"Income tax is a penalty because you are useful and productive."
>> Should the tax exist at all? What do you think?
#geld
#steuern
#steuern
#job
#arbeit
#lohn
#gehalt
#nettogehalt
#bruttowarenwert
#ampel
#finanzen
#deutschland
"Income tax is a penalty because you are useful and productive."
>> Should the tax exist at all? What do you think?
#geld
#steuern
#steuern
#job
#arbeit
#lohn
#gehalt
#nettogehalt
#bruttowarenwert
#ampel
#finanzen
#deutschland
The big comparison of carmakers: $BMW
& $MBG
in China
Hello folks,
as announced, this time comes a contribution "from stock" about Mercedes and its role in China. Unfortunately, this time not so many people have warmed up for the comparison of car manufacturers. But I hope that you will still be interested in the article!
As always, we start with my disclaimer:
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. It is also not an invitation to buy / sell financial products. I only describe my opinion here. You have your own responsibility towards your investments. So I also assume no liability.
Many of you will surely remember my contribution to BMW, which even won the CCF. But since we start from 0 with Mercedes, I suggest the following structure:
Mercedes in China
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
In the first part I will give you some basics about the Chinese car production and the special cluster construction in China including the resulting problems for German car manufacturers like Mercedes.
In the second part I will present the corporate strategy, the core products as well as an intuitive valuation of the Mercedes share. Based on this, we will get to know a special feature of Mercedes and make a final conclusion against this background.
Before this is asked: Tesla is not the subject of this series and does not pay dividends. Since I mainly live out my dividend investing side here on Getquin (and no one has asked about my tech portfolio yet), let's leave it at that for now.
If, contrary to my expectations (you're all mostly invested in dividend stocks with core ETF), you're interested in a Tesla stock analysis, drop me a line in the comments.
Importance of China for the automotive industry
What do you think of when I say German automotive industry? Usually, besides transformation, energy prices also various brands come to the table. Often, Mercedes is among them - a primal rock of German automotive engineering.
What is less considered: Mercedes, like many other German car manufacturers, is in the midst of several crises, of which the China crisis mentioned by Prof. Dr. Dudenhöffer is, in my view, the most obvious.
With a gross national product of 17,744.64 billion USD in 2021, China ranks second in the ranking of the largest GDP countries, and in Asia it even represents the largest economy in Asia. There is also no other Asian country with as many potential buyers in absolute terms. In 2022, China's total population was 1,425.89 million and it occupies an area of 9,596,960 square kilometers (see (2), (3)).
What does the area matter?
The area is highly relevant. China is made up of multiple industrial and/or residential clusters that can contain multiple industries, companies and products. BUT: What if I told you that China has a mini-Germany, mini-Italy, and mini-Mexico?
No I wasn't drinking - that's actually true. If we focus on the 3 most important of the industry and residential clusters mentioned, the following are obvious:
What do these clusters have to do with Germany, Italy and Mexico? Are there many inhabitants from these countries?
No. But their GDP - gross national product.
Yes, that is really true. A single cluster of them can rival our country's GDP - and that despite the fact that we rank 4th among countries with the largest GDP. The related study was already published in 2016 and points out the structural superiority of these cluster planning in city and factory construction (see (2), (3), (4)).
If we take the 2016 figures as an example, we can see that Jing-Jin-Ji is our mini-Mexico. The Yangzte River Delta was $2.76 trillion in 2016, roughly on par with our GDP and even exceeding France's GDP by:
1-(2.76 trillion USD / 2.473 trillion USD) = 11.61%.
Yes, read correctly - a single Chinese cluster is enough to outperform one of the most important countries in Europe (see (5), (6), (7)).
That leaves the Pearl River Delta. This comprises 85 million inhabitants, covers 1,989 square kilometers, and reached a GDP of USD 1.38 billion in 2016. Italy, for comparison, has a land area of 302,073 square kilometers. Italy was approximately USD 1.877 billion (see (7), (8)).
Yes those were certainly exceptions and the trend is back to us in Europe?
