Foreword:

An investment reserve can be a great thing, it smoothes out volatility and in extreme phases you have the opportunity to implement something meaningful in your portfolio, which has a very calming effect psychologically.

Unfortunately, the expected additional return from buy the dip often fails to materialize, as the opportunity costs eat everything up again.

Very nicely described here by Gerd Kommer:

https://gerd-kommer.de/buy-the-dip/

But what if we turn a few screws, don't hold our investment reserves in cash and buy leveraged?

I have thought too much about this topic and built a model for a war chest, which I am also implementing myself.

Building up the reserve:

Investment Reserve

-------------------------------------------

EURO

10.0% Money Market / 0-1y Bonds EUR $CSH2 (+0,01 %)

10.0% Inflation linked Gov. Bonds $IBCI (+0,01 %)

10.0% German Gov. Bonds 7+Y $X03G (+0,01 %)

-------------------------------------30%

US Dollar

10.0% Money Market / 0-1y Bonds USD $XFFE (+0,01 %)

10.0% Inflation linked Gov. Bonds $XTIP (+0,01 %)

10.0% US Gov. Bonds 7-10Y $US7 (+0,01 %)

-------------------------------------30%

Swiss Franc

20.0% Swiss Gov.Bonds 7-10Y $CH0440081393 (+0,31 %)

-------------------------------------20%

Swiss Gold

20.0% Gold $EWG2 (-1,14 %)

-------------------------------------20%

==========100%==========

The reserve must be structured in such a way that it is not torn apart in a crisis. In the best-case scenario, parts of the reserve should even rise during crises.

This is why part of it consists of government bonds; in economic crises, interest rates are generally lowered, which is why long-term bonds should rise. Currency crises are also conceivable, which is why we diversify across currencies. (EUR / USD and CHF)

As inflationary phases can certainly occur, I have decided to include inflation-indexed government bonds and gold.

The total of 4% in money market funds exists in order to have a volatility-free position.

This reserve is not a standalone, it should be seen as part of a global portfolio and can make up between 10% and 30% of the total portfolio.

It is not intended to generate returns, but merely to compensate for inflation and to remain stable in value during crises.

The strategy:

As an anchor point we use the all-time high of the $ACWI (USD) from -10% we invest step by step. We try to buy the ACWI with increasing leverage. As there is no 2x ACWI, FTSE All-World, MSCI World or similar, we have to build our own as best we can. I don't want to use certificates because they have a counterparty risk. That's why I only use ETFs and ETCs.

Mode 1 ACWI -10% - Lev. 1.25x - Correction

5.00% MSCI USA 2X Lev. $CL2 (-0,65 %)

11.0% World ex USA $EXUS (+0,91 %)

4.0% Emerging Markets $EIMI (-0,16 %)

-------------------------------------20%

Mode 2 ACWI -20% - 1.82x Lev - Crisis

12.0% MSCI USA 2X Lev. $CL2 (-0,65 %)

6.8% Euro Stoxx 50 2X Lev. $LVE (+1,45 %)

1.7% FTSE 100 2X Lev. $LUK2

4.5% Japan $PRAJ (+0,3 %)

-------------------------------------25%

Mode 3 ACWI -30% - 2.35x Lev - Escalation I

12.0% MSCI USA 2X Lev. $CL2 (-0,65 %)

4.8% Euro Stoxx 50 2X Lev. $LVE (+1,45 %)

1.2% FTSE 100 2X Lev. $LUK2

9.5% Total World 3X Lev.$3VTE

-------------------------------------27,5%

Mode 4 ACWI- 40% - 3x Lev. - Escalation II

27.5% Total World 3X Lev. $3VTE

-------------------------------------27,5%

==========100%==========

Rebalancing

After the crash is before the crash, the investment reserve must be replenished.

After the price has recovered a distance of approx. 60% from the low to the top (ACWI), I would recommend selling all Total World 3X Lev. positions and thus filling the reserve.

The rest of the reserve can then be filled with your savings rates and partial sales of the 2x positions.

