TSMC

The ASML share fell 20% after after poor quarterly figures and a lowered outlook. Major customers such as Samsung and Intel are buying fewer machines because they are postponing investments. Buy, hold or sell ASML? What do you think?

In the Podcast episode 61 "Buy High. Sell Low" we talked about ASML in detail. Link in the profile description.

$ASML (+0,74 %)
$INTC (+0,04 %)
$005930
$AMD (-0,04 %)
$NVDA (+0,07 %)
$2330
$AMAT (+0,73 %)
$MU (+0,21 %)
$KLAC (+0,26 %)
$LRCX (+0,03 %)

Week in review 12.10.

All-time highs for S&P 500, Dow Jones, Air Products & Chemicals, American Express, Arista Networks, Bank of New York Mellon, BlackRock, Caterpillar, CAVA, Fiserv, GE Vernova, Goldman Sachs, Mastercard, Morgan Stanley, Motorola Solutions, Piper Sandler, Royal Caribbean, Uber, Unum

52-week highs for Carnival, Commerzbank, GE Aerospace, Hilton Worldwide, MicroStrategy, Norwegian Cruise, Palantir, Ralph Lauren, Robinhood Markets, Sea Ltd. , Shake Shack, Tangier, Teledyne

Tesla Cybercab / Robotaxi planned from 2026 for under 30,000$. In addition, an autonomous bus with 20 seats was presented, share falls -8.1%, market is disappointed, -19% 1-year performance

Nvidia partner Hon Hai increases capacity to meet "crazy" AI demand, Nvidia shares +8.3% this week, +176% 1-year performance

AMD unveils MI325X AI accelerator to compete with Nvidia's H200, customers include Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, Dell, Oracle, Meta, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Supermicro, Lenovo and Databricks, AMD launches EPYC 5th Gen Datacenter CPU to compete with Intel's Xeon, AMD currently has 34% market share in Datacenter CPUs, MI350 coming in 2025 to compete with Nvidia's Blackwell, AMD stock drops -4%, apparently sell the news event, +45% 1-year performance

92% of desktop processor sales at major German online retailer Mindfactory were from AMD last week, Intel only at 8% share and -36% 1-year performance

TSMC with good quarterly figures, share price rises slightly, +97% 1-year performance

JPMorgan with good quarterly figures, share +5.1%, +48% 1-year performance

Wells Fargo with good quarterly figures, share +6.5%, +49% 1-year performance

PepsiCo and Samsung with poor quarterly figures, shares fall slightly

Amazon Pharmacy announces same-day delivery of prescription drugs in 20 more US states and expands its service to almost half of the states in 2025, +43% % 1-year performance

Jefferies says Apple's hopes for an AI phone are overdone and high expectations are premature, Hold rating, +26% 1-year performance

The situation is similar at Microsoft after Oppenheimer downgraded its rating from "Outperform" to "Perform", it was the second such downgrade by analysts in recent weeks, AI sales are overestimated and shares have underperformed since July due to "AI fatigue", plus losses at OpenAI, +26% 1-year performance

Two Google scientists from the subsidiary DeepMind receive the Nobel Prize in Chemistry, they developed the AI model "AlphaFold2", which can be used to predict the structures of all 200 million known proteins, the AI is used in 190 countries, for example in the clarification of antibiotic resistance or the use of enzymes to break down plastics, Alphabet shareholders like this, +12% 1-year performance

Inperial Brands increases dividend, now pays out quarterly and buys back shares, share price rises 5%, +36% 1-year performance

FTX - customers will soon get their balances paid out after the crypto exchange went bankrupt in 2022 and the management was imprisoned

Shortseller Hindenburg Research with allegations of fraud and safety concerns for children at gaming service Roblox, share price falls -6%, even -70% since November 2021

After two very positive weeks, China stocks fall like a flash in the pan as the market expected more stimulus from the Chinese dictator. Dictator, Hang Seng with worst day since the 2008 financial crisis, this week

China strengthens real estate sector and signals more spending ahead, Finance Minister announces measures to support real estate sector today and government would now have more room to borrow and increase deficit, China also announces issuance of special government bonds today to bolster capitalization of its largest state-owned banks, Printer is coming