Unfortunately no. In the case of the Pearl River Delta, one observes increasing growth in the period from 2011 to 2021 and was at 7.9% growth in 2021 DROUGH Corona, inflation and other impediments for the industries (see (8),(9),(10)). In this regard, a look at the annual GDP growth rate since 2012 even highlights the Pearl River Delta's underperformance compared to the national average. This was 8.08% in 2021, so this production cluster is an example of a rather weak cluster of China in terms of growth.
With all that acreage, all that growth, all those great clusters, there must be tremendous opportunities, right?
In theory, yes - because the clusters are so large and comprehensive that they span multiple geographic regions and divide themselves into "first-tier" and "emerging.
So what you're doing with your portfolio, if applicable, with emerging markets, China is already doing with its clusters. Before it was cool.
The resulting opportunities can be seen here exemplarily in the settlement e.g. in Guangzhou (city near Shenzhen) or in Dongguan. The latter is exemplary for "emerging cities," i.e., for up-and-coming cities whose standards may still be below those of Guangzhou in this example.
How is the German automotive industry reacting?
Radically. Source (11) shows, for example, that BMW no longer has its X5 bestseller, the full-force BMW 3 Series and most of its model series built in Germany, but in China (cf. (11)).
Yes read correctly. One of Germany's bedrock companies builds in China and relies on their cluster concept. For this, BMW uses a kind of joint venture with BMW Brilliance Automotive GmbH, founded in 2003. This is more or less an amalgamation of group resources from the BMW Group and the Brilliance Group, which deals with purchasing, production and sales of BMW vehicles in China. It is an employer for 23,000 employees and has built 700,000 BMW vehicles in 2021 ALONE. On their website, they list the typical models - from the BMW 1ner to the X-series to the (partially) electric vehicles around the BMW i3, almost everything is available (cf. (12), (13)).
Everything is made by Chinese hands and produced in exemplary fashion at the sites in Dandong and Tiexi. But that's not enough - because in April 2022, they even added on and that by an area of 125 soccer fields. Obviously, business is good (see (13)).
In addition, already in 2012, an overwhelming majority of the Chinese surveyed, 92%, rated their standard of living as significantly higher than that of their parents. Only 2% said their standard of living had deteriorated. With 2012, this was still BEFORE the great growth of the 2010s (see (14)).
Today, this elevated standard of living is having a significant impact on mobility trends. Suddenly, it is possible for almost every Chinese to own a car. Unfortunately, this leads to abstruse traffic jams, as Beijing's registration figures show. Massive traffic jams already occurred around 2014, so that people could travel 500 meters in half an hour (see (14), (15), (16)).
Yes but they have issued limited license concepts, haven't they? Don't German carmakers now have to fear for their status?
Rather not - in China, a car is considered a significant status symbol, so the limited continent has rather increased the perceived value. Thus, the opposite of what was originally intended has been achieved: Less road congestion - fewer cars. What has been achieved is more interest in cars, the same traffic jam times, and a measly 2% decrease in new registrations.
So golden times for carmakers?
So we can already see that the topic of "carmakers in China" is a multifaceted one. The fact that significant resources in the form of the BMW model series have been withdrawn from Germany and are instead being manufactured in China is already an exclamation mark.
That apparently with such great satisfaction that is grown and....
No not quite right - "100%" satisfied are not the German car manufacturers.
Why?
I'll tell you in the next part of my exploration of the Chinese automotive market!
Do you find the topic interesting? Do you want a second part?
If you feel like my dividend stocks for this March after this rather market-heavy topic, feel free to check out my YT channel. Thanks for 350 YT subscribers!
YOUR BASS-T
Sources
(3) https://de.statista.com/themen/135/china/#topicOverview
(6) https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2017/01/PE17_010_811.html
(8) https://countryeconomy.com/gdp/italy?year=2016
(9) https://www.statista.com/statistics/1172880/china-gdp-growth-rate-of-the-pearl-river-delta/
(10) https://www.statista.com/statistics/263616/gross-domestic-product-gdp-growth-rate-in-china/
(11) https://www.focus.de/finanzen/boerse/f100/x_id_29252510.html
(12) http://www.bmw-brilliance.cn/cn/en/pr/bba.html
(13) http://www.bmw-brilliance.cn/cn/en/pr/shenyang.html
#mercedes
#china
#etfs
#emergingmarkets
#deutschland
#automotive
#bmw
"When we talk to China, we get an airport; when we talk to Germany, we get a lecture." - Another round of Germany bashing
A few days ago, I read a very interesting article about Germany and many of our problems in Manager Magazin:
It mentions 3 keywords in detail: Morality, Prices & Technology
Morality:
The quote in the headline comes from the (Nigerian) Director-General of the WTO after she was invited by our Foreign Minister.
