Interview with Clemens Fuest - Germany on the brink? Ifo President finds: "Elon Musk is talking nonsense"

The German economy is stagnating and economic output is not rising above the 2019 level. That is the bitter outcome of a lost half-decade, as Clemens Fuest, President of the Ifo Institute, makes clear in an interview with the FAZ.

"We have real problems," says Fuest, adding that it is not just external circumstances that are weighing on Germany's economy, but also home-grown problems. In this tense economic environment, Fuest voices fierce criticism of Elon Muskthe CEO of Tesla. Musk, known for his sometimes controversial statements and visions, hatte zuletzt Vorschläge gemacht which Fuest describes as "gross nonsense". These proposals relate in particular to Musk's ideas on the industry of the future.

"Germany is not on the brink"

Musk has repeatedly emphasized that Germany must fundamentally change its industrial policy in order to remain competitive. Fuest replied: "Germany is not on the brink, wie er behauptet . Our country is stuck in stagnation, that's something completely different."

Fuest emphasizes in the interview that German economic policy should aim to further promote its strengths. "Depending on the count, there are between 1,000 and 1,500 companies in Germany that are world market leaders in a niche. No other country has this in this form. And that leads to the export strength that continues to characterize Germany."

The Ifo Director calls for political decision-makers in Germany and Europe to rethink and adapt their strategies. "The approach of relying heavily on subsidies to transform the economy" was wrong, he emphasizes. The "traffic light coalition has also failed to find an answer to the decline in investment in companies and housing construction".

"Depending on the count, there are between 1,000 and 1,500 companies in Germany that are world market leaders in a niche. No other country has this in this form. And that leads to the export strength that continues to characterize Germany."

My dears, which world market leaders can you think of here? And which German niche companies are you counting on?

$SIE (-0,04%)
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Interview mit Clemens Fuest - Deutschland am Abgrund? Ifo-Präsident findet: „Elon Musk redet groben Unfug“

Dax dividends fall

In 2025, the 40 DAX companies will be paying out seven percent less than last year, according to a forecast by Handelsblatt. Car manufacturer shareholders will be hit particularly hard.

Many DAX shareholders will have to adjust to lower dividends for the current financial year: According to a forecast by Handelsblatt, the 40 Dax-listed companies will pay out a combined €48.5 billion next spring. That would be seven percent less than in the previous year.

At the same time, 22 companies are likely to further increase their payouts and eight will reduce their dividends. But overall, there will be a decline for the first time since the outbreak of the pandemic. This is mainly due to the car manufacturers, where the dividend total is likely to fall by almost 35% to around ten billion euros. This is due to falling profits at VW $VOW (-0,19%) , BMW $BMW (+0%) and Mercedes $MBG (-0,08%) due to poor sales figures in Europe and especially in the former boom country China.

In contrast, the sporting goods manufacturer Adidas $ADS (+0,06%) , the Deutsche Telekom
$DTE (-0,16%) and the arms manufacturer Rheinmetall $RHM (+0,78%) are increasing their dividends particularly sharply. This also applies to Deutsche Bank
$DBK (-0,2%) and Commerzbank $CBK (+0,03%) and the insurers Allianz $ALV (-0,03%) , Munich Re
$MUV2 (+0%) and Hannover Re
$HNR1 (-0,08%) . The healthcare group Fresenius $FRE (-0,01%) has not distributed anything for 2023, but is now planning a dividend again.

Commerzbank analyst Andreas Hürkamp sees a rotation: "In 2011, the automotive sector replaced utilities as the sector with the highest dividends. Now it is becoming apparent that after 14 years, insurers will be the new number one dividend payers in the DAX."

Handelsblatt

Analyst updates, 21.11.

