Hapag Lloyd now in the portfolio and hopefully it will fall again a bit to buy more (complete the position).

I started to restructure my portfolio at the beginning of the year.

Out went a few underperformers and a partial sale (33%) of Siemens Energy to take some profits.

Now there is still a partial sale of $VUL (-1,96 %) as this company currently accounts for 16% of my portfolio and is a very risky bet.

In future, no single stock should account for more than 10%.

My goal for 2025 is to beat the S&P500 again.

Sell:

$LITU (+0,81 %) ( - 260€ )

$SBX (-1,83 %) ( -330€ )

$NANO (-3,01 %) ( -1732€ )

$ENR (-4,27 %) ( +1774€ )

Purchase:

$ASML (-0,72 %) ( 5x )

$NU (-11,11 %) ( 100x )

$HLAG (-0,6 %) ( 2x)

Analyst updates, 04.12.

⬆️⬆️⬆️

- BARCLAYS raises the price target for SIEMENS from EUR 125 to EUR 130. Underweight. $SIE (-0,45 %)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for SIEMENS ENERGY from EUR 35 to EUR 36. Equal-Weight. $ENR (-4,27 %)

- JEFFERIES raises the target price for ADYEN from EUR 1695 to EUR 1797. Buy. $ADYEN (-0,84 %)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for SALESFORCE from USD 340 to USD 380. Overweight. $CRM (-2,41 %)

- HSBC raises the target price for ZALANDO from EUR 37 to EUR 40. Buy. $ZAL (-1,25 %)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for RHEINMETALL from EUR 680 to EUR 800. Overweight. $RHM (-1,89 %)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the target price for COCA-COLA HBC from GBP 31.50 to GBP 32. Buy. $CCH (+0,93 %)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for KNORR-BREMSE from EUR 55 to EUR 60. Underweight. $KBX (+0,71 %)

- BARCLAYS raises the price target for ABB from CHF 40 to CHF 42. Underweight. $ABBNY (-0,56 %)

- BARCLAYS raises the price target for ALSTOM from EUR 8 to EUR 9. Underweight. $ALO (-2,19 %)

- HSBC upgrades MERCK & CO to Buy. Target price USD 130. $MRK (+2,28 %)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for DSV from DKK 1685 to DKK 1800. Overweight. $DSV (-1,62 %)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for LUFTHANSA from EUR 4.80 to EUR 5.50. Underweig$LHA (-0,44 %)

- UBS raises the target price for AROUNDTOWN from EUR 2 to EUR 3.30. Neutral. $AT1 (+0,28 %)

⬇️⬇️⬇️

- JPMORGAN lowers the target price for DHL GROUP from EUR 47 to EUR 42.50. Overweight. $DHL (+0,55 %)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the target price for UNITED INTERNET from EUR 38.50 to EUR 37.30. Buy. $UTDI (+0,66 %)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the target price for 1&1 from EUR 23.50 to EUR 19.10. Buy. $1U1 (+1,37 %)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the target price for KWS SAAT from EUR 89 to EUR 88. Buy. $KWS (+1,18 %)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH downgrades HEINEKEN from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 95 to EUR 76. $HEIA (+0,74 %)

- EXANE BNP lowers the price target for SCHOTT PHARMA from EUR 36 to EUR 28. Neutral. $1SXP (+1,99 %)

- BARCLAYS downgrades SIGNIFY to Underweight. Target price EUR 18. $LIGHT (+0,14 %)

- CFRA downgrades BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB to Hold. Target price USD 60. $BMY (+0,76 %)

- MORGAN STANLEY downgrades MOLLER-MAERSK to Underweight. Target price DKK 12200. $AMKBY (-1,51 %)

- BARCLAYS downgrades ANDRITZ to Underweight. Target price EUR 40. $ANDR (-1,04 %)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for HAPAG-LLOYD from EUR 85 to EUR 80. Underweight. $HLAG (-0,6 %)

Analyst updates, 15.11. 👇🏼

⬆️⬆️⬆️

- JEFFERIES raises the price target for ASML from EUR 760 to EUR 840. Buy. $ASML (-0,72 %)

- RBC raises the price target for TESLA from USD 249 to USD 313. Outperform. $TSLA (-4,32 %)

- JPMORGAN raises the price target for WALT DISNEY from USD 125 to USD 128. Overweight. $DIS (-1,33 %)

- JPMORGAN raises the price target for SIEMENS from EUR 215 to EUR 230. Overweight. $SIE (-0,45 %)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for SIEMENS ENERGY from EUR 21 to EUR 35. Equal-Weight. $ENR (-4,27 %)

- LBBW raises the target price for EON from EUR 13.80 to EUR 13.90. Buy. $EOAN (+0,41 %)

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB raises the target price for ADESSO from EUR 80 to EUR 85. Hold. $ADN1 (-0,77 %)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the target price for BURBERRY from GBP 7.40 to GBP 8.60. Hold. $BRBY (-4,28 %)

- BERENBERG raises the price target for TALANX from EUR 76.20 to EUR 91.10. Buy. $TLX (-0,72 %)

