Japan surprises once again: 2.8% growth in the last quarter! 🚀 While Europe - especially Germany - is talking about recession, the economy in Tokyo is booming. But why is the stock market reacting so cautiously?

Exports drive Japan, consumption weakens

Japan's growth engine is running at full speed - thanks to strong exports. Companies are investing heavily, but the population is holding back on consumption. Higher prices and stagnating wages are weighing on households. A familiar picture? Things look even gloomier in Germany: The country is struggling with shrinking economic output.

The yen as a risk

With the good figures, the yen is rising, which poses problems for Japan's export industry. More expensive goods abroad could dampen growth. Markets are also speculating on interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan - another question mark for investors.

Investors beware!

Anyone investing in Japan should take a close look: Can domestic consumption recover? Or will growth remain dependent on exports alone? Shares such as Sony $6758 (-4,49 %) , Toyota $7203 (-0,63 %) or Panasonic $6752 (-1,92 %) could benefit - but only if the economic climate stabilizes.

What do you think? Is Japan on the right track or just a flash in the pan? And what does this mean for Germany?

Sources: Manager Magazin, Statista,

Picture: ChatGPT

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/QjmnXzs5aPw?si=UBa2XKVcVG4h_9k1

Sunday:

Stock markets are likely to open lower on Monday. The reason is the tariff dispute between the USA and the rest of the world. Mexico and Canada have been hit with 25% tariffs, China with 10% and the EU is to follow suit. Both Mexico and Canada are not putting up with it and are hitting back. Justin Trudeau announces the same tariffs on US products and calls for a boycott of US products.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/reaktion-auf-trump-kanada-schlaegt-im-zollstreit-zurueck-dollar-fuer-dollar/100105058.html

Monday:

Inflation in the eurozone is on the rise again. Inflation rates rose to 2.5% in January. The expectation was 2.4%, but in combination with Trump's tariffs, this news is unlikely to go down well. This is because higher inflation and tariffs could make further interest rate cuts less likely.

https://www.morningstar.de/de/news/260151/inflation-in-der-eurozone-steigt-wieder-an---eu-bereitet-sich-auf-us-zouml%3Blle-vor.aspx

Tuesday:

UBS $UBSG (-5,51 %) UBS benefits from higher interest rates and generates significantly higher profit. Profit amounted to 5.1 billion euros in 2024. The integration of Credit Suisse is progressing well. The dividend is set to increase.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/banken-versicherungen/banken/banken-ubs-hebt-nach-gewinnsprung-dividende-deutlich-an/100105216.html

Things are going well at $KGX (-6,6 %) Kion. Despite an improved margin, the Group intends to further optimize costs. The operating margin improved to 8% in 2024. Cash flow and operating margin surprised positively.

https://www.finanzen.net/amp/effizienzoffensive-kion-aktie-gewinnt-marge-2024-verbessert-sich-kion-setzt-dennoch-sparmassnahmen-um-14205140

Wednesday:

Trump once again enters negotiations with maximum demands. He talks about the USA taking over the Gaza Strip. We are curious to see what the final outcome will be.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/israel-trump-will-gaza-besetzen-und-palaestinenser-umsiedeln/100105686.html

$GOOGL (-5,31 %) Alphabet falls slightly short of revenue expectations. Instead of USD 96.56 billion, it was only USD 96.47 billion. Overall, revenues increased by 12% in the last quarter. At 32%, the cloud division grew two percentage points less than expected.

https://www.finanzen.net/amp/quartalszahlen-vorgelegt-alphabet-aktie-rutscht-ab-google-mutter-alphabet-mit-gewinnsprung-cloudgeschaeft-enttaeuscht-14201453

German car manufacturers are not the only ones struggling with sales problems. Also $TSLA (-14,02 %) Tesla and now $7203 (-0,63 %) Toyota are also presenting poorer figures. Profits fell by 28% to 7.66 billion euros in the third quarter. In addition, Toyota is only now starting to develop electric cars.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/toyota-gewinn-des-groessten-autoherstellers-bricht-um-mehr-als-ein-viertel-ein/100105585.html

Good news: producer prices in the eurozone have risen less sharply than expected at 0.4%.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/inflation-erzeugerpreise-im-euroraum-gestiegen/100105784.html

Thursday:

The BoE cut the key interest rate to 4.5%. However, two members of the relevant committees called for an even greater rate cut. At the same time, the growth forecast in the UK 🇬🇧 was adjusted downwards.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/bank-of-england-leitzins-in-grossbritannien-sinkt-erneut-notenbank-steckt-im-stagflationsdilemma/100104646.html

These are the most important dates for the coming week:

Wednesday: 14:30 Inflation data (USA)

Thursday: 14:30 Producer prices (USA)

Friday: 14:30 Retail sales (USA)

Can you think of any other dates? Write it in the comments 👇

#inflation
#usa
#einzelhandel

Happy New Year everyone! We are starting the new year with adjustments to the Sina ETF. (The performance here below somehow no longer corresponds to the actual performance, but so be it...) After this post you'll have peace and quiet from my ETF again :D

I sold some stocks and invested the dividends I received last year. That left me with 19 euros in cash, so it's still a 40-share ETF ;)

If this were my only portfolio, I would probably have held more cash and not reinvested directly, as the entry point doesn't always seem optimal. But I also proceeded without regard to entry points.

