While Juan von lieben @Tenbagger2024 left Japan on his way to Norway, I stayed in Japan and would like to introduce you to another company from my watchlist in the semiconductor sector.

Today we are talking about Lasertec Corp $6920 (+4,27 %)

Lasertec Corp $6920 (+4,27 %) 👀The eye of the semiconductor revolution

Lasertec $6920 (+4,27 %) is no ordinary chip supplier. It is the only company in the world capable of testing the extremely complex masks for EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography. Without Lasertec $6920 (+4,27 %) there would be no iPhones, no high-performance AI servers and no progress in 2nm chips.

1. the business model: "The Monopoly Gatekeeper" 🔬

Lasertec $6920 (+4,27 %) operates in a technological stratosphere in which there is hardly any competition.

- The EUV lever: ASML $ASML (+2,14 %) builds the exposure machines. But before a mask (the "negative" of the chip) goes into the machine, it has to be checked for atomic defects. Lasertec $6920 (+4,27 %) has a market share of almost 100% for certain market share of almost 100 %💯

- Actinic Inspection: Lasertec uses the same EUV wavelength for inspection as the exposure machine itself. This "Actinic" technology is extremely difficult to copy and forms the ultimate technological moat.

- Service revenues: As the machines are highly complex, Lasertec generates massive revenues through maintenance and software updates over the entire life cycle (10-15 years).

Deep Dive: Lasertec - The physical frontier of semiconductor manufacturing

1. the technological "miracle": Actinic EUV Inspection

To understand why Lasertec $6920 (+4,27 %) has a monopoly, you have to look at EUV lithography lithography. At wavelengths of 13.5 nanometers (EUV), light behaves extremely difficult: it is absorbed by almost all materials, even air. This is why the entire process takes place in a vacuum.

- The problem: Conventional inspection devices use deep ultraviolet light (DUV). However, DUV does not "see" certain defects on an EUV mask because the mask behaves differently under EUV light (phase jumps, reflections).

- The Lasertec solution (ABICS series): Lasertec $6920 (+4,27 %) was the first and so far only company to develop a light source that uses EUV light for inspection (hence "Actinic" - under real working conditions). They shoot EUV photons at the mask and analyze the reflected image.

- The moat: Mastering this light source and the optics that direct EUV beams without significant losses is a feat of physics. Competitors rely on electron beam technology (e-beam), which is precise but 10 to 100 times slower. slower than the light process from Lasertec $6920 (+4,27 %)

2. the growth pillar: AI chips & sub-2nm era

- Next generation (GAA): The transition to new transistor structures (Gate-All-Around) requires even more precise masks. Lasertec has already completed the systems for 2nm production (planned from the end of 2025/2026).

- Semiconductor sovereignty: As the USA, Japan and Europe are building their own chip factories (fabs), each new location must order Lasertec machines. The company benefits from the global subsidy race.

2b. The "GAA cycle" (Gate-All-Around) - the next share price driver

We are currently in the transition from FinFET transistors to GAA transistors (for 2nm and below).

- Complexity explosion: With GAA structures, the chip designs are so delicate that the masks are even more susceptible to the smallest impurities.

- Higher inspection rate: It used to be enough to randomly inspect a mask. With 2nm AI chips, the mask must be after each exposure cycle (reticle cleaning) in order not to jeopardize the yield. This massively increases the number of Lasertec machines required per factory.

3 The "hidden" risks (bear-case deepening)

- Concentration risk: As only three companies (TSMC $2330 Samsung $005930 Intel $INTC (+7,11 %) ) operate real high-end EUV fabs, Lasertec is extremely dependent on the investment decisions of these three giants.

- Politics: Japan has tightened export restrictions on high-end chip equipment to China. Lasertec is losing part of the market as a result, but is compensating for this with the boom in the USA and Japan itself.

3. the hard facts (key figures 2025/26) 📊

- Market capitalization: approx. 2.8 - 3.1 trillion. JPY (approx. 19-21 billion USD).

- Profitability: An operating margin of over 35 % and a return on equity (ROE) of often over 45 %. These are figures that are normally only achieved by software companies.

- Cash position: Lasertec $6920 (+4,27 %) is virtually debt-free and finances all of its research from current cash flow.

Lasertec $6920 (+4,27 %) has experienced explosive profit growth in recent years, driven by the roll-out of High-NA EUV technology.

- Turnover (forecast 2026): approx. 240 - 250 billion JPY (A massive jump from approx. JPY 153 bn in 2023).

