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$GTLB (-7 %)
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$JD (-4,37 %)
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$MRK (-3,74 %)
$MRVL (-4,35 %)
$GPS (-1,85 %)
$COST (+0,73 %)
$IOT
$LHA (-3,99 %)

In the S&P 500, 224 out of 500 shares are in the red this year. "Welt" has analyzed which stocks have the potential to catch up.

The criteria:

The stocks must have lost at least 20 percent in price since the beginning of the year, have at least double-digit price potential according to analysts' estimates and also be recommended as a buy by at least 50 percent of augurs.

The candidates (selection):

$UNH (-1,85 %) - United Health

$DECK (-4,41 %) - Deckers Outdoor

$UPS (-1,42 %) - UPS

$HAL (-1,23 %) - Halliburton

$MRK (-3,74 %) - Merck

$NCLH (-4,16 %) - Norwegian Cruise Line

$IQV (-0,03 %) - IQVIA Holdings

Source: Welt, 14.05.25 (excerpt) | Image: ChatGPT

The world's population is getting older and older, an irreversible demographic change with considerable economic consequences.

This article is intended to provide investment ideas and impetus. The stocks mentioned do not, of course, constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of potential beneficiaries of demographic change. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.

The main source is the short analysis "How to invest as the global population ages" by Goldman Sachs [1], which, however, does not name any specific stocks.

I have also added additional sources and charts.

__________

🌍 Demographic change: growth and ageing of the world's population

The world's population will grow to almost 10 billion people by 2050. But it is not just the number of people that is increasing, their age structure is also changing dramatically. [2]

Increase in the older population:

• The proportion of people aged 60 and over is rising from 8% (1950) to 21.5% (2050).
• In 2050, 2.1 billion people will belong to the over-60 age group.

Source: [2]

Regional differences:

Europe & North America have the oldest populations & remain the most affected demographically.

Latin America, the Caribbean & Asia: The proportion of over-60s will more than double between 2015 and 2050, reaching around 25 %.

Africa remains the youngest region: in 2015, there were 21 countries worldwide with a birth rate of 5 children per woman, 19 of which were in Africa. However, it should be noted that current statistics from 2024 show that the birth rate per woman in Africa was already just 4.07 in 2023 and could fall to 2.79 by 2050. [3]

While industrialized countries are struggling with an ageing society, Africa remains the most dynamic and youngest region in the world. This development can also have an economic impact and open up new investment opportunities. [2]

Goldman Sachs also comments in the article with similar figures, according to which the global population is expected to increase by around 20% by 2050 and senior citizens will make up a disproportionate share. The number of people over the age of 65 is expected to double from 800 million to 1.6 billion during this period. [1]

In view of this demographic development, there are opportunities to benefit from precisely this trend. Opportunities lie in targeted investments in sectors that could benefit from the growing proportion of older people.

🚑 Healthcare: A growing market worth billions

Facts:

• In the USA, people over the age of 65 already account for 36% of healthcare expenditure, although they only make up 18% of the population. Age-related diseases such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes and neurological disorders are driving up costs. [1]
• Alzheimer's cases are even expected to double worldwide by 2050.

Possible profiteers:

Medical technology

• Medtronic ($MDT (-1,27 %) ) - (cardiac pacemakers, diabetes technology)
• Stryker ($SYK (-0,48 %) ) - (orthopaedic implants, surgical devices)
• Siemens Healthineers ($SHL (-2,69 %) ) - (imaging, diagnostics)

Pharmaceuticals

• Novo Nordisk ($NOVO B (-2,41 %) ) - (Diabetes & Obesity)
• Eli Lilly ($LLY (-0,99 %) ) - (Alzheimer's, Diabetes)
• Roche ($ROG (-0,37 %) ) - (Oncology, Diagnostics)

🏡 Senior Living & Care: Bottlenecks in nursing homes worldwide

Facts:

The UK has a shortfall of over 30,000 senior units by 2028. [1]

In Germany, France and Italy there is a shortage of nursing home places due to the ageing population. [1]

In the US, only 2% of people over 65 live in nursing homes, leading to an increasing demand for home care and telemedicine. [1]

Potential beneficiaries:

Care providers

• Brookdale Senior Living ($BKD (+0 %) ) - (senior living, care facilities)

Homecare

• ResMed ($RMD (+0,75 %) ) - (sleep apnea, ventilators)
• Fresenius Medical Care ($FME (-0,94 %) ) - (dialysis, home therapy)
• Coloplast ($COLO B (-4,13 %) ) - (ostomy care, incontinence products)

Telemedicine

• Teladoc Health ($TDOC (-2,15 %) ) - (virtual doctor visits, digital health solutions)
• Hims & Hers ($HIMS (-4,27 %) ) - (telemedicine & e-health)

