Bayer
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Bayer: Entre la recuperación y la duda permanente
A comienzos de 2024, muchos inversores —yo entre ellos— vimos en Bayer una oportunidad que parecía razonable. La compañía afrontaba un castigo bursátil evidente tras años de litigios en Estados Unidos por los productos heredados de Monsanto, pero su tamaño, su diversificación y su papel histórico en los sectores farmacéutico y agrícola invitaban a pensar que el mercado había exagerado. Compré acciones en torno a los 35 euros convencido de que la situación, aunque delicada, sería manejable.
Con el paso de los meses quedó claro que no sería tan sencillo. Los pleitos relacionados con el herbicida Roundup resultaron más numerosos, más complejos y mucho más costosos de lo que la mayoría anticipaba. Bayer tuvo que destinar miles de millones a indemnizaciones y ampliar provisiones en varias ocasiones, lo que generó dudas sobre su capacidad para acotar el problema. Cada sentencia desfavorable se traducía en nuevas caídas en la cotización, y la acción pasó a depender más de los tribunales estadounidenses que de la evolución de sus negocios.
Sin embargo, Bayer tiene una sorprendente capacidad para recuperar terreno en momentos que parecen decisivos. En los últimos meses, el panorama ha cambiado ligeramente: el Gobierno de Estados Unidos respaldó que el Tribunal Supremo revise el enfoque de los litigios, y esa posibilidad abrió la puerta a una reducción del impacto legal futuro. El efecto en bolsa fue inmediato. La mera expectativa de que las responsabilidades puedan ser reinterpretadas, limitadas o revisadas ha devuelto un aire de optimismo que la compañía no veía desde hacía tiempo.
Ahora bien, este repunte plantea una cuestión esencial: ¿estamos ante un cambio de tendencia o simplemente ante un alivio temporal? Las cifras siguen recordando que el problema no está resuelto. Bayer mantiene por delante un número considerable de demandas y, aunque sus negocios principales continúan generando ingresos sólidos, el lastre judicial sigue siendo el principal factor que condiciona su valoración en bolsa.
Para quienes entramos en el valor en 2024, la situación actual invita a una reflexión serena. Tras un periodo marcado por sobresaltos y noticias judiciales constantes, aprovechar el repunte para consolidar ganancias no parece una decisión precipitada, sino un ejercicio de orden y disciplina inversora. Bayer podría avanzar si el Tribunal Supremo ofrece un marco más favorable, pero también es cierto que cualquier giro en sentido contrario puede reactivar la volatilidad que ha caracterizado a la acción en los últimos años.
Conviene destacar que Bayer continúa ocupando una posición relevante en dos sectores estratégicos: el farmacéutico y el agrícola. Sus productos tienen presencia global y su capacidad de generar ingresos sigue siendo elevada, incluso en un entorno exigente. Pero la compañía opera bajo una presión extraordinaria, donde cada avance regulatorio o judicial puede modificar las expectativas de los inversores en cuestión de días.
Mi impresión es que la compañía seguirá moviéndose en una franja delicada, donde los avances legales convivirán con dudas persistentes. Es un valor que puede ofrecer alegrías, pero exige una tolerancia al riesgo que no todos los inversores desean mantener. En ocasiones, salir con ganancias tras un periodo tan inestable es, simplemente, un buen cierre.
Bayer avanza, pero todavía bajo la sombra de sus propios litigios. Y para muchos, esa sombra pesa más que cualquier repunte bursátil.
It was a big mistake not to isolate the (known) risks from the Monsanto takeover by creating legally and liability-wise independent subsidiaries for individual risk products.
Unbelievable - loss is decreasing
$BAYN (-2,25 %) . I'm going crazy. After a loss of over 70% following the latest news and speculation, only -58% in the red. This is going to be a real rocket!!! 😂
Bayer shares rise sharply - US government supports the pharmaceutical company in the glyphosate dispute
Just ticked in the Handelsblatt for $BAYN (-2,25 %) ticked in.
The Trump administration is campaigning for the Supreme Court to issue a landmark ruling. A victory could free Bayer from the wave of lawsuits. The share price rises sharply.