- Operating margin: This is constant at 35 % to 40 %. By way of comparison, a traditional mechanical engineering company such as DMG Mori is often at 8-10 %. Lasertec $6920 (+4,27 %) plays in a league of its own.

- Net profit: Expected for 2026 approx. JPY 66 - 70 billion.

- R&D ratio (R&D): Lasertec invests approx. 10-12% of the turnover directly into research. This is its protective shield against the competition.

2. the strength of the balance sheet

The company has an extremely "clean" and conservative financial position:

- Equity ratio: Is a phenomenal ~50 % to 60 %.

- Net cash position: Lasertec $6920 (+4,27 %) has no significant bank debt. On the contrary: they are sitting on high cash balances, which they are using to finance the pre-production of the extremely expensive EUV mask testing devices.

- Stocks (inventories): An important indicator at Lasertec! Inventories are often very high (currently around JPY 100+ billion). This is positive: These are machines already in progress, for which customers (TSMC $2330 /Intel $INTC (+7,11 %) ) have already been received.

3. profitability - the "magic numbers"

- ROE (return on equity): Mostly over 45 %. This means that Lasertec $6920 (+4,27 %) works extremely efficiently with the shareholders' money.

- ROIC (return on invested capital): Is often over 30 %. This shows that every yen coin invested in the development of new machines yields an extremely high return.

The "moat" in the balance sheet: order backlog

At Lasertec $6920 (+4,27 %) looks less at past sales and more at the order backlog. order backlog:

- This is currently at a record level (well over JPY 400 billion).

- Significance: Lasertec $6920 (+4,27 %) is effectively booked for the next 2 years is effectively booked out. Even if the global economy weakens slightly tomorrow, the chip giants will have to reduce their orders in order not to be left behind in the technological race.

4. why is the share exciting? (Bull case) 🚀

1. Irreplaceability: There is no "switching" to a competitor product. Anyone who builds state-of-the-art chips must buy from Lasertec.

2. AI growth: As AI chips become larger and more complex, the susceptibility of masks to errors increases - and with it the need for Lasertec test equipment.

3. Efficiency: The company has an extremely lean organization. A small workforce generates billions in turnover.

⚠️ RISKO (Bear-Case)

"The perfection trap

- Valuation risk (P/E ratio 50+): The market is pricing in a "perpetual monopoly". If growth falls from 30 % to 15 %, there is a risk of a massive contraction in the multiple - the share price could correct due to the valuation alone, even if profits continue to rise.

- Concentration risk: Over 70% of sales are attributable to just three customers (TSMC $2330 Intel $INTC (+7,11 %) , Samsung $005930 ) If Intel $INTC (+7,11 %) postpones its 2nm roadmap, Lasertec will immediately feel the impact on its books.

- Technological attack: US giant KLA Corp $KLAC (+6,29 %) is working flat out on competing e-beam technologies. As soon as the monopoly becomes a duopoly, margins shrink.

- Geopolitics & currency: Export restrictions to China and a possible appreciation of the yen (JPY) are unpredictable "black swans" for the Japanese export pearl.

🛡️ EARNINGS-PREP: LASERTEC $6920 (+4,27 %)

Timing: Thursday, 04/30/2026 (JST) - Q3 results.

This is the moment of truth. Lasertec $6920 (+4,27 %) raised its guidance in January and the share price has risen like a rocket since then (~€242 / JPY45,000). Now the company has to deliver to justify the valuation of P/E 51.

1. date & consensus (what the market expects)

- Date: April 30, 2026

- Revenue (consensus): ~ JPY46.07bn (+15.6% YoY)

- EPS (consensus): ~JPY175.76 (+69% YoY)

- FY 2026 Guidance (Revised): Revenue JPY 220 bn | Op. profit JPY 100 bn.

2. CORE METRICS

- Order backlog (order backlog): This is the most important figure. The backlog recently stood at ~297bn JPY. As sales are expected to decline as planned in FY26 (-12.5% YoY), the order intake show that the recovery for 2027 is already rolling.

- High-NA EUV Adoption: Watch for comments on Intel's and TSMC's high-NA plans. Lasertec is the sole bucket-wheel excavator here. Delays at chipmakers = poison for Lasertec.

- MATRICS X712 series: The new system was launched in March 2026. Initial comments on customer feedback are critical for momentum.