Fitch downgrades France's credit rating to negative due to higher deficits, government debt expected to rise to 118.5% of GDP by 2028

FTSE Russell: Greek equities on track for upgrade to developed markets, FTSE Russell to provide update as part of March 2025 review, Greek equity index up 53% since start of 2023

Porsche sells 7% fewer cars due to China slump by -29%, -5% North America but +7% Germany & Europe, -21% % 1-year performance

Deutsche Telekom increases dividend and launches share buyback program for € 2 bn, highest share price in 23 years, +33% 1-year performance

Commerzbank reaches highest share price since the euro crisis in 2011, +61% 1-year performance

Bayer with new lawsuit in the USA over PCBs, share price -7%, -41% 1-year performance

German industrial order intake fell unexpectedly sharply by 5.8% in August compared to the previous month

E.on CEO expects energy prices to rise in the long term thanks to higher taxes & levies and the world's stupidest energy policy

The Ampel expects the economy to shrink for the second year in a row, revising its GDP forecast for 2024 from +0.3% to -0.2%, only the second consecutive year of shrinking GDP since the fall of communism in 1990

After the pension insurance, the German long-term care insurance is also bankrupt, as recipients of citizens' benefits are not paying in and society is ageing, Lauterbach therefore wants to increase the monthly contribution for long-term care for all workers, so soon less net from gross again

" If you want to read a review like this every week, leave a like and subscribe.

$NVDA (+0,07 %)
$AMD (-0,04 %)
$TSLA (+0,15 %)
$CBR
$INTC (+0,04 %)
$2330
$JPM (+0,16 %)
$WFC (+0,15 %)
$PEP (-0,1 %)
$AMZN (+0,37 %)
$GOOGL (+0,96 %)
$GOOGL (+0,96 %)
$AAPL (+0,29 %)
$MSFT (+0,08 %)
$IMB (-0,48 %)
$CNUA (-2,88 %)
$941
$9988 (-2,18 %)
$700 (-1,11 %)
$1211 (-2,18 %)
$P911 (+0,3 %)
$PAH3 (-0,26 %)
$DTE (+0,66 %)
$BAYN (+0,48 %)
$EOAN (+1,68 %)
$PLTR (+0,06 %)
$RBLX
$BLK

Semiconductor shares since their 52-week highs

-61% Intel $INTC (+0,04 %)

-54% Aixtron $AIXA (+1,95 %)

-45% STMicroelectronics $STMPA (+0,18 %)

-44% Micron Technology $MU (+0,21 %)

-37% Globalfoundries $GFS (+0 %)

-36% BE Semiconductor $OXVE

-33% Lam Research $LRCX

-29% AMD $AMD (-0,04 %)

-29% Qualcomm $QCOM (+0,09 %)

-28% ON Semiconductor $ON (+0,24 %)

-27% ASML $ASML (+0,74 %)

-26% Applied Materials $AMAT (+0,73 %)

-26% Elmos Semiconductor $ELG (+0,56 %)

-24% Microchip Techn. $MCHP (-0,84 %)

-23% ARM $ARM (+0,47 %)

-23% Synopsys $SNPS (+1,01 %)

-23% Infineon $IFX (+1,55 %)

-22% NXP Semiconductors $NXPI (-0,7 %)

-20% Cadence Design $CDNS (-1,15 %)

-17% Nvidia $NVDA (+0,07 %)

-17% VanEck Semicon. ETF $IE00BMC38736 (+0,48 %)

-17% Nordic Semi $NRS

-17% KLA Corporation $KLAC (+0,26 %)

-13% Marvell Technology $MRVL (+0,13 %)

-12% TSMC $2330

-11% Broadcom $AVGO (+0,13 %)

-7% Texas Instruments $TXN (+0,31 %)

-6% Monolithic Power Syst. $MPWR (-1,05 %)

>> Which stocks are you invested in and how are they performing? Which of these stocks do you have on your watchlist? #semiconductor
#halbleiter

To the people who are invested in the semiconductor/processor sector, where or how are you invested?

What are your favorite stocks in this area?

