Which German shares did you buy and how did they perform?#dax
#dax40
#deutschland
$SAP (+2,17 %)
$RHM (+1,17 %)
$MUV2 (+4,49 %)
$ALV (+0,9 %)
$ADS (+3,61 %)
$DE000A0PNN47
$VOW (+0,05 %)
$MBG (-0,06 %)
$P911 (-2,51 %)
$PAH3 (-1,13 %)
$BMW (+0,57 %)
$DTE (-1,56 %)
$DHL (-0,91 %)
$DB1 (+0,73 %)
$DBK (+0,01 %)
$RHM (+1,17 %)
$AIR (+0,75 %)
$LYY7 (+0,84 %)

Preface:

In the following, I would like to present how my portfolio has developed over the course of 2024.

This includes

1) my strategic orientation

2)Return on the portfolio.

The main topics are:

• Moving away from individual stocks
• Entry into gold and bitcoin
• Factor investing

Finally, I will give my own thoughts on how to proceed.

The main changes to my portfolio that have led

to my current strategy are presented below using a short timeline.

timeline:

My timeline

Beginning of 2024

At the beginning of the year, I pursued a 70/30 core satellite

strategy. The 70% ETF core again consisted of STOXX Europe.

MSCI World, Emerging Markets.

The 30% consisted of stocks such as: $CSIQ (-0,91 %) , $O (-0,41 %) ,$TSM (+1,43 %)
$ADM (-0,61 %)
$UMI (-2,28 %)
$D05 (-1,14 %)
$BMW (+0,57 %)
$UKW (-0,35 %)
$8031 (-1,15 %)
$MUV2 (+4,49 %)

February

Addition of gold to my portfolio. Target size 10%. Build-up in batches.

The remaining 70/30 strategy therefore only relates to the remaining

90%.

April-June:

Entry into Bitcoin via Trade Republic in several batches

at prices between 50k and 63k.

After exchange with @Epi to the fee schedule at Trade Republic

I sold them there in order to sell Bitcoin on a dedicated crypto exchange.

exchange.

June:

Thanks to @PowerWordChill I got to grips with factor investing. A Gerd Kommer book later, and after some internet research, I decided to

decided to transform my ETF strategy into a factor ETF strategy.

July-August 2024:

Sale of my shares. Concentration on the factor portfolio.

August - September 24:

Renewed build-up of Bitcoin with the aim of making Bitcoin a

a fixed component of the portfolio. Consideration is 5%-10%

of my portfolio.

The idea. Build up an initial position, then make regular

investments of €50 per week with the aim of growing to the target size

to grow to the target size. The rapid rise in October/November led me to

led me to leave it at €50 per week. And individual purchases in

larger tranches at an early stage with a portfolio size of 2.x%.

End of December 2024:

Position size of Bitcoin almost 5%.

I am not yet including Bitcoin in my gold/ETF quota. I'm still running it on the side.

I re-evaluated my factor weighting at the end of the year

and would like to fine-tune it a little. I will briefly present the result in the

following section.

In addition, I have decided to include a small

include a small proportion of real estate stocks. However, this will probably never

part of my strategy worth mentioning and contains - as of today - only

about 3% of my portfolio and only $O (-0,41 %) ).

Overall breakdown of my portfolio:

As described above, I do not yet include Bitcoin in my overall strategy

part of my overall strategy so that rebalancing remains easier. This will

change when Bitcoin reaches its target size.

The rest is made up as follows:

ETFs:

$XDEM (+0,71 %) 30.3% (MSCI World Momentum)

$XDEB (-0,5 %) 10.1% (MSCI World Minimum Volatility)

$XDEV (-0,27 %) 10.1% (MSCI World Value)

$ZPRV (-0,52 %) 15% (MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted)

$ZPRX (-0,2 %) 6.5% (MSCI Europe Small Cap Value Weighted)

$PEH (-0,45 %) 4.5% (as a quality factor on emerging markets)

$5MVL (+0,11 %) 4.5% (Edge MSCI EM Value)

$SPYX (-0,19 %) 9% (MSCI EM Small Cap)

Gold

$EWG2 (+0,41 %) 10% Gold ETC

Getquin Rewind and own data:

At the end of the post you will find my Getquin Rewind, as I was not able to embed the image in the text:

However, according to my own calculations, this cannot be correct.