5th evaluation & conclusion (April 2026)

- P/E ratio (P/E ratio): Currently approx. 51x.

- History: This is moderate compared to previous years (where the P/E ratio was often 60x to 80x) moderate.

- Verdict: The balance sheet is "bulletproof". The risk at Lasertec is not bankruptcy or over-indebtedness, but merely the market's high expectations for future growth.

💀REAPER-BONUS :

🛡️ LASERTEC CORP (6920.T) - SUMMARY

Status: World monopolist for EUV mask inspection (sub-3nm chip production).

1. DNA & QUALITY (The foundation)

- Moat: 🟢 ELITE. Lasertec has a 100% monopoly on inspection systems for EUV masks. Without them, the assembly lines at TSMC, Intel and Samsung for high-end chips (AI chips, iPhone CPUs) stand still.

- Margins: Operating margins of almost 50% and an ROIC of over 40%. This is absolutely world class and shows the enormous pricing power.

- Balance sheet:
Net cash. The company has no debt and is sitting on massive cash reserves. Interest rate risks? Zero.

2. the valuation fallacy (the price)

- Current price:
~242 € (~45,000 JPY).

- P/E ratio (fwd): ~51x. The market is pricing in perfection. Historically, the P/E ratio is at the upper limit.

- Growth expectation: The share price implies sustained FCF growth of over 22% p.a. for the next 10 years. That is ambitious, even for a monopolist.

3 CATALYST-WATCH (The next spark)

- Date:
30.04.2026 (Q3 Earnings).

- Whisper: Expectations are extremely high (AI hype). An "in-line" (expectations fulfilled) could already lead to profit-taking here, as the share price has run massively in the run-up.

⚖️ REAPER RATE

RATING: WATCH

Lasertec $6920 (+4,27 %) is qualitatively a 10/10but in terms of rating a 3/10.

- Dust-off limit: 205 €. This is the fundamental bottom (fair value), where the risk/reward profile becomes attractive again.

Jack's conclusion: "A monopoly protects you from competition, but not from an inflated valuation. Buying at €242 is betting that there won't be a single delay in global chip production. I'll stay on the sidelines and wait for the setback."

In this sense, have a nice weekend

@Tenbagger2024
@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

yours Aktienhauptmeister✌️

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Since it will be very difficult for us small investors to get shares at the IPO price, we can look for other possibilities. One possibility would be $SMT (+2,95 %) . An investment company that has invested 15% of its equity capital in SpaceX, but also has other exciting investments.

So also in $2330 Bytedance, and many others.

https://www.scottishmortgage.com/en/germany/professional-investors/holdings/space-exploration-technologies

Let's see what this earnings season has to offer 😁🧐

what do you think? 📉📈

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(Reading time approx. 15min)

In the last few days there have been some discussions here about Sony $6758 (-1,15 %) . I have often read things like "Sony is finished", "Sony is not innovative" or "Sony is just the PlayStation". It is therefore high time that someone did a comprehensive analysis for Sony.

Sony is a global entertainment and tech company headquartered in Japan. They became big at the end of the last century with consumer electronics (e.g. televisions). Today, however, they have little to do with the Sony of yesteryear. Japan is no longer the country of televisions, refrigerators and laptops. Most of these industries are now located in low-wage countries such as China, India or Vietnam. And that's perfectly fine. For Sony, however, this meant that they had to completely reposition themselves in order to remain relevant. They have already succeeded in this transformation, but I think it is only just beginning. The realignment of the company has the potential to take them to a whole new level. In the next 10 years, this could be a company that breaks the €1 trillion mark. Let's take a look at what this thesis is based on.

Business areas and their future prospects:

1) Music

Sony Music is increasingly becoming a global IP management platform. Sony is number 2 in Recorded Music (actual recording) with about 22% market share and number 1 in Music Publishing (copyrights to lyrics and melody) with 25-30% market share. Recently, they have also been buying up more and more music catalogs of so-called evergreens (timeless). Most recently Queen, Michael Jackson or Pink Floyd. These generate permanent license income and are not really vulnerable to AI. The profit margin is already over 20% and the profit contribution is over €2.5 billion. Sony is particularly strong in the fast-growing Asian markets (China, India). They are also benefiting from the massive global growth of Korean and Japanese pop culture, where they are also number 1 (there are high synergies with the Pictures division). Sony Music is growing faster than the competition from Universal $UMG (+2 %) and Warner Music $WMG (-0,48 %)

According to Goldman Sachs $GS (-0,59 %) the global music market is set to grow to 200 billion dollars by 2035. Sony is taking rigorous action against AI songs and has already obtained the deletion of 135,000 songs. Sony wants to drive up the valuation of its IP for potential future license deals with AI providers. By focusing on the accumulation of copyrights (especially timeless artists) and, in the future, on fan experiences, they are also much more resistant to the wave of AI content.

