Postes
118Would you currently rather buy additional positions in your portfolio or add new shares to your portfolio?
I am currently short these positions:
$ASML (-0,34 %) (-17%) (actually position full)
$NVDA (-1,08 %) (-20%) (position actually full)
$GOOGL (-1,17 %) (-15%)
$VST (-1,04 %) (-20%)
$HIMS (-1,02 %) (-22%)
$AMZN (-0,94 %) (-2%)
that I would like to get new
- 14 positive surprises
- Three negative surprises
- Dividend increases
- Dividend decreases
- Overview of all DAX stocks
Link:
$ALV (-0,37 %)
$MUV2 (-0,67 %)
$RHM (+2,02 %)
$MBG (-1,5 %)
$SAP (-1,24 %)
$BMW (-2,04 %)
$AIR (-1,99 %)
$VOW (+0,89 %)
$DBK (-1,58 %)
$CBK (-2,09 %)
$SIE (-1,01 %)
$P911 (-0,82 %)
$DTE (-3,83 %)
$IFX (-0,48 %)
Almost three-quarters of all DAX and MDAX companies pay out dividends in May.
Dividend calendar with payday and expected yield:
This year's dividend champion is likely to be $RTLL (+0,73 %) - RTL Group. Shareholders can expect a yield of around 8%. However, this is only half as high as three years ago.
Deutsche Telekom is now increasingly seen as a dividend pearl. $DTE (-3,83 %) - Deutsche Telekom is increasingly seen as a dividend pearl. This year's dividend is EUR 0.90, i.e. an increase of 17% on the previous year, with a yield of around 2.7%.
Other reliable payers are $SIE (-1,01 %) - Siemens and $SAP (-1,24 %) - SAP.
One of the most reliable payers of all is $MUV2 (-0,67 %) - Munich Re. There has never been a dividend shortfall since 1960 and the amount paid per share has increased sixteen-fold since the beginning of the millennium.
There are also some attractive dividend payers in Europe, such as $ENI (-1,38 %) - ENI and $ISP (+3,64 %) - Intensa and $BNP (+0,7 %) - BNP.
Source (excerpt) / graphics: WELT
Hey guys,
I wanted to address a topic that is certainly of interest to us as investors: the reconstruction of Ukraine and which stocks could benefit from it. The geopolitical situation is constantly changing and there are many uncertainties. What happens if Donbass goes permanently to Russia? Will this slow down the reconstruction of Ukraine or could it still create opportunities for companies in the region?
America is getting involved mit🇺🇸
The USA is playing a central role in the reconstruction of Ukraine. A lot of money is already flowing into the region from the US, particularly for infrastructure, energy and technology. But it's not just about government aid - many US companies also have an interest in investing in the region. Considering how heavily the US is involved in supporting countries such as Poland and Ukraine, there are a number of companies here that could definitely benefit.
What happens if the Donbass goes to Russia?⚔️
If the Donbass is finally controlled by Russia, the geopolitical situation will of course worsen. This could slow down reconstruction in Ukraine, as this part of the country was an important industrial location. Nevertheless, billions of euros will flow into the western and central parts of Ukraine, and Poland could become an even more important partner in reconstruction.
Which stocks could benefit?📈🚀
If you look at who is active in the region, there are some exciting candidates that could benefit from the reconstruction. Here are a few companies that I think are well positioned:
♦️ Strabag (Austria): $STR (+1,36 %) A construction company that is active in many infrastructure projects in Europe. They could play an important role in the reconstruction of roads, bridges and buildings - also in Poland and Ukraine.
♦️ PGE (Polska Grupa Energetyczna): $PGE (-0,57 %) Poland's largest energy company. PGE could benefit from the expansion of the energy supply in Ukraine.
♦️ Budimex: $BDX (+0,82 %) Another Polish construction company that is doing well in infrastructure projects. When Ukraine awards major construction contracts, Budimex could be one of the first ports of call.
♦️ KGHM: $KGH (-2,38 %) This company is active in copper production. And we know how important copper is for reconstruction - whether for power lines, machinery or other infrastructure.
♦️ Asseco Poland:
$ACP (-1,52 %) An IT company that is active in many areas. They could play a key role in modernizing the digital infrastructure in Ukraine.
♦️ General Electric (USA) $GEC GE operates globally and Ukraine needs a lot of energy infrastructure. GE could benefit by providing solutions in the field of energy supply.
♦️ Siemens: $SIE (-1,01 %)
$ENR (-0,8 %) The German company could play a crucial role in reconstruction through its expertise in energy and infrastructure.
Conclusion❔☝🏽
The geopolitical situation will keep us busy for some time, but one thing is clear: the reconstruction of Ukraine will require a lot of resources and investment, and many companies from Poland, the EU and the US are well positioned to benefit. Even if the Donbass aligns with Russia, the need for construction projects, energy and technology in western Ukraine and Poland will continue.