$IFX (+1,55 %)
$QCOM (+0,09 %)
$AVGO (+0,13 %)
$2330

19.07.2024 +++ Netflix continues to grow very strongly +++ TSMC with profit-taking +++ Airbus with "Lead" savings program +++ Sartorius with official profit warning +++

Netflix
$NFLX (+0,16 %) continues to grow unabated and wants to steal more viewers from traditional television. In the past quarter, the video streaming market leader gained a good eight million new customer households. There was also significant growth in sales and profits. Netflix also continues to reject bundled offers because it sees itself as a strong brand!

The shares of TSMC
$2330 fell by 2.0% despite strong results for the second quarter. High demand has given the chip manufacturer a jump in profits. Turnover rose by 40 percent to 674 billion Taiwan dollars. However, the share had recently benefited greatly from the high demand for semiconductors for AI applications and had risen to an all-time high.

The aircraft manufacturer Airbus
$AIR (-0,24 %) is clearly preparing for strong headwinds in its aircraft division. After recently informing investors that things are not going as well as expected this year, employees are now being prepared for a cost-cutting program. Although the plan is not backed up with figures, the program, called "Lead", is apparently to be implemented stringently.

The profit warning that everyone knew about is finally here. Sartorius
$SRT (+1,13 %) lowered its forecast for the year as a whole yesterday evening due to weak demand. In the first half of the year, sales amounted to EUR 1.68 billion, down 2.2 % on the previous year, although the second quarter in isolation already contributed slight growth of 3.6 %. Operating EBITDA fell by 8.8 % to EUR 471 million.

Friday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

Small expiry day

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Suedzucker EUR 0.90

Procter & Gamble 1.01 USD

Colgate-Palmolive 0.50 US

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

13:00 American Express quarterly figures

13:00 Travelers Cos quarterly figures

13:00 Schlumberger quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 Sartorius Results 1H

08:00 Yara quarterly figures

08:00 Burberry Q1 sales

09:00 Sartorius PK

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: Producer prices June

FORECAST: +0.1% yoy/-1.6% yoy previously: 0.0% yoy/-2.2% yoy

• 08:00 UK: Retail Sales June

OUTLOOK: -0.5% yoy/+0.2% yoy previous: +2.9% yoy/+1.3% yoy

The Biden administration is considering tougher trade rulesin particular the Foreign Direct Product Rulein order to China's access to advanced semiconductor technology further restrict China's access to advanced semiconductor technology. The FDPR would allow the USA to restrict the export of foreign products that contain even a small amount of American technology.

This potential measure has led to a significant drop in shares from several chip manufacturers.

• NVIDIA ($NVDA (+0,07 %)) fell in pre-market trading by 4%
• Supermicro ($SMCI) fell by 5%
• AMD ($AMD (-0,04 %)) fell by 5,6%
• Qualcomm ($QCOM (+0,09 %)) fell by 6,1%

Other companies affected are:

• ASML ($ASML (+0,74 %)) fell by over 6%
• Tokyo Electron ($8035 (+3,73 %)) -7,4%
• TSMC ($2330) fell by 2,3%

The USA reportedly has allies such as the Netherlands and Japan have called for the export of advanced chip manufacturing equipment to China. Failure to comply with this request could lead to the activation of the FDPR rules lead to the activation of the FDPR rules. The potential trade restrictions and the geopolitical tensions surrounding Taiwan have and will lead to considerable fluctuations in the chip industry.

What is your current opinion of the SoftBank Group

($9984 (-0,2 %) )? I would like to give you a few arguments that currently speak in favor of the SoftBank Group and would then like to hear your opinion!

1) The telecommunications business is very stable and profitable, which creates stability. Research is being conducted on 6G technology and potential market launch.

2) The SoftBank Group owns about 90% of the British chip designer ARM ($ARM (+0,47 %) ), but its own market capitalization is only 60% of the ARM shares held (in addition to all other assets).

3) The so-called Vision Fund (VF) was after the collapse of the technology sector in 2022 was not very successful and caused the company losses in the billions. For this reason, a reorientation is taking place and less emphasis is being placed on start-up financing (VC) and parts of VF are now being sold. The focus is now almost entirely on AI and chips which are now being invested in aggressively.