- BERENBERG raises the price target for HAPAG-LLOYD from EUR 163 to EUR 169. Hold. $HLAG (-0,6 %)

⬇️⬇️⬇️

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for BAYER from EUR 34 to EUR 25. Neutral. $BAYN (+1,43 %)

- SANTANDER downgrades SHELL from Neutral to Outperform and lowers target price from GBP 30.50 to GBP 30. $SHEL (-1,69 %)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for SECUNET from EUR 216 to EUR 210. Buy. $YSN (-1,34 %)

- METZLER lowers the price target for SIXT-STÄMME from EUR 105 to EUR 95. Buy. $SIX2 (-0,48 %)

- ODDO BHF lowers the target price for MERCK KGAA from EUR 187 to EUR 176. Outperform. $MRK (+2,28 %)

- METZLER lowers the price target for SMA SOLAR from EUR 20 to EUR 16. Hold. $S92 (-2,27 %)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for GRENKE from EUR 28 to EUR 24. Buy. $GLJ (+0,35 %)

- BERENBERG lowers the target price for K+S from EUR 15.70 to EUR 14.70. Buy. $SDF (+2,25 %)

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for AUMANN from EUR 17 to EUR 14.50. Hold. $AAG (+0 %)

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for DERMAPHARM from EUR 58 to EUR 50. Buy. $DMP (-1,03 %)

- BARCLAYS lowers the price target for SYMRISE from EUR 123 to EUR 115. Equal-Weight. $SY1 (+0,2 %)

Hapag llyod Q3 2024 $HLAG (-0,6 %)

Financial performance:

• Revenue: Remained stable at USD 15.3 billion for the first nine months of 2024, in line with the previous year.
• EBITDA: Decrease in EBITDA to USD 3.6 billion compared to USD 4.5 billion in the previous year.
• Net profit: Generated a net profit of USD 1.8 billion for the first nine months of 2024.

Balance sheet overview:

• Shareholders' equity: Remained unchanged from the end of fiscal 2023 at USD 20.9 billion as of September 30, 2024.
• Net liquidity: Significantly decreased to USD 0.8 billion from USD 2.9 billion at year-end 2023.
• Liquidity reserve: Remained stable at USD 8 billion.

Details of the income statement:

• Operating result: Strong operating result for Q3 2024 at USD 1,057.8 million, a significant increase compared to the same quarter last year.
• EBIT: Achieved an EBIT of USD 1,060.6 million in Q3 2024.

Cash flow overview:

• Operating cash flow: For the first nine months of 2024, operating cash flow amounted to USD 3,096 million.
• Free cash flow: Decrease to USD 1,661 million from USD 3,433 million in the prior-year period.

Key figures and profitability metrics:

• EBITDA margin: EBITDA margin increased to 28.1% in Q3 2024 compared to 21.0% in Q2 2024.
• Equity ratio: Was a solid 61.9% as at September 30, 2024.

Segment information:

• Liner Shipping: Revenue in Q3 2024 amounted to USD 5,668 million with an EBITDA margin of 27.9%.
• Terminal and infrastructure sector: Revenue in Q3 2024 amounted to USD 110 million with an EBITDA margin of 39.2%.

Competitive position: The company was able to increase its average freight rates in Q3 2024 due to strong demand on the Transpacific and Far East routes.

Forecasts and management commentary: The earnings outlook for the financial year 2024 has been raised, supported by stronger demand and improved freight rates. Group EBITDA is expected to be between USD 4.6 and 5.0 billion.

Risks and opportunities:

• Risks: Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and volatile freight rates could pose challenges.
• Opportunities: Improved earnings outlook and solid demand growth offer positive prospects.

Summary of results:

Positives:

• Earnings growth in Q3 2024: Strong performance supported by improved volumes and pricing adjustments.
• Increase in average freight rates: Benefited in particular from demand on Transpacific and Far East routes.
• Raised outlook for FY 2024: Expected EBITDA for the full year is higher due to increased demand.
• Strong equity ratio: With an equity ratio of 61.9%, the company demonstrates a solid financial base.
• Improved EBITDA margin: Increased significantly to 28.1% in Q3 2024.

Negative aspects:

• Decline in EBITDA: Decrease from USD 4.5 billion to USD 3.6 billion due to cost pressures and potentially lower volumes.
• Significant decrease in net liquidity: Sunk to USD 0.8 billion, which could affect financial flexibility.
• Lower free cash flow: Decline year-on-year, which could indicate lower operating efficiency or higher investment requirements.
• High transportation costs: Continue to weigh on earnings and pose a challenge to margins.
• Geopolitical uncertainties: Tensions and disruptions in supply chains may pose further risks.