Many countries and regions of the world do not want to receive a moral lecture every time they place an order or invest in or with Germany. So they prefer to buy from other countries that simply want to do business
Prices:
The article mentions that BASF $BAS and Lanxess $LXS will give up their ammonia production in Germany because it is simply no longer economically viable given the energy prices here. Both companies will now operate most of their production in China.
Not only are we creating a further dependency on China, we are also doing massive damage to the environment. Ammonia is produced in China in a much less environmentally friendly way, which will increase CO2 emissions by a factor of 10.
Winner: China
Loser: Germany and the environment
Technology and "digital sovereignty":
While we don't seem to care about sovereignty in many cases (see the example of ammonia from above), we absolutely want to achieve it in the digital realm and are daring to go it alone here without the Americans (who are miles ahead).
Among others, our misappointed minister of the interior Nancy Faeser only wants to use home-grown software for the police - so they are tinkering with something themselves instead of relying on good, functioning software.
According to the article, the Bundeswehr also does not want to use software from abroad, unlike most other partners.
-> In the end, we will probably burn a lot of money again and have to continue to rely on fax and the like
As we are on a stock market platform here and not a political platform, I don't want to go into detail about the political view (don't vote for the Greens 😉), but how we as investors can deal with this.
And there is one way in particular: invest as little as possible in Germany and, if you do, only very selectively. My portfolio therefore only contains the following German stocks:
Regardless of these companies, I don't think there are too many exciting German stocks left. Munich Re $MUV2 could still be mentioned, and Porsche $P911 could also be an exciting brand and therefore share. Deutsche Börse might also be exciting $DB1 and, as very conservative stocks, possibly Telekom $DTE or Deutsche Post / DHL $DHL
What do you think of the points mentioned in the article?
And what are still "must have" stocks from Germany for you?
German tax - madness in four pictures 🇩🇪💶📉 Opinions?
#geld
#finanzen
#steuer
#steuern
#steuernsindraub
#berlin
#deutschland
#ampel
Germany on the way to becoming an emerging market
Hello people,
today will be about a market analysis on Germany. According to the vote, this topic has prevailed over electromobility etc., so today we will look at the German market using the DAX as an example, as well as some basic economic parameters. In particular, I will show the influence of environmental protection on the economy and why it is often not about proper preservation of our environment, but rather about conveying a lower standard of living to support existing structures.
Beforehand as always my DisclaimerThis is not an investment advice. It is also not an invitation to buy / sell financial products. I describe here only my opinion. Therefore, I assume no liability. You have your own responsibility towards your investments.
In order to understand a little better what this analysis on the German state and economy should be about, I suggest the following chapter selection:
Germany in 2023 - on the way to becoming an emerging market?
PART 1
Old-age poverty: Your name is female
PART 2
DAX fetish & green stock pension hatred: Lived delusion
Veganism & mealworm pizza: Environmental protection as a bogus argument
PART 3
E-mobility & inflation: Transport policy from the ivory tower
Old-age poverty: Your name is female
As many may know, I've been running a YouTube channel for a few months now and cover topics around the stock market, stock analysis on dividend stocks as well as sometimes my opinion on markets and trends like veganism, the tobacco sector and social developments within Germany. Feel free to follow me to never miss a video again.
What might be less known is my current viewer distribution. Since the channel was created, 67.1% of my viewers are women or logged in with an account that belongs to a woman. Even if we assume that only 2/3 of the 67.1% are really women, that's still 44.73%. Either way, the great importance of women for my channel cannot be explained away, which is why I would like to open the first article in this series explicitly with a typically female problem: poverty in old age and how little the German state is doing about it.