Since we do not put the return from this "trade" completely back into the bond, but keep a part of the "Do-It-Yourself-Leveraged-Getto-ACWI", we build up a small leverage over time, at favorable conditions.

Problems and risks:

Especially if it goes down further than 50%, things can get ugly.

In the 2019 financial crisis, for example, we would have made -58%. As a result, the recovery would have taken 1 year longer than if we had bought a normal ACWI. However, in all other corrections (including Corona), we would have come out of the crisis better with this strategy and would have generated an annual outperformance of 1-2% p.a. after tax (varies depending on the period).

In long bull markets, without significant corrections, this strategy underperforms. In sideways markets, we should outperform a 100% equity portfolio due to the interest income.

It is not entirely clear which part of the investment reserve will be sold first and which last. Depending on the nature of the crisis, some shares may rise and others may fall.

If it is a debt crisis, for example, it may not be wise to sell your gold right at the beginning. If it is an economic crisis, long-dated bonds are king, although inflation-linked bonds will probably suffer somewhat.

If you don't want to be caught on the wrong foot here, you can always sell 50% of the best-performing asset and 50% of the worst-performing asset at the same time.

Which wouldn't be a good thing if we had two cycles in quick succession before we had the opportunity to rebalance.

Colorful pictures:

I have recreated the period from 01.01.2018 to 01.01.2025 in ExtraETF.

Unfortunately, you can't currently share the portfolio there, which is why I've used a few screenshots here.

I chose this period because I am familiar with it and it had both negative and positive interest rates. In addition, there were a total of 3 drops of more than 10% and a bond crash.

Note during the negative interest rate phase, the portfolio held no bonds (except the inflation-indexed ones) and instead held negative interest cash.

Here you can see a

100% FTSE-All World $VWCE (-0,12 %) vs

80% FTSE-All World + 20% investment reserve.

Maximum Drawdown VS FTSE-All World

Although we buy leveraged products, the maximum drawdown is lower, at least as long as it does not go lower than approx. 35%.

The meme for Sunday (even if it's not Sunday):

I have created an 80% FTSE All-World + 20% Reserve portfolio starting 01.01.2025 and will continue to maintain this, so everyone can see the real performance of this module. And of course I will update you when we are down 10%.

What do you think of the pyramized investment reserve and the Do-It-Yourself-Leveraged-Getto-ACWI?

$EWG2 (-1,14 %)

Sodala, I've narrowed down my portfolio a bit and tidied up the savings plans.

Biggest shifts in the last few weeks:

MSCI World -> FTSE All World

AI & Big Data -> Nasdaq100

Random Ass Gold ETC -> Euwax Gold 2

Altcoins/Shitcoins -> Bitcoin

Larger multiplier for TR Saveback

I'm out of the "Poah, the theme ETF sounds cool, savings plan 50€ IMMEDIATELY" phase and I have to say, such a narrower portfolio somehow looks nicer too lol. I only kept a classic sector ETF savings plan, I just like it. The savings rate isn't really high either, you can just see what happens.

Here are the updated savings plans, feel free to add your comments. I like mustard

Monthly savings plans:

1.Nasdaq 100 $XNAS (-0,31 %)
(Acc): 305 €

2.FTSE All World $VWCE (-0,12 %)
(Acc): 100 €

3.Future of Defense ETF $ASWC (-1,79 %)
(Acc): 75 €

4.Gold: 50 € $EWG2 (-1,14 %)

5.Crypto:

-$BTC (+2,85 %) : 100 €

Reasons for Nasdaq100 as the largest savings plan:

1: I'm 20 and still have plenty of time to take a calculated risk and generate an excess return over the All World in the long term.

2: Falls harder (especially at the moment) than the FTSE,

Savings plans currently mean cheap, relaxed buying. Conversely, of course, the reverse is also true, but my long-term confidence in the (US) tech sector is so high that I don't see any problems in the distant future.

Hello everyone,

I am 25 years old and am saving for my retirement - so my investment horizon is still very long. Because of my age, I'm prepared to take a higher risk.