Düsseldorf. The Bayer AG has achieved an important im milliardenschweren Rechtsstreit um mögliche Krebsrisiken des glyphosathaltigen Unkrautvernichters Roundup achieved. The US government supports the Group's lawsuit before the US Supreme Court, as the White House announced on Monday. A ruling by the Supreme Court could Bayer largely free the company from a wave of lawsuits in one fell swoop.
The US government's solicitor general has asked the court to accept the case and provide legal clarity. The judges had previously asked for his opinion and generally follow his recommendation. If the lawsuit is admitted, Bayer has a good chance of a positive decision for the company.
The wave of glyphosate lawsuits has been one of Bayer's central problems for years and is weighing heavily on the share price. Investors now apparently see a solution to the legal dispute within reach. Bayer shares rose by almost 15 percent to up to EUR 35 at the start of trading on Tuesday. That would be the highest level since the beginning of 2024.
Glyphosate dispute has already cost Bayer more than ten billion euros
The company caught the glyphosate problem with the 2018 takeover of the US agricultural chemicals group Monsanto. Over 100,000 lawsuits have been filed since then due to alleged cancer risks. Bayer has lost and won cases in court - with no clear direction.
So far, the legal dispute has cost the company more than ten billion euros in settlement payments alone. Bayer has set aside a further seven billion euros for the settlement. More than 60,000 lawsuits are still pending.
In principle, the legal dispute is about a simple question: Does Monsanto, and therefore Bayer, have to warn of cancer risks on the glyphosate package insert? The company denies this. This is because the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) continues to classify the weedkiller as completely safe and does not prescribe any warnings. As the highest US authority, the EPA is responsible for approving the product.
The plaintiffs, on the other hand, are relying on regulations in US states that do not fully follow the EPA's guidelines. This was the basis for their first spectacular victories in court, for example in California and Missouri. Bayer was sentenced to pay damages in the hundreds of millions in some cases.
US government supports the company's arguments
In the cases, Bayer sees a conflict between federal law through the EPA and the law at state level. According to Bayer's lawsuit, the Supreme Court should clarify that the EPA's glyphosate regulation is binding in all states.
The US government is now supporting Bayer's central argument that the approval of a pesticide by a federal authority cannot be undermined by lawsuits in individual states. Specifically, this concerns Bayer's application to overturn a ruling from the state of Missouri, which had awarded a plaintiff compensation of 1.25 million dollars.
The representative of the US government, Attorney General D. John Sauer, explained in his letter that the EPA had repeatedly determined that glyphosate is probably not carcinogenic to humans.
The agency has therefore always approved the labels for Roundup without a corresponding cancer warning. However, if state courts ruled to the contrary, they would undermine the federal agency's scientific assessment.
Source: Handelsblatt 02.12.2025
Dates week 49
As every Sunday, the most important dates for the coming week, as well as the most important news from the past week.
Also as a video:
https://youtube.com/shorts/_U4htLIl06Y?si=6G---E0VAFLpuuYS
Sunday:
22 top economists call on the German government not to adopt the pension package. Clemens Fuest, Veronika Grimm, Monika Schnitzer and Bert Rürup, among others, are of the opinion that a well thought-out pension concept should be presented and no quick fixes adopted.
Monday:
$BAYN (-2,25 %) Bayer brings another blockbuster drug to the home straight. The FXIa hammer Asundexian probably lowers the risk of strokes.
https://stock3.com/news/bayer-bringt-milliardenblockbuster-auf-die-zielgerade-16810955
Tuesday:
It is becoming apparent that $NVDA (+2,34 %) NVIDIA is losing its supremacy in AI chips. $META (+4,57 %) Meta would probably like to $GOOGL (-0,67 %) Google to buy corresponding chips. The Alphabet share is therefore rising. However, one should be aware that far fewer profits are made in a duopoly than in a monopoly.
Wednesday:
The IMF makes some reform proposals for Germany. Property and alcohol tax should be increased to close the budget gaps. Loopholes in inheritance tax should be closed. The IMF also urges the German government to reform its pension system, as have 22 renowned economists. In future, the pension level should be linked to the level of inflation, not to the development of real wages. At this point, one wonders how ignorant a federal government can be when it comes to pensions.