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- BERNSTEIN RAISES TARGET FOR NVIDIA TO USD 175 (155) - 'OUTPERFORM' $NVDA (+0,6%)

- JPMORGAN RAISES TARGET FOR NVIDIA TO 170 (155) USD - 'OVERWEIGHT' $NVDA (+0,6%)

- EVERCORE ISI RAISES TARGET FOR NVIDIA TO 190 (189) USD - 'OUTPERFORM' $NVDA (+0,6%)

- JEFFERIES RAISES TARGET FOR SIXT STEMS TO EUR 110 (100) - 'BUY' $SIX2 (+0,37%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH RAISES RHEINMETALL TO 'BUY' (HOLD) - TARGET 700 (550) EUR $RHM (+0,78%)

- BARCLAYS RAISES TARGET FOR FRESENIUS SE TO EUR 40 (38) - 'OVERWEIGHT' $FRE (-0,01%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the target price for ALSTRIA OFFICE from EUR 3.40 to EUR 7.10. Hold. $AOX (+0%)

- BERNSTEIN raises the price target for ESSILORLUXOTTICA from EUR 194 to EUR 200. Market-Perform. $EL (+0,06%)

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- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for NESTLE from CHF 87 to CHF 85. Hold. $NESN (-0,25%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for MEDIOS from EUR 23 to EUR 18. Buy. $ILM1 (+0%)

- ODDO BHF lowers the price target for GRENKE from EUR 27.30 to EUR 18.30. Neutral. $GLJ (+6,79%)

- BERNSTEIN lowers the price target for KERING from EUR 260 to EUR 220. Market Perform. $KER (-0,08%)

- BERNSTEIN lowers the price target for LVMH from EUR 795 to EUR 700. Outperform. $MC (-0,12%)

- BERNSTEIN lowers the price target for VESTAS from DKK 250 to DKK 215. Outperform. $VWS (-1,09%)

- JEFFERIES lowers the price target for SMA SOLAR from EUR 19 to EUR 14. Hold. $S92 (-0,41%)

- JEFFERIES lowers the price target for VERBIO from EUR 27 to EUR 22. Buy. $VBK (+0,4%)

- JEFFERIES lowers the price target for PVA TEPLA from EUR 14.50 to EUR 12. Hold. $TPE (-0,93%)

- HSBC downgrades TARGET to Hold. Target price USD 138. $TGT (+0,52%)

- UBS lowers the price target for BAYER from EUR 30 to EUR 22. Neutral. $BAYN (+0,15%)

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- UBS raises its price target for NVIDIA from USD 150 to USD 185. Buy. $NVDA (+0,6%)

- METZLER raises the price target for MUNICH RE from EUR 535 to EUR 543. Buy. $MUV2 (+0%)

- GOLDMAN lowers the target price for NOVO NORDISK from DKK 1040 to DKK 1025. Buy. $NOVO B (+1,79%)

- GOLDMAN upgrades MTU from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from EUR 276 to EUR 400. $MTX (-0,05%)

- GOLDMAN upgrades BASF from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from EUR 45 to EUR 53. $BAS (-0,02%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for FRESENIUS SE from EUR 42 to EUR 44. Buy. $FRE (-0,01%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for EMBRACER from SEK 24 to SEK 28. Hold. $TH9A

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for AMADEUS IT from EUR 62 to EUR 65. Hold. $AMS (+0,04%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for NEMETSCHEK from EUR 85 to EUR 100. Hold. $NEM (+0,13%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for DÜRR from EUR 32 to EUR 33. Buy. $DURYY

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB upgrades CANCOM from Hold to Buy. Target price EUR 32. $COK (-0,04%)

- ODDO BHF upgrades GENERALI to Neutral. Target price EUR 26.10. $G (+0,05%)

- METZLER raises the price target for HEIDELBERG MATERIALS from EUR 131 to EUR 138. Buy. $HEI (-0,12%)

- BERENBERG raises the price target for FLATEXDEGIRO from EUR 16 to EUR 18. Buy. $FTK (-0,08%)

- BERENBERG raises the price target for FREENET from EUR 29 to EUR 32. Buy. $FNTN (-0,32%)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for HEIDELBERG MATERIALS from EUR 108 to EUR 149. Overweight. $HEI (-0,12%)

