Hi folks,

I have just $VOW (-0,15 %) , $MBG (-1,31 %) and $BMW (-0,12 %) regarding cash flow here on getquin. I noticed that they are in the red. Last year they were still in the black, all several billion euros. What does that mean?

Donald Trump has made the headlines again! 🚗💰 At a press conference, he announced that he plans to impose tariffs of 25 percent on imported cars. The exact details are to follow in April, but the direction is clear: more costs for imported vehicles!

This could be an exciting turnaround for the automotive industry. Anyone who thinks that the tariffs are only aimed at European cars could be in for a surprise. Trump has hinted that other regions could also be affected. And that would not only be a shock for manufacturers, but also for consumers.

The new tariffs could fuel inflation again and stock markets often react sensitively to such news. How do you think this will affect $TSLA (-4,32 %) , $VOW (-0,15 %) or $BMW (-0,12 %) impact? 🤔

The US currently has a 2.5% tariff on car imports from the EU - a big difference compared to the EU's 10% tariff on US imports. Is this the start of a new trade crisis or a necessary step for the US economy? Let's discuss it!

I have made changes to my stock portfolio, on the one hand after further analyzing my positions. I appreciate the feedback 🫶

❌ I have decided to sell:

$WMT (-2,31 %)
$ITX (-2,84 %) partially at 40%.

$AMZN (-2,39 %)
$BMW (-0,12 %) at 100%.

The main reasons are in the case of the first 2 (Inditex y Walmart) make up too large a part of my portfolio and I think there are better investments to make at this time, besides both are at or very close to their historical highs and after analyzing their fundamentals I have noticed that they are somewhat overvalued🔝.

(They are still part of my portfolio and in case of corrections I will always be able to repurchase)

In the case of Amazon after analyzing it has had a great growth but in numbers it seems too expensive 🫰

(I have preferred to ensure profits although I do not rule out a future purchase at a fairer price).

On the other hand BMW was not as good an idea as I had in my head at the beginning and after a 6% rise in a very short time I have decided to take it out of the way ⏱️

(I think there are much better investments out there and besides it is a sector in which I don't see good forecasts for the long term 🤔)

✅ On the other hand I have decided to buy:

$META (-1,11 %)
$DHER (-3,81 %)
$GOOGL (-2,28 %)

I personally believe that Meta is a company with a long way to go and despite being at historical highs its fundamentals are quite good compared to other companies of its size 👏👌.

As for Google after an 11% drop from highs I have seen it as a good opportunity to buy back at lower prices 🤑

Finally there is my bet with Delivery Hero which has not yet generated profits but is a company that I consider undervalued compared to what it could be worth in the future and is also a good company to diversify in European and emerging markets 🇪🇺🇨🇳

Hi, I'd like to hear your opinions on my portfolio.

I also welcome your suggestions for etfs in 2025 with stable growth and that pay dividends. I'm analyzing this ETF to invest in the near future $JEGP (+0,05 %)

My focus is to have good assets that pay dividends and over time be able to refresh my investments with those same dividends. This way I can also get a good average price depending on the ups and downs of the market in the long term.

Since November 2024, I've been investing in shares such as $KO (+2,3 %)
$STAG (+0,45 %)
$VZ (+1,11 %)
$VICI (+2,65 %)
$O (+1,37 %)
$PZZA (-1,3 %)
$BMW (-0,12 %)
$T (+2,01 %) etc.

As for cryptos, I'm betting on Solana and Xrp.

In my opinion, these are two assets that could increase in value over the long term.

I have Solana in coinbase, which currently pays 8%, thus also generating recurring payments.

So at the moment I have 80% in shares and reits, and I also want to acquire etfs.

And 20% in cryptos.

Happy 2025 to everyone and good investments!

