$COST (-0,87 %)
$HD (-0,24 %)
$ADP (-0,74 %)
$MMC (-0,6 %)
$SHW (-0,05 %)
$CTAS (-0,62 %)
$RACE (+0,59 %)
$ZTS (-0,49 %)
$PAYX (-0,36 %)
$TSCO (-0,46 %)
$TPL (-1,27 %)
$WSO (+0,29 %)
$DPZ (-0,36 %)

Is it Black Friday again?

Quality companies pop up in my weekly screenings from time to time. Admittedly, they are designed for this. Recently, however, the number has been increasing.

Filters:

• Marketcap > 2 billion $
• ROIC > 10%
• 52W Low: 0-10% above
• Dividend Growth: 5Y over 10%

It seems that outstanding companies with proven business models, strong and in some cases very predictable cash flows, high returns on capital and little or no debt are going out of fashion.

Is the AI narrative driving this development? Are the companies simply too boring? Do they not promise sufficient returns compared to the hype stocks? Is it perhaps the phenomenon of the quality anomaly or are the companies really all doomed?

Who knows for sure.

What I do know is that I know nothing!

I humbly look at the market and gratefully accept what it offers me, and right now I see quality companies on sale.

How do you see what the market is offering? Which company do we buy first? Do we buy at all or do we continue to exercise patience?

Let me know and write it in the comments as added value for everyone!

Link to the screening

https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=151&f=cap_midover,fa_div_pos,fa_divgrowth_5yo10,fa_roi_o10,ta_highlow52w_a0to10h&ft=4&o=-marketcap

Goldman Sachs has looked into the issue and is convinced that it will be companies in particular that have extremely high personnel costs and, at the same time, great potential for automation.

The Goldman strategists use very specific figures. They take wage costs as a percentage of turnover and combine them with the proportion of jobs that can be automated using AI. The result is the so-called Phase 4 list of the AI revolution. AI hyperscalers, semiconductor values and data centers correspond to phase 1, phase 2 and phase 3 respectively.

Which sectors are phase 4 candidates? The answer is: software & services, professional services such as management consultancy, tax consultancy, insurance and IT services, because AI loves repetitive knowledge work.

The specific winners in the area of Banking & Finance include Bank of America $BAC (+0,11 %)KeyCorp $KEY (+1,66 %), PNC $PNC (+0,49 %), US Bancorp $TBBK and Truist $TFC (-0,25 %). Half of banking work is document processing - that's AI fodder.

For insurers Goldman Sachs calls Aon $AON (-0,14 %)Marsh & McLennan $MMC (-0,6 %), Willis Towers Watson $WTW (-0,83 %). When AI checks insurance claims, it is a cost revolution.

In the area of IT service providers & consultants the list includes Accenture $ACN (-1,28 %), Cognizant $CTSH (+0,14 %)EPAM $EPAM (-1,04 %)IBM $IBM (-0,56 %), Twilio $TWLO (-0,37 %), DXC $DXC (-0,3 %) and SAIC $SAIC (+0,2 %). These companies have consultants - and a large part of their activities can be automated with AI.

Among the software-specialists, Guidewire $GWRE (-0,26 %), Manhattan Associates $MANH (-0,16 %), Pegasystems $PEGA (-0,53 %) and Tyler Technologies $TYL (-1,14 %) are mentioned. These are companies that build software for the management of companies - and AI will allow them to deliver their products faster and more cheaply.

In the area of Healthcare Services & Life Science Tools Goldman names Labcorp $LH (-1,24 %)IQVIA $IQV (+0,53 %) and Certara $CERT (-0,6 %)because AI is already involved in medical documentation, study evaluation and diagnostics.

What makes Phase 4 shares so exciting? Every working hour saved has a direct impact on the margin. High productivity stands for high profit leverage. The advantage: unlike hyperscalers or chip companies, they don't need huge investments, but can simply use AI. This means less risk, more leverage and a lower valuation.

Conclusion:

Currently everything revolves around Nvidia $NVDA (+0,89 %) , AMD $AMD (+1,25 %), TSMC $2330 - i.e. phase 2 stocks. But the next wave is not coming for companies that use AI.