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- UBS lowers the price target for MUNICH RE from EUR 560 to EUR 540. Buy. $MUV2 (+0%)

- ODDO BHF downgrades MODERNA to Outperform. Target price USD 86. $MRNA (+0,77%)

- UBS downgrades VALE from Buy to Neutral and lowers target price from USD 14 to USD 11.50. $VALE (+0,48%)

- DZ BANK lowers target price for DEUTZ from EUR 6.80 to EUR 5.80. Buy. $DEZ (+0,52%)

- DZ BANK lowers the price target for BECHTLE from EUR 51 to EUR 45. Buy. $BC8 (-0,13%)

- BERENBERG lowers the target price for ESTEE LAUDER from USD 87 to USD 76. Hold. $EL (+0,42%)

- RBC lowers the target price for ASOS from GBP 4.60 to GBP 4. Sector Perform. $ASC (+0,17%)

- RBC lowers the price target for EVOTEC from EUR 12 to EUR 11.60. Outperform. $EVT (-0,09%)

- RBC lowers the price target for VESTAS from DKK 222 to DKK 156. Outperform. $VWS (-1,09%)

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for SUSS MICROTEC from EUR 80 to EUR 75. Buy. $SMHN (-0,81%)

- JEFFERIES downgrades NEL from Hold to Underperform and lowers target price from NOK 5.50 to NOK 3. $NEL (+0,15%)

- RBC lowers the price target for BMW from EUR 81 to EUR 80. Sector Perform. $BMW (+0%)

- JEFFERIES lowers the price target for KNAUS TABBERT from EUR 26 to EUR 20. Hold. $KTA (+0,37%)

Fresenius Q32024 $FRE (-0,01%)

Financial performance:

• Sales: Fresenius achieved sales of €5.3 billion in the third quarter of 2024, representing strong organic growth of 9%.
• EBIT: EBIT amounted to €552 million in the third quarter, up 9% year-on-year.
• Net profit: Excluding FMC, net profit reached 312 million euros, an increase of 7%.

Key points of the income statement:

• Sales growth was mainly driven by the Kabi and Helios segments, with EBIT growth indicating operational improvements.

Cash flow overview:

• Operating cash flow (OCF): OCF increased to EUR 763 million in the third quarter of 2024, compared to EUR 603 million in the prior-year quarter.
• Free cash flow (FCF): FCF improved significantly and reached 623 million euros, compared to just 102 million euros in the previous year.

Key figures and profitability metrics:

• Net debt/EBITDA: The leverage ratio fell to 3.24x, a decrease of 52 basis points since the end of 2023.
• Interest expenses: Interest expenses increased to 116 million euros in the third quarter of 2024, compared to 102 million euros in the same quarter last year.
• Tax rate: The effective tax rate was 24.5% in the third quarter.

Segment development:

• Kabi: Sales increased by 8%, excluding the impact of currency fluctuations.
• Helios: The Helios segment recorded sales growth of 5 %.

Competitive position:

• Fresenius is implementing its strategy #FutureFresenius to optimize the portfolio and further improve the operating model.

Management forecasts and assessments:

• The company has raised its guidance for the financial year 2024 and now expects to reach the upper end of the EBIT growth range.
• Management remains optimistic of achieving mid to high single-digit organic sales growth.

Risks and opportunities:

• Risks: The economic weakness in China and regulatory changes pose challenges.
• Opportunities: Biopharma continues to show momentum and contribute positively to EBIT.

Summary of results:

Strengths:

• Strong organic sales growth of 9%.
• Significant improvement in free cash flow.
• Operational improvements led to EBIT growth.
• Successful deleveraging measures reduced the debt ratio.
• Positive forecast adjustment for the 2024 financial year.

• Challenges:
• Continued weakness in the Chinese market.
• Higher interest expenses burden profitability.
• Seasonal weaknesses in the hospital business impacted Q3 results.
• Regulatory hurdles in the USA make capacity expansions more difficult.
• Possible impact of elective surgery on parts of the portfolio.

