$ONON (-1,21 %)

🔹 Revenue: CHF 726.6M (Est. CHF 680.5M) 🟢; +43.0% YoY

🔹 Adj. EPS: CHF 0.21 (Est. CHF 0.15) 🟢

🔹 Gross Margin: 59.9% vs. 59.7% YoY

🔹 Adj. EBITDA: CHF 119.9M; +54.8% YoY

Segment & Regional Performance

🔹 DTC Sales: CHF 276.9M; +45.3% YoY

🔹 Wholesale Sales: CHF 449.7M; +41.5% YoY

🔹 DTC Share: 38.1% of total revenue

🔹 EMEA Revenue: CHF 168.6M; +33.6% YoY

🔹 Americas Revenue: CHF 437.4M; +32.7% YoY

🔹 Asia-Pacific Revenue: CHF 120.6M; +130.1% YoY

🔹 Shoes: CHF 680.9M; +40.5% YoY

🔹 Apparel: CHF 38.1M; +93.1% YoY

🔹 Accessories: CHF 7.6M; +99.2% YoY

Guidance (FY25)

🔹 Revenue Growth: +28% constant currency → at least CHF 2.86B

🔹 Gross Margin: 60.0% – 60.5%

🔹 Adj. EBITDA Margin: 16.5% – 17.5%

I screened 7 global blue chips with a value/growth balance using my PASS and Buffett-style filters. Here’s the verdict:

🔝 1. Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli ($LISP (-0,68 %) )

🟩 Score: 89 – Excellent

📈 WB Score: 7 (Grade B)

📌 Insider-led, durable moat, elite brand.

🚨 BUT: Price per share (CHF 12,210!) makes it impractical for my strategy.

🥈 2. Nestlé ($NESN (-0,3 %) )

🟨 Score: 75 – Strong

📈 WB Score: 4 (Grade D)

⚖️ Balanced income with global stability. Mildly overvalued but still attractive.

🥉 3. Mondelez ($MDLZ (+0,36 %) )

🟨 Score: 70 – Strong

📈 WB Score: 4 (Grade D)

🍫 Snack leader with consistent cash flows. Mildly overvalued, but solid anchor.

⚖️ Honorable Mentions

• Roche ($ROG (+2,15 %) ) – ⚖️ Fairly priced, insider-led, great pipeline, but slight value trap warning.
• Zurich Insurance ($ZURN (+0,6 %) ) – Stable, shareholder-friendly.
• UBS ($UBSG (-0,55 %) ) – Riskier financial play, some trap signals.
• On Holding ($ONON (-1,21 %)) – Growth potential, but overvalued; needs close monitoring.

🧠 Strategy Notes

✅ Favoring undervalued or stable-yield stocks with clear rotation plans.

❌ LISP is a dream stock, but high entry price makes it unsuitable for my dividend + compounding approach.

But I’m convinced it would make a fine addition to a portfolio and I will keep an eye on it and have it as one of my white whales!

$ONON (-1,21 %)

🔹 EPS: CHF 0.27 (Est. CHF 0.18) 🟢; UP +50% YoY

🔹 Revenue: CHF 606.6M (Est. CHF 594.5M) 🟢; UP +35.7% YoY

Q4 Key Metrics:

🔹 Gross Profit: CHF 376.8M (Est. CHF 367M) 🟢; UP +39.5% YoY

🔹 Gross Margin: 62.1% (Est. 61.7%) 🟢; UP +171 bps YoY

🔹 EBITDA: CHF 99.4M (Est. CHF 97M) 🟢; UP +38.3% YoY

🔹 EBITDA Margin: 16.4% (Est. 16.3%) 🟢; UP +28 bps YoY

🔹 Net Income: CHF 89.5M (Prior CHF -26.8M) 🟢

🔹 Inventory: CHF 419M (Est. CHF 417M) 🟡; UP +17.6% YoY

Segment Performance:

🔹 Wholesale: CHF 310M (Est. CHF 303M) 🟢; UP +28.8% YoY

🔹 Direct-to-Consumer (DTC): CHF 296M (Est. CHF 291M) 🟢; UP +43.1% YoY

Regional Breakdown:

🔹 EMEA: CHF 147M (Est. CHF 137M) 🟢; UP +31.6% YoY

🔹 Americas: CHF 365M (Est. CHF 396M) 🔴; UP +27.9% YoY

🔹 APAC: CHF 74M (Est. CHF 61M) 🟢; UP +117.9% YoY

FY25 Guidance:

🔹 Revenue Growth: 27%+ (Est. 28.2%) 🔴

🔹 Gross Margin: 60.5% (Est. 60.9%) 🔴; DOWN -13 bps YoY

🔹 EBITDA Margin: 17.3% (Est. 17.3%) 🔴; UP +55 bps YoY

🔹 FY25 Revenue Outlook: CHF 2.94B (Est. CHF 2.96B) 🟡

Strategic & Business Updates:

🔹 DTC Growth: Record 48.8% of Q4 Revenue

🔹 Global Expansion: Nearly 50 Own Stores Opened

🔹 Milestone: CHF 100M+ in Apparel Sales

🔹 New Tech: Launched LightSpray™ Innovation

🔹 Brand Momentum: Strengthened via Roger Federer, Zendaya, & FKA twigs Partnerships

CEO David Allemann’s Commentary:

🔸 "2024 was a defining year, elevating On’s presence globally. Our partnerships and continued innovation have made On a beloved brand. Looking ahead, we are confident in sustaining long-term brand love and growth.”

Huge fan of $ONON (-1,21 %) On running shoes. We think the brand is strong and lends to the stock having great long-term potential.

All these stocks hit new 52 WEEK HIGHS at some point today

Apple $AAPL (-0,21 %)

Affirm $AFRM (+1,03 %)

Brookfield $BN (+0 %)

Dutch Bros $BROS

Citi $C (-0,3 %)

Cameco $CCO (-0,31 %)

Carnival $CCL (+1,66 %)

Marvell $MRVL (-2,05 %)

Norwegian $NCLH (+0,7 %)

On Holding $ONON (-1,21 %)

Palantir $PLTR (+0,57 %)

Royal Caribbean $RCL (+2,2 %)

Rocket Lab $RKLB (+1,02 %)

Shake Shack $SHAK (+2,01 %)

Square $SQ (+1,04 %)

Trade Desk $TTD (-1,93 %)

Visa $V (+0,74 %)

Walmart $WMT (+1,58 %)

$ONON (-1,21 %) | On Holding AG Q3 '24 Earnings Highlights:

🔹 Revenue: CHF 635.8M (Est. CHF 618.7M) 🟢; UP +32.3% YoY

🔹 Core EPS: CHF 0.09 (Est. CHF 0.15) 🔴

🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: CHF 120.1M; UP +47.7% YoY

🔹 Gross Profit Margin: 60.6% (Prior Year: 59.9%)

FY24 Guidance: 

🔹 Revenue: CHF 2.29B (Est. CHF 2.31B) 🟡

🔹 Gross Profit Margin: Expected ~60.5%

🔹 Adj EBITDA Margin: Projected at upper end of 16.0%-16.5%

Segment:

🔸Direct-to-Consumer (DTC): Revenue UP +49.8% YoY; DTC channel now 38.8% of total sales, UP +450 basis points

🔸Wholesale: Revenue UP +23.2% YoY

Regional Breakdown:

🔹 EMEA: CHF 165.8M; UP +15.1% YoY

🔹 Americas: CHF 395.5M; UP +34.1% YoY

🔹 APAC: CHF 74.6M; UP +79.3% YoY

Product Category Breakdown:

🔸Shoes: CHF 603.7M; UP +32.1% YoY

🔸Apparel: CHF 26.8M; UP +33.4% YoY

🔸Accessories: CHF 5.3M; UP +53.9% YoY

CEO Commentary: 

🔸 "Our record-breaking results this quarter underscore the power of On's premium positioning and strong global demand. The remarkable growth in our DTC channel and rising brand awareness fuel our confidence as we approach the holiday season."

Additional Business Highlights: 

🔸 Achieved highest gross profit margin since IPO

🔸 Significant brand momentum driven by high-profile partnerships and successful product launches

🔸 Continued expansion in APAC and strategic store openings worldwide