Subscribe to the podcast so that there will soon be peace.

00:00:00 Oil and government bonds

00:37:50 Liberty Energy $LBYE

00:48:30 Cheniere Energy $LNG (-0,41 %)

00:56:35 Kinder Morgan $KMI (+0,48 %)

01:00:52 Iran war losers / Buy The Dip

01:19:20 Bitcoin

Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/7jouQHLiEbfg5QGyZOdZWJ?si=Du2whTFIR7WOE8AFD1RICA

YouTube

https://youtu.be/XM6znPkni6I

Apple Podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/138-irankriegsgewinner-und-verlierer-buy-the-dip-%C3%B6l/id1695869891?i=1000760127407

$TKA (+0,37 %)
$SZG (-2,79 %)
$SZGPY (+0 %)
$HLAG (-2,41 %)
$VNA (+0,15 %)
$CCL (+0,52 %)
$AAL (+2,58 %)
$SMSD (+0,56 %)
$005930
$CONTININS
$TUI1 (-2,83 %)
$IFX (+2,45 %)
$MC (+1,86 %)
$BA (-0,79 %)
$2330
$CCO (-1,29 %)

The military escalation between the USA, Israel and Iran is causing strong market movements worldwide. Investors are shifting out of cyclical sectors and into security, energy and defense.

_________________________

Bitcoin $BTC (+0,72 %) shows surprising stability

• 📈 In the meantime +8,1 %
• 💰 Just over 70,000 dollars
• Stabilization at around 69,000 dollars

Despite geopolitical risks, Bitcoin is apparently being used as a liquidity parking lot in the short term. At the same time, volatility remains high - further escalations could trigger new spikes.

_________________________

🛢 Oil prices up significantly

• Brent: + just under 6 %
• WTI: + a good 5 %
• In the meantime even +13 %

According to the report, the USA is currently no release from the strategic oil reserve. The market is still considered to be supplied, but the situation remains tense.

_________________________

🏦 Banks under pressure

The European banking index loses around 3,5 % - sharpest decline since April 2025.

Particularly affected:

• HSBC - $HSBA (-0,23 %)
• Barclays - $BARC (+0,51 %)
• Standard Chartered - $STAN (-0,27 %)
• Deutsche Bank - $DBK (+0,9 %)
• BNP Paribas - $BNP (+0,21 %)
• BBVA - $BBVA (-0,4 %)
• Commerzbank - $CBK (+0,01 %)

In the USA also weaker until the US opening:

• Bank of America - $BAC (-1,07 %)
• Citigroup - $C (-0,46 %)

Reason: Strong Middle East business of many institutions and general risk aversion of investors.

_________________________

✈️ Travel industry collapses

High oil prices and uncertainty weigh heavily on tourism stocks:

• TUI - $TUI1 (-2,83 %) (-11 %)
• Lufthansa - $LHA (-0,66 %) (-11 %)

Flights to the region are canceled, travel offers suspended. Investors fear rising costs and falling booking figures.

_________________________

💎 Luxury stocks clearly in the red

The European luxury index loses almost 4 %.

Strongly affected:

• Richemont - $CFR (+0,55 %)
• Swatch - $UHR (+0,37 %)
• LVMH - $MC (+1,86 %)
• Hermès - $RMS (-0,35 %)
• Kering - $KER (+1,73 %)
• Brunello Cucinelli - $BC (-0,94 %)
• Moncler - $MONC (-0,28 %)
• Ferragamo - $SFER (-0,74 %)

Background:

Luxury is heavily dependent on global travel. Capital flows out of cyclical stocks.

_________________________

🛡 Defense stocks as clear winners

Geopolitical tensions drive up defense stocks:

• BAE Systems - $BA. (-3,11 %)
• Lockheed Martin - $LMT (-3,59 %)
• RTX - $RTX (-3,38 %)
• Kratos - $KTOS (-6,45 %)
• Hensoldt - $HAG (-5,71 %)
• Leonardo - $LDO (-2,81 %)
• Renk - $R3NK (-4,54 %)
• Rheinmetall - $RHM (-4,68 %)

Partial price increases of 3-6 %.

The focus is particularly on missile defense systems and possible increases in defense budgets.

