The military escalation between the USA, Israel and Iran is causing strong market movements worldwide. Investors are shifting out of cyclical sectors and into security, energy and defense.

_________________________

Bitcoin $BTC (+1,18 %) shows surprising stability

• 📈 In the meantime +8,1 %
• 💰 Just over 70,000 dollars
• Stabilization at around 69,000 dollars

Despite geopolitical risks, Bitcoin is apparently being used as a liquidity parking lot in the short term. At the same time, volatility remains high - further escalations could trigger new spikes.

_________________________

🛢 Oil prices up significantly

• Brent: + just under 6 %
• WTI: + a good 5 %
• In the meantime even +13 %

According to the report, the USA is currently no release from the strategic oil reserve. The market is still considered to be supplied, but the situation remains tense.

_________________________

🏦 Banks under pressure

The European banking index loses around 3,5 % - sharpest decline since April 2025.

Particularly affected:

• HSBC - $HSBA (-0,23 %)
• Barclays - $BARC (+0,51 %)
• Standard Chartered - $STAN (-0,27 %)
• Deutsche Bank - $DBK (+0,9 %)
• BNP Paribas - $BNP (+0,21 %)
• BBVA - $BBVA (-0,4 %)
• Commerzbank - $CBK (+0,01 %)

In the USA also weaker until the US opening:

• Bank of America - $BAC (-1,07 %)
• Citigroup - $C (-0,46 %)

Reason: Strong Middle East business of many institutions and general risk aversion of investors.

_________________________

✈️ Travel industry collapses

High oil prices and uncertainty weigh heavily on tourism stocks:

• TUI - $TUI1 (-2,83 %) (-11 %)
• Lufthansa - $LHA (-0,66 %) (-11 %)

Flights to the region are canceled, travel offers suspended. Investors fear rising costs and falling booking figures.

_________________________

💎 Luxury stocks clearly in the red

The European luxury index loses almost 4 %.

Strongly affected:

• Richemont - $CFR (+0,55 %)
• Swatch - $UHR (+0,37 %)
• LVMH - $MC (+1,86 %)
• Hermès - $RMS (-0,35 %)
• Kering - $KER (+1,73 %)
• Brunello Cucinelli - $BC (-0,94 %)
• Moncler - $MONC (-0,28 %)
• Ferragamo - $SFER (-0,74 %)

Background:

Luxury is heavily dependent on global travel. Capital flows out of cyclical stocks.

_________________________

🛡 Defense stocks as clear winners

Geopolitical tensions drive up defense stocks:

• BAE Systems - $BA. (-3,11 %)
• Lockheed Martin - $LMT (-3,59 %)
• RTX - $RTX (-3,38 %)
• Kratos - $KTOS (-6,45 %)
• Hensoldt - $HAG (-5,71 %)
• Leonardo - $LDO (-2,81 %)
• Renk - $R3NK (-4,54 %)
• Rheinmetall - $RHM (-4,68 %)

Partial price increases of 3-6 %.

The focus is particularly on missile defense systems and possible increases in defense budgets.

_________________________

🚢 Shipping companies benefit

Transport values increase due to detour (avoidance of Hormuz, Suez Canal & Bab al-Mandab):

• Maersk - $MAERSK A (-1,39 %)
• Hapag-Lloyd - $HLAG (-2,41 %)
• Torm - $TRMD A (+1,73 %)
• Frontline - $FRO (+0,99 %)
• Hoegh Autoliners $HAUTO (+1,33 %)

Reason: Shortage of transport capacity and speculation on rising freight rates.

_________________________

🥇 Gold in demand

• Gold price: +2,5 %

Profiteers in mining stocks:

• Evolution Mining - $EVN (-1,6 %)
• Northern Star - $NST (-1,45 %)

The sector has been showing relative strength for several days.

