The Maastricht Treaty requires eurozone countries to maintain an annual budget deficit below 3 percent and public debt below 60 percent of GDP. At the height of the euro crisis in 2012, France and Germany were still on par at around 90 percent. Since then, Germany has moved closer to meeting the Maastricht criteria, with its debt now at about 64 percent, while France’s debt has risen to about 117 percent—and this during a period of historically low interest rates. That is why rising long-term interest rates are so problematic for Paris: if existing debt is refinanced at higher rates, the interest burden will skyrocket.

Politicians are underestimating the problem: Some candidates are bringing up the possibility of a debt haircut, as was done in Greece before the bailout package and the IMF intervention. The yield spread between French and German government bonds is already widening significantly, while former crisis-hit countries like Spain are not under pressure to the same extent. This is a warning sign for the eurozone; after all, France is one of its largest economies. We can expect downward pressure on the euro’s value and, consequently, additional inflation. This could affect non-government stores of value such as $GOLD and $BTC (+1,67 %) could benefit from this.

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The CPI (U.S. inflation indicator) wasn’t the only inflation story last week. U.S. diesel prices have risen above $6 per gallon for the first time, and the price of oil in Shanghai rose significantly as China appears to be slowing the drawdown of its reserves—a bad sign for global inflation that aligns with Iran’s interests ahead of the midterms. Coupled with robust labor market data and strong inflation, the Fed has little room to maneuver. This is also unfavorable for the Treasury: Interest rate hikes directly impact debt service costs, while buybacks have so far failed to depress long-term yields.

The bigger factor for growth is likely to be the wave of AI investment. Whether the massive AI spending will pay off is becoming more questionable: Frontier models do not consistently outperform cheaper open-source alternatives, and the circular investment structure could become a problem if rising long-term interest rates make financing more difficult.

The bottom line is that monetary policy #bitcoin short-term potential. Both plausible outcomes—a recession accompanied by interest rate cuts, or yield control that tips into fiscal dominance—boil down to the same devaluation scenario, an environment that $GOLD and $BTC (+1,67 %) favors.

You can invest in Bitcoin through the following platform: $BITC (+1,77 %)

The latest U.S. inflation data is dampening hopes for a rapid easing of monetary policy. In particular, the surprisingly high core inflation rate increases the risk that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive stance for longer or raise interest rates again. For #bitcoin this represents headwinds in the short term: Following inflows of about 1.3 billion U.S. dollars the previous week, investors have withdrawn 243 million U.S. dollars from digital asset investment products so far this week. A sustained break above $80,000 is therefore likely to be more difficult for the time being.

In the medium term, however, the picture could change. The U.S. Treasury is already stepping up its repurchases of long-term government bonds, but has barely managed to lower yields as a result. Persistent inflation and fiscal concerns have so far overshadowed the impact of these purchases. If financing costs remain high, political pressure for a significantly larger buyback program could increase.

Such an intervention would exacerbate concerns about government debt, fiscal dominance, and the dollar’s long-term purchasing power. It is precisely this environment that reinforces the narrative of monetary devaluation, from which scarce assets such as $BTC (+1,67 %) and $GOLD could benefit.

$BITC (+1,77 %)

The latest CPI data was not good news for $BTC (+1,67 %). Core inflation came in slightly higher than expected, thereby increasing the likelihood that the Fed will remain hawkish—just when the market had been hoping for weaker inflation data to serve as a catalyst for a breakout above $80,000. This sentiment is also reflected in fund flows: After about $1.3 billion in inflows into digital investment products last week, outflows of $243 million have been recorded so far this week.

The real catalyst, however, could come from the U.S. Treasury. Despite larger purchases at the long end, the expanded bond buyback program has so far failed to push yields down noticeably—a sign of the enormous pressure on the bond market caused by fiscal concerns and a persistently high term premium. If this continues, pressure will mount on Treasury Secretary Bessent to intervene more aggressively—with rising oil prices breathing down his neck, the risk of a significantly larger, “bazooka-style” purchase program increases.

Such an escalation would further fuel the debasement narrative, which has recently been $BTC (+1,67 %) and $GOLD . The situation for #bitcoin is thus two-sided: in the short term, the CPI figure is a headwind, but the bond-buyback program—which has been ineffective so far—could become one of the stronger catalysts in the medium term.

(Author: James Butterfill, CoinShares’ Head of Research)

You can invest in Bitcoin through the following vehicle: $BITC (+1,77 %)

The U.S. Treasury is buying more long-term Treasury bonds than usual—outside of its normal schedule. Officially, this is not a new QE program, but investors see it as a signal: Washington apparently wants to cap long-term interest rates. This increases pressure on the Fed to lower short-term interest rates—even as inflation remains stubbornly high and the Fed has recently shown itself to be rather cautious. This contradiction is eroding confidence in the dollar and benefiting investments such as $GOLD and $BTC (+1,67 %) the so-called “debasement trade.”

In the case of #bitcoin , something unusual came into play: For an entire year, hedges against falling prices on the options markets were conspicuously expensive—a sign of just how cautiously many investors were positioned. Following statements by U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, the picture abruptly reversed; strong ETF inflows triggered a sharp rally, during which the price rose by double digits within a few days. The pattern is reminiscent of January 2023, the end of the last bear market. Following this strong rally, a breather is likely for now—but the chances that the bear market is actually over continue to rise.