DAX reaches new all-time high again 🇩🇪📈💶👑. The left, trade unions and Wahra Sagenknecht would say that the stock market is a casino and a game of chance. Some people just always want to be wrong. Samsung Galaxy Watch 7 Which German shares do you have and how have they performed? #dax
#dax40
$LYY7 (-0,59 %)
$SIE (-0,45 %)
$ALV (-0,14 %)
$SAP (-1,87 %)
$VOW (-0,15 %)
$BMW (-0,12 %)
$P911 (+0,35 %)
$RHM (-1,89 %)
$ENR (-4,27 %)
$AIR (-3,2 %)
$DTE (+0,67 %)
$DBK (+0,12 %)
$DHL (+0,55 %)
$CBK (-0,9 %)
$MBG (-1,31 %)
$PAH3 (+0,48 %)

I think Toyota Prius but Mercedes also good, BMW too. Race perhaps the strongest.

Others less good.

Unfortunately Subaru also very very weak.

What is happening with Hyundai ADR? Lies DEAD in my depot.

Renault and Stellantis also quite weak. VW slightly better but not good.

Ferrari is very strong but not really a car stock.

Porsche Holding, interesting.

Here is a photo of my beautiful family carriage

$7203 (-0,72 %)

$MBG (-1,31 %)

$BMW (-0,12 %)

$7270 (+2,96 %)

$STLAM (-0,34 %)

$RNO (-1,67 %)

$RACE (-0,5 %)

(2-3min reading time, own opinion)

In recent years, BYD ($1211 (+2,45 %) ) China's leading manufacturer of electric vehicles, has significantly expanded its presence on the European market. With strategic investments and a clear market strategy, BYD is positioning itself as a rising star in the European automotive sky.

BYD's expansion in Europe

In December 2023, BYD announced the construction of its first European plant in Szeged, Hungary, with a planned annual capacity of over 100,000 vehicles. This plant is scheduled to start production in the second half of 2025 and is seen as an important step in strengthening BYD's European presence.

In addition, BYD plans to invest USD 1 billion in Turkey to build a plant with a capacity of 150,000 vehicles per year. This strategic decision will allow BYD to benefit from the customs union between Turkey and the EU and avoid potential trade barriers.

BYD aims to achieve a 5% market share in the European electric vehicle market by the end of 2025, even before production starts in Hungary. This ambitious target underlines the company's commitment to establishing itself as a leading player in Europe.

BYD in Switzerland

BYD has also gained a foothold in Switzerland. The company offers a range of models, including the BYD TANG, BYD HAN and BYD ATTO 3, which are available from local dealers. Emil Frey AG, one of the largest car dealers in Switzerland, has added BYD to its portfolio and offers the vehicles in its numerous branches.

BYD has also entered into partnerships with local companies in Switzerland to ensure the distribution and servicing of its vehicles. This collaboration enables Swiss customers to benefit from a comprehensive network for sales and maintenance.

Market penetration and competitive advantages

One of BYD's key competitive advantages lies in its vertical integration. The company not only produces vehicles, but also the batteries required for them itself. This control over the supply chain enables BYD to reduce costs and ensure the quality of its products.

BYD also offers a wide range of models that cover different segments of the market. From compact city cars to large SUVs, the company offers the right vehicle for every need.

Challenges and future prospects

Despite the positive developments, BYD faces challenges. In September 2023, the European Commission launched an anti-subsidy investigation against Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers, including BYD. This could lead to additional tariffs and affect competitiveness.

Nevertheless, BYD remains optimistic and is relying on its innovative strength and market strategy to establish itself in Europe in the long term. With continuous investment and adaptation to local market needs, BYD has the potential to make a lasting impact on the European electric vehicle market.

BYD's determined push into Europe demonstrates the company's confidence in the growth potential of the market. Through strategic investments and a clear vision, BYD is positioning itself as a major player in the European automotive sector. It remains exciting to see how this commitment will develop in the coming years. As a Swiss citizen, I am delighted to see BYD increasingly on our roads.