$4GLD (+0,27 %)
$GOLD
$GOLD (-2,8 %)

_________________________

📊 Market logic clearly recognizable

Winner:

🛡 Armaments

🚢 Shipping companies

🥇 Gold

₿ Bitcoin (short-term)

Losers:

🏦 Banks

✈️ Travel

💎 Luxury

_________________________

🔎 Conclusion

The market reaction follows the classic pattern of geopolitical crises:

• Risk is reduced
• Capital seeks security
• Energy prices rise
• Defense stocks benefit

The decisive factor remains whether the situation eases diplomatically - or escalates further.

_________________________

Source:

Reuters: Anleger greifen bei Bitcoin als "Fluchtvehikel" zu (Via TradingView)

We all know that the arms hype has been going very well since the Ukraine attack. In my research I have seen that $BA. (-3,11 %) compared to $RHM (-4,68 %) has actually not gone so well.

$$BA. (-3,11 %) Sits on a very high cash flow and the order books are well filled, furthermore you have recurring revenue through maintenance contracts. What a very stable business.

They pay a small dividend of about 1.7% as the company is in the UK the withholding tax is a nice thing. They also have regular and strong buybacks.

I realize that armaments are not everyone's cup of tea, but they are an $BA. (-3,11 %) an established player that has lagged behind the competition and I would imagine that they still have some potential.

Oh and after the 20% in January there has now been a good correction.

What is your opinion?

This or something similar could be my personal headline for 02.01.2026.

In addition to receiving my letter of congratulations on passing my probationary period after changing jobs last summer, it was of course another savings plan day.

In addition to the investments worth the equivalent of €1,375 to be collected there every month (€25 in $ATAI (-2,93 %) has not yet gone through due to the relocation to the USA, so I'm curious to see whether the NASDAQ-listed securities are still eligible for the savings plan😅), a further €1,000 has found its way into the market and thus into my portfolio.

In this case, it was not a "quick 1-2 new positions between the holidays" action like a few days ago (the days were really crazy to say the least with the price movements of some stocks with rather thin volumes), but a targeted increase in some of my existing positions, which were of course already provided with a savings plan.

I have done the same thing from time to time in recent months with the previously smaller savings plan positions in my portfolio, and this time was no exception.

This time, I increased the positions in equal parts:

$BNTX (-0,55 %)

$ANET (+2,13 %)

$FTNT (+2,08 %)

$BA. (-3,11 %)

Overall, I am quite satisfied with my current portfolio structure, but I will sit down from time to time during the course of the year and review existing positions, check my investment theses and probably also simply take profits on stocks that are more "bets" than long-term investments for me ($BITF , $HIVE (-0,92 %) , $REKR (-1,33 %) , $FBIO and one or two in the rare earth/critical raw materials sector).

A few new positions may then be added, but the aim here is clearly to liquidate positions first (where appropriate) and only then to open further positions.

How are you doing? How did your first trading day of the year go? Do you also have one or more of the stocks mentioned in your portfolio? How do you feel about them?

What happens if you invest too little for years? There is a need to catch up.

And that is exactly what happened to many countries within NATO. When Russia's war of aggression made it clear that even the theoretical investment target for armaments of 2% was far too low, the countries were completely overwhelmed.

As a result, all companies only remotely involved in armaments went up: $RHM (-4,68 %)
$ONDS (+0,22 %)
$MILDEF (+6,16 %)
$AIR (-0,09 %)
$BA. (-3,11 %)
$HAG (-5,71 %)

But even before the Russian war, there was already a problem with security spending within the EU: "capital formation" spending, which primarily includes long-lived military expenditure, was around 20% within Europe for a long time. In the USA, which is regarded as a model pupil for security spending, this figure is 40%.