Thursday:
Economic data from the US has made an interest rate cut more likely. This is currently driving the markets and causing Bitcoin to rise again somewhat.
Friday:
Positive development around the pension package. A rethink is taking place. As a supplement to the pension package, a 10 billion euro equity fund is being set up. A drop in the ocean, but a significant change, as we would no longer have a purely pay-as-you-go pension system. In addition, results for a fundamental reform are to be presented in 2026.
Inflation in Germany is expected to be 2.3% in November.
These are the most important dates for the coming week:
Tuesday: 11:00 Inflation data (EUR)
Wednesday: 16:00 ISM economic data (USA)
Thursday: 11:00 Retail sales (EUR)
Can you think of any other dates?
Bayer shares shoot up 9% - these are the reasons!
Bayer has made progress in a clinical trial with Asundexian, a drug for the treatment of strokes. Asundexian has blockbuster potential and catapulted the share price up more than 9% on Monday.
Summarized for you
Bayer makes progress with Asundexian, shares up 9%.
Drug lowers stroke risk, FDA fast-track.
Market potential of Asundexian at 3 billion euros.
Report: The year-end rally rolls on
Five highly undervalued stocks from the DAX
With the current price/earnings ratio (P/E ratio), the DAX is overvalued by 25 percent compared to its 20-year average.
However, five of the 40 shares are valued more than 30 percent lower than their long-term average. The valuation discount is 51 percent for one share and as much as 73 percent for one share.
Handelsblatt presents these 5 stocks, the following is an excerpt from the article.
Vonovia $VNA (-0,35 %) : 33 percent valuation discount
Germany's largest housing group is growing again. In the past two years, Vonovia had not started any new construction projects due to the turnaround in interest rates and increased construction costs. Now 3000 new apartments are to be built and unrenovated properties purchased and renovated.
Analysts expect an average net profit of 2.15 billion euros for the year as a whole. The trend is pointing upwards: Six weeks ago it was just over two billion euros, twelve weeks ago it was 1.9 billion euros. Vonovia is forecasting the highest operating result in its history for 2026.
With a P/E ratio of 12.2 based on the profits expected by analysts over the next four quarters, the share is moderately valued and 33 percent lower than the long-term average.
VW $VOW (+2,83 %): 35 percent valuation discount
VW was in the red in the third quarter. After a profit of 1.56 billion euros in the same period of the previous year, the Group posted a billion-euro loss.
This was caused by charges of 7.5 billion euros, primarily due to increased customs duties, the adjustment of the product strategy at Porsche $P911 (+4,47 %) and write-downs on Porsche's goodwill.
By contrast, the long-weakening core brand Volkswagen improved. A comprehensive cost-cutting program also had an impact.
For the current full year, analysts are forecasting an average net profit of 6.5 billion euros after 11.35 billion euros last year. The trend is pointing steeply downwards, as three months ago the estimate was just under nine billion euros.
Taking this sharply lowered profit forecast into account, VW is nevertheless valued extremely low with a P/E ratio of just 4.4. This is a discount of 35 percent compared to the Group's own average. No other DAX stock is cheaper - with the exception of Porsche Holding, which belongs to VW.
FMC $FME (-1,19 %)
: 41 percent valuation discount
No company in the DAX is as dependent on the US market as the dialysis specialist Fresenius Medical Care (FMC). FMC generates around 70 percent of its sales in North America.
However, business on the most important continent for the healthcare specialist is - slightly - under pressure. The treatment figures of the blood purification specialist are merely stagnating.
In the third quarter, however, total sales rose by ten percent to 4.9 billion euros compared to the same period last year, exceeding market expectations by three percent. Currency-adjusted earnings before interest and taxes rose by 28 percent to 574 million euros. This also exceeded the company's expectations.
The rising profits at a share price that has only stagnated for six months mean that the valuation has fallen sharply. With a P/E ratio of 10.1 based on the profits forecast by analysts for the next four quarters, the share is valued 41% lower than the 20-year average.
Bayer $BAYN (-2,25 %) : 51 percent valuation discount
With a P/E ratio of only 5.6 based on the average net profits expected by analysts over the next four quarters, Bayer shares are valued lower than all other major pharmaceutical stocks in the western world. Compared to its own 20-year average, the discount is 51 percent.
