I challenge you to critique my current holdings. Any critique is welcome. Go!
Here are my current holdings:
Postes
474Already at a plus of 3% or only at 5% or more?
What do the wise among you say?
I know your DCA thesis, but I'll tell you what you already know: It will go down again.
I'd rather suspend the savings plans, build up cash again and wait until it crashes again, when I can make individual purchases or set up savings plans again.
Another question that has nothing to do with this article. Why is $GIS (+1,04 %) going so badly? Have we already seen the low point?
💡 Core Investment Thesis
ASML holds a near-monopoly in EUV lithography, making it indispensable for advanced AI chips and semiconductor innovation. Despite geopolitical turbulence and tariff uncertainty, its record €63bn order backlog and technological moat position it for long-term growth. However, a 21% valuation premium and China exposure (25% of sales) demand cautious optimism amid trade tensions.
📊 Financial Health & Performance
Q1 2025 Highlights
2025 Outlook
🌍 Governmental & Legislative Catalysts/Risks
Tailwinds
Headwinds
💷 Dividends & Shareholder Returns
📈 Growth Projections & Valuation
2025–2030 Outlook
Valuation Metrics
Metric ASML Sector Avg
Share Price €747.07 –
P/E (TTM) 29.62x 25x
Price/Sales 8.39x 2.5x
Analyst Target €904.40 (avg) Range: €578–€1,100
Rationale: Premium pricing reflects ASML’s irreplaceable EUV technology, but tariffs could compress margins by 500bps.
⚠️ Key Risks
Trade War Escalation: 20% revenue exposed to U.S.-China tensions; tariff hikes may erode 2025 EPS by 8–10%.
Execution Delays: Customers (e.g., Intel, TSMC) postponing equipment orders due to semiconductor overcapacity.
Valuation Sensitivity: High P/E vulnerable if AI demand slows or High NA adoption underperforms.
Regulatory Overreach: Stricter EU export controls on lithography tools to China.
🎯 Investment Recommendation
Accumulate on Dips Below €700 (3–5-year horizon):
Bottom Line: ASML is a foundational bet on AI and semiconductor sovereignty, but its premium valuation requires geopolitical vigilance. The €63bn backlog provides resilience, while tariff clarity could unlock significant upside. Monitor Q2 2025 bookings for demand confirmation.
Is ASML’s 29.62x P/E justified given its EUV monopoly and 55.62% ROE?
How will U.S. tariffs reshape Europe’s semiconductor ambitions?
Can dividend growth offset low yield for income-focused portfolios?
Data as of 29 May 2025 | British English conventions applied ("labour", "favourable", "centred")
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Conduct your own due diligence. Past performance ≠ future results.
When I‘m screening markets for my investable universe I look for high-quality compounders with:
In detail I’m screening for:
Here are my current holdings:
Today I‘m sharing with you my main portfolio. This doesn’t include any ETF investments and crypto currencies / gold etc. since I want to focus my presence on getquin on stock-picking.
Read my 3-part portfolio strategy posts to get the full picture - here are just the main pillars of what I‘m doing:
I like to divide my holdings into „core holdings“ (forever stocks) and „trend picks“ (2030 stocks) as follows:
Core Holdings (“Forever Stocks”):
Growth Picks (“2030 Stocks”):
I use the 7 Powers framework from the book “7 Powers: The Foundations of Business Strategy” by Hamilton Helmer. It’s a killer framework for understanding why some businesses create lasting value and compound returns over time.
Each “Power” is a sustainable strategic advantage that lets a company generate outsized returns for a long time. I ask the 7 questions for each stock I am considering to buy.
1. Counter-Positioning
2. Scale Economies
3. Switching Costs
4. Network Effects
5. Branding
6. Cornered Resource
7. Process Power
If I had to chose one, Network effects would be the most important one for me.
Here are my current holdings:
We (around 40 people from SW development) trundled into a bar after work last week and wanted to round off the evening in a relaxed atmosphere. Instead of 2 beers, there were of course significantly more and the topic of our operational business was over relatively quickly, in the end of course (once again) we only talked about AI and the discussion hype/sustainability and how each individual can benefit from it (many do without any company insurance, prefer to receive an annual bonus and invest it in the stock market).
In the end (8 beers later) there was relative agreement that it is
a) it is a megatrend with a tailwind (comparable to the internet or smartphones back then)
b) AI will change every industry (and in my opinion very quickly)
c) targeted investments will lead to significant increases in value in 5-10 years.
What has left us all with questions is the impact on the labor market. Entire industries will look completely different in the future; instead of people, there will be robotics and perhaps a handful of people monitoring everything. Where will that lead? Tax systems need to be rethought (loss of jobs = loss of wage tax and social security contributions), the education system needs to be revolutionized and so on. Where are we heading? AI user tax? Digital value-added taxation?
Very exciting with our political leaders and little hope :D
Of course, this is all minimally frightening, but it also offers us all incredible opportunities.
To return to the core issue: I think we all have an opportunity here to build massive wealth. My portfolio is extremely tech-heavy, so I'm still betting on the big players ($NVDA (+3,11 %) , $TSM (+2,17 %) , $ASML (+0,23 %) - entire value chain for chip development), $GOOGL (-0,64 %) , $META (-0,14 %) . $AMZN (-0,2 %) and also a few riskier ones like $PLTR (+1,91 %) , $SMCP, $NOW (+0,38 %) etc.).
Quantum computing would of course be the next big highlight, but that's another story.
What do you think about it? How will AI shape our generations, what social impact will it have and where are you investing?
LG Max
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