I think a turnover of around 30 billion dollars is realistic for 2035. With a further increase in margins through the use of AI and monetization of super-fans, the profit contribution could reach $8 billion.

2) Pictures & Anime

In my opinion, this is one of the most important areas. Sony Pictures is one of the largest movie studios in the world. They have a market share of about 12% of the global box office. The margin is about 10% and contributes about $1 billion to profits. In contrast to competitors such as Warner or Paramount, Sony does not have its own streaming service. In this way, they keep their margins stable and always work with whoever wants to pay the most for their IP. They are therefore not heavily indebted and under pressure to expand like many of their competitors. Sony has also started to bring PlayStation IP to the big screen. For example, the series "The Last of Us" on HBO was very successful, which also greatly increased game sales (win-win). They now want to turn two PlayStation IPs into a movie or series every year. But that was more the uninteresting part.

The anime business is much more interesting. The 40+ generation may laugh, but the global anime market is estimated to be worth around 220 billion dollars in 2035. Sony is the most important player in the market and is pursuing a strategy of vertical integration. They control the entire chain. They control the production with studios like Aniplex, CloverWorks or A-1 Pictures (approx. 40% market share). Hits like Demon Slayer grossed over $700 million at the box office last year with just a sequel. They have their own streaming service for anime called Crunchyroll, which has a monopolistic position. Crunchyroll currently has around 20 million paying subscribers. Crunchyroll is very profitable and growing strongly. Sony is expecting particularly strong growth in India and South East Asia over the next few years. However, anime in itself is only part of the business, as a lot of money is earned from merchandise and events in particular. Music is also a factor. Anime music is not a niche; it is usually by very well-known artists and the opening songs immediately end up in the top 10 of the Japanese charts (only for successful series/films, of course). For example, the song "Idol" by YOASOBI (produced by Sony Music) made it to number 1 in the global charts. So what I want to make clear is that anime is not some weird niche content, but global mainstream among people under 40. The industry continues to grow strongly and is increasingly replacing American productions.

Sony is currently preparing an important takeover. They want to take over Kadokawa. They control a large part of the anime IP and also have a gaming studio. Sony has already bought 10% of the shares and has already made a takeover bid. An activist investor is currently complicating the process and will probably drive up the price. But even if you end up paying more, this takeover is the final piece of the puzzle, as you would then control IP, production, streaming, music and cinema, you would control everything. Most of Sony's studios are already using AI to increase efficiency without losing artistic value. So AI is more of an asset here.

I think Sony Pictures will continue to grow steadily. With their focus on high-end content and PlayStation IP, they will be able to increase margins. They will remain "arms dealers" for the other streaming services. I estimate that revenue will roughly double by 2035 from around $11 billion today to around $20 billion. The profit contribution from the Pictures division will rise to around $3bn (15% margin).

The anime segment will be exciting. I expect Sony to take over Kadokawa by 2035 and the number of Crunchyroll subscribers to rise to at least 65 million. If the India/SEA initiative is successful, this number could increase significantly due to the young population and high population figures. I estimate revenues of $20 billion, up from around $5 billion today, and profits of over $6 billion. This would result in sales of around $40 billion and a profit contribution of $9 billion+ for Pictures & Anime in 2035.

3) Gaming

This is probably the area that people most often associate with Sony today, gaming. Here everything revolves around the PlayStation. Sony currently holds a market share of around 72% for high-end consoles. Microsoft and its Xbox seem to have lost the battle for good. They have opened up the Xbox and suddenly brought their games to every conceivable end device, which has irritated and annoyed fans. What's more, they are now also bringing the wildly unpopular Copilot to the Xbox, which is also causing resentment. The last loyal Xbox fans have now switched to Playstation. Nintendo coexists peacefully with Sony, as Nintendo appeals to a different target group and generally takes a different approach. The hardware sales of the PlayStation itself only account for around a fifth of the gaming division's turnover. Purchases within the games, the software itself and subscriptions are much more important.

