four months after the follow-up purchase. New subsidies, tax cuts and a good forecast have brought the share close to a 52-week high. I am now securing profits before there is a possible gas emergency in Germany in April. The Federal Network Agency is preparing to declare an "alert level" (stage 2 of the gas emergency plan). From April, the first cuts could be made for large industrial consumers in order to ensure that storage is filled for the next winter despite the import ban. BASF would be affected as it requires a minimum load (often around 50%) for its complex chemical Verbund sites. If the allocation falls below this, there is a risk of irreparable damage to the plants. It has been a long time since I traded a German share. $BAS (+0.02%)

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/Xj-PxHireLQ?is=d23V3gOV-iu4Mmpy

Monday:

Defense instead of cars, for a $VOW (-1.16%) VW plant in Osnabrück, this seems to be a real option. In the future, parts for the Irondome could be manufactured here in cooperation with the Israeli defense company Rafael.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/ruestung-volkswagen-koennte-iron-dome-teile-in-osnabrueck-herstellen/100211392.html

Tuesday:

US economic activity has fallen to an 11-month low amid the Iran war due to high prices. Higher energy costs in particular are unsettling economic players in the USA.

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-business-activity-slips-11-month-low-march-amid-iran-war-sp-global-survey-2026-03-24/

Wednesday:

The situation in Germany is also deteriorating due to the war in Iran. The ifo business climate index has fallen to its lowest level for a year. Industry in particular is suffering from the rise in energy costs. According to the ifo Institute, economic growth at the end of the first quarter is therefore likely to be no more than 0.1%.

https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2026-03/ifo-index-wirtschaft-rueckgang-aufschwung-irankrieg

Thursday:

The new $BAS (+0.02%) BASF plant in Zhanjiang, China was opened. Instead of the planned 10 billion euros, it cost just over 8 billion euros. The big advantage of the new plant is the steam cracker, which also runs on butane gas and is therefore not dependent on the now scarce oil distillate naphtha.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/industrie-in-china-dieses-neue-werk-entscheidet-ueber-die-zukunft-von-basf/100211220.html

The most important dates for the coming week:

Monday: 14:00 Inflation data (DE)

Wednesday: 16:00 ISM Manufacturing (USA)

Friday: 14:30 Labor market data (USA)

#inflation
#verbraucher
#industrie
#usa
#deutschland

Can you think of any other dates?

$BAS (+0.02%)

...and I will be selling soon?

The newly built Verbund site in Zhanjiang, Guangdong Province in southern China, with an area of around four square kilometers, is more than just a major project for BASF in the growth market of China.

Zanjiang shows what the future of chemistry looks like: efficient, digital and consciously sustainable from the outset. The site demonstrates a smart integrated Verbund structure on an industrial scale," said Markus Kamieth, Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors of BASF, at the ceremony, which was attended by government representatives, customers, business partners and employees.

At the Zhanjiang site, BASF employs more than 2,000 people and will produce a diversified portfolio that includes basic chemicals, intermediates and specialty chemicals for the transportation, consumer goods, electronics, household cleaning and personal care sectors.

"Getting this site up and running required the determination, speed and exceptional commitment of our BASF team. Completing a project of this magnitude on time and under budget is remarkable - and I would like to thank everyone involved both locally and globally who made it possible," said Kamieth. "This investment demonstrates long-term confidence in the world's largest chemical market and is an important building block in our 'Winning Ways' strategy," he added.

The majority of the products manufactured in Zhanjiang will be supplied directly to customers in China, in line with BASF's local-for-local strategy worldwide. The project was completed on time and well below the original budget; the investment amounts to around EUR 8.7 billion.

"I am proud of BASF's innovative strength, which forms the basis for the launch of the most sustainable integrated chemical site in China," said Stephan Kothrade, Member of the Board of Executive Directors and Chief Technology Officer of BASF, who is responsible for the Asia-Pacific region. "It sets new standards for sustainable chemical production in China and worldwide," said Kothrade.