Subsequently, I will illustrate the distorted, almost paradoxical actions of the German state and its public broadcaster by means of trends such as veganism, e-mobility and a pronounced DAX fetish among various investors, in order to finally paint a picture of a better morning in my opinion.
Let us begin!
Part 1
Old-age poverty: Your name is female
Environmental protection is a topic that has been heard more and more often in the media in recent years. Since 1994, one of Germany's overriding goals has been to protect our natural environment and to take measures to ensure that future generations can also live "well and happily" in Germany. The quote comes in a somewhat modified form from the CDU and could be read on flyers in 2017. The only question is what exactly the priorities of the citizens are at the moment and where the state has to start in order to a) finance this "good and happy" life and b) communicate it to the citizens (see (1), (2), (3)).
If we look at the greatest concerns of the population as of 2012, we find the following among the top three concerns (see (1)):
These top 3 greatest worries, when viewed as a whole, allow for a clear abstraction in terms of the clusters of interests and greatest fears that drive the population around. Within this study, a point related to environmental protection is found only at position 11 - and not even directly. The relevant point does not refer directly to "I am afraid of the demise of our nature" but to the statement "I would not like to be affected by an earthquake, for example" (cf. ibid.).
Do you notice anything?
None of the 11 remaining points has an indirect reference to the topic of environmental protection - at best, environmental protection comes into play with a lot of imagination in the causes of too few points. Interest cluster number 1 runs through the top 5 of the survey and even point 6 with the fear of unemployment demonstrates it very precisely.
Germans are afraid of a) losing their jobs, b) losing their financial security both as employees and in old age, and c) the outlook for the future in particular is among the top 3 in the entire study with its 38% under "it already worries me a bit". In essence, then, the study indicates:
Germany is afraid of relegation
But is the phenomenon new?
No, because I used a little trick: All the data is correct according to the study - but it appeared back in 2012, so we know that the fear of losing social status has already been increasingly driving people around in this country for 10 years at the latest. It is not a new phenomenon and shows in particular where the focus of the policy at that time should have been. If we ask ourselves what today's figures look like, (4) will help us.
Source (4) shows us a graph with 6 different topics, from which the subjects could choose a maximum of 3 in descending importance. So the study is much simplified compared to (1) and wants to make a more general statement. Despite the changes of the last years, the medial constant bombardment with trends (to whose sensefulness I will come later) as well as a corona pandemic, neither the coronavirus nor the climate change wins here contrary to the expectation. The main focus is on inflation with 47%, while environmental protection remained more or less constant at 30% mentioning in the observed period. The coronavirus, on the other hand, was only mentioned by 21% of respondents and is no longer very relevant in the survey (see (4)).
Comparing these parameters and their behavior over time, poverty or social inequality in particular is also a financial issue. The issue of immigration is equally constant and reaches the 5th place. If we focus on this inflation, another study by R&V Versicherung provides us with two interesting figures: 50 and 67.
What could these mean? The French retirement age compared to ours?
No, it's a take on the question of whether or not inflation scares you. While it was 50% in 2021, it is now 67%. This is also reflected in the top 10 biggest worries of Germans from 2022. We see here in 1st place the aforementioned 67% with fear of rising living costs, but also a newcomer in 2nd place: unaffordable housing with 58%. Once again, the top 5 are all financial aspects and environmental protection can only have an impact in 6th place under the guise of "natural disaster". The actual climate change comes only on place 8 with 46%, whereby interestingly the most immanent point of all mentioned lies on the last place: The fear of incompetent politicians or their excessive demands. Apparently, 44% of those surveyed are afraid that the emerging challenges will place too great a demand on politics, and thus on the governing traffic light in particular, and that no suitable solutions will be found (cf. (5), (6)).
Against this background, we have thus understood that fear of financial ruin, lack of government support as well as the absence of a positive prognosis is what drives people around the most in general. Today as 10 years ago.
And the women isolated?
One might think that the problem is a problem for society as a whole and that it is perhaps not all that important. After all, the proportion of women with low age has fallen from 16.4% in 2008 to 13.6% in 2018, so old BASS-T shouldn't be wielding a club against our country's wonderful pension policy and....
