Puestos
467$INTC (-2,98 %) 85€ since some weeks. Will it reach it? 80% yes
$SAB (-0,78 %) 3.3€ will not reach that low till end of the year
and also some CC ETF that I like. Nasdaq 100 and $WINC (-1,03 %)
not because I understand the technicals just because is the price that I want to buy. Designing and selling electronics this days as side job
Hock Tan, CEO of Broadcom, said Monday in Singapore: “A lot of investors have no clue what they’re investing in.” They set “very extreme expectations, only to find out that it’s almost like they’re in a casino.”
He does not see chips, memory, or power as the industry’s real bottleneck: “What I think might be the biggest constraint is capital.”
Broadcom forecasts for the fiscal year 2028 AI semiconductor revenue of $230 billion, up from $58 billion this year—a fourfold increase (+396.5%), for which, in his words, the supply is secured.
The capital shortage is now affecting Broadcom as well, and the company is resolving it on its own: Anthropic’s IPO prospectus indicates that it up to $42 billion with Broadcom as a convertible bond from Broadcom. Thus, Broadcom is effectively financing its own chips.
All in all, , this “casino” statement is not a warning about AI expansion, but rather a description of its biggest bottleneck—and that bottleneck lies not in the technology, but in the balance sheet. The statement can also be seen as an argument to justify the—rightly criticized—recycling of funds for AI expansion.
Sources:
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/01/broadcom-lending-anthropic-42-billion-chips-reuters.html
What do you think of my portfolio performance for the last 2 years?
$KO (-0,55 %)
$VWRL (-0,25 %)
$VUSA (-0,22 %)
$VEUR (+1,12 %)
$VOW (-0,37 %)
$ENI (-1,07 %)
$BAYN (-0,99 %)
$INTC (-2,98 %)
$SAN (+1,4 %)
$FCT (-0,37 %)
$SL (+0,59 %)
$ISP (+0,39 %)
$SHEL (-0,47 %)
$LDO (+2,79 %)
$QBTS (+5,46 %)
$INTC (-2,98 %)
$SKHY (-1,14 %)
• Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan warns the memory-chip shortage could worsen further.
• Tan says memory prices have already risen 5x to 7x.
• Talks with SK Hynix would potentially expand U.S.-based memory production capacity.
$SOXX (-1,37 %) semiconductor mix uptrend in midterm this season and market trend still get more point to high position from 52 weeks low on 254 and high on 655.
Stock market on high demand and performance :
• $SNDK (-1,61 %) , $SKHY (-1,14 %) , $AVGO (-1,2 %) , $STX (-4,72 %) , $WDC (-2,94 %) (tier 1)
• $INTC (-2,98 %) , $AMD (-2,13 %) , $NVDA (-2,34 %) , $TSM (-2,59 %) , $CBRS (tier 2)
ETF and Option on High trends and Fast speed :
• $MU (+1,5 %) , $LITE (-2,65 %) , $ASML (-0,26 %) , $MRVL (-2,04 %) , $NBIS (+0,44 %) , $SIMO (-2,99 %)
Semiconductor Chip Ecosystem Market still on top list get performance every years and continues keep on high demand for supercycle in Ai supercomputer. Its on thats semiconductor in CAGR get 8.8% to 2030 still possible makes uptrend every years, however in wave cycle on traditional event from average monthly return, semiconductor get works to drive with cycle time frame.
Alphabet $GOOGL (-0,22 %) exceeded earnings estimates by 214 percent. The stock price then rose by 0.65 percent.
Coeur Mining $CDE (+1,94 %) missed expectations by 54 percent during the same period. The stock rose 11 percent.
Since the end of May, I’ve had every quarterly earnings report from my stock universe automatically recorded, along with the stock price reaction the following day. A total of 122 reports were collected between May 27 and August 20. This isn’t a simulation; the data was collected as events unfolded.
The common assumption goes like this: A company beats estimates—that’s good news—so the stock price rises. None of these three steps holds true.
1️⃣ Almost all beat estimates
112 out of 122 were above expectations. That’s 91.8 percent. Ten missed.
The rate says nothing about the companies. It says something about the estimates. Analysts lower their forecasts in the weeks leading up to the earnings release because the companies prepare them accordingly. What’s left is a bar that practically everyone clears. Anyone who reads “exceeded expectations” has learned about as much as they would from the news that a train departed on time.
2️⃣ The stock price falls anyway
Of the 112 companies that beat estimates, the stock price fell in 65 cases—that’s 58 percent.
