After more than 25 years of negotiations, the EU and the South American economic alliance Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay) have concluded a historic free trade agreement. This creates one of the largest free trade zones in the world - with over 700 million people and a combined economic area worth around 22 trillion USD.

This agreement could trigger global economic and stock market effects - for companies, industries and investors.

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🛃🚢 What will happen to the Mercosur agreement?

• Tariffs on up to 91% of EU exports and 92% of Mercosur exports are to be gradually eliminated.
• The aim is to create a larger single market, better market access, simplified rules and more stable trading conditions between Europe and South America.
• Until now, high tariffs have applied to cars (approx. 35%), machinery (14-20%) and chemical products (up to 18%).

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📊 Possible effects on the stock market

📈 1. industries with strong exports benefit from higher demand

Europe can sell its products more easily in South America:

• 👩‍🏭 Cars & car parts
• 🏭 Mechanical engineering
• 🧪 Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
• 🪄 Electronics & high-tech

The elimination of customs duties and fewer trade barriers will increase the margins and competitiveness of these industries.

Possible examples of Frofiteurs:

• VW $VOW (-0,85 %) BMW $BMW (-0,26 %) Daimler $DTG (-0,11 %)
• Siemens $SIE (-1,59 %)
• BASF $BAS (+0,56 %) Covestro $1COV (+0,08 %)
• SAP $SAP (-1,38 %) , ASML $ASML (+1,15 %)

➡️ Expected share price impetus from higher export revenues and capped production costs.

_________________________

🍖 2. agricultural & food sector in focus

The agricultural business is also becoming more closely networked on both sides:

• Tariffs on wine, oil, cheese, dairy products and luxury foods are being reduced or gradually created.
• EU producers will gain greater market access in South America; conversely, South American agricultural exports (e.g. beef, sugar) will have better access to the EU.

Possible beneficiaries:

• Nestlé $NESN (-2,32 %) Danone $BN (+0,15 %)
• Heineken $HEIA (+1,1 %) AB InBev $ABI (-0,84 %)
• FrieslandCampina $FCEPL

⚠️ However, critics point out that price pressure on local farmers* also arises and environmental risks can increase, for example due to cheaper imports.

_________________________

🚗 3. raw materials & energy: medium to long-term effects

Mercosur countries export large quantities of raw materials:

• Soy, sugar, coffee, ethanol, grain
• Brazil is also a major supplier of crude oil and minerals

One of the aims of the agreement is more stable commodity trade with fewer tariffs, which can influence commodity prices and move the shares of commodity and energy companies.

Possible beneficiaries:

• Vale $VALE3 (+0,3 %) Petrobras $PETR3 (+1,72 %)
• Bunge $BG (+1,38 %) , ADM $ADM (+1,79 %)

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🏦 4. finance & services sector

The agreement also facilitates:

• Market access for financial services
• Opening of telecom and transportation markets
• Opening of public procurement to EU suppliers

➡️ This could strengthen banks, insurers and logistics companies that operate across borders.

Possible beneficiaries:

• Allianz $ALV (+0,01 %) Deutsche Bank $DBK (-0,94 %)
• DHL/Deutsche Post $DHL (-0,1 %) Kuehne + Nagel $KNIN (+1,79 %)

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🔄 Short-term market risks

Not everything is automatically positive:

• 🇪🇺 Agricultural protests in Europe show resistance to cheap imports.
• Political uncertainties remain - many parliaments need to ratify.
• Sectors with low competitiveness could come under price pressure.

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📌 Conclusion

The Mercosur agreement could be an issue with far-reaching effects:

✅ Strong export industry gains new sales markets

✅ Agricultural and luxury food sector gains sales opportunities

✅ Financial and service sector benefits from market expansion

✅ Raw material exporting countries in South America could become more integrated

⚠️ At the same time, there are risks for local producers and price distortions that could have a regional impact on share prices

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Question for you: What is your opinion on the agreement? And in which sectors or listed companies do you see the biggest winners in the long term?

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Sources:

- 🌎🤝 Mercosur-Freihandelsabkommen zwischen EU & Mercosur unterzeichnet – größte Freihandelszone weltweit

- 💶📈 Wirtschaftliche Chancen für EU-Exporteure und Importeure durch Zollerleichterungen

- ⚙️🚗 Branchenanalysen mit Zollabbau-Effekten für Maschinen, Autos, Chemie etc.

- 🌾🥩 Agrar- und Rohstoff-Impakte durch neue Marktchancen und Quotenregelungen

$RI (+0,33 %)
$DGE (+0,69 %)
$CARL B (-0,53 %)
$HEIA (+1,1 %)
$ASBHY
$ABI (-0,84 %)

Hey guys, I've had a look at the current situation surrounding alcohol stocks and would like your opinion on it.

The current valuation of alcohol stocks reminds me a lot of the tobacco industry a few years ago. Back then, many stocks were trading at all-time lows. Anyone who invested back then was even ridiculed.

Today, I see a similar pattern with alcohol stocks: changes in consumption, regulatory pressure, etc . The question is: is this a comparable opportunity to the one we experienced in the tobacco industry, or are the structural differences too serious this time?

I hope it's an exciting look at two companies away from $KO (-0,45 %) , $PEP (-0,35 %) and $ABI (-0,84 %) it's about $2502 (-1,43 %) and $TSGTF . Which company would you choose?