_________________________

🚢 Shipping companies benefit

Transport values increase due to detour (avoidance of Hormuz, Suez Canal & Bab al-Mandab):

• Maersk - $MAERSK A (-1,39 %)
• Hapag-Lloyd - $HLAG (-2,41 %)
• Torm - $TRMD A (+1,73 %)
• Frontline - $FRO (+0,99 %)
• Hoegh Autoliners $HAUTO (+1,33 %)

Reason: Shortage of transport capacity and speculation on rising freight rates.

_________________________

🥇 Gold in demand

• Gold price: +2,5 %

Profiteers in mining stocks:

• Evolution Mining - $EVN (-1,6 %)
• Northern Star - $NST (-1,45 %)

The sector has been showing relative strength for several days.

$4GLD (+0,27 %)
$GOLD
$GOLD (-2,8 %)

_________________________

📊 Market logic clearly recognizable

Winner:

🛡 Armaments

🚢 Shipping companies

🥇 Gold

₿ Bitcoin (short-term)

Losers:

🏦 Banks

✈️ Travel

💎 Luxury

_________________________

🔎 Conclusion

The market reaction follows the classic pattern of geopolitical crises:

• Risk is reduced
• Capital seeks security
• Energy prices rise
• Defense stocks benefit

The decisive factor remains whether the situation eases diplomatically - or escalates further.

_________________________

Source:

Reuters: Anleger greifen bei Bitcoin als "Fluchtvehikel" zu (Via TradingView)

$HLAG (-2,41 %)
$ZIM (-1,01 %)

Hamburg - A new giant is emerging on the world's oceans. Germany's largest container shipping company Hapag-Lloyd is taking over its Israeli rival ZIM. The Hamburg-based group is putting around 3.5 billion euros on the table for the deal. This was officially announced by the company on Monday. Hapag-Lloyd is paying 35 dollars per share. The takeover will be financed entirely in cash, not via a share swap. For Hapag-Lloyd it is one of the largest acquisitions in the company's history.

A spirit of optimism for the shipping companies

During the corona years, freight rates exploded and shipping companies earned billions. Then came the crash: overcapacity, falling prices, geopolitical tensions. Many companies had to reposition themselves. Now the next phase is beginning - the big players are securing market shares and expanding their networks. ZIM, based in the Mediterranean port of Haifa, is currently the ninth largest container shipping company in the world. The company operates 145 ships, including 130 container ships and 15 vehicle carriers. Hapag-Lloyd is currently in fifth place in the global rankings. With the takeover, the Group intends not only to defend this position, but also to strategically expand it.

Together over 400 ships

Together, the two companies would have more than 400 ships. According to analysts' estimates, Hapag-Lloyd's global market share would rise from around 7 percent to just under 9 percent. This would bring the Hamburg-based group closer to its Chinese rival Cosco and consolidate its role as one of the largest players in the global container business.

Hapag-Lloyd is merging its own subsidiary in Israel with ZIM. The billion-euro purchase will be financed partly from the company's own funds and partly through loans of up to around 2.1 billion euros. The closing of the transaction is still subject to the approval of the State of Israel. Hapag-Lloyd expects the deal to be completed by the end of 2026. According to Israeli media, parts of the workforce at the ZIM headquarters in Haifa reacted to the takeover with a strike. The works council reportedly felt ignored.

Found at Bild

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$AMAT (+2,71 %)
$NU (+0,08 %)
$ALV (+0,14 %)
$SREN (-0,96 %)
$BAVA (+0,48 %)

>> Like, if you want a list like this every week.

MondayAugust 18, 2025:

- 08:00: Germany: Building permits (June) - indicator for construction activity.

- 11:00: Eurozone: Trade Balance (June) - Impact on EUR.

- 12:00: Germany: Bundesbank Monthly Report (August) - Monetary policy assessments.

- 16:00: USA: NAHB Housing Market Index (August) - leading indicator for the real estate sector.

- Corporate figures:

- Australia: BHP Group, annual figures (approx. 22:00).

- USA: Palo Alto Networks, Q4 figures (approx. 22:00).

TuesdayAugust 19, 2025:

- 08:00: Germany: Manufacturing order backlog/reach (June) - industrial activity.

- 10:00: Eurozone: ECB Current Account (June) - impact on EUR.

- 14:30: USA: Building Permits and Housing Starts (July) - housing market and economic sentiment.

- Corporate figures:

- Germany: Ceconomy, Hannover Re, K+S (approx. 07:00-08:00).

- USA: Home Depot, Q2 figures (approx. 12:00).

WednesdayAugust 20, 2025:

- 01:50: Japan: Trade Balance (July) - impact on JPY.

