Maersk Action Forum

10.09.2024

Oracle exceeds expectations +
JPMorgan resumes Hapag-Lloyd with 'Underweight' + China's exports rise faster than expected + Apple presentation hardly moves

Oracle $ORCL (+2,18 %) reported first-quarter results late Monday that beat Wall Street estimates, driven by the strength of the software maker's cloud offerings. Adjusted earnings per share rose to $1.39 in the three months through August from $1.19 a year earlier, beating the consensus of $1.33 polled by Capital IQ. Revenue rose 7% to $13.31 billion, beating analysts' estimate of $13.24 billion. Shares rose 7.9% in after-hours trading. Cloud services and license support revenue rose 10% to $10.52 billion, while the cloud licenses and on-premise licenses segment grew 7% to $870 million. The hardware and services segments recorded declines of 8% and 9% respectively. Oracle's remaining performance obligations - future obligations from contractual relationships - increased 53% to a record $99 billion, which will accelerate revenue growth throughout fiscal 2025.

The US bank JPMorgan $JPM (+0,97 %) has increased the valuation of the shares of Hapag-Lloyd $HLAG (-2,26 %) with an "Underweight" rating and a price target of 85 euros. In the European transportation and logistics sector, analyst Alexia Dogani focuses on companies with strong competitive positions with high entry barriers and significant pricing power such as DHL $DHL (+0,1 %) and InPost $INPST (-2,55 %). She also likes companies such as DSV $DSV (+0,18 %) and Kuehne + Nagel $KNIN (-0,47 %)which have consolidated the market in order to improve cost development through economies of scale and leverage. On the other hand, she is skeptical about container shipping companies such as Moller-Maersk $MAERSK B (-0,33 %), ZIM $ZIM (-1,52 %) and Hapag-Lloyd. Dark clouds are gathering over them, as interest rates have peaked and the supply of capacity continues to increase.

A glimmer of hope for China's economic recovery: exports from the second-largest economy grew more strongly than expected in August. According to data from the Beijing customs authority, exports rose by 8.7 percent year-on-year to the equivalent of 309 billion US dollars (around 280 billion euros). This means that Chinese exports have increased for the fifth month in a row. Imports increased by 0.5 percent. Analysts had previously expected exports to increase by 6.6 percent, while they expected imports to rise by 2.5 percent.

In the context of the presentation of new AI-enabled iPhones and other innovations, the share price rose by Apple $AAPL (+0,65 %) (unchanged) were volatile within narrow limits, but turned slightly positive at the end. According to JP Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee, a large part of the new developments had already been leaked via leaks in the supply chain.

• iPhone 16 Pro (Max) & 16 (Plus): Larger batteries and the A18 (Pro) for the same price
• Apple AirPods 4: New design and ANC for the open in-ears
• Apple Watch 10: Thinner smartwatch with new OLED display and new water sensors
• Apple Watch: not an Ultra 3, but a black Ultra 2

Tuesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

17:00 Boeing deliveries 8/24

18:00 Nike AGM

Untimed: Gamestop Corporation quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

11:00 Jost Werke Capital Markets Day

Untimed: Renk Group Capital Markets Day

Economic data

• 04:00 CN: Foreign trade August trade balance PROGNOSE: +80.00 bn USD previous: +84.65 bn Euro Exports PROGNOSE: +6.6% yoy previous: +7.0% yoy Imports PROGNOSE: +2.5% yoy previous: +7.2% yoy
• 08:00 DE: Consumer prices (final) August PROGNOSE: -0.1% yoy/+1.9% yoy Preliminary: -0.1% yoy/+1.9% yoy Previous: +0.3% yoy/+2.3% yoy HICP PROGNOSE: -0.2% yoy/+2.0% yoy Preliminary: -0.2% yoy/+2.0% yoy Previous: +0.5% yoy/+2.6% yoy
• 08:00 UK: Labor market data August unemployment benefit recipients Unemployment rate 3 months (ILO) FORECAST: 4.2% previous: 4.2%
• 23:59 US: 3h to go until the TV debate between the candidates for the US presidency Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

Let's see where the journey takes us 😉

Probably too expensive and too late

Fewer and fewer shipping companies are sailing through the Suez Canal. The reason for this is the attacks by the Huthi rebels. The price of oil and freight rates are already rising.