By using Verbund integration, process innovations and renewable energy, CO2 emissions at the Zhanjiang site can be reduced by up to 50% compared to a conventional petrochemical site. Long-term green power purchase agreements and investments in an offshore wind farm ensure that the plant's power supply is 100% renewable. "Innovative technologies are also used for the steam cracker - the starting point for various value chains in the network," says Kothrade. The steam cracker has a capacity of 1 million tons of ethylene per year and is the world's first cracker whose main compressors (e-drives) are powered 100% by renewable energy, which supports the production of high-quality, low-CO2 products. The flex-feed steam cracker is designed to process various feedstocks such as naphtha.

BASF has successfully ramped up 18 plants at the Zhanjiang site, put 32 production lines into operation and manufactures more than 70 products there. With its proven Verbund concept and long value chains, BASF offers a broad, highly diversified product portfolio from the Chemicals, Materials and Nutrition & Care segments. Integration and scaling enable competitive cost positions, significantly lower CO₂ emissions and a reliable supply for numerous sales markets. "This makes us an attractive partner for our customers in China," says Haryono Lim, President, Mega Projects Asia, BASF. "Together with customers and partners, we will drive innovation and transformation in one of China's most economically dynamic regions," adds Lim. The site therefore provides an important platform for BASF's future growth in China.

BASF announced the Zhanjiang project in 2018 and laid the foundation stone the following year. The first plant to go into operation at the Zhanjiang site was a production plant for engineering plastics in 2022, followed by a plant for the production of thermoplastic polyurethanes in 2024. At the turn of the year 2025/2026, BASF started production of the first value chains in the Verbund and successfully ramped up the steam cracker in record time. Zhanjiang is BASF's seventh Verbund site worldwide and the third largest after Ludwigshafen (Germany) and Antwerp (Belgium). It is operated entirely under the responsibility of BASF. BASF has been operating in Greater China for over 140 years. Today, BASF serves almost all major industries in the region. BASF has a strong production, distribution and innovation presence in China with major sites in Shanghai, Nanjing, Chongqing and Zhanjiang as well as numerous smaller plants across the country. In 2025, BASF generated sales of around EUR 8.2 billion with customers in Greater China and employed almost 13,000 people.

Two days ago, after the earnings, I wrote somewhere that I wanted to $BAS (+0.02%) want to hold on. But what do I care about what I said the day before yesterday? After the rise in oil and gas prices due to the Iran war and the prospect that this is likely to continue for quite some time, I think that a company like BASF, which is heavily dependent on these raw materials and has a lot of problems even without the war, will continue to suffer. I have therefore taken my remaining small profit while there is still any left. On top of that, I received around €500 in dividends over the holding period.

The $BAS (+0.02%) has presented its figures for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the picture is mixed.

• Turnover (expected): 14.16 billion euros
• Turnover (reported): 14.03 billion euros

• EPS (expected): 0.13 euros
• EPS (reported): 0.63 euros

The return to profitability on a quarterly basis and improved cash flow development for the year as a whole are the main positive highlights. In addition $BAS (+0.02%) continues to drive forward efficiency programmes and structural adjustments in order to reduce costs and stabilize profitability in the long term. The dividend is to remain stable at € 2.25 per share, which is a sign of reliability in the current environment.

On the negative side, however, the decline in turnover is due to lower prices and a persistently weak industrial environment, among other things. The outlook for 2026 is also cautious. Management anticipates an operating result at the lower end of market expectations. This indicates that the recovery in demand has so far been muted. Precisely because large chemical companies $BAS (+0.02%) often regarded as early indicators for the industry and therefore also for the German economy, this cautious outlook is remarkable. A clear, dynamic economic upturn for Germany cannot yet be deduced from the figures. Rather, the environment appears to be slowly stabilizing, but without yet entering a noticeable growth phase.

In my opinion, this presents both opportunities and risks. Opportunities lie in a possible cyclical recovery if industrial demand picks up over the course of the year. The ongoing cost-cutting programs could also have a disproportionately high impact on margins as volumes increase. Risks, on the other hand, lie in continued weak global demand, persistent price pressure and geopolitical and energy policy uncertainties, which are particularly relevant for energy-intensive chemical companies. The bottom line is that $BAS (+0.02%) progress at an operational level, but remains heavily dependent on the economic environment.