What do you think? Which companies do you think are interesting? Do you have any stocks on your radar that have a good chance in this context? Let us hear your opinions and ideas!
Siemens $SIE (-1,01 %) starts with job cuts
Siemens has announced the sad news that around 6000 jobs will be cut worldwide, including 2850 in Germany. The Digital Industries division, which is suffering from weak demand and high inventories, has been hit particularly hard. While the company emphasizes that there will be no compulsory redundancies in Germany, there is a great deal of uncertainty. The Group had already indicated in the fall that job cuts in the low to mid four-digit range were imminent. Sales in the automation business in particular have fallen sharply, even if an improvement is in sight. For Germany, however, it is to be hoped that the workforce will remain stable, as recruitment is continuing in growing areas. The works council and IG Metall have criticized the measures as contradictory and are calling for jobs to be retained in order to successfully carry out the necessary transformations.
Vonovia sees challenges due to debt package
Vonovia is facing a number of challenges in the USA and in Germany. Following losses in 2024, the company wants to get back on track and plans to increase its operating profit by around 30 percent by 2028. Despite an increase in rents and stabilized value development in the second half of 2023, Vonovia suffered a loss of 962 million euros. However, the German government's new debt package could jeopardize the ambitious plans, as rising construction interest rates could lead to a reluctance to invest in certain projects. Nevertheless, Vonovia CEO Rolf Buch remains optimistic and has set himself the target of increasing the operating result to between 2.7 and 2.8 billion euros by 2025. The German government's investment plans entail both opportunities and risks in terms of real estate prices and financing costs.
Sources:
Yesterday I listened to the analyst discussion between Ralf Thomas, the CFO of Siemens ($SIE (-1,01 %)), and an analyst from Bank of America at the Bank of America Global Industrials Conference 2025.
The discussion covered a wide range of topics, from the current economic situation in Germany and the US to the dynamics in China and strategic portfolio decisions, in particular the investment in Siemens Healthineers.
The analysts' first question was directed at the situation in Germany. They were asked about the potential impact of the expected government stimulus and its significance for Siemens and the wider European economy. Mr. Thomas emphasized that Siemens, as a globally operating company, has a well-balanced global value chain, which which enables the company to serve different markets simultaneously. Although Siemens welcomes the efforts of Europe, and Germany in particular, to find new impetus, it is proud of its global footprint, which is supported by investments in twin factory concepts and local product development in growth markets.
Another point on the German situation concerned the announced job cuts and their complexity in the context of possible government funding and the profitability of Siemens in Germany. Mr. Thomas pointed out that the announcement had already been communicated in the same dimension in November last year and that yesterday's "excitement" was surprising. Only a small proportion of the job cuts affect Germany, as Siemens growth opportunities and not geographical or fit-related aspects. must be prioritized. In view of around 2,000 vacancies in Germany, Siemens plans to investments in retraining and further training measures. Mr. Thomas does not believe that this measure should hinder government contract awards and assumes that the impact of this announcement will be digested anyway before political impulses turn into concrete orders and sales.
The discussion then shifted to the USAwhere analysts asked about the impact of political uncertainties, in particular tariffson customer activity and decision making. Mr. Thomas confirmed that political uncertainties typically lead to a paralysis among decision makers paralysis. This can currently be observed not only in the USA, but also in other regions due to geopolitical tensions. However, he emphasized that Siemens as a B2B company has rational decision-makers as customers and has a high order backlog of 118 billion euros which should not affect the short-term sales trend.
While there is caution in some areas, particularly with ambitious business models in relation to ESG, the long-term commitments to carbon neutrality remain in place. If the uncertainty persists for longer (one to two quarters), this could become problematic, but Mr. Thomas does not see this coming at the moment. He also pointed out a possible positive downside: If tariffs lead to smaller production facilities, this could automation could become even more important due to labor shortages and benefit Siemens.
With regard to the order momentum in the second quarter in the USA and the comparatively easy figures from the previous year, Mr. Thomas no significant impact on the current on the current guidance. The expectation of a normalization in the industrial sector, particularly in automation, by the end of the second quarter remains unchanged. The estimates for demand in China and inventories at distributors also remain valid, although the trend may even be slightly better than expected. The aforementioned uncertainties would not affect the guidance for the second quarter and the 2025 financial year.
The following was also discussed in detail situation in China was also examined in detail. The normalization of business activity is progressing as expected, possibly even better. Inventories at distributors are in the normal range, and inventories at OEMs and end customers are also continuing to fall. The automotive sector in China is developing significantly better than in Europe and the USA, particularly in the area of electromobility. The Chinese government seems to be focusing on high-value industries, which should benefit Siemens. Mr. Thomas also mentioned that the Chinese government appears to be positioning itself to respond to potential tariffs. In the long term, the trend towards a stagnant or shrinking skilled labor force remains, which encourages local investment in high-value technologies.