My portfolio volume at the start of the year was around €103,500 with a return of €16,693. This would correspond to a total return of 19.2%. However, we are not yet talking about a time-weighted return, as my invested capital has roughly doubled over the course of the year. I therefore estimate my TTWROR to be higher.

My own thoughts and outlook:

I do not expect any major changes in strategy over the next few years. At some point, a strategy will have to be established. If necessary, I will make some adjustments to this strategy.

This includes the fact that I am dissatisfied with the costs of the emerging markets factor ETFs. So far, however, I intend to live with it. Should I

stumble across better products, I will consider switching. Especially as long as I stay within the tax allowance when switching.

I'll also have to decide how big my Bitcoin holding should ultimately be.

If you've been reading carefully, you'll notice that a lot of money has accumulated in the last year. Big profits, big investments. Due to personal circumstances, I will not maintain these rates in the same style, but will reduce them somewhat. I expect to be able to continue investing around 1.5-2k per month. This means that my financial goals are

with an expected return of 5% adjusted for inflation over many years.

I am half hoping for major setbacks in the near future and the associated favorable entries. However, in view of the impact that minor price jolts have had on society as a whole (thanks to populism), I don't really wish for them.

Do you have any suggestions, questions or comments? Is there anything that particularly interests you?

I am also happy to receive suggestions for improvement for future posts.

Best regards,

Your Smurf

PS: @DonkeyInvestor and me, that's love ❤. And now send me your coins! (So I can reward your next post appropriately).

PPS: I hope someone is interested.

Figure's humanoid robot, Figure 02, is now being used commercially for the first time, and is making money for the robotics company.

The robotics company Figure AI, developer of the humanoid robot Figure 02, has delivered its humanoid robot to its first commercial customer. This was announced by the founder and CEO of Figure Brett Adcock on LinkedIn. The second iteration of the humanoid robot is already "hard at work", writes Adcock. However, it is unclear which company has purchased the robot and is now using it.

According to Digit by Agility Robotics, Figure AI's Figure 02 is now one of the first humanoid robots that have to earn their living in a company and put money in the developer company's coffers.

It did not take very long for the humanoid robot to be ready for use. In October 2023, Figure AI presented the first version of its humanoid robot Figure 01 to the public. The robotics company initially tested the robot together with car manufacturer BMW. This was followed in August 2024 by the revised version of the robot: Figure 02, which was also tested for two weeks at BMW's US plant in Spartanburg. The autonomous robot was used to insert sheet metal parts into machines. $BMW (+0,57 %)

Working collaboratively with AI

In order to be able to communicate with humans and work more collaboratively, Figure entered into a partnership with the artificial intelligence (AI) company OpenAI. This enables the Figure 02 to respond to natural language instructions and perform various tasks autonomously. The robot can also answer questions. The aim is to get the robot to not only follow instructions, but to use AI to become a kind of "thinking" robot that can make decisions independently and communicate them to human employees.

Figure AI has not yet provided any information about its first commercial customer. The company is also not naming a price for its humanoid robot Figure 02.

The US start-up Figure AI, which combines robotics technology with AI, has impressively completed a financing round, raising 675 million US dollars. The list of investors, which includes Microsoft, OpenAI, NVIDIA, Jeff Bezos and Cathie Wood, reads like a Who's Who of the tech industry. (14.03.24 23:07)

https://www.heise.de/news/Figure-AI-verkauft-seine-ersten-humanoiden-Roboter-10222574.html

Medium-term objective to buy positions in $MA (+0,26 %) y $V (-0,14 %) when they reach a more appropriate price

These are companies that have performed very well in periods of crisis and maintain stable and growing dividends and constant results.