I am currently in $TSLA (-4,32 %) and $1211 (+2,45 %) invested. However, I believe that I will get rid of Tesla sooner rather than later, increase BYD further and, in due course, invest these same shares (profits) in a BYD vehicle. I'm still without a car so far. 😎

Happy investing

GG

Sources:

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/byd-steps-up-europe-expansion-with-new-compact-suv-2025-01-10/

https://www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/chinas-push-towards-europe-byds-investment-in-turkey

https://www.autonews.com/china/how-byd-aims-become-top-ev-player-europe/

https://www.byd.com/de-ch

https://www.byd.com/eu/news-list/byd-and-ayvens-partner-to-support-the-shift-to-electric-vehicles-in-europe

https://www.autonews.com/byd/ane-byd-small-suv-atto-2-europe/

$BMW (-0,12 %)
$VOW (-0,15 %)
#cars
#auto
#invest
#investing

After I wrote in the first post about the consequences of the announced and effective tariffs of the USA... there are now some concrete answers from the affected countries, especially from Canada.

It's hard to keep up with all the news 👀

In this post, I go into more detail about the possible consequences for the EU, especially for the automotive sector.

"1st post from this morning" can be read again here: https://getqu.in/oj1JRH/

Trump's new tariffs: Recap

Since February 1, 2025, the US government and Donald Trump have imposed new import tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China:

• 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada
• 10% on imports from China

• Trump's decrees also contain a passage stating that the tariffs could be increased or extended if the countries respond with retaliatory measures [1].

Canada: A tough counterattack

• Canada has already reported on countermeasures in the form of three levels of escalation [2]:

• 1️⃣ Targeted punitive tariffs on US products coming from Republican states (e.g. orange juice, whiskey, ketchup, peanut butter and motorcycles).

• 2️⃣ Tariffs on steel products and machine parts from the USA.

• 3️⃣ Escalation: Stop exports of oil, gas and electricity to the USA

However, this last step in particular would be a double-edged sword, as Canada is heavily dependent on energy cooperation with the USA.

Now it's getting concrete:

Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced at a press conference in the evening Canadian time that tariffs of 25 percent will also be introduced on US goods from Tuesday next week 🔄 [2].

The tariffs planned by Canada are intended for US goods with a total value of 155 billion dollars.

The Canadian government is also considering measures in other areas, such as trade in critical minerals.

Further effects on companies:

• Canadian exports to the USA will become more expensive and therefore less competitive.

Particularly affected: (automotive, energy, raw materials, agriculture)

German car manufacturers used Canada as a production and export location

• Volkswagen $VOW3 (+1,32 %) , BMW $BMW (-0,12 %) , Mercedes Benz $MBG (-1,31 %)
• e.g. VW is planning a battery factory in Canada to supply its US plants, Trudeau's government has lured the billion-euro project with high subsidies [2]. Trump's tariffs could make this billion-euro project unprofitable 🤡

Canadian oil and gas producers sell large quantities to the US, higher tariffs could make exports less attractive and squeeze profits.

• affected e.g. Canadian Natural Resources $CNQ (-0,99 %) Suncor Energy $SU (-1,36 %)

Fertilizer producers are heavily dependent on US exports, higher costs and a competitive disadvantage compared to US competitors represent a potential risk.

• affected e.g. Nutrien $NTR (-0,83 %)

Mexico: The USA punishes its most important trading partner

Counter-tariffs possible: President Claudia Sheinbaum has announced corresponding measures and instructed her Secretary of Commerce to implement a plan that considers counter-tariffs [2]. - We can be curious.

Mexico's dependence on the USA:

• According to economists, the tariff policy is likely to harm both economies through higher inflation and job losses.
• 80% of Mexican exports go to the USA, no other country exports more to the US.
• Millions of jobs and thousands of companies depend on the US market 💀

Trump uses tariffs as political leverage:

• He wants to force Mexico to take a tougher stance against illegal migration and drug cartels.
• He also accuses China of circumventing tariffs by allowing Chinese companies to export from Mexico to the USA.

Impact on European companies: (again the car manufacturers 👀)

• Almost all manufacturers and many suppliers use Mexico as a cheap production location and serve the US market from there
• VW, Audi and BMW have their own factories in the country, while Mercedes Benz produces in a joint plant with Nissan.
• With an additional surcharge, it hardly makes sense to send cars from Mexico to the USA.
• In response, manufacturers are expected to relocate at least part of their production from Mexico to the USA (at high cost, of course), where VW, BMW and Mercedes also have plants.

