Today, we reinforced 4 positions for a total of $18,873, allocated as :

• +15 $SNPS (+3,48%) shares for $6,872
• +50 $NOW (+1,67%) shares for $5,256
• +200 $ALKAL (-4,77%) shares for $2,700
• +20 $AIR (-0,55%) shares for $4,045

The majority of these companies are structurally coherent and strong companies, deeply embedded in their respective industries.

$AIR (-0,55%)

📊 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬

• Revenue: €12.7B (−7%)

• Adj. EBIT: €0.3B (vs €0.6B)

• EBIT: €0.2B

• Net income: €0.6B

• EPS: €0.74

• Free cash flow: −€2.5B

• Deliveries: 114 aircraft

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🎯 𝐆𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞

• Deliveries FY: ~870 aircraft

• Adj. EBIT FY: ~€7.5B

• Free cash flow FY: ~€4.5B

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📌 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐓𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬

• Revenue and EBIT declined driven by lower aircraft deliveries

• Commercial aircraft margin heavily pressured

• Defence & Space showed strong growth and profitability

• Massive negative free cash flow from inventory build-up and delivery timing

• Supply chain issues (Pratt & Whitney engines) remain key bottleneck

• Order intake strong with backlog above 9,000 aircraft

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💬 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐲

“Operating environment remains dynamic and complex.”

War is ubiquitous right now. Whether you look at Ukraine, Iran, the Gulf, Pakistan, or not so long ago Venezuela. And that’s despite Trump’s claims that he supposedly ended eight wars since he came into office. While nobody knows which wars he ended, most people definitely know which he has begun. And that’s not to critique the engagement in Iran or Venezuela. Trying to overthrow evil dictators is not an inherently bad cause, however the method might be more than questionable.

At this point, the standoff between Trump and whoever is in charge of Iran seems more like two kids fighting in the playground over who opens the Strait of Hormuz first and finally gives the Gulf nations some breathing space again.

But one thing is undoubtedly clear in all this. The defence sector is booming everywhere. In Europe, the US and Asia, countries are rearming themselves, for very different reasons. Europe because the American security guarantee is no longer completely reliable, with NATO seemingly in question. Asia because China continues to expand its dominance and push to become the leading world power. And the US because it still wants to play “World Police,” even if that might not be the most popular approach domestically anymore. But I guess we’ll find that out in the midterms.

Considering all of this, nobody can doubt the importance of defence companies, and their backlogs are as full as you would expect. The poster child of European rearmament is Rheinmetall, growing at unprecedented rates with order books stretching years into the future. And that is definitely reflected in the stock price. Since the start of the Ukraine War five years ago, the stock has risen by more than 2,200%. Yes, that’s right, if you invested $10k then, they would be worth $220k now.

But we all know that Europe’s defence industry has been historically underfunded, so it’s no surprise that it eventually caught up. What about the US then?

The sector is doing well, as always, but the stock performance hasn’t been as extraordinary. Around 110% over the last five years for the SPDR U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF is solid, but not exactly record-breaking. So is now the time to invest? After all, Trump did announce a massive hike in the defence budget from currently $901 billion to more than $1.5 trillion.

Whether that actually goes through is a different question, considering the already massive national debt and Trump’s midterm concerns. But we also know he can take a different approach.

Just a few months ago, the President floated the idea of a pay cap for defence executives and even proposed restricting share buybacks and dividends. Our wonderful “businessman” of a president wants to cut incentives for both management and investors. How encouraging.

So ultimately, whether you should invest in defence right now is a matter of opinion. Personally, I think the European sector is overbought, but demand is clearly there, so I wouldn’t be too worried about holding names like Rheinmetall or others. For the US, it seems the market doesn’t fully believe in the trillion-dollar budget, given current valuations and revenue expectations of the major players.

But again, it’s still one of those sectors where you probably can’t go too wrong, and there is definitely still some upside left.

$ITA (+0,86%)
$LMT (+1,25%)
$GD (-0,81%)
$NOC (+1,9%)
$RTX (+0,57%)
$LHX (+2,32%)
$BA (-1,84%)
$AIR (-0,55%)
$RHM (-0,51%)

Let’s be real: finding quality companies at a fair price right now is a goddamn nightmare. Everything feels overpriced, and I’m not willing to sacrifice my margin of safety just because of the hype.

I’m sitting on cash and being patient. I know what I want, I’m just waiting for the market to give me a better entry point. These are the fortresses on my Watchlist:

Expanding current positions: $GOOGL, (+6,31%)
$META (+1,65%) .

New targets: $AMZN (+6,44%) , $MEDP (-0,16%) , $ASML (+0,13%) , $AIR (-0,55%) (Airbus), $RMS (-0,79%) (Hermès) and the Greek gem $KRI.AT (Kri Kri Milk).

What about you? Which companies are you stalking right now?