The key question now is whether we are at the beginning of a cyclical recovery or whether 2026 will remain another transitional year for German industry?

https://de.investing.com/news/economy-news/basf-zeigt-sich-fur-2026-vorsichtig-3364892

~ No investment advice ~

These companies from my portfolio will be reporting in the coming days:

• $O (+0.97%)
• 
  $FRE (-0.76%)
• 
  $ALV (-0.16%)
• 
  $DTE (-3.92%)
• 
  $BAS (+0.02%)

Most interesting figures for my portfolio this week - $BAS (+0.02%)

For me, the $BAS (+0.02%) -figures are the most exciting. The big question: are we finally seeing a cyclical recovery - or will the pressure on margins persist?

The chemical sector is a classic early indicator for the industry. If demand, incoming orders or margins show the first signs of stabilization, this could be a signal for a broader economic recovery. Precisely because $BAS (+0.02%) continues to be one of the leading chemical companies in Germany, the figures are a particular priority for me.

If, on the other hand, the environment remains weak, the patience of us investors is likely to be further tested.

Of course $ALV (-0.16%) , $DTE (-3.92%) & Co. also provide important insights, but $BAS (+0.02%) is about the larger macroeconomic perspective. The overarching question remains: is the cycle turning - yes or no?

Which quarterly figures do you find most exciting this week - and why?

After more than 25 years of negotiations, the EU and the South American economic alliance Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay) have concluded a historic free trade agreement. This creates one of the largest free trade zones in the world - with over 700 million people and a combined economic area worth around 22 trillion USD.

This agreement could trigger global economic and stock market effects - for companies, industries and investors.

_________________________

🛃🚢 What will happen to the Mercosur agreement?

• Tariffs on up to 91% of EU exports and 92% of Mercosur exports are to be gradually eliminated.
• The aim is to create a larger single market, better market access, simplified rules and more stable trading conditions between Europe and South America.
• Until now, high tariffs have applied to cars (approx. 35%), machinery (14-20%) and chemical products (up to 18%).

_________________________

📊 Possible effects on the stock market

📈 1. industries with strong exports benefit from higher demand

Europe can sell its products more easily in South America:

• 👩‍🏭 Cars & car parts
• 🏭 Mechanical engineering
• 🧪 Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
• 🪄 Electronics & high-tech

The elimination of customs duties and fewer trade barriers will increase the margins and competitiveness of these industries.

Possible examples of Frofiteurs:

• VW $VOW (-1.16%) BMW $BMW (+0.4%) Daimler $DTG (+0.07%)
• Siemens $SIE (-0.9%)
• BASF $BAS (+0.02%) Covestro $1COV (+0.08%)
• SAP $SAP (+0.93%) , ASML $ASML (-2.43%)

➡️ Expected share price impetus from higher export revenues and capped production costs.

_________________________

🍖 2. agricultural & food sector in focus

The agricultural business is also becoming more closely networked on both sides:

• Tariffs on wine, oil, cheese, dairy products and luxury foods are being reduced or gradually created.
• EU producers will gain greater market access in South America; conversely, South American agricultural exports (e.g. beef, sugar) will have better access to the EU.

Possible beneficiaries:

• Nestlé $NESN (-0.33%) Danone $BN (+0.17%)
• Heineken $HEIA (+0.16%) AB InBev $ABI (+1.06%)
• FrieslandCampina $FCEPL

⚠️ However, critics point out that price pressure on local farmers* also arises and environmental risks can increase, for example due to cheaper imports.

_________________________

🚗 3. raw materials & energy: medium to long-term effects

Mercosur countries export large quantities of raw materials:

• Soy, sugar, coffee, ethanol, grain
• Brazil is also a major supplier of crude oil and minerals

One of the aims of the agreement is more stable commodity trade with fewer tariffs, which can influence commodity prices and move the shares of commodity and energy companies.