Lie, because I got the numbers mixed up. Yes really. Read correctly. In a Germany in which we live "well and happy", old-age poverty among men increased by 2.8% between 2008 and 2018, from 9.9% to 12.7%. These are men who are affected by relative income poverty. In other words, they cannot participate in social life like the average (see (6), (7)).
For women, it only gets worse, because even with the increased values, men do not even reach the value of women in 2008 with 12.7% in 2018. This is very interesting and against the background of the old-age poverty of women, which also increased from 13.6% to 16.4%. At the same time, the study is not even perfect, because both population groups men and women are only recorded from 65 years plus. I take issue with this because in my perception there are two groups in particular on the labor market that experience discrimination:
A finding from (8) supports my thesis, because within 2014 to 2016, at least 49% percent of the respondents experienced discrimination because of their age. By the way, you can delete the "at least" - this means that age is unbeaten as a reason for discrimination and far ahead of hatred of men or women, religion or origin. It is interesting to note that 28% of this discrimination takes place in the workplace. This is also the reason why I mention this. The workplace as a place of enough stress and cognitive effort is not exactly improved by the award as the place with the most discrimination of ALL places asked (cf. (8), (9)).
Why is age discrimination important for age poverty?
(10) identifies explicit examples of age discrimination using several examples. All these examples with reference to older employees have one thing in common: non-employment, failure to apply or dismissal in the worst case (cf. (10)).
Now the prize question: Does it have a) good b) so-so or c) bad effect on my pension entitlement if my application is no longer even read and ends up in file P (trash)?
The answer is c). If you take a look at the percentage of older unemployed (at least 55 years old, but no more than 64.9 years old), you will see a straight line of almost 45° from 2008 to 2021, despite the alleged shortage of skilled workers.
Want to know the exact figures? In 2008, it was "only" 13.1% of 55-64.9 year olds who were unemployed. In 2021, however, we are at 23.4%, which is an increase of 78.62%. So unemployment is shifting backwards. This result is not much improved by the fact that the study authors only documented "registered" unemployed. Cases in which the pension was granted by early severance pay or early retirement with corresponding deductions are not found here. This improves the picture more than would actually be fair and realistic. Also (12) points out very clearly that especially the part 60 upwards of this category is often not statistically recorded. This works through a dishonest focus on men and women "released for placement" who do NOT meet the following parameters (cf. (11), (12)):
These issues around old age are indicators that may fuel old-age poverty. In particular, (13) shows a significant gap between individuals recorded by the Office and microcensus data. This only highlights the phenomenon.
What is exciting is that starting in 2023 (and thus this year), the boomer generation will enter the 55-65 age group and therefore this age structure will also massively increase in numbers shortly before retirement. Thus, more men and women will be faced with the problem of "Do I accept the deductions at 63 or do I continue to work part-time?" It is not made much better by the fact that unemployment figures from this older cohort tend to pick up positive trends more leisurely, so that figures from younger unemployed mostly benefit more (see (13), (14)).
Couldn't they just keep working when they realize that the pension is not enough?
Leaving aside the fact that a life after work should not consist of even more work and mMn enough of the paycheck already seeps into the pension schemes etc., the answer is: predominantly no. Those who do work after retirement are mostly men and do not work full time. Mostly, they are found in smaller jobs (cf. (14)).
Why is this relevant for women in particular? They work too, don't they?
Yes, and many of them work for more than 40 years. The problem: Approx. 38% of FULL-TIME EMPLOYED WOMEN in Germany will have less than 1,000€ net in their old age. According to (15), that's 2.7 million women in Germany and that allows the following statement:
More than every third woman in Germany working full time will be affected by poverty despite 40 years of work.
I find this development in a country "in which we live well and gladly" (yes, I like to repeat this misguided advertising slogan again) frightening and the question arises for me how we can reasonably solve old-age poverty of men and women. I have deliberately argued with current figures in order to avoid rhetoric à la "Yes, they had their pensions paid out, but we women today are much smarter".