And this is where Mildef comes into play. A Scandinavian company that, in my eyes, still flies somewhat under the radar. Mildef produces IT hardware for the military and defense (which is part of the 20%). As the company itself describes its business model very well, here is the graphic from the investor presentation:

What is not shown is the fluctuation in demand, which is caused by being relatively at the beginning of the value chain:

This bullwhip effect can also be seen in many other sectors, especially in industry, where many value creation steps build on each other. We are currently at a peak in demand from the consumer side. This has already been priced into the stock market for many companies, but not yet to the same extent for Mildef. In addition, spending is set to rise from 1% of GDP to 5% in many countries. Of course, these tasks will also flow into the countries' infrastructure, but I think it will quickly become clear that there is a need to catch up AND that there is long-term sustainable demand.

Mildef: Small but mighty

Mildef occupies a small niche within the defense industry with its products. It is not worthwhile for many large corporations to enter niches, as the investments are greater than the revenue opportunities. In addition, Mildef has little competition from smaller companies. Why?

The industry is strictly controlled. Although anyone can take part in a military tender, there are special regulations that are difficult to fulfill without special expertise. There is no cheap competition from Asia, as suppliers from Europe are preferred for security products. This is the reason for EBIT margins of more than 10%.

Regional distribution of sales

Sales are generated primarily in the Nordic countries. However, a new acquisition will soon change this. More on this in a moment.

Growth targets

The management has ambitious growth targets. In recent years, these have been achieved or significantly exceeded. Average sales growth over the last three years has been over 40% per year. I also expect sales growth of more than 40 % YoY for the current financial year. This is due to the Roda acquisition. More on this in a moment.

The EBIT margin of over 15% has not yet been achieved. Mildef likes to calculate with highly adjusted figures. However, the deviations from reality are so great that I would rather regard the 15% as a long-term target. EBIT is not particularly stable overall, but this is justifiable in view of the growth ambitions. However, this makes it more difficult for the valuation.

Roda takeover

Roda will bring further significant growth in FY 2025. The business model is similar to that of Mildef. Since a large part of the sales for 2025 is already known, I have tried to estimate the total growth and arrive at around 57% growth with the current 9M figures, Q4 from 2025 and a quarter of Roda's annual sales. The calculation is highly simplified. Sales could grow much faster in the last quarter.

Financial impact of the Roda takeover

Although debt has doubled, at around 1× EBITDA it is completely 1× EBITDA, however, it is completely within reasonable limits. This is due to the fact that the takeover was partly financed with new shares. Shareholders were diluted by 18%. As an investor, you don't like to see that at first, but the takeover was strategically very important: Mildef was previously mainly active in Scandinavia. The Roda takeover gives the company better access to the rest of Europe.

Valuation

Valuing Mildef is not easy. This is not because future sales are difficult to estimate. Backlog and conservative assumptions make it easy to do.

The problem, however, is choosing a sensible multiple. Typically, you are looking for

• a constant, predictable key figure (such as EV/sales, P/E ratio, etc.)
• Companies from the same market
• Companies with similar growth

Due to the Roda acquisition and the generally strong growth the EBIT margin fluctuates strongly. I do not wish to use the adjusted management figures as they are adjusted accordingly.

There are also hardly any comparable companies. Mildef is active in a niche market. Although there are similar companies, they either lack growth or have lower margins. Both factors directly influence the multiple paid on the stock exchange.

In the end, I opted for a P/E valuation. However, this method has weaknesses, mainly because turnover is a very simple key figure.

In my model, I arrived at an expected return of 18.7 %. What is important here is that the growth assumptions for the future are significantly lower than those of the management.

I used EBIT as a second valuation approach. This resulted in a return of only 4.4 % per year. However, as already mentioned, EBIT is not stable and therefore probably not a suitable estimation parameter.

So which valuation makes sense?

I do not know. However, it is clear that the return will be very low or very high depending on the assumptions. Hence my question to the community: Which valuation method makes sense here? Perhaps you know an approach that fits better?

Thank you very much for reading. I wish you a Merry Christmas and a relaxing break from the stock market🎄

As always, I look forward to your feedback. Criticism is also welcome, after all, we all want to improve :)

p.s: I always find the overview of long posts here not so good, so I try to keep the introductions short. There is of course a lot more to say about Mildef. How do you see it? Do you prefer detailed posts or do you like it a bit clearer?

