Impact of Iran Closing the Strait of Hormuz on Global Markets

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important oil transit routes in the world. About 20% of global oil supply passes through this narrow waterway. If Iran decides to close it, oil prices could skyrocket above $200 per barrel, according to Macquarie Commodities Strategy Head Marcus Garvey. While this is not the expected scenario, even a temporary disruption could cause major economic consequences.

Who Benefits?

Companies involved in oil production and energy supply would likely see higher profits due to rising oil prices. Some stocks that could benefit include:

• Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) in the U.S.
• Shell (SHEL) and BP (BP) in Europe
• Oilfield service providers like Schlumberger (SLB) and Halliburton (HAL), which support drilling operations

Who Suffers?

Industries that rely on oil for production and transportation would struggle with higher costs. Some of the most affected sectors include:

• Airlines (Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Lufthansa)
• Automakers (Volkswagen, Ford, Tesla)
• Shipping companies (Maersk, FedEx, UPS)
• Chemical producers (BASF, Dow Inc.)

Likelihood of Closure

Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz multiple times, but it has never fully blocked it. The last major disruption occurred during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), when both sides attacked oil tankers. More recently, in 2019, ships were attacked near the strait, raising concerns about security. Experts believe a full closure is unlikely, as it would also hurt Iran’s economy and provoke military retaliation.

Conclusion

If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices would surge, benefiting energy companies while hurting industries dependent on oil. However, history suggests that a full blockade is not likely, though tensions in the region remain high. Investors should watch oil markets closely as geopolitical risks evolve.

$XOM (-0,79 %)
$CVX (+2,65 %)
$SHEL (+0,42 %)
$BP. (+0,78 %)
$LHA (+0,07 %)
$VOW (-0,72 %)
$MAERSK A (-0,61 %)
$TSLA (-0,05 %)

O último mês foi marcado por bastante volatilidade, mas no geral, os resultados reforçam a minha estratégia. O momento mais baixo aconteceu no dia 08 de janeiro, quando observei uma queda de -1,15% no meu portfólio. No entanto, a maior alta foi de 4,42%, o que valida as entradas que fiz nas ações anteriormente mencionadas.

Estas são as que continuo a reforçar com base na minha análise:

• ✅ Ambev (ABEV) $ABEV3
• 
  ✅ Vale (VALE) $VALE (+0,71 %)
• 
  ✅ Elevance Health (ELV) $ELV (-0,42 %)
• 
  ✅ Comcast (CMCSA) $CMCSA (-0,32 %)
• 
  ✅ Maersk (MAERSKa) $MAERSK A (-0,61 %)
• 
  ✅ NOV Inc (NOV) $N1OV34
• 
  ✅ NVIDIA (NVDA) $NVDA (-0,05 %)
• 
  ✅ Cable One (CABO) $CABO (-1,39 %)

Em relação ao mercado cripto, apesar da baixa gigantesca deste mês, não vejo nenhuma grande oportunidade no momento. Vou aguardar para decifrar melhor os acontecimentos e analisar o que fazer no futuro.

A volatilidade está extrema, e prefiro manter uma abordagem estratégica antes de qualquer decisão.

Agora, o foco está em balancear os aportes e aproveitar as melhores oportunidades que surgirem.

O mercado continua incerto e volátil, mas isso também abre portas para novas entradas estratégicas.

Vamos ver como este mês corre e quantos pontos percentuais conseguimos alcançar com esta abordagem! 🚀📢

🔍 E vocês, como têm gerido esta volatilidade? Alguma destas ações faz parte da vossa carteira? Partilhem a vossa visão! 💬📊

Hi there!

First off, I want to introduce myself. I'm a 24-year-old who's spent about two years diving into the world of investing. Though I’m just starting, I’d love to share a bit of my journey with you all.

My Beginnings

I’ve always had a unique approach to life and investments, which often feels different from most people I know. I started working young, driven by a goal to save €10,000. For someone living in Portugal, where building wealth takes time, this felt like a mountain to climb.

Unfortunately, at 18, I fell victim to a scam and lost €5,000 in my first year of trying to invest. It was a harsh lesson. My family thought I was naive for believing I could become wealthy quickly through trading. They’d never ventured into investments, so I was forging a path on my own.

Hitting Rock Bottom

After the scam, I swore off markets altogether. I moved to Spain to try earning more, but the isolation and inability to grow my savings left me depressed. It was during this tough time that my boss introduced me to Bitcoin.

He told me: “Diogo, buy Bitcoin. This could change your life. Don’t spend on cars or houses—invest in this!” At first, I thought he was crazy. Bitcoin was volatile, and I couldn’t imagine risking so much. But his passion stayed with me, and I began paying attention to the market.

Turning Things Around

In 2022, I returned to Portugal, reuniting with family, friends, and a sense of purpose. I found a stable job—not well-paying, but it gave me a foundation to rebuild. Slowly, I started meeting people active in the markets, shifting my mindset, and planning my future more thoughtfully.

I set a goal to save €10,000 again, this time with a clear strategy. By saving at least €200 a month and focusing on long-term growth (like investing in the S&P 500), I envisioned reaching €1 million by the time I turn 40.

Lessons and Progress

By the end of 2023, I came close to my goal, saving €9,500. My biggest win was investing in NVIDIA ($NVDA (-0,05 %) ), which gave me a 55% return in less than a year!