On average, the reaction after a “beat” was a decline of 0.03 percent, and after a “miss,” an increase of 0.53 percent. The median shows the same pattern: -0.47 versus -0.28. Both figures are close to zero, so I wouldn’t base a trading rule on them. With only ten misses, the second figure is insignificant anyway. But the trend is consistent in both calculations.
3️⃣ Even a big surprise doesn’t help
It might seem obvious that two percent above the estimate isn’t enough and that a real outlier is needed. The correlation between the magnitude of the surprise and the price reaction is minus 0.042. That’s just noise. Alphabet $GOOGL (-0,22 %) 214 percent above estimates, stock price up 0.65. Warner Bros. Discovery $WBD 154 percent above estimates, stock up 1.44. Centene $CNC (+0,33 %) 133 percent above estimate, price down 1.59. Intel $INTC (-2,98 %) 95 percent above estimates, down 7.89.
There’s movement, but it’s coming from elsewhere
NetApp rose $NTAP (-3,93 %) up 22.4 percent, Teradyne $TER (-5,02 %) up 14.4 percent, and Seagate $STX (-4,72 %) up 11.4 percent. On the downside, Reddit $RDDT (+6,79 %) was down 21.0 percent, Ciena $CIEN (-1,18 %) down 8.9 percent, Broadcom $AVGO (-1,2 %) down 7.9 percent, and Apple $AAPL (-0,85 %) down 7.4.
These are double-digit daily movements. Reddit $RDDT (+6,79 %) beat estimates by 30 percent and lost a fifth of its value. Broadcom $AVGO (-1,2 %) was 1.7 percent above estimates and lost nearly 8 percent. The number in the headline doesn’t explain any of these movements. It’s about the outlook, margins, and a statement in the earnings call.
What it isn’t
Three months constitute an earnings season, not a cycle. In a period of falling earnings, the 92 percent rate would likely look different. I measure only the day after the announcement, not the two weeks that follow. My universe consists of large-cap stocks from fourteen indices; with small-cap stocks, things can play out differently. I’ll keep collecting data; in a year, I’ll have four quarters.
For me, this means: Anyone who buys after a report because expectations were exceeded is reacting to information that everyone has and that almost always comes to pass. The reverse scenario is more interesting—when a stock price reacts strongly even though the numbers were unremarkable. That means there’s something else in the report.
❓ Do any of you deliberately trade around earnings reports? And does anyone have an explanation for why misses, on average, fare better than beats?
👇 Leave your thoughts in the comments!
➡️ I do analyses like this regularly; in between, I post the monthly Wikifolio update.
🗞️ Newsletter: codeandcapitalquant.beehiiv.com
📈 Wikifolio: https://www.wikifolio.com/de/de/w/wf0gquant6
Not investment advice; based on my own research. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
$INTC (-2,98 %) or this impatient man should wait?
the market is a transmission of money from the impatient to the patient and relaxed folks said the old man
The server systems of Spitzenchips are affected Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell, which will be delivered . The amount varies depending on the chip generation and memory configuration. The reason cited is the extremely high prices for RAM ($MU (+1,5 %)$SKHY (-1,14 %)$005930). As a result, part of the value creation in the AI stack is shifting downward—away from the computing chip and toward memory. Just how much of this NVIDIA itself is absorbing is likely to be reflected in the gross margin in the quarterly report on August 26 .
Overall, , this affects hyperscalers like Neoclouds and AI labs, which consequently face even higher costs —because Nvidia chips represent the largest cost factor in AI data centers.
Consequently, GPU rental prices will also continue to rise, which will have a neutral effect for these companies.
The extremely expensive financing, which continues to be weighed down by macroeconomic uncertainty. This price increase further adds fuel to the fire. 🔥
$GOOGL (-0,22 %)$AMD (-2,13 %)$INTC (-2,98 %)$MSFT (+0,19 %)$META (-1,01 %)$IREN (+0,15 %)$CRWV (+5,04 %)$NBIS (+0,44 %)$AVGO (-1,2 %)
Source:
$FLXD (+1,82 %) 100€ monthly following @Immoinvestor1981 at smaller scale
$IWDA (-0,1 %) same strategy
$TDIV (+0,61 %) same strategy each 3rd day of the month. Leave it untouched and don't touch anything for 10 years
Add some more to any of the 3 only in case I've some additional funds otherwise just let it be. Let's see how it goes. Would you recommend any other 3?
All the rest in my portfolio except $INTC (-2,98 %) are quite risky bets with money I can afford to loose
