The military escalation between the USA, Israel and Iran is causing strong market movements worldwide. Investors are shifting out of cyclical sectors and into security, energy and defense.

_________________________

Bitcoin $BTC (-3,87 %) shows surprising stability

• 📈 In the meantime +8,1 %
• 💰 Just over 70,000 dollars
• Stabilization at around 69,000 dollars

Despite geopolitical risks, Bitcoin is apparently being used as a liquidity parking lot in the short term. At the same time, volatility remains high - further escalations could trigger new spikes.

_________________________

🛢 Oil prices up significantly

• Brent: + just under 6 %
• WTI: + a good 5 %
• In the meantime even +13 %

According to the report, the USA is currently no release from the strategic oil reserve. The market is still considered to be supplied, but the situation remains tense.

_________________________

🏦 Banks under pressure

The European banking index loses around 3,5 % - sharpest decline since April 2025.

Particularly affected:

• HSBC - $HSBA (-2,22 %)
• Barclays - $BARC (-3,86 %)
• Standard Chartered - $STAN (-2,53 %)
• Deutsche Bank - $DBK (-4,31 %)
• BNP Paribas - $BNP (-0,83 %)
• BBVA - $BBVA (-2,32 %)
• Commerzbank - $CBK (-3,43 %)

In the USA also weaker until the US opening:

• Bank of America - $BAC (-3,32 %)
• Citigroup - $C (-2,36 %)

Reason: Strong Middle East business of many institutions and general risk aversion of investors.

_________________________

✈️ Travel industry collapses

High oil prices and uncertainty weigh heavily on tourism stocks:

• TUI - $TUI1 (-1 %) (-11 %)
• Lufthansa - $LHA (-0,33 %) (-11 %)

Flights to the region are canceled, travel offers suspended. Investors fear rising costs and falling booking figures.

_________________________

💎 Luxury stocks clearly in the red

The European luxury index loses almost 4 %.

Strongly affected:

• Richemont - $CFR (+0,09 %)
• Swatch - $UHR (-1,21 %)
• LVMH - $MC (-1,96 %)
• Hermès - $RMS (-0,57 %)
• Kering - $KER (-1,22 %)
• Brunello Cucinelli - $BC (-1,85 %)
• Moncler - $MONC (+1,71 %)
• Ferragamo - $SFER (-1,58 %)

Background:

Luxury is heavily dependent on global travel. Capital flows out of cyclical stocks.

_________________________

🛡 Defense stocks as clear winners

Geopolitical tensions drive up defense stocks:

• BAE Systems - $BA. (+2,04 %)
• Lockheed Martin - $LMT (+2,21 %)
• RTX - $RTX (+2,29 %)
• Kratos - $KTOS (+4,89 %)
• Hensoldt - $HAG (+0,54 %)
• Leonardo - $LDO (+0,7 %)
• Renk - $R3NK (+3,22 %)
• Rheinmetall - $RHM (+1,19 %)

Partial price increases of 3-6 %.

The focus is particularly on missile defense systems and possible increases in defense budgets.

_________________________

🚢 Shipping companies benefit

Transport values increase due to detour (avoidance of Hormuz, Suez Canal & Bab al-Mandab):

• Maersk - $MAERSK A (+1,79 %)
• Hapag-Lloyd - $HLAG (+2,03 %)
• Torm - $TRMD A (-1,13 %)
• Frontline - $FRO (-0,03 %)
• Hoegh Autoliners $HAUTO (+3,07 %)

Reason: Shortage of transport capacity and speculation on rising freight rates.

_________________________

🥇 Gold in demand

• Gold price: +2,5 %

Profiteers in mining stocks:

• Evolution Mining - $EVN (-5,23 %)
• Northern Star - $NST (-6,45 %)

The sector has been showing relative strength for several days.