- 08:00: Germany: Producer prices (July) - inflationary pressure.

- 08:00: UK: Consumer prices (July) - signal for BoE policy.

- 16:30: USA: Crude Oil Inventories (week) - impact on oil prices.

- 20:00: USA: FOMC meeting minutes (July 29/30) - Fed interest rate policy.

- Corporate figures:

- Germany: Brenntag, E.ON, Porsche Automobil Holding (approx. 07:00-08:00).

ThursdayAugust 21, 2025:

- 09:15: France: Manufacturing/Services PMI (August, preliminary) - economic activity.

- 09:30: Germany: PMI Manufacturing/Services (August, preliminary) - Economic activity.

- 10:00: Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing/Services (August, preliminary) - Economic activity.

- 10:30: UK: PMI Manufacturing/Services (August, preliminary) - Economic Activity.

- 14:30: USA: Initial Jobless Claims (week) - Labor Market Health.

- 14:30: USA: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (August) - Regional Economic Indicator.

- 16:00: USA: Existing Home Sales (July) - Real Estate Market.

- 16:00: Eurozone: Consumer Confidence (August, preliminary) - Consumer Sentiment.

- Corporate figures:

- Germany: Hapag-Lloyd, LANXESS, HHLA (approx. 07:00-08:00).

- UK: Aviva, H1 figures (approx. 08:00).

- USA: Walmart, Q2 figures (approx. 13:00); Intuit, Q4 figures (approx. 22:00).

FridayAugust 22, 2025:

- 02:30: Japan: Jibun Bank PMI Manufacturing/Services (August, preliminary) - economic activity.

- 08:00: Germany: GDP (Q2, 2nd release) - economic activity.

- 08:00: UK: Retail Sales (July) - Consumer Behavior.

- 16:00-18:00 (expected): USA: Fed Chair Powell, speech at Jackson Hole - monetary policy.

- Corporate figures:

- Finland: Fortum, Q2 figures (approx. 08:00).

- Germany: H&R, mobilezone (approx. 07:00-08:00).

#FinX
$BHP (-0,31 %)
$HD (-1,5 %)
$WMT (-1,53 %)
$HLAG (-2,41 %)
$PAH3 (-1,51 %)
$FORTUM (-0,27 %)
$FOJCY
$LXS (-0,47 %)
$AV. (+0,5 %)

$SZG (-2,79 %)
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$HLAG (-2,41 %)
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$BIRK (-3,45 %)
$9618 (+0,73 %)
$DE (-5,11 %)
$FR (+1,33 %)
$NU (+0,08 %)

First the new transaction.

$PEP (-0,35 %) 2 further shares.

$COLO B (+1,25 %) increased by 4 shares and also $KNIN (-3,29 %) into the portfolio. In return $HLAG (-2,41 %) out soon.

On the actual topic: After I reached my first $SOFI (+0,13 %) my first 100% + share, the first 200% share was also reached today with Sofi🎉. Robinhood was close to the 200%, but didn't crack it. Considering that the euro/US dollar exchange rate is now clearly somewhere else, it's considerable either way.

Twelve US states file lawsuits against Trump's tariff policy + Hapag-Lloyd registers cancellations between China and the US + Tonner Drones is pleased to announce a new patent in the US + Aurubis defies Exane downgrade thanks to economic hopes

Twelve US states file lawsuits against Trump's tariff policy

• A dozen US states have filed a lawsuit against President Donald Trump's "unlawful" tariffs at the Court of International Trade in New York.
• With his arbitrarily levied duties, the president has "overturned the constitutional order and plunged the American economy into chaos", according to the lawsuit.
• According to the US Constitution, the power to levy taxes, tariffs and duties lies with Congress, not the President, the plaintiffs argue.
• National trade policy should not depend on his whims.
• The Democratic states of Oregon, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York and Vermont and the Republican states of Arizona and Nevada have sued.
• Since the tariffs are illegal, the court should overrule them, they demand according to the lawsuit...
• https://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2025-04/65194874-zwoelf-us-bundesstaaten-klagen-gegen-trumps-zollpolitik-016.htm

Hapag-Lloyd $HLAG (-2,41 %)registers cancelations between China and the USA

• Germany's largest container shipping company Hapag-Lloyd is struggling in the trade dispute between the USA and the People's Republic of China.
• Around 30 percent of bookings from China to the USA have been canceled, a spokesman said on Wednesday.
• At the same time, the shipping company is registering "massive growth" in demand from Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam...
• https://www.onvista.de/news/2025/04-23-hapag-lloyd-registriert-stornierungen-zwischen-china-und-den-usa-0-20-26381572