Sony is increasingly acting as a platform operator and wants to focus its business more on software and services. The PlayStation currently has 130 million active users and this figure is expected to rise in the coming years. Sony is currently trying to bring the profit margin up to 20% (currently 9%). To do this, they are relying heavily on first party titles (their own games), as these have a higher margin, as well as subscriptions/advertising (already over 40 million subscribers today). Today, Sony has a similar position in the PlayStation Store as Apple has in the AppStore. They take 30% on everything, every game and every third-party transaction. They have a high margin. However, court cases are currently underway (similar to Apple's) and I think it is likely that the 30% will fall. Sony is relying heavily on AI in game development and can already demonstrate clear successes. The quality of games is increasing and development time is getting faster. However, users are not aware of the AI, everything runs in the background, which prevents resentment among players (similar to Microsoft).

Sales and profits from hardware will only increase marginally by 2035. The PlayStation 6/7 will also sell well, but margins will remain at <5%. So revenue is likely to be $12bn and profit only around $500m. However, this is unimportant because the hardware is only the enabler for the software and services. Sony will strongly increase sales with first party titles, supported by AI, which will lead to sales (including transactions/add-ons) of approx. 16.5 bn $ from today's 4 bn $. Profit will be around $6.5bn as it tends to be high for software and will increase due to transactions and AI. Fees on third-party revenues will increase only slightly, from $12.5bn today to $16.5bn. This reflects a strong increase in transaction volumes and a simultaneous decrease in fees (more likely towards 20% from today's 30%). The profit from this will rise from $1.5bn today (margin is actually very high, but a lot is eaten up by hardware subsidies) to $8bn (higher efficiency due to higher volume and lower hardware subsidies). Nevertheless, I calculate a risk discount (regulatory) of 50%, which puts us at $4bn. Finally, we have the development of services (subscriptions and advertising). I think sales will rise from $5bn today to $11.5bn and profits from $1bn to $5bn. The margin will increase significantly due to the economies of scale and the cloud infrastructure will already be depreciated. Incidentally, Sony is already cross-selling with Crunchyroll. PlayStation Plus subscribers can purchase a subscription in combination with Crunchyroll, which makes it even more attractive.

All in all, the forecast for 2035 puts sales at over $45 billion and profits at around $16 billion. This would correspond to a margin of around 35%. It definitely assumes that the focus on software and services will be successful. The targeted 20% (if higher subsidies or similar are required) would take us to $10-12bn.

4) Image Sensors

The image sensor business is the last segment with no connection to entertainment. High tech instead of IP is what counts here. The global market for image sensors is expected to grow to 60-70 billion dollars by 2035. Sony is the undisputed market leader here with a market share of approx. 54% (Samsung $005930 comes next with <20%). They themselves plan to expand this to 60%. Growth in recent years has been characterized by smartphones, with the iPhone leading the way. In the coming years, however, the focus will increasingly be on physical AI and autonomous driving. Both are huge growth markets that are completely dependent on image sensors (and lots of them).

The number of image sensors required for smartphones (better image quality), cars (huge increase) and physical AI (humanoid robots and co) is also increasing. Sony is clearly ahead of the competition in terms of technology. In robotics, this is particularly evident in spatial perception and in safety in cars. Sony is also trying to establish a new business model, Sensing as a Service. They are integrating edge AI into their sensors, which can then process what they perceive themselves and only provide the interpretation, so to speak, which can then be sold as a service (AITRIOS project). Sony's sensors are then used to monitor traffic, monitor store inventories or increase security. The results are sold as a service.

Another positive aspect is how Sony is expanding its production capacities and entering into strategic partnerships for this purpose. They are involved in JASM (TSMC $2330 in Japan) and Rapidus (Japanese foundry project). In this way, they are strategically securing capacity (locally), which makes them more resistant to supply chain problems.

I expect sales to increase from around $14 billion today to around $29 billion in 2035. This is solid growth based on structural trends. The margin will increase due to the focus on high-end and the introduction of AITRIOS. The profit contribution will probably rise from around USD 2 billion today to around USD 8 billion (margin 15% -> 27%).

5) Further hardware

This is probably the most boring area, but it is not superfluous either. It represents the remnants of the old Sony as well as smaller business lines. Let's start with the positive aspects. There are cameras, for example, a classic Sony product for decades, but these are no longer aimed at the normal consumer, but only at professionals and content creators. There, Sony's cameras are the gold standard and they hold over 40% of the market with stable margins above 10%. They are also the market leader in sports technology (Hawk-Eye), a small but high-margin area. This involves, for example, determining whether the ball was already out of bounds or not. In tennis, they are almost the monopolist. Sony products are also used in medical technology, but it is only a very small area. The same applies to the production/editing of film material (synergies with Pictures). However, these are all healthy and technologically sophisticated business areas.