China: a further burden for an ailing economy

• China strongly criticized the punitive tariffs [2].
• Complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO): China sees the tariffs as unfair and wants to take legal action against them.

Consequences for China:

• US tariffs make Chinese products more expensive in the USA.
• The already weakening economy will be further burdened.

Indirect effects on Europe:

Chinese manufacturers such as BYD $1211 (+2,45 %) could be forced to develop alternative markets and push even harder into Europe.

• The result: more competition for German car manufacturers and possible price wars.
• VW & Co. are already struggling with overcapacity in Germany.

Furthermore:

• Foxconn $2354 an important Apple supplier with production in China and Mexico
• Punitive tariffs could make it necessary to relocate production.

Is the EU facing the same fate?

Trump has already indicated that the EU must also fear tariffs.

• His main argument: the EU has treated the USA unfairly in trade.

Possible measures:

• Tariffs on... who would have thought... the automotive industry and also other exports from the EU.
• Car exports to the USA could become increasingly unprofitable -> relocating production to the USA could ultimately be the only solution.
• A new edition of the trade conflict from Trump's first term in office (2017-2021).

Possible reaction of the EU:

• If Trump escalates again, the EU could also take retaliatory measures so far I haven't heard anything concrete 😴

Conclusion: Trade war 2.0?

Trump is once again focusing on confrontation and using tariffs as economic and political leverage. The countries affected are fighting back, which increases the risk of a global trade war.

The consequences are far-reaching:

USA: Higher prices for consumers, relocation of production to the domestic market possible.

China: Further economic pressure, stronger focus on Europe as a sales market.

Mexico & Canada: Massive burden on the economy & industry, relocation of production conceivable.

Europe: German car manufacturers under pressure, possible US tariffs on European products.

I'm in the mood... Thanks for reading, I've had enough now! 🤝

__________

Main sources:

[1] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/usa-trump-strafzoelle-100.html

[2] https://de.finance.yahoo.com/nachrichten/roundup-kanada-mexiko-china-kontern-083517258.html

Which German shares did you buy and how did they perform?#dax
#dax40
#deutschland
$SAP (-1,87 %)
$RHM (-1,89 %)
$MUV2 (-0,6 %)
$ALV (-0,14 %)
$ADS (-0,81 %)
$DE000A0PNN47
$VOW (-0,15 %)
$MBG (-1,31 %)
$P911 (+0,35 %)
$PAH3 (+0,48 %)
$BMW (-0,12 %)
$DTE (+0,67 %)
$DHL (+0,55 %)
$DB1 (-0,57 %)
$DBK (+0,12 %)
$RHM (-1,89 %)
$AIR (-3,2 %)
$LYY7 (-0,59 %)

Preface:

In the following, I would like to present how my portfolio has developed over the course of 2024.

This includes

1) my strategic orientation

2)Return on the portfolio.

The main topics are:

• Moving away from individual stocks
• Entry into gold and bitcoin
• Factor investing

Finally, I will give my own thoughts on how to proceed.

The main changes to my portfolio that have led

to my current strategy are presented below using a short timeline.

timeline:

My timeline

Beginning of 2024

At the beginning of the year, I pursued a 70/30 core satellite

strategy. The 70% ETF core again consisted of STOXX Europe.

MSCI World, Emerging Markets.

The 30% consisted of stocks such as: $CSIQ (-0,28 %) , $O (+1,37 %) ,$TSM (-0,58 %)
$ADM (+4,11 %)
$UMI (+1,76 %)
$D05 (+0,91 %)
$BMW (-0,12 %)
$UKW (-0,76 %)
$8031 (-0,64 %)
$MUV2 (-0,6 %)

February

Addition of gold to my portfolio. Target size 10%. Build-up in batches.

The remaining 70/30 strategy therefore only relates to the remaining

90%.