Tonner Drones $ALDR (+0,31 %)announces that its patent for the inhibitor has been granted in the USA

• Tonner Drones owns the technology for an anti-recoil activation mechanism. The company now holds patents in Australia, the United Kingdom, Europe (including Germany) and the United States of America.
• Tonner Drones is actively seeking IP agencies to commercialize its patents through collaboration or sale of the technology.
• Tonner Drones itself has no ambitions to further develop the product, but sees great value in the patents given the new dynamics in Europe regarding defense spending.

Aurubis $NDA (-0,21 %)defies Exane downgrade thanks to economic hopes

• Aurubis shares defied a skeptical analyst commentary from Exane BNP Paribas on Wednesday with a tailwind from economic hopes.
• The copper company's shares had risen by 1.8 percent to 77.20 euros by midday, slightly outperforming the firm MDax.
• The share price benefited from a continued recovery in the price of copper.
• The industrial metal was in demand as economic concerns eased after the US government held out the prospect of some de-escalation in the tariff dispute with China.
• However, Exane-BNP analyst Alan Spence had lowered the price target from 71 to 60 euros, which is more than a fifth below the current price.
• He has accordingly downgraded Aurubis shares to "underperform".
• With a price target of 58 euros, only one analyst, the private bank Hauck & Aufhäuser, is currently more cautiously positioned.
• At the end of March, the Aurubis share price had risen to around 96 euros, its highest level for around two years.
• However, the international trade dispute triggered by the USA then dragged the shares down to just over 71 euros within a few days.
• Economic concerns dampened the expectations of many investors with regard to demand for commodities such as copper and other industrial metals

Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

• ex-dividend of individual stocks
• LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton EUR 7.50
• ING Group EUR 0.71
• Christian Dior EUR 7.50

• Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia
• 07:00 Hyundai quarterly figures sales 1Q
• 07:30 LG Electronics quarterly figures
• 12:00 Pepsico | Comcast | Dow quarterly figures
• 12:30 Merck & Co | Southwest Airlines | Valero Energy | Hasbro quarterly figures
• 12:55 Procter & Gamble quarterly figures
• 13:00 American Airlines | Bristol Myers Squibb Quarterly Results
• 14:00 Delivery Hero Earnings Call
• 15:00 Pfizer | Boeing AGM
• 22:00 Intel | Weyerhaeuser quarterly figures
• 22:05 Alphabet | Verisign quarterly figures
• 22:30 T-Mobile US quarterly figures

• Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe
• 07:00 Kühne & Nagel | Roche | Nokia | BNP Paribas | STMicroelectronic | Vossloh
• 07:00 Renault quarterly figures | Nestle 1Q sales
• 07:30 Air Liquide | Delivery Hero | Sanofi | Orange | KPN quarterly figures
• 07:45 Eni SpA quarterly figures
• 08:00 Unilever Trading Statement 1Q | Relx AGM and Trading Update 1Q
• 10:00 Schaeffle AGM
• 10:30 Nestle Analyst Conference
• 14:00 Delivery Hero Earnings Call
• 14:30 Danone AGM
• 17:45 Vinci quarterly figures | Michelin | Carrefour 1Q sales
• 18:05 Saint-Gobain 1Q sales

• Economic data

10:00 DE: Ifo Business Climate Index April PROGNOSE: 85.1 PREVIOUS: 86.7 Situation assessment PROGNOSE: 85.7 PREVIOUS: 85.7 Business expectations PROGNOSE: 84.5 PREVIOUS: 87.7

12:00 DE: Bundesbank monthly report

14:00 US: ECB Governing Council member Nagel, press breakfast at IMF Spring Meetings

14:30 US: Durable Goods Orders March FORECAST: +1.6% yoy previous: +1.0% yoy | Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) March

14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) FORECAST: 220,000 Previous: 214,000

15:00 BE: Business Climate Index April FORECAST: n/a previous: -15.1

16:00 US: NAR, Existing Home Sales March FORECAST: -3.8% yoy previous: +2.0% yoy

18:30 US: IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings, G-20 press conference

No time specified:

- BE: EU Commission President Von der Leyen, meeting with UK Prime Minister Starmer

- US: US President Trump, meeting with Norway's Prime Minister Store