$BA. (-3,11 %)
https://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/welt/osteuropa/politik/ukraine-krieg-nato-waffen-vier-milliarden-zusage-100.html

My research revealed:

In order to get to know the companies behind this deal, I wanted to research this for myself, maybe it will be interesting for you too:

The companies involved in the construction of the Arrow 3 missile defense system are listed on the stock exchange. Here is the current financial data (as of December 3, 2025, 12:55 pm ET for US stock exchanges and 5:25 pm CET for European stock exchanges):

• Boeing (BA):
  $BA (-0,79 %) The US company involved in the development is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The current share price is 198.38 USD per share with a market capitalization of around 150.7 billion USD.
• Airbus (EADSY): $EADSY (-0,24 %) As a co-owner of MBDA, Airbus is listed on several European stock exchanges and also as an ADR (American Depositary Receipt) in the US. The US share price (EADSY) is USD 57.788. In Europe, the share price is approx. 49.50 EUR per share.
• BAE Systems (BA.L): $BA. (-3,11 %) Also a co-owner of MBDA, BAE Systems is listed on the London Stock Exchange. The share price in Germany (XETRA) is around EUR 18.57 per share.
• Leonardo (LDO.MI):
  $LDO (-2,81 %) The third co-owner of MBDA, Leonardo, is traded on the Borsa Italiana (Milan). The current share price is EUR 46.61 per share with a market capitalization of approx. EUR 26.9 billion.

The Arrow 3 missile defense system is mainly produced by Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and produced by Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI). Israel Aerospace Industries is a state-owned company and therefore not listed on the stock exchange.

The system was developed in collaboration with the US company Boeing and under the supervision of the Israeli Missile Defense Organization (IMDO) and the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA). Boeing is a listed company.

MBDA Germany is the prime contractor and partner of IAI for sales and maintenance in Europe, in particular for the purchase by Germany. MBDA is a private multinational company owned by Airbus (37.5%), BAE Systems (37.5%)
$BA. (-3,11 %) and Leonardo (25%), all of which are listed on the stock exchange. $BA. (-3,11 %)

Even in uncertain times like these, there are reliable stocks: with strong growth and stable dividends. Here are the best stocks from the Stoxx Global 1800.

Excluded were:

1. liabilities/total capital > 70%

2. negative EPS development in the last 5 years and those where analysts see a negative development in the next few years

3. KCV > 20

4. p/e/earnings growth > 5

5. companies that have canceled or cut dividends in the last 25 years

I'll name a few of the remaining companies here and maybe there are some that you don't know yet. Of course, these include companies such as Caterpillar, Chevron, Henkel, Munich Re, Merck and Union Pacific. They are well known. The following stocks are stable, established companies, so please don't expect any tenbagger opportunities in the next 10 months ;)

Armaments:

BAE Systems $BA. (-3,11 %)

If Europe wants to build a missile defense shield, there is no way around BAE Systems: the British armaments group was formed 26 years ago from the merger of British Aerospace and telecommunications supplier Marconi. BAE is building the Eurofighter Typhoon fighter aircraft with Airbus, and the company is also developing a new nuclear submarine for the Royal Navy. Since Russia's attack on Ukraine, the British company's order backlog has been growing and CEO Woodburn has raised the profit outlook for this year.

General Dynamics $GD (-1,67 %)

The German Armed Forces are receiving new ambulances: 80 so-called Eagle V 6x6s from the US armaments company General Dynamics. However, the Virginia-based company is best known for its Fighting Falcon F-16 fighter aircraft, which was launched in 1978 and is one of the most widely used military jets in the world. However, the fact that General Dynamics has recently surprised with positive sales and profit figures is due to its submarine division: the US Department of Defense significantly increased an existing order.