$4GLD (+1,32 %)
$GOLD
$GOLD (-0,15 %)

_________________________

📊 Market logic clearly recognizable

Winner:

🛡 Armaments

🚢 Shipping companies

🥇 Gold

₿ Bitcoin (short-term)

Losers:

🏦 Banks

✈️ Travel

💎 Luxury

_________________________

🔎 Conclusion

The market reaction follows the classic pattern of geopolitical crises:

• Risk is reduced
• Capital seeks security
• Energy prices rise
• Defense stocks benefit

The decisive factor remains whether the situation eases diplomatically - or escalates further.

_________________________

Source:

Reuters: Anleger greifen bei Bitcoin als "Fluchtvehikel" zu (Via TradingView)

Before March gets off to a turbulent start tomorrow due to the unrest in the Middle East (my gold will be happy!?), I am enjoying the fact that February just ended so green.

A whole 0.96%📈 positive return was achieved in February.

(According to getquin even 1.6%📈🧐)

_________________________

Winners and losers February 2026,

sorted by percentage return

Individual stocks:

$CVX (+0,08 %) + 7,5% 📈

$ONDS (+3,78 %) + 7,3% 📈

$PNG (-2,97 %) + 3,5% 📈

$RBRK (+1,66 %) - 1,5% 📉 (added 27.02.)

$LMND (+0,26 %) - 10,8% 📉 (added 24.02.)

$RKLB (+6,28 %) - 13,8% 📉

$SOFI (-1,42 %) - 22,1% 📉

$IREN (-2,59 %) - 26,4 % 📉

Derivatives:

$DE000PF5R6A4 (-2,1 %) + 47% 📈 (Has been running since 10.02.2026)

$DE000VH5Y352 (-2,68 %) - 27,4% 📉 (Has been running since 02.02.2026)

Crypto:

$BTC (-3,87 %) - 15,4% 📉

$ETH (-4,76 %) - 18,9% 📉

Precious metals:

$4GLD (+1,32 %) + 7,9% 📈

________________________

Since the beginning of the year

The year started with just under €15,000.

Annual target: €25,000.

Almost 28% of this has already been achieved. So I'm on the right track.

Positive return of + 7.86% 📈

_________________________

Distribution of assets

What does your February look like?

$BTC (-3,87 %) continues to slide. I do not see any trend for rising prices in the coming months. While gold $4GLD (+1,32 %) and silver $SLVR (+2,47 %) are in demand, Bitcoin cannot establish itself as a safe crisis currency but remains speculative.

Hello and best regards from Bavaria,

I have the iShars Physical Gold ETC in my portfolio $IGLN (+1,79 %) .

Custody account value approx. 12,500€, of which 4,500€ are price gains.

I took it at the time because it was the largest gold ETC at TradeRepublic.

After researching, I found out that this gold ETC is not tax-exempt. This means that if I were to sell it now, I would be subject to withholding tax, etc.

At the same time, I have just opened a custody account with JustTrade. Actually only to invest a very small part in Epi's (@Epi ) Wikifolio.

There I saw that the Xetra Gold $4GLD (+1,32 %) is available.

This is tax-free after a holding period of one year.

Now my question:

1. sell the existing iShares ETC and take the tax deduction in full and switch to the Xetra? Disadvantage here: The tax deduction of around €1000 is lost and can no longer "work" for me.

2. or simply keep the iShares ETC and only save in xetra Gold in future? Disadvantage here: If the gold price continues to rise, the price gain on the iShares ETC will also continue to rise. As a result, the withholding tax payable on a later sale will continue to rise.

What would you decide on, or your opinion?

Best regards

A few days before the end of January, I was still enjoying a 15% return - then it fell rapidly.

Nevertheless, I am satisfied.

Below are the portfolio values and their performance in January:

Precious metals

$4GLD (+1,32 %) ➕ 12,4 %

• Portfolio share: approx. 67 %

_________________________

Crypto assets

$BTC (-3,87 %) ➖ 11,9 %

• Portfolio share: approx. 7 %

$ETH (-4,76 %) ➖ 20,7 %

• Portfolio share: approx. 5 %

_________________________

Individual stocks

$IREN (-2,59 %) ➕ 24,6 %

• Portfolio share: approx. 2.3 %

$PNG (-2,97 %) ➕ 17,3 %

• Portfolio share: approx. 4.3 %

$CVX (+0,08 %) ➕ 12,3 %

• Depot share: approx. 0.9 %

$RKLB (+6,28 %) ➕ 4,3 %

• Depot share: approx. 5 %

$SOFI (-1,42 %) ➖ 17,8 %

• Deposit share: approx. 1.9 %

$HIMS (-1,15 %) ➖ 19,8 %

• Deposit share: approx. 1.3 %

WOW, a very good morning I would say 🌅

that's what I call a start to February. Makes me immediately happy when I see it 😇

all the price alerts have exploded and robbed me of my sleep

Let's see what the week has in store...