Earnings summary this morning (05.11.) 👇🏼

Krones | $KRN (-0,08%) increases both sales and operating profit in the third quarter, with EBITDA growing by almost 22% to almost 135 million euros. The company confirms its forecast and benefits from improved material availability.

Uniper | $UN01 generates a profit of just under EUR 1.3 billion in the first nine months of 2024, but significantly less than in the previous year. The energy group confirms its outlook for the year with an expected net profit of EUR 1.1 to 1.5 billion.

Hugo Boss | $BOSS (-0,04%) recorded a slight increase in sales of 1% to 1.03 billion euros in the third quarter despite a slump in consumption in China, but EBIT fell by 7% to 95 million euros. The Group confirms its annual targets despite higher sales and marketing costs.

Fraport | $FRA (-0,21%) is lowering its expectations for passenger numbers in 2024 to the lower end of the range of 61 million passengers and is targeting EBITDA in the middle of the previous forecast of 1.26 to 1.36 billion euros. In the summer quarter, revenue rose by 11%, while operating profit only increased by 1%.

Fresenius Medical Care | $FRE (-0,01%) increases operating profit in the third quarter by 43 % to 463 million euros, which is attributable to successful cost savings. The company raises its forecast for adjusted operating profit, but expects a slight decline in sales.

Redcare Pharmacy | $RDC (+0%) reports a decline in adjusted EBITDA to 11.4 million euros in the third quarter and increases the loss for the first nine months to 20.1 million euros. The company confirms adjusted annual targets and expects a lower operating profit due to higher advertising expenditure for the e-prescription.

DHL | $DHL (+0%) reports a decline in profit of almost 7% to 751 million euros for the third quarter and lowers its forecast for operating profit in 2024 and 2026. Revenue increases by 6% to 20.6 billion euros, while EBIT remains stable at 1.4 billion euros.

Norma Group | $NOEJ (-0,13%) is revising its annual targets downwards and now expects sales of around EUR 1.2 billion and an adjusted EBIT margin of around 8.0 percent due to a challenging market environment. In the third quarter, the company recorded a decline in sales of 7.9% to 273.6 million euros and a drop in profit to 6.1 million euros.

Nintendo | $7974 (-1,86%)
Q2 24 Earnings:

- Net Income 27.70B Yen (est 49.4B Yen)

- Sees FY Oper Income 360.00B Yen, Saw 400.00B Yen

- Sees FY Total Switch Sales 12.50M Units, Saw 13.50M

Adecco | $ADEN (+0%) 24 Earnings:

- Net Income EU99.0M (est EU86.8M)

- Rev EU5.70B (est EU5.84B)

- Adj EBITA EU186.0M (est EU195M)

- Plans To Repay EU430M Debt Maturing In Dec 24

22.10.2024

SAP's quarterly figures are better than expected + SHARES IN THE FOCUS: Fresenius and FMC higher - Confidence ahead of quarterly figures + Jefferies lowers Basler to 'Hold' - Target almost halved to 7 euros +

SAP $SAP (+0,18%) unexpectedly increases adjusted pre-tax profit in the third quarter by 27% to 2.24 billion euros and raises its forecast for the year. The SAP share rises by 4% in after-hours trading.

Investors in Fresenius $FRE (-0,01%) and Fresenius Medical Care $FME (-0,03%) seem to be gaining confidence ahead of the quarterly figures due at the beginning of November. In the early afternoon, Fresenius shares, which are listed in the Dax, were the best index stock, gaining 1.4 percent in an attempt to shake off the somewhat weaker trend since mid-September. Fresenius holding FMC rose by 2.1 percent in the MDax, but the shares remained just below their interim high from the beginning of October. Above that, they would cost as much as they last did in mid-June. The third quarter is usually the weakest for the medical group Fresenius, but the management should spread optimism, wrote Berenberg analyst Victoria Lambert. As recently as mid-October, the company was confident of achieving the upper end of the targeted range for the operating result (EBIT) for the full year. According to the expert, the growth in treatment figures at dialysis provider FMC should finally have turned positive in the third quarter and offset the effects of the mortality rate.