To equalize the risk a bit, when I have my portfolio at full capacity it will be composed of:

60% Technology with Growth Potential

$GOOGL (-0,99 %)
$NVDA (+4,6 %)
$MSFT (+1,07 %)
$META (+0,89 %)
$AAPL (-0,64 %)
$AMZN (+0,7 %)
$ABNB (+0,19 %)
$NFLX (+1,33 %)

30% Well-performing companies in crisis with stable growth and dividends.

$WMT (+0,01 %)
$MCD (+0,08 %)
$ITX (+1,16 %)
$MA (+0,26 %)
$V (-0,14 %)

10% Companies that can give good results in the long term and are going through temporary difficulties or companies that do not have profits because they reinvest everything in growth (riskier investments but with a higher possible return).

$BFIT (-0,6 %)
$NKE (+0,19 %)
$BMW (+0,57 %)

Any ideas to contribute? 💡

German automotive industry: crisis or entry opportunity? 📉📈

The German automotive industry is in a deep crisis. $VOW (+0,05 %) struggling with profit warnings, $BMW (+0,57 %) and $MBG (-0,06 %) reducing its margin forecasts and $P911 (-2,51 %) is suffering from weak business in China. Added to this are geopolitical uncertainties such as possible tariffs and a global shift towards electromobility, which continues to require more and more investment.

The figures therefore speak for themselves: profits are collapsing, sales figures are stagnating and the labor market is facing a transformation that could cost over 140,000 jobs by 2035.

But we all know that: Crises can be opportunities for us.

The sector is historically cheaply valued: many shares are trading near 25-year lows.

Experten We see the first rays of hope in 2025 - thanks to new models, a possible stabilization of demand and a gradual improvement in innovative strength, particularly in the premium segment.

So which brands look the best in relation to their valuation and where are the biggest problems?

To find out hier a new article - spoiler: It plays a significant role who has production sites in China.

#porsche
#volkswagen
#bmw
#mercedes
#emobilität

This article is part of an advertising partnership with Société Générale

"Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy." - Warren Buffett

The current fall in the share price of Rio Tinto ($RIO (-0,44 %) ) shows how strongly the commodities sector is characterized by uncertainty. But it is precisely moments like these that open up opportunities when the fundamental strength of a company is intact. Rio Tinto is a global player in essential industries such as iron ore, aluminum, copper and minerals, all commodities that are vital to the global economy.

Rio Tinto: A global player in essential industries

-Iron ore: Indispensable as the main ingredient for global steel production, important for infrastructure and construction projects worldwide

-AluminumFrom bauxite mining to aluminum production, Rio Tinto covers the entire value chain. Aluminum is essential for lightweight construction, the transport industry and many technological applications

-CopperCopper : A core material for electrification and renewable energy that plays a central role in the global energy transition

-MineralsMinerals : These include diamonds, titanium and borates, which are used in high-tech industries and agriculture

Strategic partners

-Sumitomo Metal Mining ($5713 (+0,89 %) )

Rio Tinto is working with Sumitomo Metal Mining on the Winu copper-gold project in Western Australia. This project secures access to raw materials that are essential for technological progress and electrification worldwide. The partnership demonstrates the strategic focus of both companies on global demand and modern technologies

-Green Lithium Refining Ltd

The cooperation with Green Lithium Refining Ltd highlights Rio Tinto's commitment to strengthen the European lithium market for the growing demand in the battery industry. The collaboration demonstrates the company's ability to support innovative solutions and sustainable projects that are critical to the future of energy

-BMW ($BMW (+0,57 %) )

Working with BMW on sustainable supply chains that include aluminum and other raw materials. This partnership underlines Rio Tinto's position as a trusted partner for some of the world's most prestigious brands. The ability to respond to BMW's high standards is a testament to the company's quality and commitment

Investor base

-Shining Prospect Pte. Ltd (14.02 percent share)

A significant strategic shareholder that supports the long-term growth and stability of Rio Tinto

-BlackRock, Inc. ($BLK ) (8.38 percent stake)

As the world's largest asset manager, BlackRock only invests in companies with a solid financial base and long-term potential. The investment underlines its confidence in Rio Tinto's management strategy and profitability

-The Capital Group Companies, Inc. ($CGHC ) (4.1 percent stake)

As one of the leading US asset managers, Capital Group stands for a long-term investment horizon. The investment in Rio Tinto shows that the company is perceived as a stable market leader even in uncertain times

This investor base shows that Rio Tinto is backed by some of the most experienced and trusted players in the financial world. Institutional investors with a clear focus on long-term value creation see the company as a reliable player in a globally critical market.

