuously expanding its brand portfolio, for example through the acquisition of Aesop and Dr. G as well as new license agreements with Miu Miu and Jacquemus. Among the 37 brands are 18 American brands, including Maybelline, Ralph Lauren Fragrances and Kiehl's. Several of the company's brands, the so-called "Billionaire Brands", generate sales of over one billion euros.

L'Oréal is divided into four divisions: Consumer Products, Luxury, Professional Products and Dermatological Beauty. Each division addresses consumers in a different way.

The Consumer Products Division has sales of 16 billion euros and an operating margin of 21 %. Its aim is to reach as many people as possible while creating added value5. This division reaches 1.1 billion consumers.

L'Oréal Luxe is the world's leading provider of luxury cosmetics with sales of 15.6 billion euros5. This division has the largest number of brands to meet the specific expectations of luxury. L'Oréal Luxe is the number one in fragrances and has also overtaken Estée Lauder in North America.

The Professional Division has a turnover of 5 billion euros and is the oldest division. It serves 400,000 salons and 3 million independent stylists7 Redken is the number one hair care brand in the USA.

The division Dermatological Beauty division focuses on safe and healthy beauty products and generates sales of 7 billion euros. La Roche-Posay, Vichy and CeraVe are among the most prescribed brands by dermatologists worldwide. La Roche-Posay is the number three and CeraVe the number five skincare brand worldwide. CeraVe was acquired in the USA a few years ago for 140 million euros and is now the number one skincare brand on Amazon.

L'Oréal pays attention to a balanced regional distribution. Europe is the largest market with 32%, followed by North America, North Asia (of which China accounts for 17%) and the emerging markets with 17%.

In 2024, L'Oréal outperformed the market with growth of 5.1 %. The main growth drivers were Fragrances and hair care. The company outperformed the market in three out of four divisions, with the Consumer Products Division falling short of expectations. The market was outperformed in most regions, with the exception of North Asia, where growth was impacted by the situation in China. China's share of sales fell from 23% in 2022 to 17%. The emerging markets contributed 36% to growth and now account for 16% of sales.

Despite the challenges, L'Oréal was able to increase its profitability. The gross margin improved to 74.2 % and operating costs were controlled. Investments in the brand were increased and the operating margin reached 20 %. The dividend is set to rise to 7 euros per share in 2024, which corresponds to an increase of 6.1 %.

For 2025, L'Oréal expects the beauty market to grow by 4 % to 5.5 % and plans to outperform this market again. The company is focusing on a "beauty stimulus plan" with additional product launches and innovations. One important instrument is BETiq, an AI-supported tool for optimizing media allocation.

L'Oréal continues to invest in research and development (R&D) and spent 1.4 billion euros last year. The company is increasingly focusing on partnerships with start-ups and universities and is using AI to support research.

Further investments are being made in the harmonization of IT systems and operational resilience.

L'Oréal wants to conquer new territories, including the USA, emerging markets and new consumer groups. The company sees great growth potential in the USA due to demographic change and the multiracial population. The emerging markets also offer opportunities as more and more people can afford L'Oréal products.

Particular attention is being paid to new consumer groups, including Generation Z, men and the 60-plus generation. Men already account for a quarter of global beauty consumption and the older generation represents a significant proportion of demand in developed markets.

Important questions were also addressed in the subsequent Q&A session:

When asked about the most exciting developments in the beauty market, Nicolas Hieronimus replied that he was particularly excited about the growth of the middle class in emerging markets. He also mentioned the opportunities presented by men and the older generation, as well as the new possibilities offered by technology, particularly in the field of research.

David Greenberg commented on the US market and emphasized the importance of the omnichannel approach. He pointed out that L'Oréal was one of the first to adapt to the change in consumption. Despite the competition, he was optimistic as L'Oréal has a strong innovation pipeline and a broad brand portfolio.

Robert Ottenstein from Evercore ISI asked about China and travel retail in North Asia. He wanted to know which changes are cyclical and which are structural. Nicolas Hieronimus replied that the lack of confidence among Chinese consumers is currently a cyclical problem. Structurally, however, the increasing local competition had to be taken into account.