4) The biggest trump card here is the chip company ARMaround which the new strategy will revolve. This year there have been several announcements in connection with ARM. By the spring 2025 ARM is to develop the prototype of an AI chip which will be available from fall of the same year. SoftBank is reportedly in talks with TSMC ($2330 ), which is to produce the specially developed chips. It is widely assumed that the AI chip will be developed by ARM, but that the business will later be spun off and placed under the SoftBank Group.

5) Another vision is the creation of an NVIDIA competitor. There is a new project called "Izanagi" (Japanese God of Creation), a 100 billion dollar start-up for AI chips, all based on ARM chip technology. SoftBank is to invest 30 billion itself and 70 billion from investors, most likely from the Middle East (customer neutrality has always been one of their strengths). NVIDIA, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, AMD, Google, Samsung (etc.) are all customers of ARM and use their technology (they buy licenses), especially with regard to AI/data centers and ARM's monopoly area of cell phones. SoftBank is now trying to take advantage of this untapped potential of its own technology and instead of just licensing it, take full advantage of it itself. This is also supported by new acquisitions; at the moment, for example, they are trying to acquire the British AI chip start-up Graphcore (often referred to as NVIDIA's European competitor) from England which has recently been in financial difficulties and is therefore an attractive takeover target. It would be perfectly suited to synergies with ARM, which is also based in the UK, and which it may then be placed under.

6) Regardless of this grand vision, there are also many smaller AI projects. For example, they support and invest in the AI search engine Perplexity AIwhich is intended to compete with Google. They are also involved in the start-up Tempus AI with which they have now established a joint venture which will improve the healthcare system into the future with AI data analysis. Another neat AI project is an AI that makes sure that angry customers on the phone are treated with care. customer service sound completely normal, so that they are exposed to less psychological stress. Also recently, a collaboration with Deutsche Telekom and other partners to create an AI specifically for the telecommunications sector. Investments are also to be made in renewable energies to cover the future power requirements of AI data centers. (Etc. Etc. Etc.)

7) Another interesting investment is in the newly founded joint venture Rapidusin which SoftBank and other large Japanese companies (Sony, NTT.....), with the support of the government and IBMhave joined forces to develop state-of-the-art 2nm chips in Japan in the near future. This is an interesting investment, especially in connection with the ambition to produce its own AI chips.

8) Last but not least, it does not hurt to note that the SoftBank Group is heavily invested in India to position itself in the technology sector in this significantly growing economy. In China, they have recently scaled back their investment activities somewhat, for example by selling the majority of their Alibaba shares.

Minus point: Very high debt of ¥15.39 trillion (approx. €90 billion), which is offset by assets worth around €300 billion and in Japan there is also no interest on this debt, or at least microscopically low interest.

ConclusionAs a conglomerate with an incredible number of holdings, it is not easy to understand the structures of the SoftBank Group. Nevertheless, they are not exactly stuck in the past, but are fully embracing the AI age and have set themselves the goal of being at the forefront.

With projects such as "Izanagi", they have big plans that now need to be realized. But with the chip specialist ARM under their control, plenty of cash, contacts in the industry and a good connection to financial backers in the Middle East, the project doesn't seem so unrealistic.

Other activities in the field of chips and AI, such as the Rapidus joint venture, ARM's new AI chip, projects with Tempus AI, Perplexity AI and Deutsche Telekom, are already in the process of being realized.

All in all, there are great opportunities here in the medium to long term, although there is of course a certain residual risk, but I remain positive that they will succeed, and if they do, then they will succeed.

+++ $NVDA (+0,07 %) - $MSFT (+0,08 %)
$GOOG (+0,83 %)
$META (+0,06 %) - Memes

Background: 50% of Nvidia's turnover comes from GAFAM values!

ASML - $ASML (+0,74 %) sells the iron for the shovel for $10

TSMC - $2330 assembles the blade for $50

NVDA - $NVDA (+0,07 %) sells the blade for $5000

Jensen Huang, CEO of the $NVDA (+0,07 %) says that Taiwan, also known as$2330 is at the center of the global technology supply chain and is needed by his company.

China startet Militärübungen rund um TaiwanHow do you see the current situation in Taiwan? Will something happen here?