Now we come to the dying business. This includes consumer electronics such as TVs (Bravia), headphones and smartphones (Xperia). Sony continues to shrink this segment and has already withdrawn from the affordable mass market. They continue to sell in the premium segment, but this will also come to an end. This year, the majority of the TV division in North America and Europe was handed over to TCL $1070 (-1 %) a Chinese low-cost electronics group. This is likely to continue. However, a minimum will remain, as these consumer products could be used as a test laboratory for sensors or as a supplier for the PlayStation.

I estimate that this area will grow well in some areas and shrink/stagnate in others by 2035. The camera part will probably double in sales from around $5bn today to $11.5bn in 2035. Profitability will increase as more and more creators will use the Sony Creator Cloud, leading to more high-margin software sales. Profit contribution will increase from $600 million to $2 billion. Video production, sports tech and medical technology will take advantage of the structural growth trend and increase their sales from around $2bn to $10bn. In terms of profit, I think $2bn is likely, up from $400m today (still 20% margin). Legacy goods, on the other hand, if they are not sold by then, will stagnate in sales at around $4.5bn and will not generate any profit worth mentioning. Overall, we would therefore be looking at sales of USD 26 billion and a profit contribution of USD 4 billion in 2035.

6) Blockchain (Soneium)

This is one of the most interesting developments that most people have never heard of. Sony has developed a blockchain (based on Ethereum Layer 2) that has already become one of the largest in the world (already over 600m transactions today). Soneium specializes in IP and digital property. Sony receives a small fee for each transaction. From now on, PlayStation players who link their PlayStation account to Soneium (perhaps automatically) can actually own skins or items they have purchased and then trade them on digital marketplaces, for example. Soneium offers numerous opportunities to introduce tokens, for example to buy access to events or to unlock an anime series earlier. Soneium is also a game changer for copyrights, because Soneium recognizes in milliseconds whether corresponding licenses are available and knows the stored contracts for royalties and co. Soneium then automatically pays the corresponding fees to the right recipients. The attractiveness for all those who produce or manage IP is therefore enormous. Sony can of course force the industry onto its platform with its own huge catalog of IP (music rights, film rights, PlayStation purchases.....). The Japanese version of GEMA already relies on Soneium (JASRAC/KENDRIX) and there are already over 5 million active wallets. Sony is working with Circle, who have enabled payment with USD stablecoins. They have also partnered with LINE (the East Asian WhatsApp), which gives Sony access to the 200m users in Japan, Taiwan and Thailand. In January, Sony invested a further $13m in the startup Startale Labs from Singapore, which acts as an important technology partner for Soneium.

At the moment, it looks like Soneium is developing into a global platform for trading (and protecting) intellectual property. The massive growth since its launch in 2025, the power of Sony's IP catalog and the high attractiveness for creators/users make this look likely. On every transaction via Soneium, Sony will receive a 1% fee (similar to Visa $V (-0,08 %) or Mastercard $MA (+0,07 %) ). Soneium will be used for everything and link all of Sony's businesses together. Soneium is like a catalyst for all other business areas. Protection of music rights, monetization of anime fans or completely new markets in gaming (retail). The number of transactions will explode due to background automation (adaptation without users noticing). I estimate that it will increase to over 75 billion transactions per year from 600 million today (first year). Most transactions will take place in the gaming sector (already over 30 billion today), but the music industry will also become increasingly important (Soneium is like an AI shield). In general, the IP licensing market is the biggest lever in the long term. Based on the 1% fees, I expect revenues of $3.5 billion and a profit contribution of $2 billion in 2035. This may not sound like much in absolute terms, but Soneium also has the potential to increase the profits of the other segments, especially through efficiency gains (e.g. no more transaction fees or less piracy/plagiarism). This could add another $3 billion to profits, but I'll leave that aside for now.

7) Other

There are still a few remaining holdings such as Sony Financial (spun off last year), M3 (34%, of limited relevance for medical technology), JASM/Rapidus (for semiconductor security) and a JV with Olympus for medical technology. But none of this is that important. There is also some involvement in the mobility sector. Fortunately, the e-car project of Sony and Honda was terminated a few days ago, which in my opinion was the right decision, because cars are just difficult and contradict the asset-light model. But, the entertainment system that Sony has already developed for the project, I think they will continue and then license it to other car makers, but there was no word on that yet. But if that happens, it could generate billions of dollars more in sales with very high margins.