Source text (excerpt) & graphic: Welt, 03.12.25

A portfolio that delivers long-term returns, grows steadily, and remains well-balanced. The focus is on global diversification, strong dividend-paying stocks, stable industry leaders, and a strategic allocation of forward-looking stocks, including those in the crypto sector.

✅ = already included

👀 = on the watchlist, price will soon be attractive

❌ = not yet attractively priced at this time

ETF Selection

• FTSE All World ✅ = Global coverage, broadly diversified. $VWRL (+0,2 %)
• 
  MSCI World Tech ✅ = Focus on innovative technology stocks.
• Defense USD 👀 = Stability through defense and security.
• FTSE High Dividend 👀 = Dividend-oriented complement.

Individual Stock Focus

Energy & Commodities:

Shell ✅, Chevron ❌, Exxon ❌, Rio Tinto ❌ $SHEL (-0,65 %)
$CVX (-1,44 %)
$XOM (-1,7 %)
$RIO (-0,49 %)

Insurance & Reinsurance:

Munich Re ✅, Hannover Re 👀, Swiss Re 👀, Allianz ❌, Swiss Life AG ❌ $ALV (+0,25 %)
$SREN (+0,23 %)
$SLHN (-0,12 %)
$HNR1 (+0,03 %)
$MUV2 (+0,35 %)

Finance & Payments:

Brown & Brown ✅, Marsh & McLennan 👀, Visa ❌, Mastercard ❌, PayPal ✅ $PYPL (-0,08 %)
$BRO (-0,61 %)
$MMC (-0,6 %)
$V (-0,26 %)
$MA (-0,25 %)

Technology & Data:

Alphabet ❌, NVIDIA ❌, Palantir ❌,

Amazon ❌, Apple ❌, Microsoft ❌, Baidu ❌

Alibaba ❌ $BABA (+3,08 %)
$9888 (-0,66 %)
$AAPL (-1,04 %)
$GOOGL (+0,33 %)
$PLTR (+0,63 %)
$NVDA (+0,89 %)

Healthcare & Consumer Goods:

Novo Nordisk ❌, Zoetis 👀, Coca-Cola ❌, Walmart ❌, United Health 👀 $UNH (-0,44 %)
$NOVO B (-0,01 %)
$ZTS (-0,49 %)
$KO (-0,79 %)
$WMT (-1,14 %)

Automotive & Mobility:

BMW ❌, Mercedes ❌, Tesla ❌ $TSLA (+0,5 %)
$BMW (+0,26 %)
$MBG (-1,02 %)

Cryptocurrencies

• XRP ✅ $XRP (-0,24 %)
• 
  RENDER ✅ $RENDER (-1,51 %)
• 
  Bitcoin (BTC) ❌ $BTC (-0,49 %)
• 
  Solana (SOL) ✅ $SOL (-0,34 %)
• 
  Ethereum (ETH) ❌ $ETH (+0,68 %)

As the weekend approaches

The strategy remains the same: patience, discipline, and an eye for opportunities.

📈🌾

Keep going, keep going. Thank you Donald @trump for giving us such opportunities. 😎

Shout out to @Simpson

Valuation still quite high despite the price drop, but sometimes you don't do anything.

Beat the S&P500 Challenge

I have been thinking about which stocks I could use to beat the S&P500 index.

After a lot of research, I have now decided on 20 American shares, which I will save 100 euros/month each in savings plans from 01.04.2024. As I didn't want any overlaps/duplications with my ETFs (World and Consumer Staples), I chose companies from the second tier. Perhaps one or two of the stocks will also be of interest to you 😉

The portfolio will contain the following shares:

$AME (+0,05 %)

$APH (+1,22 %)

$ANET

$AJG (-0,38 %)

$CMG (-0,7 %)

$FIX (+1,08 %)

$EME (+2,84 %)

$IT (-1,43 %)

$HUBB (+0,57 %)

$INTU (-0,97 %)

$KAI (+0,42 %)

$KLAC (+1,27 %)

$MMC (-0,6 %)

$MEDP (-0,07 %)

$MOH (+1,65 %)

$RSG (-0,85 %)

$SNPS (+0,18 %)

$URI (-0,05 %)

$VRTX (-0,5 %)

$GWW (-0,53 %)

I know that it will be difficult to beat the S&P500, but I still want to try...