In 2024, I made another significant investment—this time in myself. I used some savings to fix my teeth, boosting my confidence. Despite that expense, I managed to grow my investments to €23,000 by year's end.

My Current Strategy

This year, I’m focusing on stocks and crypto that are undervalued but have strong potential for growth. My portfolio includes:

$VOW3 (-0,28 %)

$PAH3 (-0,19 %)

$NESN (+0,12 %)

$VALE (+0,71 %)

$BAYN (-0,44 %)

$MAN

$JMT (-0,04 %)

$BTI (-0,45 %)

$CABO (-1,39 %)

$GMAB (-0,11 %)

$MAERSK A (-0,61 %)

$TMV (+1,84 %)

$BMRN (-0,78 %)

$EGL

$ABEV (+0 %)

Cripto:

$ETH (+3,93 %)

$DOT (+5,63 %)

$FET (+5,83 %)

$NEAR (+4,61 %)

$TIA.N (+5,23 %)

$APTOS

Final Thoughts

My goal is to end this year with €40,000 invested, to be able to get half of it into the real state,It’s ambitious, but I’ve learned that persistence and patience can yield great rewards.

I’ll keep you all updated on my journey. Best of luck to everyone on yours!

Diogo Cordas

Upside ⬆️

- OMV +2.0% (EU gas prices rises as Russian gas transit through Ukraine halted) $OMV (+0,26 %)

- Maersk +1.5% (sees no progress on US port strike talks as Jan 15th deadline nears) $MAERSK A (-0,61 %)

- Tecnicas Reunidas +6.5% (contract award) $TRE (+0 %)

- Intrum +15.5% (US bankruptcy court approves Intrum's Chapter 11 plan - press) $INTRUM (-4,13 %)

- Vestas Wind Systems +3.0% (multiple orders over previous couple days while market closed) $VWS (+9,95 %)

- Vodafone +0.5% (Swisscom closes Vodafone Italia deal) $VOD (+0,04 %)

Downside ⬇️

- Volkswagen -2.0% (CEO interview) $VOW (+1,75 %)

- Barratt Redrow -0.5%, Persimmon -1.0%, Taylor Wimpey -0.5%, Bellway -2.0%, Crest Nicholson -0.5% (UK Nationwide Dec House Prices above estimates for MoM and YoY)

- Haleon -0.5% (US FDA announces Jan 9, 2025 Webcast to discuss Key Findings from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study to Inform FDA’s Regulatory Activities)

Zusammenfassung Earnings heute morgen:

$STLAM (-1,72 %) | Stellantis Q3 2024 Earnings

Net Rev. €32.96B (est €35.94B)

Still Sees FY Adj. Oper Margin 5.5% To 7% (est 7.11%)

May Pursue Share Buyback Next Year: CFO

Backs FY Guidance

$$MAERSK A (-0,61 %)
| AP Moeller Maersk Q3 2024 Earnings

Rev $15.76B ($15.12B)

EBITDA $4.80B (est $3.96B)

Ocean Rev. $11.11B (est $10.57B)

Loaded Freight Rate ($/FFE) $3,236 (est $2,850)

Still Sees FY Underlying EBITDA $11B To $11.5B

$TTE (-0,21 %)
| TotalEnergies Q3 2024 Earnings

Adj EPS $1.74 (est $1.83)

Adj Net $4.07B (est $4.27B)

Adj. EBITDA $10.05B (est $10.42B)

Production 2.41M BOE/D (est 2.41M)

DACF $7.01B (est $7.5B)

$SHEL (+0,42 %)
| Shell Q3 2024 Earnings

Adj EPS $0.96 (est $0.85)

Adj Profit $6.03B (est $5.39B)

Net Debt $35.3B (est $37.9B)

Oil & Gas Output 2.80M BOE/D)

Cash Flow From OPS $14.68B (est $12.08B)

Announces A Share Buyback Program Of $3.5B

$CARL A (-0,39 %) | Carlsberg Q3 2024 Earnings

Rev. DKK20.48B (est DKK20.6B)

Organic Rev. +1.3% (est +2.57%)

Organic Volume Growth -0.2% (est +1.34%)

$STM (+0,72 %) | STMicroelectronics Q3 24 Earnings:

- Net Rev $3.35B (est $3.24B)

- Sees FY Net Rev $13.27B, Saw $13.2B To $13.7B

- Sees Q4 Net Rev $3.32B (est 3.38B)

- Sees Q4 FY24, Q1 FY25 Rev Decline Above Seasonality

$ING (+0,51 %) | ING Q3 24 Earnings:

- Net Income EU1.88B (est 1.69B)

- Net Interest Income EU3.69B (est EU3.83B)

- Loan-Loss Provision EU336M (est EU340.8M)

- Announces EU2.5B Shares Buy Back

$BNP (+0,81 %) | BNP Paribas Q3 24 Earnings:

- Net Income EU2.87B (est EU2.89B)

- Rev EU11.94B (est EU11.98B)

- Loan-Loss Provision EU729M (est EU835.6M)

- FICC Sales & Trading Rev EU1.20B (est EU1.06B)

$GLE (+0,56 %) | Societe Generale Q3 24 Earnings:

- Oper Expenses EU4.33B (est EU4.41B)

- Net Banking Income EU6.84B (est EU6.6B)

- Net Income EU1.37B (est EU1.27B)

- Equities Rev EU880M (est EU857.4M)