The military escalation between the USA, Israel and Iran is causing strong market movements worldwide. Investors are shifting out of cyclical sectors and into security, energy and defense.

_________________________

Bitcoin $BTC (+0,86 %) shows surprising stability

• 📈 In the meantime +8,1 %
• 💰 Just over 70,000 dollars
• Stabilization at around 69,000 dollars

Despite geopolitical risks, Bitcoin is apparently being used as a liquidity parking lot in the short term. At the same time, volatility remains high - further escalations could trigger new spikes.

_________________________

🛢 Oil prices up significantly

• Brent: + just under 6 %
• WTI: + a good 5 %
• In the meantime even +13 %

According to the report, the USA is currently no release from the strategic oil reserve. The market is still considered to be supplied, but the situation remains tense.

_________________________

🏦 Banks under pressure

The European banking index loses around 3,5 % - sharpest decline since April 2025.

Particularly affected:

• HSBC - $HSBA (-1,12 %)
• Barclays - $BARC (-1,06 %)
• Standard Chartered - $STAN (-1,79 %)
• Deutsche Bank - $DBK (-1,37 %)
• BNP Paribas - $BNP (-2,02 %)
• BBVA - $BBVA (-2,59 %)
• Commerzbank - $CBK (+1,17 %)

In the USA also weaker until the US opening:

• Bank of America - $BAC (-0,55 %)
• Citigroup - $C (-0,1 %)

Reason: Strong Middle East business of many institutions and general risk aversion of investors.

_________________________

✈️ Travel industry collapses

High oil prices and uncertainty weigh heavily on tourism stocks:

• TUI - $TUI1 (-2,98 %) (-11 %)
• Lufthansa - $LHA (-2,43 %) (-11 %)

Flights to the region are canceled, travel offers suspended. Investors fear rising costs and falling booking figures.

_________________________

💎 Luxury stocks clearly in the red

The European luxury index loses almost 4 %.

Strongly affected:

• Richemont - $CFR (-0,27 %)
• Swatch - $UHR (-2,07 %)
• LVMH - $MC (-0,76 %)
• Hermès - $RMS (-2,37 %)
• Kering - $KER (-2,47 %)
• Brunello Cucinelli - $BC (-1,05 %)
• Moncler - $MONC (+1,04 %)
• Ferragamo - $SFER (+1,7 %)

Background:

Luxury is heavily dependent on global travel. Capital flows out of cyclical stocks.

_________________________

🛡 Defense stocks as clear winners

Geopolitical tensions drive up defense stocks:

• BAE Systems - $BA. (-1,44 %)
• Lockheed Martin - $LMT (-1,48 %)
• RTX - $RTX (-0,57 %)
• Kratos - $KTOS (-2,76 %)
• Hensoldt - $HAG (+0,8 %)
• Leonardo - $LDO (+1,35 %)
• Renk - $R3NK (+0,46 %)
• Rheinmetall - $RHM (-2,02 %)

Partial price increases of 3-6 %.

The focus is particularly on missile defense systems and possible increases in defense budgets.

_________________________

🚢 Shipping companies benefit

Transport values increase due to detour (avoidance of Hormuz, Suez Canal & Bab al-Mandab):

• Maersk - $MAERSK A (-1,29 %)
• Hapag-Lloyd - $HLAG (-1,77 %)
• Torm - $TRMD A (+0,78 %)
• Frontline - $FRO (-2,2 %)
• Hoegh Autoliners $HAUTO (-0,33 %)

Reason: Shortage of transport capacity and speculation on rising freight rates.

_________________________

🥇 Gold in demand

• Gold price: +2,5 %

Profiteers in mining stocks:

• Evolution Mining - $EVN (+0,05 %)
• Northern Star - $NST (-2,38 %)

The sector has been showing relative strength for several days.

$4GLD (-0,72 %)
$GOLD
$GOLD (-2,15 %)

_________________________

📊 Market logic clearly recognizable

Winner:

🛡 Armaments

🚢 Shipping companies

🥇 Gold

₿ Bitcoin (short-term)

Losers:

🏦 Banks

✈️ Travel

💎 Luxury

_________________________

🔎 Conclusion

The market reaction follows the classic pattern of geopolitical crises:

• Risk is reduced
• Capital seeks security
• Energy prices rise
• Defense stocks benefit

The decisive factor remains whether the situation eases diplomatically - or escalates further.

_________________________

Source:

Reuters: Anleger greifen bei Bitcoin als "Fluchtvehikel" zu (Via TradingView)

Also $BC (-1,05 %) is also suffering from the slump in the luxury sector.

Great company, good figures recently, but the share price only moves in one direction.

My limit order is at €70

New month and new purchase ladies and gentlemen, what can I say, for this month I decided to include in the portfolio a historic company, from a solid sector and one that allows me to sleep soundly, the absence of taxes on British dividends makes companies on the British list very attractive, therefore it could not miss $BATS (+0,79 %) offering a dividend of 7 percent, which is more than satisfactory. I was on the fence about adding pharmaceutical stocks or grabbing ISPA shares but wanted to add a non-cyclical sector to the portfolio.

In the previous days I also made a small entry on $RACE (-0,84 %) liquidating the shares of $BC (-1,05 %) +10% in about 2 weeks and the shares of $FGEQ (-0,33 %) , ETF sold just above par, the stock has continued to fall and I am down 8-9% but as with Cucinelli I see Ferrari as a safe haven, I fear nothing for the stock.

The sharp drop in $BC (-1,05 %) motivated by more political than economic issues regarding the company's balance sheet, is practically a penalty kick given away for retail investors like us, a solid company put at a discount, the liquidity was not there to seize the opportunity, I had to sell my small stake in $NWL (-1,8 %) but no regrets, I cashed in that +30% gain made in 2 months to get, albeit with a small size, a luxury gem, did you take this opportunity? Otherwise, catch up in two weeks for the next purchase, this time almost certainly an ETF.