Possible beneficiaries:

• Vale $VALE3 (+0.47%) Petrobras $PETR3 (+3.79%)
• Bunge $BG (+0.99%) , ADM $ADM (+2.13%)

_________________________

🏦 4. finance & services sector

The agreement also facilitates:

• Market access for financial services
• Opening of telecom and transportation markets
• Opening of public procurement to EU suppliers

➡️ This could strengthen banks, insurers and logistics companies that operate across borders.

Possible beneficiaries:

• Allianz $ALV (-0.16%) Deutsche Bank $DBK (-1.78%)
• DHL/Deutsche Post $DHL (-0.78%) Kuehne + Nagel $KNIN (+1.57%)

_________________________

🔄 Short-term market risks

Not everything is automatically positive:

• 🇪🇺 Agricultural protests in Europe show resistance to cheap imports.
• Political uncertainties remain - many parliaments need to ratify.
• Sectors with low competitiveness could come under price pressure.

_________________________

📌 Conclusion

The Mercosur agreement could be an issue with far-reaching effects:

✅ Strong export industry gains new sales markets

✅ Agricultural and luxury food sector gains sales opportunities

✅ Financial and service sector benefits from market expansion

✅ Raw material exporting countries in South America could become more integrated

⚠️ At the same time, there are risks for local producers and price distortions that could have a regional impact on share prices

_________________________

Question for you: What is your opinion on the agreement? And in which sectors or listed companies do you see the biggest winners in the long term?

_________________________

Sources:

- 🌎🤝 Mercosur-Freihandelsabkommen zwischen EU & Mercosur unterzeichnet – größte Freihandelszone weltweit

- 💶📈 Wirtschaftliche Chancen für EU-Exporteure und Importeure durch Zollerleichterungen

- ⚙️🚗 Branchenanalysen mit Zollabbau-Effekten für Maschinen, Autos, Chemie etc.

- 🌾🥩 Agrar- und Rohstoff-Impakte durch neue Marktchancen und Quotenregelungen

Okay, I don't know how to start this. This is going to be a lot of information in a very dense text and it can be confusing, but it's worth sticking with it. Even if it will take me a while to get to what exactly this means for investors.

So ... I recently read through the official White House National Security Strategy and there are some really revolutionary things in there.

For the first time there is a separate chapter on the EU and also on Germany. So the fact that Germany is officially considered a threat to the security interests of the USA would be something one would like to read in the newspaper - provided, of course, there were honest and capable journalists in the country.

Basically, the paper hails criticism: our governments violate basic democratic values, censor freedom of expression, suppress the opposition and let lots of migrants into the country who are not on good terms with either Europe or the USA. Nothing new, but still interesting. What is much more exciting, however, is that Donald Trump is saying something that no president has dared to say since John F. Kennedy - for well-known reasons: namely that the Americans a) no longer want to expand NATO and use it as their primary instrument of power b) want peace with Russia.

There has already been much speculation about the closeness between Trump and Putin. But no one has ever written about the real economic reason why peace with Russia is in the actual interests of the Americans. And that's because you all haven't understood how much AI has really changed foreign policy.

It definitely used to be the case that wars were in America's interests. At least since they got involved in the Second World War - actually without necessity - and were able to increase their prosperity considerably as a result - wars were seen as something great or at least necessary in America. In the 1930s, the USA was at an economic low point. However, after they had supplied half the world with weapons and loans and also plundered important patents, human capital and raw materials, the true rise to superpower status began.

From this moment on, a business model was born: create chaos, sabotage enemies and ultimately sell weapons to both sides. A typical left-wing phrase says that there is no war in which the Americans have not made money.

This has fundamentally changed under Trump. War for the sake of war should no longer be waged - at least not where it is important, in Europe. While Biden still saw the liberation of Ukraine and the destruction of the Nordstream II pipelines as the highest civilizational goal, the Trump administration sees it as an existential threat to Germany that the chemical industry $BAS (+0.02%) which is dependent on Russian gas, no longer receives it in Germany and is therefore migrating entirely to China, where the pipelines are still located.

In other words, while Biden still saw selling us American LNG as a net positive, Trump considers the economic erosion of the ally to be more serious than financing Russia.