Anti-Aging

• L'Oréal ($OR (-3,87 %) ) - (skin care, cosmetics)
• Estee Lauder ($EL (-2,21 %) ) - (luxury cosmetics, skin rejuvenation)
• Revance Therapeutics ($RVNC ) - (Botox alternative, wrinkle treatment)

🚢 Leisure & consumption: The new "silver economy"

The following chart shows the distribution of wealth in Germany depending on the age of the main income earner. [4]

It is clear that older people tend to have higher wealth than younger age groups. This is reflected in the significantly higher values for the percentiles for age groups aged 50 and over. In particular, the groups aged between 50 and 74 have the highest assets.

The trends are also similar internationally:

• The wealth of older people is 3x that of millennials.
• Over-60s control more than 50% of consumer spending in many developed countries.
• The global silver economy could reach a volume of USD 15 trillion by 2030 (Oxford Economics).

This observation underlines the economic importance of the older generations and their central role in wealth distribution and consumer spending.

Possible beneficiaries:

Luxury

• LVMH ($MC (-4,19 %) ) - (fashion, jewelry, wine & spirits)
• Hermès ($RMS (-3,47 %) ) - (Exclusive Fashion & Accessories)
• Richemont ($CFR (-3,81 %) ) - (Swiss luxury watches & jewelry)

Cruise (Over 60s book a third of all cruises worldwide [1])

• Royal Caribbean ($RCL (-0,04 %) ) - (Cruises for seniors & families)
• Carnival ($CCL (-3,37 %) ) - (mass market cruises)
• Norwegian Cruise Line ($NCLH (-4,16 %) ) - (premium cruises)

Motorhome manufacturers/ recreational vehicles (47% of motorhome users are over 55 years old, In the UK, two thirds of over 55s have a motorcycle license, which may indicate a growing market for motorcycles and accessories. [1])

• Thor Industries ($THO (-5,29 %) ) - (motorhomes, campers)
• Winnebago ($WGO (+0,6 %) ) - (motorhomes & caravans)
• Harley-Davidson ($HOG (+4,66 %) ) - (motorcycles and entry-level electric motorcycles)

🤖 Technology & automation: solution to the labor shortage

Facts:

The labor shortage caused by an aging society is becoming a global challenge. Automation, AI and robotics could help close the skills gap. [1]

Profiteers:

• ABB ($ABBNY (-4,64 %) ) - (industrial robotics, automation)
• Fanuc ($6954 (-10,35 %) ) - (robotics, factory automation)
• Intuitive Surgical ($ISRG (+0,25 %) ) - (robot-assisted surgery)
• Siemens ($SIE (-5,04 %) )- (automation & also medical technology)

🧠 Conclusion:

Demographic change offers long-term investment opportunities. Early investment in the right sectors can benefit from rising spending on health, care, leisure and technology.

I myself am still looking for one or two individual investments and am a little annoyed that I didn't get into Hims & Hers earlier, although I have been on the verge of doing so several times. Apart from the luxury segment with LVMH, the portfolio also includes Siemens as a conglomerate in the field of automation.

Do you explicitly take demographic change into account in your investments, e.g. in the form of individual shares?

Which shares do you have in your portfolio or do you still see them as an opportunity?

Thanks for reading!

_________

Sources:

[1] https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/how-to-invest-as-the-global-population-ages

[2] https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/zahlen-und-fakten/globalisierung/52811/demografischer-wandel/

[3] https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1343516/umfrage/entwicklung-der-fertilitaetsrate-in-afrika/

[4]

https://www.iwd.de/artikel/mit-dem-alter-waechst-das-vermoegen-489710/

$NCLH (-4,16 %)

Norwegian Cruise Line (NYSE: NCLH ) reported a significant increase in revenue for the fourth quarter with figures of $1.99 billion compared to analysts' consensus of $1.97 billion. Despite a loss per share of -$0.18, which was $0.06 below the consensus estimate of -$0.12, the company's share price rose 6% on robust first quarter earnings guidance that beat expectations.

The company's fourth quarter performance, which represented a 32% increase in revenue compared to the same period in 2019, was accompanied by an optimistic outlook for the first quarter of 2024. Norwegian Cruise Line expects adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.12. significantly higher than the consensus estimate of -$0.20. This forecast contributed to positive investor sentiment, which was reflected in the upward movement of the share price.

For the full year 2024, the company forecasts adjusted earnings per share of USD 1.23, in line with the consensus estimate. The company's President and CEO, Harry Sommer, highlighted the year's achievements, including the delivery of three new ships and a record-breaking booking position and pricing for 2024 voyages. Sommer emphasized the company's commitment to innovation and exceptional guest experiences, which are expected to drive performance in the coming year.