My portfolio currently consists of:

$VWCE (-0,12 %)

$BTC (+2,85 %)

$EWG2 (-1,14 %)

I am now considering whether it would make sense to $DX2D (+0,81 %) be included. I am particularly interested:

What opportunities and risks do you see with $DX2D (+0,81 %)

Assuming a risk-averse strategy, how would you structure the percentage allocation of my portfolio?

Other suggestions or food for thought are also welcome.

I am currently saving all €50 per month. I'm not sure about the allocation and would be grateful for any food for thought. I am definitely willing to take risks; I have experience with volatility as I have been involved with Bitcoin for some time. Unfortunately, I always sold everything back then because I didn't have a plan or strategy. I am aware of the swap risk and the dependency. I'm currently watching a lot of videos from Finanztipp and Finanzfluss.

I am grateful for any comments, food for thought and your opinion.

Thank you very much in advance and have a nice evening 🫶

I am considering whether it makes sense to hold several physically deposited gold ETCs under certain conditions. I would like to reduce the issuer risk through diversification.

I am very practical and lazy by nature, so I prefer ETCs and don't want to hold gold bars or coins. This also makes selling and rebalancing much easier. If there really is a global collapse, then gold coins will be the least of our problems.

In my opinion, a balanced portfolio should also include gold. Rather as a stabilizer and protection against inflation.

I currently hold 5% gold in my portfolio. I would like to increase this proportion to at least 10% in the future. I invest in $EWG2 (-1,14 %) . Because 10% in just one gold ETC would be too much for me in the future, I am considering transferring my savings plan to $SGBS (-0,55 %) transfer my savings plan to . It is also important to me that the gold is held in Europe (Germany or Switzerland for the ETCs mentioned above). If there is a total loss, then at least the money should stay in Europe :)

Do you think this step makes sense? Do you only rely on one gold ETC or do you also diversify? I look forward to your answers.

Buying gold as a bitcoiner feels like buying a DVD at the Mediamarkt today for the next movie night

I did it anyway 🤷‍♂️

Good or bad decision, what do you think?

I have now decided to invest part of my nest egg in gold (it was actually 80 units = 50+30)

I hope that the momentum in gold will continue and that I will get a higher return than the current 2.75% overnight interest rate. (I am of course aware that this is more risky)

$IGLN (-0,52 %)
$EWG2 (-1,14 %)

Savings plan ahoy - way to €5,000 gold position 🤡

We currently have just under EUR 16,500, which was originally earmarked for an unscheduled repayment of the property loan 🏠. Until recently, the money was in a Trade Republic account with 3.00% interest, which is now being reduced to 2.75%. Combined with the APR on the loan and inflation, however, this amounted to a zero-sum game. Not particularly smart - but since the money belongs to both me and my wife, you have to make compromises every now and then. 😄

But now we would like to invest the amount in an ETF. Our current portfolio, in which the monthly surpluses are invested, looks like this:

• 50 % in the $HMWO (+0,08 %) (HSBC MSCI World ETF, distributing - until the exemption limit is reached, which will probably be soon 🫠 )
• 25 % in the $EQAC (-0,31 %) (Invesco EQQQ NASDAQ-100 ETF, accumulating)
• 10 % in $EWG2 (-1,14 %) (EUWAX Gold II, accumulating)
• 7,5 % in $EIMI (-0,16 %) (iShares Core MSCI EM IMI ETF, accumulating)
• 7,5 % in $QDV5 (-1,08 %) (iShares MSCI India ETF, accumulating)

In addition, my wife saves monthly in the $SPYI (+0,06 %) (SPDR MSCI ACWI IMI ETF, accumulating) with 155.00 EURto build up reserves for her private health insurance when she retires.

In addition, some of our money flows into call money accounts as an emergency reserve, and there is also an amount in the $XEON (+0 %) (Xtrackers II Overnight Rate Swap ETF C).

