Kühne + Nagel

CH0025238863

KNIN

KNIN

10.09.2024

Oracle exceeds expectations +
JPMorgan resumes Hapag-Lloyd with 'Underweight' + China's exports rise faster than expected + Apple presentation hardly moves

Oracle $ORCL (+1,31 %) reported first-quarter results late Monday that beat Wall Street estimates, driven by the strength of the software maker's cloud offerings. Adjusted earnings per share rose to $1.39 in the three months through August from $1.19 a year earlier, beating the consensus of $1.33 polled by Capital IQ. Revenue rose 7% to $13.31 billion, beating analysts' estimate of $13.24 billion. Shares rose 7.9% in after-hours trading. Cloud services and license support revenue rose 10% to $10.52 billion, while the cloud licenses and on-premise licenses segment grew 7% to $870 million. The hardware and services segments recorded declines of 8% and 9% respectively. Oracle's remaining performance obligations - future obligations from contractual relationships - increased 53% to a record $99 billion, which will accelerate revenue growth throughout fiscal 2025.

The US bank JPMorgan $JPM (+0,94 %) has increased the valuation of the shares of Hapag-Lloyd $HLAG (+0,24 %) with an "Underweight" rating and a price target of 85 euros. In the European transportation and logistics sector, analyst Alexia Dogani focuses on companies with strong competitive positions with high entry barriers and significant pricing power such as DHL $DHL (-1,71 %) and InPost $INPST (-0,31 %). She also likes companies such as DSV $DSV (-0,56 %) and Kuehne + Nagel $KNIN (-1,08 %)which have consolidated the market in order to improve cost development through economies of scale and leverage. On the other hand, she is skeptical about container shipping companies such as Moller-Maersk $MAERSK B (+1,46 %), ZIM $ZIM (+5,61 %) and Hapag-Lloyd. Dark clouds are gathering over them, as interest rates have peaked and the supply of capacity continues to increase.

A glimmer of hope for China's economic recovery: exports from the second-largest economy grew more strongly than expected in August. According to data from the Beijing customs authority, exports rose by 8.7 percent year-on-year to the equivalent of 309 billion US dollars (around 280 billion euros). This means that Chinese exports have increased for the fifth month in a row. Imports increased by 0.5 percent. Analysts had previously expected exports to increase by 6.6 percent, while they expected imports to rise by 2.5 percent.

In the context of the presentation of new AI-enabled iPhones and other innovations, the share price rose by Apple $AAPL (+2,87 %) (unchanged) were volatile within narrow limits, but turned slightly positive at the end. According to JP Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee, a large part of the new developments had already been leaked via leaks in the supply chain.

• iPhone 16 Pro (Max) & 16 (Plus): Larger batteries and the A18 (Pro) for the same price
• Apple AirPods 4: New design and ANC for the open in-ears
• Apple Watch 10: Thinner smartwatch with new OLED display and new water sensors
• Apple Watch: not an Ultra 3, but a black Ultra 2

Tuesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

17:00 Boeing deliveries 8/24

18:00 Nike AGM

Untimed: Gamestop Corporation quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

11:00 Jost Werke Capital Markets Day

Untimed: Renk Group Capital Markets Day

Economic data

• 04:00 CN: Foreign trade August trade balance PROGNOSE: +80.00 bn USD previous: +84.65 bn Euro Exports PROGNOSE: +6.6% yoy previous: +7.0% yoy Imports PROGNOSE: +2.5% yoy previous: +7.2% yoy
• 08:00 DE: Consumer prices (final) August PROGNOSE: -0.1% yoy/+1.9% yoy Preliminary: -0.1% yoy/+1.9% yoy Previous: +0.3% yoy/+2.3% yoy HICP PROGNOSE: -0.2% yoy/+2.0% yoy Preliminary: -0.2% yoy/+2.0% yoy Previous: +0.5% yoy/+2.6% yoy
• 08:00 UK: Labor market data August unemployment benefit recipients Unemployment rate 3 months (ILO) FORECAST: 4.2% previous: 4.2%
• 23:59 US: 3h to go until the TV debate between the candidates for the US presidency Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

$KNIN (-1,08 %) Kuehne+Nagel - Quarterly figures

Kuehne+Nagel shares started regular trading on Tuesday with slightly firmer prices after the publication of the half-year figures. The decline in profits published by the logistics specialist in the morning was roughly in line with expectations.