This part serves as the opening of my series "Germany on its way to becoming a newly industrialized country".
Every week you have the opportunity to vote for the topic of the next week. Feel free to participate and follow me to never miss a post again :)
Your Bass-T
Sources
(1) https://www.bpb.de/themen/soziale-lage/rentenpolitik/288842/altersarmut/
(2) https://archiv.cdu.de/artikel/fuer-ein-deutschland-dem-wir-gut-und-gerne-leben
(3) https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/lexika/das-junge-politik-lexikon/321275/umwelt-umweltschutz/
(4) https://www.ipsos.com/de-de/inflation-weiter-mit-abstand-grosste-sorge-der-deutschen
(7) https://de.statista.com/infografik/19906/risiko-fuer-altersarmut-in-deutschland-nach-geschlecht/
(9) https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/4692.jpeg
(13) https://www.boeckler.de/data/impuls_grafik_2011_01_6_rgb_rdaxs.jpg
(15) https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/gesellschaft/altersarmut-frauen-101.html
#dax
#deutschland
#altersarmut
#schwellenland
#emerging
My pension information 🤑💶🇩🇪📉
(By post dated 02.12.2023)
399€ Future pension (without adjustment)
58.700€ Deposit
10,6 Fee points (see image below for details)
I paid in for 15 years and no longer have to do so as a self-employed person. I save and invest myself, I'm not naive and I don't rely on the state.
-Last year, the ailing German pension system had to be saved from collapse with €108 billion in taxpayers' money or debt/borrowing. And the trend is rising. This insurance has been bankrupt for many years and has not worked for a long time.
-The US-style stock pension (Roth IRA, 401k) is apparently not coming. We don't get a tax bonus for the pension like the investors over there.
-The so-called equity pension is to become "generational capital", which means a small subsidy of €10-12 billion, which will then be invested. This is supposed to be a start, which may be increased in the future. However, it is uncertain whether this will happen. Nothing has been decided yet either.
-Furthermore, it is to be expected that the tax and levy champion of the world will later tax the state pension.
-We can also expect a further reduction in the pension level and, of course, a higher retirement age.
-Therefore, I think it cannot be stressed enough today to reduce consumption and maximize savings rates in order to invest and increase money.
-Financial security also favors better medical care and therefore a longer life. Health insurance benefits will also be reduced or become more expensive. We therefore have no idea how expensive it will be for us as pensioners. It is better to be prepared than to be faced with unsolvable problems and suffer later on.
>How much pension do you say you will receive and how much have you paid in so far?
>>How many pension points have you already collected?
#rente
#aktienrente
#pfandflaschenrente
#sparen
#sparplan
#sparpläne
#geld
#deutschland
#meinung
#hilfe
#vorsorge
I have been advising against buying cancer, the stupidest DAX management and the never-ending Monsanto story for 5 years.
You can lose Bayer well. Now back in court in the USA. Pharma is apparently also doing badly. Shitty share since 2015 💀 -76% in 8 years 📉 German Stupid Money 🇩🇪
Bayer with new 14-year low! Is it time to buy this shitty stock now?
The wave of lawsuits could switch from glyphosate to the next Monsanto product. Then Bayer might be busy for another 10 years.
#bayer
#dax
#dax40
#aktien
#aktie
#börse
#usa
#deutschland
#monsanto
#krebs
#memes
#meme
Good News: Stronger economic growth than previously expected! 📈🇩🇪
The German government expects the economy to perform better in 2023 than previously anticipated. According to the spring forecast, the economy will grow by 0.4% this year and by 1.6% in 2024. The Ministry of Economics is confident that the recovery will strengthen over the course of the year. This forecast is also slightly more optimistic than that of the leading economic institutes, which predict growth of 0.3%. The German Council of Economic Experts predicts an increase of only 0.2%. This data is definitely an encouraging sign for the German economy and gives hope that the situation will continue to improve in the coming months!
How do you assess economic growth in Germany this year?
#MarketNews
#MarketNewsUpdate
#wirtschaft
#wachstum
#deutschland
"ChatGPT ban: Italy bans use of AI".
Please #deutschland do not take an example! 😫