Construction

Ackermans & van Haaren $ACKB (+0,22 %)

The deepening of the Elbe near Hamburg is controversial, but the marine technology company Deme, the highest-revenue subsidiary of the Belgian conglomerate Ackermans & van Haaren, continues to dig. Deme is also involved in the construction of offshore wind farms and gas pipelines. Ackermans & van Haaren is also active in banking and the energy sector. The company's coffers are well filled and the profit prospects are intact.

Assa Abloy $ASSA B (+0,6 %)

If you have never heard of Assa Abloy, you should look out for the manufacturer of security doors. It often bears the name of the Swedish company, which claims to be the world market leader for security and access systems. Assa Abloy regularly strengthens its position with acquisitions - twelve in the past few years. The Group can afford this, as can the rising dividend.

Idex $IEX (-1,22 %)

Without water pumps from Godiva, many firefighters would quickly be left high and dry. The pumps from the US company Idex are installed in fire engines worldwide, but also in aircraft, for example. With the purchase of Micro-Lam, Idex is strengthening its optical systems division in order to win the defense industry as a customer. The share has recently been under pressure.

Pharmaceuticals

Novartis $NOVN (-2,94 %)

At the beginning of September, things went from strength to strength at the Swiss pharmaceutical group: first the healthcare giant from Basel secured the worldwide license for a new Parkinson's drug, then access to several new cardiovascular drugs from China. Both therapies have the potential to generate billions in sales in the near future. Novartis can also be satisfied with its own developments: according to initial studies, the Swiss company is on the trail of an active ingredient that should help against Sjögren's syndrome, a common rheumatic disease. But Novartis is also under the threat of US tariffs. Novartis generates around 40 percent of its total sales, approximately 17 billion euros, in the USA. To avoid the additional burden, the company is investing in seven new production facilities there.

Industry

Kurita Water $6370 (+0,31 %)

The fact that astronauts on the ISS space station have clean water is mainly thanks to the Japanese company Kurita Water. The company specializes in water treatment, develops systems and chemicals for this purpose and uses them to build self-sufficient water systems - a business with good prospects. Kurita Water also scores with stable finances and a rising dividend.

SGH $SGH (-1,2 %)

Under the umbrella of the Australian conglomerate SGH (formerly Seven Group Holdings), there is a strange mix: on the one hand, SGH sells construction machinery, building materials and energy. On the other hand, the Chairman of the Supervisory Board, Kerry Stokes, is something of a second Rupert Murdoch thanks to his shares in the media group Seven West Media. SGH has doubled both its profit and turnover since 2020.

Spirax $SPX (+0,29 %)

The highly upgraded steam systems from Spirax (formerly Spirax-Sarco) are used in almost all industries and sectors. However, the most promising segment is "electrical heating solutions". Here, Spirax is developing CO2-free systems for gas-powered steam power plants, for example. Spurred on by the business prospects, the share price jumped - but the price is still below the value targeted by analysts.

Source: Capital Magazine

Probably not quite, but I still see $CLAV (-1,2 %) nevertheless great opportunities and yesterday I took my first position in the Swedish penny stock.

What is the idea behind investing in this still relatively unknown European cyber security company?

It's not that I want to satisfy my fanbase here on GQ who are panting for new top picks. 😂😂

First and foremost, I am looking for stocks for myself and my portfolio that have not yet been discovered by the broad market and therefore have the potential to multiply. Since I have also noticed from the reactions and many new follower requests that there is interest in my posts from a wide variety of investor types and that I enjoy exchanging ideas with you here, I share my ideas. But they are not investment recommendations and you make your own decisions. Just to say that again 😉😎

Now back to $CLAV (-1,2 %) . My basic idea is that European authorities and defense companies do not want to rely on American cyber security companies on a large scale and become dependent on them. So they will look for companies that are based here in Europe and meet European security requirements in terms of Satan management, etc. etc. And if you then do some research, you come across the still small $CLAV (-1,2 %) .