Companies that I find interesting but do not yet have in my portfolio and that have a 10-year average ROIC of over 10% and a 5-year average ROCE and ROIC of over 10%, $ANET, $MA (-0,3 %) , $VRTX (+0,82 %) , $RMS (+0,11 %) , $PGHN (+0,7 %) , $COLO B (+0,16 %) , $ACN (-5 %) , $MNST (+4,14 %)
$FICO (-1,51 %) , $MCO (-1,54 %) , $KNIN (+0,46 %) , $S&P Global, $ISRG (-1,15 %)
$III (-1 %) , $BKNG (-5,35 %)
$HLAG (-0,6 %) , $QCOM (-4,11 %) , $CFR (+0,31 %) and $IFX (-1,86 %) . Already blatant companies

10.09.2024

Oracle exceeds expectations +
JPMorgan resumes Hapag-Lloyd with 'Underweight' + China's exports rise faster than expected + Apple presentation hardly moves

Oracle $ORCL (-4,33 %) reported first-quarter results late Monday that beat Wall Street estimates, driven by the strength of the software maker's cloud offerings. Adjusted earnings per share rose to $1.39 in the three months through August from $1.19 a year earlier, beating the consensus of $1.33 polled by Capital IQ. Revenue rose 7% to $13.31 billion, beating analysts' estimate of $13.24 billion. Shares rose 7.9% in after-hours trading. Cloud services and license support revenue rose 10% to $10.52 billion, while the cloud licenses and on-premise licenses segment grew 7% to $870 million. The hardware and services segments recorded declines of 8% and 9% respectively. Oracle's remaining performance obligations - future obligations from contractual relationships - increased 53% to a record $99 billion, which will accelerate revenue growth throughout fiscal 2025.

The US bank JPMorgan $JPM (-0,57 %) has increased the valuation of the shares of Hapag-Lloyd $HLAG (-0,6 %) with an "Underweight" rating and a price target of 85 euros. In the European transportation and logistics sector, analyst Alexia Dogani focuses on companies with strong competitive positions with high entry barriers and significant pricing power such as DHL $DHL (+0,55 %) and InPost $INPST (+0,72 %). She also likes companies such as DSV $DSV (-1,62 %) and Kuehne + Nagel $KNIN (+0,46 %)which have consolidated the market in order to improve cost development through economies of scale and leverage. On the other hand, she is skeptical about container shipping companies such as Moller-Maersk $MAERSK B (-2,43 %), ZIM $ZIM (+0,89 %) and Hapag-Lloyd. Dark clouds are gathering over them, as interest rates have peaked and the supply of capacity continues to increase.

A glimmer of hope for China's economic recovery: exports from the second-largest economy grew more strongly than expected in August. According to data from the Beijing customs authority, exports rose by 8.7 percent year-on-year to the equivalent of 309 billion US dollars (around 280 billion euros). This means that Chinese exports have increased for the fifth month in a row. Imports increased by 0.5 percent. Analysts had previously expected exports to increase by 6.6 percent, while they expected imports to rise by 2.5 percent.

In the context of the presentation of new AI-enabled iPhones and other innovations, the share price rose by Apple $AAPL (+0,26 %) (unchanged) were volatile within narrow limits, but turned slightly positive at the end. According to JP Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee, a large part of the new developments had already been leaked via leaks in the supply chain.

• iPhone 16 Pro (Max) & 16 (Plus): Larger batteries and the A18 (Pro) for the same price
• Apple AirPods 4: New design and ANC for the open in-ears
• Apple Watch 10: Thinner smartwatch with new OLED display and new water sensors
• Apple Watch: not an Ultra 3, but a black Ultra 2

Tuesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

17:00 Boeing deliveries 8/24

18:00 Nike AGM

Untimed: Gamestop Corporation quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

11:00 Jost Werke Capital Markets Day

Untimed: Renk Group Capital Markets Day

Economic data

• 04:00 CN: Foreign trade August trade balance PROGNOSE: +80.00 bn USD previous: +84.65 bn Euro Exports PROGNOSE: +6.6% yoy previous: +7.0% yoy Imports PROGNOSE: +2.5% yoy previous: +7.2% yoy
• 08:00 DE: Consumer prices (final) August PROGNOSE: -0.1% yoy/+1.9% yoy Preliminary: -0.1% yoy/+1.9% yoy Previous: +0.3% yoy/+2.3% yoy HICP PROGNOSE: -0.2% yoy/+2.0% yoy Preliminary: -0.2% yoy/+2.0% yoy Previous: +0.5% yoy/+2.6% yoy
• 08:00 UK: Labor market data August unemployment benefit recipients Unemployment rate 3 months (ILO) FORECAST: 4.2% previous: 4.2%
• 23:59 US: 3h to go until the TV debate between the candidates for the US presidency Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

What do you think of $HLAG (-0,6 %) ? I would like to hear your opinion. I'm considering adding it to my portfolio, but I think it's a bit too expensive at the moment. What do you think?

$HLAG (-0,6 %) The Executive Board will propose a dividend of € 9.25. The ex-date is 03.05.

What is your current opinion on logistics, e.g. $HLAG (-0,6 %)
$1919 (-1,33 %) or $KNIN (+0,46 %)

Logistics is always growing in my eyes. More and more important in times of e-commerce. $KNIN (+0,46 %) eig always open and ready for new innovative projects. A possible takeover of DB Schenker is also on the cards.