The analyst firm Jefferies has Basler $BSL (+0%) from "buy" to "hold" after the figures and almost halved its target price from 13.50 to 7 euros. The machine vision specialist surprised with a comparatively significant weakening of the order situation, wrote analyst Martin Comtesse in a study published on Tuesday. This was preceded by three quarters of improvements. A profit warning, restructuring and management changes were the consequences of the third quarter.

Tuesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Dell USD 0.45

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

12:30 3M | GE Aerospace, | General Motors | RTX quarterly figures

13:00 Philip Morris | Verizon Communications quarterly figures

13:30 Lockheed Martin quarterly figures

22:00 Texas Instruments quarterly figures

Untimed: Paccar quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

03:00 Logitech quarterly figures

14:0 Logitech Call

18:00 Flatexdegiro | Vivendi quarterly figures | LOreal SA, sales 3Q

19:00 Deutsche Börse quarterly figures

Untimed: Givaudan SA: Start of Investor Day (until 23.10.) | Randstad quarterly figures | Tecan: Capital Markets Day

Economic data

11:00 EU: Public finances (2nd publication) 2023 | Government debt 2Q

11:00 DE: German Savings Banks and Giro Association (DSGV), Pk on the Wealth Barometer 2024

14:30 US: Philadelphia Fed services index 10/24

15:00 USInternational Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook

15:15 US: Governing Council member Nagel, speech at Harvard University

16:00 US: Richmond Fed manufacturing index 10/24

16:00 US: ECB President Lagarde, interview with Bloomberg TV

16:30 US: US Treasury Secretary Yellen, press conference at the start of the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings

17:00 US: ECB Chief Economist Lane, interview at New York Fed central banking seminar

01.10.2024

VW issues another profit warning + Fresenius relies on organic growth + Current share price targets

The renewed VW profit warning $VOW (-0,19%) pushed the shares down by 2.0 percent. Volkswagen is facing major challenges, including restructuring measures and margin pressure in both Europe and China, Metzler analysts noted. They also see the possibility of a considerable dividend cut. In the wake of the Volkswagen profit warning, major shareholder Porsche SE also had to withdraw its outlook for the year as a whole. The share lost 2.9 percent, Porsche AG $P911 (-0,36%) fell by 4.3 percent, Mercedes-Benz $MBG (-0,08%) and BMW $BMW (+0%) lost 2.4 percent each.

The CEO of the healthcare group Fresenius SE $FRE (-0,01%) Michael Sen, is focusing primarily on organic growth for the future. Sen did not rule out takeovers of competitors and start-ups in principle. "However, we can grow very well organically with our current portfolio - in other words, without investing a lot of capital. Because we are simultaneously deleveraging," said Sen in an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. Fresenius has not seen the organic growth rates in sales that it has seen in the last one and a half years, almost two years.

BARCLAYS RAISES TARGET FOR LUFTHANSA $LHA (-0,74%) TO EUR 9.50 (7.50) - 'OVERWEIGHT'