At around 9.20 a.m., the shares were trading 0.4 percent higher at CHF 265. This contrasts with a 0.09 percent decline in the SMI market as a whole. However, the Central Swiss company will not get rid of the red lantern in the current year.

According to analysts, there were no major surprises in the second quarter. The profit figures were a touch above most analysts' expectations. "The efficiency improvements are bearing fruit," one expert put it in a nutshell.

The second important takeaway: air freight volumes are picking up again significantly. Because the freight routes via the Red Sea have been disrupted, more and more customers are having the transportation times of their goods shortened by plane.

With regard to the outlook, the company is - as usual - not yet giving a clear picture. Some analysts see this as a dampening factor for the shares.

Kuehne+Nagel's shares have never really recovered since the drop in the share price caused by the figures at the end of February. And in view of the rapidly changing geopolitical climate, they are subject to strong mood swings. With a drop of a good 8 percent, the shares were the SMI laggards in 2024.

(Source: awp)

Key figures H1 2024 (comparison with H1 2023):

• Net salesCHF 11.6 billion (2023: CHF 12.7 billion, -9%)
• Gross profitCHF 4.3 billion (2023: CHF 4.6 billion, -8%)
• EBIT: CHF 778 million (2023: CHF 1,135 million, -32%)
• Earnings per share: CHF 4.74 (2023: CHF 7.21, -34%)
• Conversion rate: 18% (2023: 24%)
• Free cash flowCHF 40 million
• Cash and cash equivalents (net)CHF 657 million

Outlook per segment:

• Ocean Freight:
• Expansion of customer service with seven new locations
• Focus on small and medium-sized companies to increase service quality
• Contract logistics:
• Expansion of the e-commerce business with new fulfillment centers in Italy, the USA and Dubai
• Healthcare:
• Introduction of a new solution for temperature-controlled sea freight containers to reduce CO2 emissions
• Digitalization:
• Accelerated implementation of AI-based solutions to increase efficiency
• Expansion of the cloud data platform and the digital twin to make better use of data

Happy investing

GG

(Switzerland) - The most important dates for this trading week

This week is the best of the year for real number crunchers: More than forty listed companies will present their half-year report. These include small companies such as the Walliser Kantonalbank (WKBN), but also big names on the Swiss market such as $ROG (-0,68 %) and $NESNE / $NESN (-0,89 %) . Naturally, observers will be keeping a close eye on the outlook for the second half of the year.

On Monday, only the climate specialist Belimo $B9H will report on the first half of the year.

Seven companies have announced their reports for Tuesday. These are the logistics company Kuehne + Nagel $KNIN (-1,08 %)
, the chocolate manufacturer Lindt & Sprüngli
$LISN (-0,44 %) and the fragrance producer Givaudan $GIVN (-0,09 %)
, also reporting Logitech $LOGN (+0,79 %), Dätwyler $DAE (+1,88 %)
, Temenos $TEMN (-0,67 %) and the Valais Cantonal Bank ($WKBN). At Lindt & Sprüngli $LISN (-0,44 %) will be watching for comments on the high cocoa prices. At Kühne + Nagel $KNIN (-1,08 %) the renewed increase in the complexity of sea transportation due to the threat to shipping in the Red Sea could have an initial positive effect.

On Wednesday, nine companies will give an insight into their finances. For example, the goods inspector SGS
$SGSN (-1,77 %) and also Bobst ($BOBNN) , So $ALSN (+0,53 %)
Cembra Money Bank $CMBN (-0,63 %)
, Cicor $CICN (+1,62 %)
Cosmo Pharmaceuticals $COPN (+0,91 %)
EFG International $EFGN (+0,99 %)

and Medacta $MOVE (+0,84 %)
. At SGS $SGSN (-1,77 %) it is to be expected that, as in previous quarters, decent sales growth will be offset by negative exchange rate effects.