April-June:

Entry into Bitcoin via Trade Republic in several batches

at prices between 50k and 63k.

After exchange with @Epi to the fee schedule at Trade Republic

I sold them there in order to sell Bitcoin on a dedicated crypto exchange.

exchange.

June:

Thanks to @PowerWordChill I got to grips with factor investing. A Gerd Kommer book later, and after some internet research, I decided to

decided to transform my ETF strategy into a factor ETF strategy.

July-August 2024:

Sale of my shares. Concentration on the factor portfolio.

August - September 24:

Renewed build-up of Bitcoin with the aim of making Bitcoin a

a fixed component of the portfolio. Consideration is 5%-10%

of my portfolio.

The idea. Build up an initial position, then make regular

investments of €50 per week with the aim of growing to the target size

to grow to the target size. The rapid rise in October/November led me to

led me to leave it at €50 per week. And individual purchases in

larger tranches at an early stage with a portfolio size of 2.x%.

End of December 2024:

Position size of Bitcoin almost 5%.

I am not yet including Bitcoin in my gold/ETF quota. I'm still running it on the side.

I re-evaluated my factor weighting at the end of the year

and would like to fine-tune it a little. I will briefly present the result in the

following section.

In addition, I have decided to include a small

include a small proportion of real estate stocks. However, this will probably never

part of my strategy worth mentioning and contains - as of today - only

about 3% of my portfolio and only $O (+1,37 %) ).

Overall breakdown of my portfolio:

As described above, I do not yet include Bitcoin in my overall strategy

part of my overall strategy so that rebalancing remains easier. This will

change when Bitcoin reaches its target size.

The rest is made up as follows:

ETFs:

$XDEM (-1,03 %) 30.3% (MSCI World Momentum)

$XDEB (-0,35 %) 10.1% (MSCI World Minimum Volatility)

$XDEV (-0,68 %) 10.1% (MSCI World Value)

$ZPRV (-1,97 %) 15% (MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted)

$ZPRX (+0,2 %) 6.5% (MSCI Europe Small Cap Value Weighted)

$PEH (+0,69 %) 4.5% (as a quality factor on emerging markets)

$5MVL (+0,04 %) 4.5% (Edge MSCI EM Value)

$SPYX (-0,24 %) 9% (MSCI EM Small Cap)

Gold

$EWG2 (+0 %) 10% Gold ETC

Getquin Rewind and own data:

At the end of the post you will find my Getquin Rewind, as I was not able to embed the image in the text:

However, according to my own calculations, this cannot be correct.

My portfolio volume at the start of the year was around €103,500 with a return of €16,693. This would correspond to a total return of 19.2%. However, we are not yet talking about a time-weighted return, as my invested capital has roughly doubled over the course of the year. I therefore estimate my TTWROR to be higher.

My own thoughts and outlook:

I do not expect any major changes in strategy over the next few years. At some point, a strategy will have to be established. If necessary, I will make some adjustments to this strategy.

This includes the fact that I am dissatisfied with the costs of the emerging markets factor ETFs. So far, however, I intend to live with it. Should I

stumble across better products, I will consider switching. Especially as long as I stay within the tax allowance when switching.

I'll also have to decide how big my Bitcoin holding should ultimately be.

If you've been reading carefully, you'll notice that a lot of money has accumulated in the last year. Big profits, big investments. Due to personal circumstances, I will not maintain these rates in the same style, but will reduce them somewhat. I expect to be able to continue investing around 1.5-2k per month. This means that my financial goals are

with an expected return of 5% adjusted for inflation over many years.

I am half hoping for major setbacks in the near future and the associated favorable entries. However, in view of the impact that minor price jolts have had on society as a whole (thanks to populism), I don't really wish for them.

Do you have any suggestions, questions or comments? Is there anything that particularly interests you?

I am also happy to receive suggestions for improvement for future posts.

Best regards,

Your Smurf

PS: @DonkeyInvestor and me, that's love ❤. And now send me your coins! (So I can reward your next post appropriately).

PPS: I hope someone is interested.