$BITC (+1,77 %)

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Last week, Japan and the U.S. Treasury Department took coordinated action—Japan sold euros and propped up the yen after it had fallen to record lows. But Japan’s currency weakness has deeper roots: Inflation is picking up, while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is keeping its monetary policy far too loose. Yet Japan has little room to maneuver. Public debt stands at around 230 percent of GDP, and the BOJ holds about half of it. If the central bank were to raise interest rates significantly, it would incur enormous costs—but any delay in normalization further erodes confidence in the yen.

The real risk lies in the interest rate differential with the U.S. Higher Japanese yields would narrow the spread with U.S. yields and could trigger a massive unwinding of carry trades—a scenario that would weigh on risk assets and intensify selling pressure on U.S. Treasuries. That is why the BOJ is forced to sell U.S. Treasuries to defend the yen without raising its own interest rates. That was also the reason for Washington’s intervention: to limit these sales—at a time when the 30-year Treasury yield had risen to its highest level since 2007. However, the BOJ seems too complacent. The longer normalization is postponed, the greater the risk of a sudden, sharp adjustment.

The most likely outcome is precisely such a broad unwinding of carry trades. That would hit the U.S. bond market at a particularly fragile moment—yields are already elevated, the federal debt continues to grow, and government bond issuance and refinancing remain substantial, with a maturity structure heavily concentrated in the short-term segment after the market had positioned itself for interest rate cuts that had been expected prior to the Iran conflict. Additional selling pressure in such an environment could become massive and force the Federal Reserve into its customary role as buyer of last resort. Whether through Fed liquidity injections or a highly indebted BOJ fighting to preserve the yen’s credibility—the message is the same: The macro environment is becoming increasingly favorable for scarce stores of value such as $GOLD and $BTC (+1,67 %).

$BITC (+1,77 %)

The U.S.-Iran agreement now appears to be on hold: Last week brought fresh retaliatory measures and renewed pressure on the Strait of Hormuz. Markets had already priced in a return to normalcy and moved on, but the normalization process is proceeding slowly. While shipping traffic has recovered, it remains well below pre-crisis levels—and the renewed tensions are now jeopardizing this recovery in the short term. As the attached chart shows, heightened geopolitical risks have historically been closely linked to higher inflation, in a remarkably linear relationship. So far, reserves have cushioned the shock, but they are running low, and inflation fears are growing. Paradoxically, the next CPI report could come in negative thanks to the sharp drop in oil prices in June—which will be relevant for the next Fed meeting—but the relief could prove short-lived. The defining feature of this oil shock is not the price level, but its duration, which the market likely underestimates. The Fed faces a dilemma: an AI-driven economy showing signs of overheating, coupled with energy-driven inflation, argues for higher interest rates in the short term. However, oil-driven inflation acts like a tax on consumption, and in an increasingly K-shaped economy, it increases the risk of recession—which argues more for rate cuts than for hikes. Ultimately, this uncertainty typically favors safe-haven assets. Notably, however: $BTC (+1,67 %) and $GOLD are among the few assets that have underperformed since the beginning of the year.

You can invest in Bitcoin through the following platform: $BITC (+1,77 %)

The market is showing several signs of overheating. Investors are taking on unprecedented risks, their cash reserves are nearly depleted, and capital is flowing into high-risk, leveraged funds. South Korea’s stock market is experiencing unprecedented volatility. The clearest warning sign, however, comes from the bond market: Demand for tech bonds has collapsed, investors are demanding higher interest rates, and major U.S. banks are reducing their positions. This is crucial—especially given significant financing needs on the horizon. At the same time, the promised AI returns are failing to materialize, as more affordable tools are hot on the heels of the leading systems. Historically, the bond market leads the stock market—especially at this level of risk. Consequently, the signals from the bond and stock markets diverge, as the attached chart shows.

Against this backdrop, renewed pressure on oil prices is a bad sign: Last week’s weak inflation report looked better because oil prices had fallen sharply in June; tensions in the Gulf over the past ten days mean that July will paint a different picture. Higher oil prices act like a tax on everyday life. This combination is bad for risk assets and could slow or even reverse interest rate cuts—a scenario in which central banks will ultimately have to pump fresh money into the system. This is precisely the environment in which $BTC (+1,67 %) and $GOLD shine: Both are underperforming this year, and both would have the most to gain if central banks shift to monetary easing.

You can invest in Bitcoin through the following platform: $BITC (+1,77 %)

The Geopolitical Risk Index has just risen sharply—a warning sign. The historical data (since 1985) is clear: the higher the geopolitical risk, the higher the inflation. In the worst-case scenario, we can expect inflation of 5.7 percent. Normally, in times of crisis like these, safe-haven assets such as $GOLD and $BTC (+1,67 %) rise significantly. But in 2026, things are different—both assets have significantly underperformed despite rising risks. For investors, this means that traditional crisis-hedging strategies are not currently working reliably.

$BITC (+1,77 %)