$BTC (-3,87 %)
$PHAG (+2,9 %)
$4GLD (+1,32 %)
$CSNDX (-0,61 %)
$ETH (-4,76 %)
$VUSA (-0,82 %)

In recent days, markets around the world have experienced strong fluctuations: price slumps in precious metals such as gold (-7.5%) and silver (-14%) led to panic-like sell-offs in equities, cryptocurrencies and derivatives - particularly in Asia and then globally.

At the same time, supervisory authorities such as BaFin recently expressed concerns about rising risks on the financial markets, citing excessive risk appetite, political uncertainty and euphoria surrounding certain sectors (such as AI).

And even if corporate balance sheets remain solid overall, many investors are currently more focused on geopolitical risks, interest rate and political signals than on fundamentals.

In short, we are not seeing a sudden global "economy Armageddon", but a classic market exaggeration and correction process triggered by technical factors, sentimental overreactions and political uncertainties.

Why it's crashing right now: causes in detail

Several simultaneous drivers are typical for market phases like this:

1. increase in risk and volatility

Investors flee risk assets as soon as nervousness dominates. Panic selling then intensifies the downward pressure.

2. geopolitics and uncertainties

Political news (tariffs, geopolitical tensions, central bank decisions) is currently having a disproportionate impact on the markets.

3. high expectations vs. reality

Many tech and AI stocks had previously risen sharply. As soon as earnings and valuation levels fall short of expectations, sentiment quickly changes. This is not a crash signal, but a valuation reset.

4. sentiment momentum

Market participants have learned to think in terms of trends. When the masses sell, this drives prices down further in the short term - regardless of whether the fundamentals are weak or not.

This is not an apocalyptic revelation, but simply market dynamics.

Corrections are not a bug, they are a feature

There is no straight line upwards on the stock market, and the fact that prices fall is not a technological defect - it is part of the system. Corrections and even crash-like movements are part of the normal functioning of capital markets.

Historically, the biggest gains for investors have often come not in calm periods, but after periods of high volatility. Investors who only invest when everything looks great often miss out on the return drivers of the next few years.

Why such days should be encouraging

1. buy the dip is not a meme, it is a statistic.

In the past, investors who bought at lower prices often profited more than average because the average price was lowered and future recoveries have a stronger impact on the portfolio.

2. emotions are not a good investment mechanism.

Panic causes investors to sell when others are buying. And in the long term, the best returns have been achieved by those who bought and held on the dip - not those who got out on every bad day.

3. time in the market beats timing the market.

No one can predict exactly how deep a dip will go or when it will end. But those who stay invested for the long term and buy on dips tend to see better returns than those who try to time the perfect entry. This is simply because you have more time in the market where the returns are generated.

What really counts now

✔ Long-term thinking over short-term fear

✔ Keep positions or even expand them at a favorable price

✔ Really use diversification, don't just preach it

✔ Reduce emotions, increase plans

Crash-like days always feel bad. But they are not a disaster - they are opportunities to achieve returns that you would otherwise have missed.

If you take a long-term view and stay disciplined, such days are the friends of your returns, not their enemies.

$BTC (-3,87 %)
$MSFT (+0,07 %)
$SAP (-0,31 %)
$IREN (-2,59 %)
$MSTR (-3,87 %)
$ETH (-4,76 %)

$NVDA (-0,51 %)
$CSU (+4,59 %)
$4GLD (+1,32 %)
$SSLN (+2,74 %)
#börse
#aktien
#crash
#geopolitik