And while previous presidents would have praised the fact that the Federal Chancellor is putting our country into debt for generations to build up its armed forces, the White House condemns this approach with the words "lack of self-confidence"

Incidentally, even the Americans themselves are financing Russia and now we are finally getting to what AI has to do with it. Because not many people may have noticed it yet, but the total market cap of all US defense companies $LMT (+1.66%)
$BA (+0.96%)
$NOC (+1.43%)
$RTX (+1.26%)
$GD (+0.57%) and co. is now only 1.3 trillion dollars - you don't even get 1/3 of $GOOGL (+0.18%)

The big money is no longer made with weapons, but with technology. And while Biden and Obama were mainly concerned with moving oil and weapons, Trump is concerned with a) raw materials b) energy and c) supply chains.

I'm lucky that I'm dealing with intelligent readers here who don't need me to explain how microchips are made, so I can cut the supply chain thing short. In short, Trump of course needs the lenses from Zeiss and the EUV lithography from $ASML (-2.43%) and therefore has an interest in ensuring that Europe doesn't sink into chaos. At the same time, of course, chips also need rare earths such as palladium - 50% of the global supply is currently in Russian hands. Incidentally, more palladium is believed to be in the Arctic, i.e. in the hands of Russia, Canada and ... Greenland.

The fact that AI needs a lot of energy is also a widely explained and already understood thesis here. What is less in the spotlight is that, in addition to $IREN (+2.38%) with their solar panels, there is another important energy source for AI, namely small modular reactors (SMRs). I think I also shared a news item 1-2 years ago that the Big Techs are starting to build nuclear-powered data centers.

Now these are very special power plants. SMRs are essentially the latest generation of nuclear power plants, which are more efficient and, above all, much cleaner than conventional nuclear power plants. There's just one catch: you need specially enriched uranium and guess where you can get it: Russia. Specifically, the uranium comes from the ROSATOM group which, incidentally, has not yet been sanctioned as a result of the war in Ukraine. Other countries such as Kazakhstan with its Kazatomprom group also have plenty of uranium, but are not allowed to enrich it like Russia because they do not have nuclear power status.

Ok, I may have promised a bit too much in the title. I don't know whether we will really end up with world peace now, but at least we have overcome the age where it was simply claimed that some dictator had used weapons of mass destruction and the country was then reduced to rubble over a period of years. All in all, there is a good chance that the US government and the US military will in future work hard for the welfare of all shareholders of $NVDA (+1.17%)
$AMZN (+0.11%)
$GOOGL (+0.18%)
$GOOG (+0.41%)
$META (-0.34%)
$MSFT (+1.54%) and $TSLA (-4.75%) shareholders.

Novo Nordisk 3.0% $NOVO B (+1.36%) NVO

LVMH 2.0% $LVMH

Pernod Ricard 6.35% $RI (-1.66%)

Imperial Brands 5.5% $IMB (+1.16%)

BAT 6.2% $BATS (+1.4%)

Sunrise Communications 8.00%

Nestle 4.05% $NESN (-0.33%)

Roche 2.85% $ROG (+0%)

Novartis 3.07% $NOVN (-0.45%)

Shell 4.07% $SHEL (+1.57%)

German Post 3.86% $DHL (-0.78%)

Swisscom 3.75% $SCMN (+0.45%)

German Telekom 3.52% $DTE (-3.92%)

Strabag 2.72% $STR (+0.51%)

Vonovia 4.82% $VNA (+0.27%)

BASF 5.01% $BAS (+0.02%)

Puma 2.8% $PUMA

Hannover Re 3.62% $HNR1 (+0.37%)

Munich Re 3.8% $MUV2 (+0.98%)

Allianz 4.00% $ALV (-0.16%)

BP 5.76% $BP. (+2.57%)

Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/1zt05UZlehInr81iaZMdY5?si=e676f0a812014943

YouTube

https://youtu.be/BpCIIJYfxHA

Appple Podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/125-20-europ%C3%A4ische-dividenden-aktien/id1695869891?i=1000744769342