JPMORGAN CUTS MUNICH RE $MUV2 (+0%) TO 'NEUTRAL' (OVERWEIGHT) - TARGET 520 EUR

Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Fortum EUR 0.57

Telephone L.M.Ericsson (B) SEK 1.35

Air Products & Chemicals USD 1.77

State Street 0.76 USD

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

22:15 Nike Quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

13:00 Traton Capital Markets Day | KPN Extraordinary General Meeting

19:00 Nokia Extraordinary General Meeting

No time specified: Biontech Innovation Series: AI Day

Stock exchange holiday in Hong Kong, China and South Korea

Economic data

• 09:45 IT: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI manufacturing September FORECAST: 49.0 previous: 49.4
• 09:50 FR: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Manufacturing (2nd release) September FORECAST: 44.0 1st release: 44.0 PREV: 43.9
• 09:55 DE: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Manufacturing (2nd release) September FORECAST: 40.3 1st release: 40.3 previous: 42.4
• 10:00 EU: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI manufacturing Eurozone (2nd release) September FORECAST: 44.8 1st release: 44.8 Previous: 45.8
• 10:30 UK: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Manufacturing (2nd release) September FORECAST: 51.5 1st release: 51.5 previous: 52.5
• 11:00 EU: Euro-zone Consumer Prices (flash estimate) September Euro-zone PROGNOSE: 0.0%gg month/+1.8% yoy previous: +0.1%gg month/+2.2% yoy Core (excl. energy, food, alcohol, tobacco) PROGNOSE: +0.2%gg month/+2.8% yoy previous: +0.3%gg month/+2.8% yoy
• 15:45 US: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI manufacturing (2nd release) September PROGNOSIS: n/a 1st release: 47.0 previous: 47.9
• 16:00 US: Construction Spending August PROGNOSE: +0.2% yoy previous: -0.3% yoy | ISM Manufacturing Index September FORECAST: 47.2 points previous: 47.2 points

+++ Earnings summary this morning, 31.07. +++

Adidas $ADS (+0,06%) achieved sales of €5.8 billion in the second quarter (previous year: €5.3 billion), EBIT of €346 million (previous year: €176 million) and net profit from continuing operations of €211 million (previous year: €96 million).

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KRONES $KRN (-0,08%) achieves revenue of €1.31 billion in Q2 (previous year: +16.7%, analyst forecast: €1.295 billion); EBITDA of €130.8 million (previous year: +22.8%, forecast: €130 million) and net profit of €69.2 million (previous year: +19.5%). Outlook for 2024 confirmed.

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Auto1 Group $AG1 (-0,13%) achieved sales of €1.52 billion in the second quarter (previous year: €1.34 billion, analyst forecast: €1.45 billion), sales of 166,292 vehicles (previous year: €141,682 vehicles); gross profit of €173.3 million (previous year: €127.8 million) and EBITDA (adjusted) of €20.7 million (previous year: -€14.8 million, forecast: €9.7 million).

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TEAMVIEWER $TMV (+5,83%) achieved revenue of €164.1 million in the second quarter (previous year: €154.2 million, forecast: €163.3 million), EBITDA (adjusted) of €67.5 million (previous year: €63.8 million, forecast: €64.3 million) and net profit of €26.5 million (previous year: €34.0 million). Outlook for 2024 confirmed.

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Fresenius $FRE (-0,01%) achieved adjusted sales of €5.41 billion (previous year: €5.1 billion, forecast: €5.27 billion), EBIT (adjusted) of €660 million (previous year: €571 million, forecast: €626 million) and adjusted net income after minority interests of €457 million (previous year: €393 million, forecast: €404 million) in the second quarter. Outlook confirmed.

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Siemens Healthineers $SHL (+0,02%) achieved sales of €5.4 billion in the third quarter (previous year: €5.2 billion, forecast: €5.5 billion), EBIT (adjusted) of €825 million (previous year: €758 million, forecast: €856 million) and net profit of €472 million (previous year: €451 million). Outlook confirmed.

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Nemetschek $NEM (+0,13%) confirms key figures for Q2 with revenue of €227.7m, EBITDA of €61.4m and outlook for 2024.

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Lufthansa $LHA (-0,74%) achieves revenue of €10.01bn (previous year: €9.38bn), EBIT (adjusted) of €686m (previous year: €1.1bn) and net profit of €469m (previous year: €881m) in Q2. Outlook confirmed on July 12.

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KION $KGX (-0,27%) achieved revenue of €2.9 billion in the second quarter (previous year: €2.8 billion, forecast: €2.9 billion), EBIT (adjusted) of €220.3 million (previous year: €192.3 million, forecast: €218 million) and a net profit of €70.7 million (previous year: €72.8 million).