For the question of how high the profits or losses were, please refer to the portfolio.

Out are:

$STLAM (+0,81 %) (loss)

$AFX (-5,51 %) (loss)

$MC (-2,1 %) (loss)

$OR (+0,1 %) (loss)

$7203 (-0,63 %) (loss)

$D05 (+0,17 %) (Profit)

$RHM (-0,93 %) (Profit)

$ENR (-10,12 %) (Profit; also dropped from my "real" portfolio)

Partial sale:

$WMT (-4,23 %) at 50%

Increased by:

$AAPL (-5,15 %)

$MSFT (-3,34 %)

$ASML (-6,44 %) Since the position was down over 20%, but I am convinced in the long term

$GOOGL (-5,31 %)

New additions:

$BKNG (-4,56 %)

$JPM (-4,85 %)

$NU (-6,69 %)

$COST (-3,01 %)

$AFL (-1,73 %)

$INTC (-3,56 %)

$CRM (-4,07 %)

$NOVO B (-8,96 %)

Boston Dynamics $HYUD
and Toyota's research division $7203 (-0,63 %) want to bring AI to the Atlas robot.

When it comes to imitating natural movements for robots, the US robotics company Boston Dynamics is one of the world leaders, and Atlas is currently one of the best humanoid robots. In future, it should be even easier to teach it new movements.

The company has entered into a partnership with the Toyota Research Institute (TRI) to bring TRI's Large Behavior Model (LBM) and Atlas together. The aim is to "accelerate the development of humanoid general-purpose robots", the TRI announced.

The LBM developed by the TRI is based on a process that was developed together with Columbia University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and is known as the diffusion policy. A robot learns through haptic demonstrations.

The human demonstrates, the robot learns

Diffusion policy is part of imitation learning (IL): instead of writing elaborate code to teach a robot new behaviors, a human demonstrates a movement.

This creates small, consecutive actions that are combined into a complex action. Instead of predicting a single action in one step, the diffusion policy predicts different actions and narrows them down over time. This makes a robot increasingly precise when handling objects.

The TRI has already taught robots a number of skills in this way. These include, for example, pouring liquids or using tools. They have even been able to teach the robots complex tasks such as preparing pancakes, peeling potatoes or buttering bread.

Boston Dynamics and the TRI are establishing a joint research team that will be based in Boston. "Current advances in AI and machine learning open up enormous potential for the further development of physical intelligence"said TRI CEO Gill Pratt: "The opportunity to implement TRI's AI on Boston Dynamics' hardware is critical to both of our organizations as we work to empower people and improve quality of life."

Toyota shows how it's done

$7203 (-0,63 %)

https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/heute-19-uhr/rekordumsaetze-bei-toyota-video-100.html

Toyota sees potential in air cabs.

$7203 (-0,63 %)

In Germany $LILM (+6,87 %) on the brink of insolvency.

Perhaps a German car manufacturer will be found 🙈.

https://www.electrive.net/2024/10/05/toyota-investiert-500-millionen-us-dollar-in-flugtaxi-startup-joby/

#3

I also find it exciting that many car manufacturers are directly invested in EVTOL manufacturers. You can see the individual links in the picture below.

- $011760 (Hyundai) has founded its own company with Supernal

- $9868 (-1,86 %) (Xpeng) also has its own project with XpengAH

- $MBG (+1,46 %) (Mercedes) has invested in Volocopter

- $7203 (-0,63 %) (Toyota) is invested in Joby Aviation

- $STLAM (+0,81 %) (Stellantis) is invested in Archer and even to a large extent. In addition, Stellantis will build the air cabs for Archer in the US plant as a contract manufacturer.

You have to see how much the car manufacturers pursue this strategy when things get serious. Stellantis seems to me to be the furthest along.

This is another way to indirectly invest in the EVTOL industry without taking the full risk of being directly invested in one of the manufacturers. #evtol manufacturer directly.

Operating margin car manufacturers Q1/24

+38.2% Ferrari

+15.7% Porsche

+11.2% Stellantis

+10.8% Mercedes

+10.0% Toyota

+8.8%% BMW

+5.5% General Motors

+7.6% Renault

+7.2% Volvo

+6.6% Volkswagen

+5.8% Hyundai

+5.6% Honda

+5.5% Tesla

+4.7% BYD

+2.9% Ford

>> Opinions?

$TSLA (-14,02 %)
$RACE (-2,74 %)
$P911 (+3,92 %)
$STLAM (+0,81 %)
$MBG (+1,46 %)
$7203 (-0,63 %)
$BMW (+1,09 %)
$GM (-0,64 %)
$RNO (-1,86 %)
$VOLV B (-2,97 %)
$VOLV A (-3,03 %)
$VOW (+0 %)
$005380
$1211 (-3,61 %)
$81211
$F (+0,27 %)
$7267 (-0,15 %)