Now we are considering in which accumulating ETF we should invest the 16,500 euros and the future savings installment should be invested in. I would like to keep it as a separate or new position in one of the custody accounts, as the money will be invested in 17 years - after the fixed interest rate expires - to (partially) pay off the real estate loan. I'm also a fan of having different pots for different occasions. Each month I expect to have 250 to 500 euros in addition to the 16,500 euros.

Which accumulating ETF would be your favorite under these conditions?

Or simply, in one of our existing custody accounts additionally $SPYI (+0,06 %) (SPDR MSCI ACWI IMI ETF) separately from my wife's savings plan, as a separate pot, because it's already a good ETF anyway?

I look forward to your opinion!

A lot of time has passed since my introduction over a month ago and the one or other post. I was not satisfied with my smorgasbord and have once again taken a serious and intensive look at the subject of the stock market.

Thoughts, suggestions from some nice people here on GQ and also posts https://getqu.in/WB1phr/ have really helped me here.

Thank you for that. @DonkeyInvestor , @Mister_ultra , @Epi , @Ph1l1pp , @ShrimpTheGimp , @MoneyISnotREAL , @Staatsmann

After the introductory words, now to the presentation of my portfolio.

I have finally decided on a strategy that I find suitable for me. The core-satellite strategy. Investment period 20 years.

I will gradually reallocate my previous investments and save an additional 600 euros per month in the portfolio.

For me, the decisive point here was that I continuously build up the "core" and use the satellites to pursue my "ideas" and also generate dividend income.

The percentage allocation of the investments to my individual satellites was based on the average return over the last 10 years.

Core (60%)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

HSBC MSCI World UCITS ETF - $HMWS (-0,19 %) - Share 60.0%

Satellites (40%)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

HSBC MSCI Taiwan Capped UCITS ETF - $HTWN (-0,21 %) - Share 4.9%

Xtrackers Euro Stoxx 50 UCITS ETF - $XESX (+0,77 %) - Share 2.4%

Invesco Technology S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF - $XLKS (-0,6 %) - Share 7.8%

Xtrackers Artificial Intelligence and Big Data UCITS ETF - $XAIX (-0,04 %) - 7,0%

iShares MSCI World Energy Sector ETF - $WENS (+0,92 %) - Share 4.2%

Global X Defense Tech UCITS ETF - $ARMG (-0,89 %) - Share 3.6%

EUWAX Gold II - $EWG2 (-1,14 %) - Share 3.0%

Bitwise MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP - $DA20 (-4,77 %) - Share 7.0%

Notes on the satellites:

An MSCI Emerging Markets would be a suitable addition to the core MSCI World. As most emerging markets ETFs rate China quite highly, but I am not convinced of this, I have picked Taiwan and chosen the MSCI index there. $HTWN (-0,21 %)

Technology $XLKS (-0,6 %) and AI $XAIX (-0,04 %) are still markets which, in my opinion, have a lot of potential. These two areas are also the reason why I invest in energy $WENS (+0,92 %) because the energy demand for AI, cloud, etc. is high.

I still see defense as a trend and have finally opted for the Global X Defense Tech $ARMG (-0,89 %) final decision. In my previous post on this, I was more interested in the HANetf Future of Defense $ASWC (-1,79 %) . As the European investment volume of the two ETFs (HanETF = 29.38%, Global X = 28.08%) is almost the same, but the Global X $ARMG (-0,89 %) invests more in the market leaders (Lockheed $LMT (+2,14 %) Northrop $NOC (+1,41 %)General Dynamics $GD (+1,86 %) etc.), it has now been included in the final selection.

I cover the currency sector with EUWAX Gold II $EWG2 (-1,14 %) and Bitwise MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 $DA20 (-4,77 %) . As you have seen from my previous posts, I am reluctant to invest in crypto. That's why it's "only" the Bitwise MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP. This ETP tracks the 20 leading investable crypto assets and is therefore effectively the "MSCI World" for the crypto market.

PS: I have adjusted the crypto ETP slightly downwards in the percentage distribution with a minus of 50%.

downwards. If anyone actually looks at the table, -50% in 2022 is inserted by MIR for regulatory purposes 😉

I look forward to your feedback.

Best regards

Daniel