The biggest construction site for the Group is a bad decision made ten years ago: the purchase of the controversial US seed and pesticide manufacturer Monsanto. Its weedkiller glyphosate is blamed by patients for their cancer and they are demanding billions in compensation.
The favorable valuation is based on the hope that profit expectations will be fulfilled and that no new write-downs in the billions will be made. However, this is just as uncertain as an end to the lawsuits. Success with new blockbusters in the pharmaceutical division is also by no means a foregone conclusion.
Zalando $ZAL (-0,19 %)
: 73 percent valuation discount
Anyone buying this DAX stock is paying a P/E ratio of 15.4, which is not cheap compared to the DAX, but the share is valued 73 percent lower than its own long-term average.
The share is currently trading more than 70 percent below its record high, although the company is expected to earn more in the current financial year than ever before. After a net profit of 251 million euros in the previous year, analysts are forecasting a good 290 million euros for the current year.
Source text (excerpt) & graphic: Handelsblatt, 07.11.2025
Palantir cracks 200$ and is at a new all-time high. I am now up a quarter of a million euros / 2,400% 📈🤑💰💶
Congratulations to all those who didn't listen to KGV beginners and stuck to their guns. I will continue to hold. Beginners who are blinded by the P/E ratio have stocks like Bayer and VW in their portfolios 📉. What percentage is Palantir up for you?
And yes: I have Bayer in my portfolio at a high loss. I got the shares from an estate and never sold them. Nor will I.
There are people who go for tech stocks. There are people who go for value. There are people who do something completely different. Everyone should be happy with their own approach.
Dates week 41
As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.
Also as a video:
https://youtube.com/shorts/vgEC8AK9nrA?si=Luo_VSckLrkhrVLu
Monday:
Despite fairly high inflation, Bank of England central banker David Ramsden sees further interest rate cuts. The prime rate currently stands at 4.0%, with inflation at 3.8%. The BoE left the prime rate at 4.0% in the middle of the month, after 5 cuts in a row.
Tuesday:
Inflation in Germany rises to 2.4%, slightly above expectations. While energy prices are falling, services in particular are becoming more expensive.
Wednesday:
At 2.2%, the inflation rate in the eurozone as a whole is also above the ECB's target of 2.0%. The price driver of food costs in particular makes further interest rate cuts unlikely for the time being.
Pharmaceutical companies$BAYN (-2,25 %) Bayer benefits from Trump's announcement of the new government platform TrumpRX. In future, US Americans will be able to buy medicines more cheaply via this platform. After an initial deal with $PFE (+0,08 %) Pfizer, other pharmaceutical manufacturers are now hoping for deals and thus tariff relief. The threatened tariffs are 100%.
Donald Trump cannot dismiss Fed member Lisa Cook for the time being. The Supreme Court ruled that the council member can keep her position for the time being. However, there will be another decision in January. The markets initially reacted calmly, as it underscores the Fed's independence.
For the first time in 6 years, the USA is in shutdown again. Many employees of federal authorities are being sent on forced leave.
https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2025-10/usa-shutdown-behoerden-haushalt-republikaner-demokraten
Friday:
While it was German Unity Day in Germany, it was business as usual in the USA. The labor market figures are of course interesting in this context. However, they were not available today because the Bureau of Labor Statistics was on forced leave due to the shutdown. Almost like the public holiday in Germany.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna235298
These are the most important dates for the coming week:
Wednesday: 01:50 Current account (Japan)
Wednesday: 20:00 FOMC Minutes (USA)
Thursday: 08:00 Trade Balance (DE)
Can you think of any other dates?
Bayer
$BAYN (-2,25 %) i didn't think i would become so bullish on the company now, but i will start a small position at the next small dip. The glyphosate thing is not over but everything will be decided in 2026 and it is really 50 50, donald thrump has something in the big beautiful bill regarding pesticides that is good for bayer. Apart from that, america is dependent on pesticides. I would recommend that you look up more details yourself, because you can form your own opinion.
Conclusion
I do not believe that trump will change the big beautiful bill despite kennedy's advice. If bayer wins the lawsuit there will be 7 billion on top of the 6 billion cash is a doubling +-. I will therefore open a small position soon and speculate.
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