Current key figures:

Market capitalization: approx. € 104 billion

P/E ratio: approx. 17

Turnover 2026e: approx. € 67 bn

Profit 2026e: approx. €6.2 bn

Profit margin: >9%

(The spin-off of Sony Financial last year reduced sales by almost €20bn, but profit by less than €1bn. This was an important streamlining).

Aggregated forecast for 2035 (path to the trillion):

Let's now aggregate the forecasts for all divisions into an overall forecast for 2035. This gives an approximate total revenue of $170bn and a total profit (EBIT) of around $47bn. Net profit would then probably be around $37 billion (-20%+ taxes). That would be around €34 billion. The focus on IP, software, services, high tech etc. allows a revaluation. In my opinion, the P/E ratio will be over 30 instead of around 20 as it is today. The valuation could therefore exceed the €1 trillion mark in 2035 (€1.02 trillion), whereby the gaming division was calculated with a risk discount (new regulation) and the potential efficiency gains from Soneium were not taken into account.

Market capitalization: €1.02 trillion +

P/E ratio: 30+ (1.5-2x vs. 2026)

Sales 2035e: € 150 bn + (2.5x vs. 2026)

Profit 2035e: € 34 bn + (5x vs. 2026)

Profit margin: >20% (2x vs. 2026)

Conclusion:

All in all, it can be said that Sony is undergoing a profound transformation that has been bearing its first fruits for a few years now. The Group is completely realigning itself and is excellently positioned in numerous future-oriented sectors. The PlayStation remains unchallenged as a platform and is becoming increasingly digital. Sony is the only company with a dominant position in the anime market. There is still strong growth ahead here and Sony is making money in all areas, above all with Crunchyroll, the Japanese Netflix of the 2030s. Sony also dominates the market for image sensors, which will continue to experience strong growth due to numerous structural trends (AV, physical AI, robotics....). Supply chains are being cleverly secured (JASM, Rapidus). No one owns more musical IP than Sony, which they continue to monetize. At the same time, they are establishing Soneium as the backbone of intellectual property in the digital age. The strategy is good, the prospects are good. In my opinion, everything currently speaks FOR Sony and with virtually no real risk. A value stock with tenbagger potential? Such a nice thing, too :)

I would be very happy if you could also share your opinion, because the post took a really long time 😅 I would also be interested in what the "Sony is finished" or "Sony is not innovative" people think 🥴

@Tenbagger2024
@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

$2330
$TSM (+4,89 %) was one of my first values "back then". I don't even remember when and why I rejected it.

Now it's going back into my portfolio and providing further diversification. Three more tranches will follow.

The current conflict between the USA and Iran has far-reaching geopolitical consequences - particularly for the Indo-Pacific and the security situation around Taiwan.

Many analysts are currently asking themselves the crucial question:

👉 Does the Iran war weaken the USA's ability to defend Taiwan in an emergency?

The answer lies somewhere between short-term weakening and long-term reorganization.

_________________________

⚠️ 1. resource commitment: The greatest short-term risk

Probably the most important point:

👉 Military resources are limited

• The USA has already thousands of precision weapons in the Iran conflict
• 
  Critical systems (e.g. interceptor missiles, cruise missiles) could become scarce within a few weeks
• 
  Some of these systems are also central to a Taiwan defense

In addition:

• Transfer of troops (e.g. aircraft carriers) from the Pacific to the Middle East
• Possible redistribution of ammunition and logistics

➡️ Conclusion:

In the short term, the military response capability in the Indo-Pacific will decrease.

_________________________

🌏 2. strategic distraction: opportunity for China?

Several experts see a classic geopolitical pattern:

👉 Two-front problem of the USA

• Current focus is on the Middle East
• Political & military attention is tied up
• China could use this as a "window of opportunity" interpret

Some analysts even warn:

• The combination of distraction + depleted resources could increase the risk of China stepping up pressure on Taiwan

➡️ At the same time, it remains important:

A direct attack is currently still considered not likelybut the gray area (blockade, pressure, exercises) could increase.