Is this fueling inflation again? The exploding freight rates were one of the main reasons for inflation. Can the shipping companies repeat their record year 2022?

Do you have any thoughts on this?

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-67748605

https://m.focus.de/finanzen/news/rebellen-greifen-frachter-an-droht-naechster-preisschock-schiffer-meiden-suezkanal_id_259506340.html

$MAERSK A (-0,69 %)
$MAERSK B (-0,33 %)

$HLAG (-2,26 %)

$MSC

$600428

$MAERSK B (-0,33 %) the rise of the last two days is only due to the announcement of the fed to lower interest rates, or have I missed some other important news?

😄 I'm curious to see if it was a good idea yesterday (almost exactly at the low point) $HLAG (-2,26 %) and $MAERSK B (-0,33 %) to buy, or stupid 😄

$MAERSK A (-0,69 %)
$MAERSK B (-0,33 %)
$AMKBY (-0,68 %)

Has anyone here ever applied for the withholding tax refund from Denmark? I have applied for this in mid - late April but have not received anything back yet. No notification that an application has been received, no money, nothing. Does anyone have any experience? On google someone had written, he had only waited 4 weeks but much can not be found.

By the way, I needed a notice of tax residency in DE from the tax office and then they told me that I am now subject to income tax return because I own shares ... After 20 minutes on the phone with someone who was unfortunately not very competent, nothing has changed. Do I care then next year again drum that I am taken out of the duty hopefully again, for this year I do eh a..

Yesterday still big-headed rumgetönt - I no longer buy under 500 euros... no 24h later but again become weak. Was probably a frustration purchase because I $MAERSK B (-0,33 %) with my provider do not get into the depot.

Can anyone tell me the difference between the two? $MAERSK A (-0,69 %) and $MAERSK B (-0,33 %) except that the price differs by 20 euros, the same amount of dividend is distributed at the end of the month.

Regenerative methanol production and the real opportunities for CO2 reduction.

Dear Community,

Once again, the last hydrogen contribution was very well received. Thank you very much for the positive feedback!

What technical topic is close to your hearts that should be looked at more closely?

Today we are talking about the real opportunity to achieve rapid success in climate change and a practice that is already being used on a large scale today.

Methanolalso known to many perhaps as wood alcohol, is the simplest alcohol in chemistry.

Brief general background:

Methanol is a clear, colorless, flammable liquid with a typical alcoholic odor. It consists of carbon C, hydrogen H and oxygen O. Total CH3OH in chemical structural formula.

Methanol is notorious for being formed during alcoholic fermentation. However, it is better known through incidents of vacationers who enjoyed moonshine in southern vacation countries and subsequently had to struggle with signs of cloudiness or complete loss of eyesight. The human body processes methanol to the well-known formaldehyde, formerly contained in wall paints.

This results in the property therefore that with the alcoholic fermentation process mainly methanol, ethanol, thus the consumption alcohol and water develop. It is imperative that this mixture is properly separated!

Natural occurrence:

Methanol occurs naturally just as little as hydrogen. It is also always bound. It is contained in cotton plants, fruits and grasses in minimal concentrations, so that its extraction, i.e. separation, is not worthwhile.

What is methanol currently used for?

Methanol is an important raw material in the chemical industry. Important for us stock exchange traders above all the resulting synthesis to biodiesel or MTBE, the anti-knock agent for gasoline engines. Methanol also has the potential to generate electrical energy in a fuel cell, similar to hydrogen, but with even lower efficiency.

Historical background:

Methanol is again something typically German ...

In 1913, BASF was granted $BAS (-5,27 %) received a patent for a process to produce methanol. The basic material for this came from coal gasification. This process later became known as the "Winkler process". The principle behind it is the gasification of lignite by adding steam and air.

In the triumphant advance of natural gas, however, this process was superseded. Rightly so, because this process is extremely harmful to the environment and health. However, it is still used in China and South Africa.

In 1923, large-scale production began at the Leuna plants.

Something to think about: Today, by the way, only a tiny fraction of the global demand is produced in Germany. This production has been distributed mainly to Caribbean countries, as well as Latin America and, of course, China. Perhaps this is also a dependency that should be kept in mind, especially with regard to Chile and Argentina? During the last visit of our chancellor, Chile has found clear words on which side one would stand in case of a conflict between the USA and China ...