Thursday is the highlight of the interim reporting season: a total of sixteen company reports are on the agenda. Among them are Nestlé $NESN (-0,89 %)
, Roche $ROG (-0,68 %)
, Lonza
$LONN (+1,29 %) and Julius Baer $BAER (+1,22 %)
, but also Bachem $BANB, Bucher $BUCN (+2,69 %)
, Galderma $GALD
, Autoneum $AUTN (+1,47 %)
, Bellevue $BBN (+0,14 %)
, Calida $CALN (-0,59 %)
, Idorsia $IDIA (-0,85 %)
, Leonteq $LEON (+0,45 %)
, the Graubündner Kantonalbank $GRKP (-0,28 %)
, Meier Tobler $MTG (+1,72 %)
, StarragTornos $STGN and Valiant $VATN (-0,38 %)
. At Nestlé $NESN (-0,89 %) the question is whether a return to positive growth rates can be achieved.

Many listed companies have once again announced their half-year figures for Friday. They include Holcim $HOLN (+2,09 %)
Sulzer $SUN (+2,69 %)
, Vontobel $VONN (+0,6 %)
, Forbo $FORN (+2,69 %)
, APG $APGN (-0,24 %)
, Zehnder $ZEHN (+0,36 %)
, Orell Füssli $OFN (-0,37 %)
, Lem $LEHN (+4,39 %)
, AMS Osram $AMS (+4,52 %) and BB Biotech $BION (+1,21 %) and the SIX as the operator of the Swiss stock exchange. The industrial group Sulzer $SUN (+2,69 %) should deliver a positive surprise after a strong performance that has been ongoing for some time.

Have a good week everyone!

GG

The first half of the year is already over, so here's a quick look at my portfolio:

The overall performance doesn't look too bad for 1HY, with realized gains already accounting for a large part. The delisting of $OHB (-0,66 %) and thus the sale of my position is most noticeable. Nice $OHB (-0,66 %) profits over time, I would have liked to have kept them. But who knows, at some point they might come back like $Renk, for example

Net dividends are at last year's level. Many dividends were reduced in May (e.g. $SIX2 (+3,5 %) without special dividend, $KNIN (-1,08 %) adjustment) or, as in the case of OHB or $Baywa, no longer paid due to sales. Some payments were also simply postponed to June. Over the year as a whole, an increase of 9-10% should be possible.

The savings plans I started in 04/2022 are still running. Some positions are full and others have been added over time. My target here is 5000tsd $/€/CHF per individual position, with the exception of ETFs which are still running. The overall performance here is ok, it has been significantly better in the past. The dividends of the equivalent of 2700$ in two years are of course great and ensure additional purchases. Conclusion: in future I will save less in individual stocks, but with higher amounts (currently 150, then more like 300-500 depending on the situation) I want to remain a little more flexible and prefer to buy in good times.

At the moment, CHF 2750 a month is invested in fixed savings plans and CHF 400 goes into an employee share scheme with my employer. It will stay that way and then we'll see where we stand at the end of the year.

Happy weekend!

The dividend concert continues.

From $KNIN (-1,08 %) there will be slightly less dividend this year. The corona bonus will not be paid this year. The logistics environment is probably still very challenging, hence "only" one payment as in 2022.

Today there was also the $FNTN (-0,22 %) payment, which was slightly increased to €619 (gross=net).

Freenet is rather negligible from a performance perspective over the years. In 8 years 16% price gains. Well ... but ... In the same period, around 4000€ net dividends have been added. Here I often ask myself the question, should I rather invest the money in more growth? Every year in May at the latest, I'm glad to still have them in my portfolio.

What do you think, keep it and continue to collect dividends 💰 or get rid of it and switch to a potential price rocket 🚀 (or several)?