To summarize, L'Oréal had a successful year in 2024 and is well positioned to grow in the future. The company is focusing on scientific innovation, AI and tapping into new markets and consumer groups

$ELF (-0,71 %)

Short interest still at 12%

$ULTA (-0,57 %)
$OR (-0,01 %)
$EL (-1,22 %)
$MC (-2,33 %)

$ELF (-0,71 %)

• EPS: $0.74 (Est. $0.76) ❌
• Net Sales: $355.3M (Est. $329.67M) ✅ ; UP +31% YoY

Updated FY25 Guidance (Revised Downward):

• Net Sales: $1.30B-$1.31B (Prev. $1.315B-$1.335B) ❌
• Adjusted EBITDA: $289M-$293M (Prev. $304M-$308M) ❌
• Adjusted Net Income: $193M-$196M (Prev. $205M-$208M) ❌
• Adjusted EPS: $3.27-$3.32 (Prev. $3.47-$3.53) ❌
• Adjusted Effective Tax Rate: 19-20% (No Change) ❌

Other Key Metrics:

• Gross Margin: 71% (Est. 71.15%) ; UP +40 bps YoY
• SG&A Expenses: $218.2M (Est. $175.43M) ; UP +36.3% YoY
• Adjusted SG&A: $192.9M (54% of net sales)
• Net Income: $17.3M (Est. $44M)
• Adjusted Net Income: $43M
• Adjusted EPS: $0.74
• Adjusted EBITDA: $68.7M (Est. $72.57M) ; UP +16% YoY

Comment from the CEO and CFO:

• CEO Tarang Amin: "We continue to gain market share, with net revenue growth of 31% and market share gains of 220 basis points in the US. We see significant new territory opportunities in digital, color cosmetics, skincare and international markets."

• CFO Mandy Fields: "Given the weaker than expected trends in January, we are taking a cautious approach and lowering our outlook for the 2025 financial year."

$OR (-0,01 %)
$COTI (-5,49 %)
$EL (-1,22 %)
$MC (-2,33 %)
#earnings
#quartalszahlen

The world's population is getting older and older, an irreversible demographic change with considerable economic consequences.

This article is intended to provide investment ideas and impetus. The stocks mentioned do not, of course, constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of potential beneficiaries of demographic change. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.

The main source is the short analysis "How to invest as the global population ages" by Goldman Sachs [1], which, however, does not name any specific stocks.

I have also added additional sources and charts.

__________

🌍 Demographic change: growth and ageing of the world's population

The world's population will grow to almost 10 billion people by 2050. But it is not just the number of people that is increasing, their age structure is also changing dramatically. [2]

Increase in the older population:

• The proportion of people aged 60 and over is rising from 8% (1950) to 21.5% (2050).
• In 2050, 2.1 billion people will belong to the over-60 age group.

Source: [2]

Regional differences:

Europe & North America have the oldest populations & remain the most affected demographically.

Latin America, the Caribbean & Asia: The proportion of over-60s will more than double between 2015 and 2050, reaching around 25 %.

Africa remains the youngest region: in 2015, there were 21 countries worldwide with a birth rate of 5 children per woman, 19 of which were in Africa. However, it should be noted that current statistics from 2024 show that the birth rate per woman in Africa was already just 4.07 in 2023 and could fall to 2.79 by 2050. [3]

While industrialized countries are struggling with an ageing society, Africa remains the most dynamic and youngest region in the world. This development can also have an economic impact and open up new investment opportunities. [2]

Goldman Sachs also comments in the article with similar figures, according to which the global population is expected to increase by around 20% by 2050 and senior citizens will make up a disproportionate share. The number of people over the age of 65 is expected to double from 800 million to 1.6 billion during this period. [1]

In view of this demographic development, there are opportunities to benefit from precisely this trend. Opportunities lie in targeted investments in sectors that could benefit from the growing proportion of older people.

🚑 Healthcare: A growing market worth billions

Facts:

• In the USA, people over the age of 65 already account for 36% of healthcare expenditure, although they only make up 18% of the population. Age-related diseases such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes and neurological disorders are driving up costs. [1]
• Alzheimer's cases are even expected to double worldwide by 2050.

Possible profiteers:

Medical technology

• Medtronic ($MDT (+0,21 %) ) - (cardiac pacemakers, diabetes technology)
• Stryker ($SYK (-0,67 %) ) - (orthopaedic implants, surgical devices)
• Siemens Healthineers ($SHL (-0,23 %) ) - (imaging, diagnostics)

Pharmaceuticals

• Novo Nordisk ($NOVO B (-0,83 %) ) - (Diabetes & Obesity)
• Eli Lilly ($LLY (+0,12 %) ) - (Alzheimer's, Diabetes)
• Roche ($ROG (+0,76 %) ) - (Oncology, Diagnostics)

🏡 Senior Living & Care: Bottlenecks in nursing homes worldwide

Facts:

The UK has a shortfall of over 30,000 senior units by 2028. [1]

In Germany, France and Italy there is a shortage of nursing home places due to the ageing population. [1]

In the US, only 2% of people over 65 live in nursing homes, leading to an increasing demand for home care and telemedicine. [1]

Potential beneficiaries:

Care providers

• Brookdale Senior Living ($BKD (-0,82 %) ) - (senior living, care facilities)

Homecare

• ResMed ($RMD (-1,21 %) ) - (sleep apnea, ventilators)
• Fresenius Medical Care ($FME (+1,53 %) ) - (dialysis, home therapy)
• Coloplast ($COLO B (-0,64 %) ) - (ostomy care, incontinence products)

Telemedicine

• Teladoc Health ($TDOC (-0,89 %) ) - (virtual doctor visits, digital health solutions)
• Hims & Hers ($HIMS (-2,72 %) ) - (telemedicine & e-health)

Anti-Aging

• L'Oréal ($OR (-0,01 %) ) - (skin care, cosmetics)
• Estee Lauder ($EL (-1,22 %) ) - (luxury cosmetics, skin rejuvenation)
• Revance Therapeutics ($RVNC ) - (Botox alternative, wrinkle treatment)

🚢 Leisure & consumption: The new "silver economy"

The following chart shows the distribution of wealth in Germany depending on the age of the main income earner. [4]

It is clear that older people tend to have higher wealth than younger age groups. This is reflected in the significantly higher values for the percentiles for age groups aged 50 and over. In particular, the groups aged between 50 and 74 have the highest assets.

The trends are also similar internationally:

• The wealth of older people is 3x that of millennials.
• Over-60s control more than 50% of consumer spending in many developed countries.
• The global silver economy could reach a volume of USD 15 trillion by 2030 (Oxford Economics).

This observation underlines the economic importance of the older generations and their central role in wealth distribution and consumer spending.

Possible beneficiaries:

Luxury

• LVMH ($MC (-2,33 %) ) - (fashion, jewelry, wine & spirits)
• Hermès ($RMS (-0,97 %) ) - (Exclusive Fashion & Accessories)
• Richemont ($CFR (-1,06 %) ) - (Swiss luxury watches & jewelry)

Cruise (Over 60s book a third of all cruises worldwide [1])

• Royal Caribbean ($RCL (-0,16 %) ) - (Cruises for seniors & families)
• Carnival ($CCL (-1,33 %) ) - (mass market cruises)
• Norwegian Cruise Line ($NCLH (-0,74 %) ) - (premium cruises)

Motorhome manufacturers/ recreational vehicles (47% of motorhome users are over 55 years old, In the UK, two thirds of over 55s have a motorcycle license, which may indicate a growing market for motorcycles and accessories. [1])

• Thor Industries ($THO (-0,74 %) ) - (motorhomes, campers)
• Winnebago ($WGO (+0 %) ) - (motorhomes & caravans)
• Harley-Davidson ($HOG (-0,61 %) ) - (motorcycles and entry-level electric motorcycles)

🤖 Technology & automation: solution to the labor shortage

Facts:

The labor shortage caused by an aging society is becoming a global challenge. Automation, AI and robotics could help close the skills gap. [1]

Profiteers:

• ABB ($ABBNY (-0,1 %) ) - (industrial robotics, automation)
• Fanuc ($6954 (+1,77 %) ) - (robotics, factory automation)
• Intuitive Surgical ($ISRG (-0,32 %) ) - (robot-assisted surgery)
• Siemens ($SIE (-2,29 %) )- (automation & also medical technology)

🧠 Conclusion:

Demographic change offers long-term investment opportunities. Early investment in the right sectors can benefit from rising spending on health, care, leisure and technology.

I myself am still looking for one or two individual investments and am a little annoyed that I didn't get into Hims & Hers earlier, although I have been on the verge of doing so several times. Apart from the luxury segment with LVMH, the portfolio also includes Siemens as a conglomerate in the field of automation.

Do you explicitly take demographic change into account in your investments, e.g. in the form of individual shares?

Which shares do you have in your portfolio or do you still see them as an opportunity?

Thanks for reading!

_________

Sources:

[1] https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/how-to-invest-as-the-global-population-ages

[2] https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/zahlen-und-fakten/globalisierung/52811/demografischer-wandel/

[3] https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1343516/umfrage/entwicklung-der-fertilitaetsrate-in-afrika/

[4]

https://www.iwd.de/artikel/mit-dem-alter-waechst-das-vermoegen-489710/