Production and chances for a fast CO2 reduction:

Quite simply, so that we can finally focus in the future speculations and applications of the future.

To produce methanol, you need carbon monoxide CO or carbon dioxide CO2.

With the addition of hydrogen H2, a mixture of dimethyl ether, the propellant in hair and paint spray, ethanol, i.e. pleasure alcohol, and methanol is produced in a reactor. This is thermally separated downstream.

But what does all this have to do with CO2 reduction, and why would we have such a good chance of rapid success here?

In the following, I refer mainly to the second reaction type, where CO2 and H2 are used, but I omit hydrogen, because this is a topic on its own and one could certainly explain the processes for H2 production in more detail, which again speak for an overvaluation of hydrogen.

Carbon dioxide CO2:

This greenhouse gas is an important feedstock for the methanol process. It is currently produced conventionally via steam reforming, i.e. H2 generation, and via partial oxidation, i.e. partial combustion.

There are strong efforts by the industry to make this process usable in order to greatly improve its own CO2 balance. The pioneers, in terms of investment, are above all Totalenergies $TTE (-2,14 %) and Thyssenkrupp $TKA (-3,23 %) . In the future, waste gases from the process are to be made usable and thus not released into the environment. Both oil refining and steel production produce huge amounts of CO2.

A second method of acting more sustainably would be the so-called CCU process, Carbon Capture and Utilization or CO2 utilization. In this process, gases containing CO2 are "filtered" from the air, compressed and thus made usable again for industrial purposes. Many industrial giants have adopted this method. Among them are the stock market darlings of RWE $RWE (+0,3 %) , OMV $OMV (-1,13 %) , HeidelbergMaterials $HEI (+1,13 %) and many more. The methodology became known on the stock exchange through the speculative share Aker CC $ACC (+1,08 %) .

The products from the process and the opportunities:

This hides real opportunities that are still trading far below their application area on the stock market, as the majority focus on electric and hydrogen.

Methanol:

Methanol is and will always be an important basic material for the chemical industry! The downstream products of formaldehyde and acetic acid, as well as their further processing, are too important for our modern way of life. In the beginning there is always methanol!

The entire range of M-fuels, which were already tested in the 80s, are methanol mixtures and are even permitted in the EU.

MAN, the VW subsidiary $VOW (-2,5 %) and the shipbuilding division HD-Hyundais $267250 have been cooperating for a long time on large engines running on methanol. Especially for the shipping industry. In the industry also gave $MAERSK B (-0,33 %) other large orders.

Indy cars in the USA and dragsters are powered by methanol.

Methanol produces significantly lower emissions than diesel and gasoline, and at the same time can be produced at near net zero, as described above.

The biggest methanol producers are Petronas $PCHEM , Methanex $MX (+1,55 %) and Mitsui $8031 (-0,64 %) .

Fuel cell:

A modified fuel cell can run on methanol. It is even more inefficient than hydrogen. But offers the advantage that you don't have to change methanol's state of aggregation to make it usable.

Of course, the downside to all the greatness of methanol is that to make truly "green" methanol, you would also have to use "green" hydrogen.

This is a complex issue that SFC Energy $F3C (-1,36 %) promised to address it.

Biodiesel:

The best-known downstream product of methanol is biodiesel. Last year on the stock market mainly through Verbio $VBK (-2,98 %) and CropEnergies $CE2 extremely high on the market.

At present, these are still subject to blending with fossil fuels, resulting in corresponding margins for biofuel producers.

DME, dimethyl ether:

Dimethyl ether is the hottest candidate as a diesel successor. Here, even small modifications can ensure operation. But why isn't this being done? The problem here is political, as it is only permitted as a biofuel if it is produced exclusively from biomass. One could therefore possibly rely here on a growing biogas market with regard to Envitec $ETG (+0 %) , Engie $ENGI (-0,18 %) , Greenvolts $GVOLT (-0,03 %) or similar. Whereby the use of biogas certainly offers better application possibilities than a diesel substitute.

Postscript:

The follow-on products should only illustrate once again the importance and the enormous market that methanol can bring as a raw material and energy carrier. If we now put this in relation to the market capitalizations with hydrogen shares, we should now speculate about whether hydrogen is valued too highly or whether methanol is perhaps weighted much too low according to its use.

What do you think?

Do you have any suggestions, questions or wishes?