Conclusion

Rio Tinto supplies the essential raw materials that form the backbone of modern economies. Through strategic partnerships with leading companies such as BMW or Sumitomo and a strong investor base, Rio Tinto remains a key player benefiting from global trends such as electrification and infrastructure development. The current setback could be an opportunity to take a closer look at a company that is indispensable in key industries, in line with Buffett's quote.

Already for Christmas...........

Analsyst updates, 06.12.

⬆️⬆️⬆️

• BERNSTEIN raises the price target for SIEMENS from EUR 220 to EUR 227. Outperform. $SIE (+1,6 %)
• JPMORGAN raises the target price for SIEMENS ENERGY from EUR 38.70 to EUR 44. Neutral. $ENR (+6,8 %)
• JEFFERIES upgrades BMW from Hold to Buy and raises target price from EUR 80 to EUR 85. $BMW (+0,57 %)
• ODDO BHF raises the price target for AURUBIS from EUR 70 to EUR 76. Neutral. $NDA (-1,16 %)
• UBS raises target price for AUTO1 from EUR 9.80 to EUR 20.50. Buy. $AG1 (+1,64 %)
• UBS raises the target price for NORDEA from SEK 144 to SEK 145. Buy. $NDA FI (-0,15 %)
• DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for FREENET from EUR 34 to EUR 36. Buy. $FNTN (-1,2 %)
• DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the target price for DS SMITH from GBP 4 to GBP 5.80. Hold. $SMDS (-0,24 %)
• JPMORGAN raises the price target for THYSSENKRUPP from EUR 3.80 to EUR 4.10. Neutral. $TKA (-1,56 %)
• JPMORGAN raises the target price for SALZGITTER from EUR 11.50 to EUR 14.10. Underweight. $SZG (-2,62 %)
• JPMORGAN raises the price target for SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC from EUR 270 to EUR 275. Overweight. $SU (+3,21 %)
• JPMORGAN raises the price target for KNORR-BREMSE from EUR 88 to EUR 92. Overweight. $KBX (+1,59 %)
• MORGAN STANLEY upgrades HANNOVER RÜCK to Overweight. Target price EUR 292. $HNR1 (+3,32 %)
• JPMORGAN raises the target price for COMMERZBANK from EUR 18.40 to EUR 19.50. Overweight. $CBK (-1,14 %)

⬇️⬇️⬇️

• GOLDMAN lowers the price target for LVMH from EUR 770 to EUR 720. Buy. $MC (+2,09 %)
• MORGAN STANLEY downgrades MUNICH RE to Equal-Weight. Target price 523 EUR. $MUV2 (+4,49 %)
• JEFFERIES downgrades MERCEDES-BENZ from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 73 to EUR 60. $MBG (-0,06 %)
• ODDO BHF lowers the price target for DELIVERY HERO from EUR 43 to EUR 38. Neutral. $DHER (-3,26 %)
• WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for COMPUGROUP from EUR 31 to EUR 24.50. Buy. $COP (+0 %)
• JPMORGAN lowers the price target for VESTAS from DKK 143 to DKK 123. Neutral. $VWS (-2,21 %)
• JPMORGAN lowers the price target for KION from EUR 44 to EUR 43. Overweight. $KGX (+0,32 %)
• MORGAN STANLEY downgrades ORSTED to Equal-Weight. Target price DKK 480. $ORSTED (-3,96 %)

Dax dividends fall

In 2025, the 40 DAX companies will be paying out seven percent less than last year, according to a forecast by Handelsblatt. Car manufacturer shareholders will be hit particularly hard.