_________________________

🏦 3. industrial capacities: The structural problem

A key point that is often underestimated:

👉 The USA has limited production capacities for modern weapons

• Replenishment for spent missiles can take years
• 
  Defense industry is not prepared for simultaneous major conflicts designed

➡️ Means:

A long war with Iran could permanently weaken deterrence in Asia in the long term.

_________________________

🚢 4. military presence: shifting forces

• US navy could withdraw capacities from Asia
• 
  Less deterrence against China
• slower response time in an emergency

➡️ Particularly critical as Taiwan relies heavily on US presence as a deterrent as a deterrent.

_________________________

🛡️ 5 Why Taiwan is nevertheless not "defenseless"

Despite the risks, there are also stabilizing factors:

1️⃣ Ongoing arms supplies

• New US weapons packages for Taiwan (e.g. missiles, air defense) remain planned

2️⃣ Taiwan's own preparations

• Expansion of energy and raw material reserves
• Adjustment of the defense strategy

3️⃣ US long-term strategy

• Focus remains clearly on China as main adversary in the 21st century
• Iran is seen more as a secondary theater of war considered

_________________________

⚖️ 6. the decisive point: time factor

👉 Everything depends on the duration of the Iran war:

Short-term conflict:

• Limited impact
• USA can quickly change course again

Protracted war:

• massive commitment of resources
• Weaker deterrent against China
• Higher risk for Taiwan

➡️ Taiwan itself therefore hopes for a quick end to the conflict

_________________________

🌐 7 Overall geopolitical impact

The Iran war is changing the global balance of power:

• strengthens perception of an unstable international system
• increases tensions between the USA and China
• shows how quickly several crises can escalate simultaneously

💡 Particularly important:

The conflict serves as a "reality check" for a possible Taiwan crisis.

_________________________

🧠 Conclusion

The Iran war is a classic example of geopolitical overextension:

👉 Short term:

• Weakening of US capability for Taiwan defense
• Resource consumption & distraction

👉 Medium term:

• Pressure on US defense industry
• Increasing risk of geopolitical miscalculations

👉 Long term:

• USA will be forced to clearly prioritize its strategy
• (Middle East vs. China)

📌 The decisive factor remains:

👉 Not whether, but how long the conflict lasts

Because that is precisely what determines whether Taiwan is only indirectly affected -

or becomes the next geopolitical flashpoint.

What is your assessment?

_________________________

🔗 Sources

• Barron’s: Iran War Puts a Spotlight on Taiwan Risk
• Reuters: Taiwan says next US arms purchase is on track
• Business Insider: US stockpiles could run low in Iran war
• Semafor: US war with Iran strains Pacific resources
• Asia Times: Iran war may increase Taiwan conflict risk
• Brookings: US must refocus on Taiwan deterrence

$2330
$2354
$2454

TSMC produces semiconductors for companies such as AMD, Nvidia and Apple. However, the new plant in Arizona is already working at full capacity until 2030.

TSMC is one of the largest and most important semiconductor manufacturers in the world. TSMC's Plant 4 is located in the US state of Arizona and has a surprising problem: not only is it currently fully booked, it is already fully reserved with orders until 2030.

Semiconductors play a major role in the economy, as the components are found in every electronic device. From your fridge to your cell phone to the graphics card in your gaming PC.

The Taiwan Economy Daily reports that important customers are already reserving capacities and products that have not even been produced yet.

Due to geopolitical reasons, the location in the USA is in demand like never before

Why is there so much interest? There are mainly geopolitical reasons. TSMC continues to produce most of its semiconductors in Taiwan, but China keeps saying that it wants to incorporate the island. For many companies that need semiconductors for their products, the plants in Taiwan therefore represent a certain risk.

The alternative for many manufacturers is therefore the plant in Arizona, a safe US state. However, the capacities are already fully utilized and, on top of that, are said to be limited to just a few exclusive customers: NVIDIA, AMD and Apple

TSMC has therefore been investing a lot of money in production lines in the USA for years. The total investment is expected to rise to half a trillion dollars, and this also includes other suppliers such as Foxconn and Quanta, who are also building their production facilities in the USA.

Anyone looking to buy a gaming PC or upgrade their old machine will have to dig deep into their pockets. Memory in particular, which used to be one of the cheapest components, is absurdly expensive at the moment. And it will probably stay that way for a while, according to experts: RAM is incredibly expensive at the moment, and market researchers are certain that it will stay that way for a while yet.

$2330
$TSM (+4,89 %)

https://mein-mmo.de/tsmc-halbleiter-ausgebucht-arizona/