With GAAP net income of $166.2 million, or $0.39 per share, the cruise operator also reported a return to profitability for the full year for the first time since 2019. Adjusted EBITDA amounted to USD 1.861 billion, in line with the forecast of USD 1.860 billion, despite a negative impact of USD 0.07 from foreign exchange fluctuations. The company's focus on cost reduction and efficiency and a margin improvement initiative contributed to lower operating costs and four consecutive quarters of year-over-year improvement in adjusted net cruise costs excluding fuel per capacity day.

Occupancy for the year reached 102.9%, in line with guidance of 102.6%, and total revenue per passenger cruise day increased approximately 17% compared to 2019. In addition to financial growth, Norwegian Cruise Line announced a revised climate change strategy and set interim targets to reduce greenhouse gas intensity, demonstrating its commitment to sustainability.

As the cruise industry continues to recover from the challenges of the pandemic, Norwegian Cruise Line's strong performance and forward-looking guidance point to a positive trajectory for the company and its stakeholders.

Source: Investing.com

getquin Daily Summary 09.08.2022

Hello getquin,

Very cool to see all your #sankey to see your money flows! Added nevertheless gladly the #sankey to your posts so that other users can find your posts better.🚀

Feel free to check out https://www.finanzfluss.de/rechner/flussdiagramm/ to create your Sankey diagram!

Europe🌍:

1. fintech Nuri is insolvent

The Berlin-based crypto bank has not received any new investments from backers. About 500,000 customers and total assets of about 500 million euros are affected. The fintech had been working hard to raise fresh capital in recent hours, but it is now clear: Berlin-based cryptobank Nuri is insolvent. The company announced the information on Tuesday afternoon.

Surprising news: https://bit.ly/3bK4zgP

America🌏:

2nd Devon Energy buys Validus for $1.8 billion

Shale oil producer Devon Energy (DVN.N) announced Tuesday that it will buy Validus Energy, an operator in the Eagle Ford Basin, for $1.8 billion.

The deal comes at a time when oil producers are benefiting massively from a surge in oil and gas prices as sanctions against major producer Russia following its invasion of Ukraine curb supply amid a rebound in demand.

Hedge fund Elliott Management invested in Validus last year to help the company acquire assets in Eagle Ford, Texas, from Ovintiv Inc for $880 million.

More on the deal: https://reut.rs/3QebOwr

🟩 $DVN (-0,79 %) (🔼 +0,76%)

Special:🎤

3. Serena Williams announces her retirement from tennis

Tennis legend Serena Williams announced her retirement in a Vogue article published Tuesday. "I've never liked the word retirement," Williams wrote. "Perhaps the best word to describe what I'm about to do is evolution. I'm here to tell you that I'm evolving away from tennis and toward other things that are important to me."

Williams, who turns 41 next month, has 73 singles titles, 23 doubles titles and more than $94 million in winnings in her career.

Do you follow tennis? https://cnb.cx/3QqkShm

• Domino's Pizza announces withdrawal from Italy

• Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway now owns more than 20% of Occidental (exploration and production of oil and natural gas)

Quarterly figures:

🚘Continental $CON (-3,12 %)

Continental AG on Tuesday reported second-quarter figures that missed analysts' forecasts and sales that exceeded expectations. Shares of the automotive supplier are down 27% year-to-date, trading at €67.11, below their 52-week high, and underperforming the DAX, which is down 14.84% so far this year.

EPS: 🟥 € 1.24 expected vs € -1.26 published; Difference: -201.69 %

⛴ Norwegian Cruise Line $NCLH (-4,16 %)

EPS: 🟥 -0.86 $ expected vs -1.14 $ published

Sales: 🟥 Missed by $1.2 billion

Stocks of the day:

🟩 TOP. $NLSN 27,00 € (🔼 +20,54%)

➡️ Market research company

👍 Dividend payout

🟥 FLOP $HKD 276 $ (🔽 -31,85%)

➡️ software solutions provider

👎 Volatile share

🟥 Most searched $NVDA (-1,55 %) , 167,68 (🔽 -3,94%)

🟥 Most traded $BBBY , 9,92 (🔽 -18,1%)

🟥 S&P500, 4,120.63 (🔽 -0.47%)

🟥 DAX, 13,566.04 (🔽 -0.86%)

🟥 bitcoin ₿, 22,601.84 (🔽 -3.23%)

Time: 17:00 CEST

Fun Fact:

Did you know that 65% of the autobahns in Germany have no speed limit?

How do you see stock in terms of postcorona time?

I'm thinking of getting in, may need a few encouraging kicks in the butt ;)

What is your opinion on this?

was for a bet