Many DAX shareholders will have to adjust to lower dividends for the current financial year: According to a forecast by Handelsblatt, the 40 Dax-listed companies will pay out a combined €48.5 billion next spring. That would be seven percent less than in the previous year.

At the same time, 22 companies are likely to further increase their payouts and eight will reduce their dividends. But overall, there will be a decline for the first time since the outbreak of the pandemic. This is mainly due to the car manufacturers, where the dividend total is likely to fall by almost 35% to around ten billion euros. This is due to falling profits at VW $VOW (+0,05 %) , BMW $BMW (+0,57 %) and Mercedes $MBG (-0,06 %) due to poor sales figures in Europe and especially in the former boom country China.

In contrast, the sporting goods manufacturer Adidas $ADS (+3,61 %) , the Deutsche Telekom
$DTE (-1,56 %) and the arms manufacturer Rheinmetall $RHM (+1,17 %) are increasing their dividends particularly sharply. This also applies to Deutsche Bank
$DBK (+0,01 %) and Commerzbank $CBK (-1,14 %) and the insurers Allianz $ALV (+0,9 %) , Munich Re
$MUV2 (+4,49 %) and Hannover Re
$HNR1 (+3,32 %) . The healthcare group Fresenius $FRE (+0,32 %) has not distributed anything for 2023, but is now planning a dividend again.

Commerzbank analyst Andreas Hürkamp sees a rotation: "In 2011, the automotive sector replaced utilities as the sector with the highest dividends. Now it is becoming apparent that after 14 years, insurers will be the new number one dividend payers in the DAX."

Handelsblatt

⬆️⬆️⬆️

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX raises the price target for SAP from EUR 200 to EUR 230. Hold. $SAP (+2,17 %)

- UBS upgrades HUGO BOSS from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from EUR 41 to EUR 49. $BOSS (-1,61 %)

- BOFA raises the price target for FRAPORT from EUR 55 to EUR 56. Neutral. $FRA (+0,32 %)

- UBS raises target price for RICHEMONT from CHF 144 to CHF 150. Buy. $CFR (+0,61 %)

- BOFA upgrades HOCHTIEF from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from EUR 112 to EUR 140. $HOT (+4,24 %)

- JPMORGAN raises target price for FEDEX from USD 350 to USD 366. Overweight. $FDX (+0,48 %)

- JPMORGAN raises the price target for ROCHE from CHF 220 to CHF 230. Underweight. $ROG (+1,22 %)

- UBS upgrades BMW from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from EUR 75 to EUR 83. $BMW (+0,57 %)

- JEFFERIES raises target price for UNICREDIT from EUR 47 to EUR 49. Buy. $UCG (-0,32 %)

⬇️⬇️⬇️

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB lowers the price target for DELIVERY HERO from EUR 61 to EUR 52. Buy. $DHER (-3,26 %)

- BARCLAYS lowers the target price for VOLKSWAGEN VORZÜGE from EUR 110 to EUR 100. Overweight. $VOW (+0,05 %)

- BARCLAYS lowers the target price for PORSCHE SE from EUR 35 to EUR 30. Underweight. $PAH3 (-1,13 %)

- UBS downgrades MERCEDES-BENZ from Buy to Neutral and lowers target price from EUR 72 to EUR 55. $MBG (-0,06 %)

- EXANE BNP downgrades HYPOPORT from Outperform to Neutral. $HYQ (-3,74 %)

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB lowers the price target for IBU-TEC from EUR 12 to EUR 7.40. Hold. $IBU (-0,46 %)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX downgrades SYMRISE from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 122 to EUR 114. $SY1 (-0,5 %)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for SANOFI from EUR 90 to EUR 85. Sell. $SAN (+0,1 %)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for CARL ZEISS MEDITEC from EUR 56 to EUR 45. Underweight. $AFX (-0,33 %)

- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for SARTORIUS from EUR 290 to EUR 275. Overweight. $SRT (+1,86 %)