$CLAV (-1,2 %) more than doubled its order intake in the first half of the year compared to the first half of 2008. The first order from a European law enforcement agency was landed. And the first key customer in the defense sector $BA. (-3,11 %) was landed and I am convinced that more will follow.

Most recently, a cooperation was agreed with $NXPI (+0,67 %) to jointly secure security solutions for the ever-increasing networking in the automotive industry.

So, let's start with the reasons why I got in with a first tranche. The price from $CLAV (-1,2 %) here on GQ is not always up-to-date, which is due to the fact that the share is only traded in Frankfurt and Stockholm.

What do I think of this stock? Well, I always assume that such investments have a chance of at least doubling. That's what I see here over the next 6 months. My first medium-term target price is €2.

I wanted to give you a little update on my current defense portfolio and the planned changes.

📍Status Quo:

📍Capability areas and benefits for the portfolio:

Air & missile defense

$RTX (-3,38 %) ,$LMT (-3,59 %)

Patriot, PAC-3, THAAD - core systems for the protection of cities, bases and fleets

Combat aircraft & air dominance

$LMT (-3,59 %) , $BA. (-3,11 %)

F-35 program (LMT), Eurofighter Typhoon, future Tempest/FCAS

Maritime strike capability

$HII (-3,22 %) , $GD (-1,67 %) , $BA. (-3,11 %)

Nuclear submarines (Virginia, Astute), Type-26 frigates, combat systems

Sensors & electronic reconnaissance

$HAG (-5,71 %) , $QQ. (+0,57 %) , $CHRT (-2,98 %) , $BA. (-3,11 %)

AESA radars, ESM/ECM, BAE Raven ES-05 radar

Autonomous systems & drones

Almost all companies play me here. $KTOS (-6,45 %) as the only drone pure play.

Unmanned jets (XQ-58) and tactical UAS - rapidly growing budget item

Cyber / AI & data fusion

$PLTR (+0,13 %) ,$CACI (-2,2 %)

AI-supported command and control systems (PLTR Gotham/Apollo) and US government IT services

Ground-based large-scale systems

$GD (-1,67 %) ,$NOC (-2,68 %) , $BA. (-3,11 %)

Abrams modernizations, artillery rockets and ground-based sensors, CV90-IFV, M109 howitzers

Multidomain space flight

$NOC (-2,68 %)

US nuclear deterrence - from delivery systems to warning and command and control networks

💰Realized partial sales at $HAG and $PLTR

I had already reduced $HAG and $PLTR by 50% each this year with large gains (+651% and +346%):

The valuations of both companies are currently extremely sporty.

PLTR

Trailing P/E ratio (TTM): 580 - 590x

Forward P/E ratio: ~240x

Price-to-sales: >100x

HAG

Trailing P/E ratio (TTM): 120 - 130x

Forward P/E ratio: ~80x

Price-to-sales: >5x

I will nevertheless remain invested in both positions for the time being. Mainly because I currently see no significant change in the underlying investment story.

Position sizes are relativized by new planned purchases and the concentration risk falls from 34% → 25% of the sleeve.

📊Planned adjustments:

❓Why these changes?

New position$AVAV (-3,03 %)
(drones/loitering ammunition):

Covers the fastest growing budget line (attritable UAS), which was previously barely represented.

New position $RHM (-4,68 %)
(Ammunition & Platforms)

Adds the "155 mm grenades" bottleneck and European land systems to the portfolio; beneficiary of EU armament.

Increase $RTX (-3,38 %)

Most favorable US prime (forward P/E ≈ 25), high visibility in air/missile defense systems.

Top-up $GD (-1,67 %)

Diversified towards submarines, ground vehicles and ammunition; reliable free cash flow.

📉Planned, staggered entries:

$AVAV: $220 - $185

$RHM: €1550 - €1450

$RTX: $125 - $120

$GD: $285 - $270

🤔 What does your portfolio look like?

Which defense stocks do you hold and why?