Duel of the giants - Which share will win the race?

https://youtu.be/shhoPXpYUO8

Many breweries now do a large part of their business with non-alcoholic beers and even schnapps producers such as Berentzen
$BEZ (+0,29 %) also want to score points with new non-alcoholic mixed drinks.

Producers of alcoholic beverages have been punished on the stock market in recent months. Anheuser-Busch $ABI (-0,84 %) is down a good ten percent on the previous year. The brewery group owns brands such as Budweiser, Corona, Beck's and Löwenbräu. At its competitor Heineken
$HEIA (+1,1 %) is in a similar position, down seven percent over the past twelve months. Also Molson Coors
$TAP (-1,45 %) is also a good three percent below its value a year ago.

If you look at the past few weeks, you can see that the industry may have just managed to reverse the trend. Molson Coors is up a good six percent since the beginning of the year, Anheuser-Busch is even up over seven percent and Heineken has gained 17 percent since the beginning of the year.

Analysts from the broker eToro believe that the breweries' switch to non-alcoholic products and premium beers may still offer an opportunity: "The transformation has not yet been reflected in the share prices," they write. And: "The companies generate stable cash flows, often pay attractive dividends and benefit from a largely crisis-proof demand."

Source (excerpt) & image: Welt, 26.02.25

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 🗞️

𝗘𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗶𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗜𝗣𝗢 / 𝗢𝗵𝗻𝗲 𝗛𝗮𝗹𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗳𝗮𝗵𝗿 𝗶𝗰𝗵 𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗵𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗿 / 𝗠𝗲𝗵𝗿 𝗠𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗸𝗮𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲 𝗮𝘂𝗳 𝗱𝗲𝗺 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝘁 / 𝗗𝗮𝘀 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗲 𝗛𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗻

𝗜𝗣𝗢𝘀 🔔

Fluence Energy - The issue price is $28, above the price range of $21 to $24. This puts the joint venture between Siemens ($SIEGY (-1,62 %)) and AES ($AES (-0,32 %)) raised approximately 1.01 billion euros in the IPO. This gives an enterprise value of $4.6 billion, valuing Siemens' stake at $1.6 billion. Fluence Energy produces giant lithium-ion batteries that play a major role in renewable energy storage.

𝗘𝘅-𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 📅

As of today, A. O. Smith Corporation ($3SM (-0,66 %)), Carrier ($4PN (-0,15 %)), Ferguson ($FERG), Genesis Energy ($GEL), Levi Strauss & Co. ($LV2B (+0,57 %)), Morgan Stanley ($DWD (+1,11 %)), Signature Bank ($TQJ), Signet Jewelers ($SZ2 (+0,98 %)) and UnumProvident ($UUM (-1,61 %)) traded ex-dividend.

𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗹𝘀𝘇𝗮𝗵𝗹𝗲𝗻 📈

The reporting season is in full swing and today, among others, Anheuser-Busch InBev ($1NBA (-0,84 %)), Airbus Group ($AIR (-1,78 %)A), Amazon ($AMZ (+1,37 %)), Apple ($APC (+0,17 %)), Caterpillar ($CAT1 (+0,33 %)), Hochtief ($HOT (+0,13 %)), Linde ($LIN), MasterCard ($M41 (-1,08 %)), Merck & Co. ($6MK (-1,16 %)), Moody's ($DUT (+0,78 %)), Panasonic Corp. ($MAT1 (+0,65 %)), Sanofi ($SNW (-0,21 %)), Royal Dutch Shell ($R6C), Sony ($SON1 (-1,51 %)), Starbucks ($SRB (-0,92 %)), Volkswagen ($VOW3 (-1,71 %)) and Wacker Chemie ($WCH (-0,94 %)) presented their figures.

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 🏛️

VW ($VOW3 (-1,71 %)) - Due to shortages of electronic components and semiconductors, VW has to cut back. Despite red figures in the last quarter at Volkswagen Passenger Cars, Skoda and Seat, the group continues to adhere to its annual targets, as the premium brands Porsche and Audi perform comparatively well. Compared with the same period last year, profits from July to September fell 12 percent to 2.8 billion euros. As with most other automakers, the scarce semiconductors are being used where they promise the most return. As a result, the premium brands Audi and Porsche are not feeling the chip shortage as much as the volume brands.

Sanofi ($SNW (-0,21 %)) - Business at French pharmaceuticals group Sanofi is going from strength to strength. As a result of the better third quarter, management is once again raising the group's annual targets. Compared to the previous year, sales of 10.4 billion euros were generated, which corresponds to an increase of 10 percent. The neurodermatitis drug Dupixent, as well as over-the-counter medicines and the vaccination business, are driving growth. Profit amounted to 2.3 billion euros, 19 percent more than in the same period of the previous year.

𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 💎

Shiba Inu ($SHIB) - The meme coin has caused a strong stir due to its huge price increase in recent weeks. The coin broke its all-time high again and currently stands at $0.00006743 and a market capitalization of $35.2 billion. For a short time, it even made it to 9th place among the largest cryptocurrencies, overtaking even the legendary Dogecoin. The price of the new meme coin could rise even further as the trading volume could increase even more. The launch of an original $SHIB-NFT series called Shiboshi's could also push the price even higher. These are 10,000 individual pixel images of Shiba-Inus (see image). The cheapest of these NFTs are currently selling on Opensea for the equivalent of $7,480.37.

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