With regard to competition local Chinese suppliers have improved in recent years and gained market share in the lower price segment, both in terms of cost and quality. However, Siemens remains strong in the high-end market segments. In order to be more successful in the mid-range market segment, Siemens has launched a local program "in China for China" in which products with local development and local supply chains are developed for the domestic market and neighboring regions. Initial reactions from customers have been positive and further products are to be presented at the upcoming Hanover Fair.
Another set of questions concerned the profitability of the Digital Industries Division (DI) compared to competitors. Mr. Thomas suggested that the two divisions within DI - Automation automation and software - separately. In the area of Software Siemens is in the SaaS transitionwhose progress and objectives are reported transparently. This strategy aims to grow in the small and medium-sized enterprise market, where over 80% of new customers have already been acquired. The planned acquisition of Altair will further strengthen this area. Mr. Thomas indicated that in future cash flow-oriented KPIs could provide more clarity about performance. In the area of automation a direct comparison with competitors is difficult, which is why Siemens is currently sticking to the existing reporting structure with sales growth and profitability at divisional level. Further details are to be announced in December of this year as part of a new financial framework.
The analysts were also interested in the the strong margin improvement in the Smart Infrastructure (SI) in recent years and the sustainability of these margins in view of increasing capacities in the market, particularly in the field of electrification. SI has achieved higher profitability than in the same quarter of the previous year for 17 consecutive quarters, which can be attributed to cost savings and growth impulses growth impetus. In addition, the portfolio is being continuously optimizedwhereby non-core business areas are being divested (e.g. wireless accessories). This development is based on innovations, technological leadership and investments in research and development and a consistent focus on growth segments. Mr. Thomas was optimistic that SI could not only reach the upper end of the previous margin corridor, but also expand it with the target range of 16% to 20% for the next cycle. The guidance for the current financial year (17% to 18% margin) remains unchanged and additional profits from the sale of Wireless Accessories are expected in the second quarter.
A short part of the discussion was devoted to the acquisition of Altair. Analysts noted that the deal could close sooner than expected and asked about the impact on the timing of the sale of investments in listed companies for financing. Thomas confirmed that the deal was originally expected to close in the second half of the year, but that it currently looks like it will happen sooner. The financing of the transaction has been secured and will be provided by various sources as announced last year: Proceeds from the sale of Innomotics, Reduction of the stake in Siemens Energy (already reduced from 17% to around 12%, with proceeds of €2.2 billion) and Siemens Healthineers (successful sale of shares for EUR 1.5 billion) as well as the strong free cash flow of Siemens.
A central point of the discussion was the strategic strategic review of the investment in Siemens Healthineers. The analysts asked about the reasons for the change in communication over the last three months and the advantages and disadvantages of different shareholding levels. Mr. Thomas recapitulated that Siemens had emphasized from the outset when Healthineers was listed on the stock exchange in 2018 that it would not necessarily hold on to the majority stake. The successful acquisition and integration of Varian and the development in the in-vitro diagnostics area had shown that Healthineers was meeting expectations. Mr. Thomas emphasized that Siemens had always said that the healthcare market encompasses more than just medical technology. Many industrial companies would recognize the potential of this broader healthcare market, in which Siemens AG is active with its products and solutions in areas such as energy efficiency in buildings, asset tracking and digital tools is also strongly positioned. The review is taking so long because the healthcare market the healthcare market (not just medical technology) is highly fragmented geographically with different regulatory frameworks and reimbursement systems in almost 200 jurisdictions. Therefore, a careful assessment in each market is necessary to determine how to best leverage access to decision makers in large hospital chains.
Mr. Thomas clarified that Siemens would not invest €45 billion to gain this market access if it had a smaller or no stake in Healthineers. However, as Siemens currently holds a significant stake, it has a duty to its shareholders to carefully examine this situation carefully and make the best use of it. He asked for patience until December, when the results of the review and the resulting conclusions will be transparently presented, and expressed his conviction that shareholders will understand the reasons for this. There is no single determining factor for a particular shareholding level, but a complex system that requires thorough analysis.
The discussion with Ralf Thomas conveyed a picture of Siemens as a globally resilient company that sees itself well positioned despite geopolitical uncertainties. The focus remains on high-margin growth, particularly in the software sector through the SaaS transformation and the planned Altair acquisition. The operating performance in the DI and SI divisions is rated positively, with SI achieving impressive margin improvements through consistent cost control and strategic initiatives. The strategic review of the investment in Siemens Healthineers is being conducted with great care in order to maximize value for shareholders and take full advantage of opportunities in the broader healthcare market.
At 53 billion euros, the 40 DAX companies are likely to pay out almost one billion euros more this year than a year ago - more than ever before.
The reason for the strong development is high consolidated profits and unexpectedly rising dividends at a good dozen companies, including $ALV (-0,37 %) Allianz, $MUV2 (-0,67 %) Munich Re and $RHM (+2,02 %) Rheinmetall.
At 109 billion euros net profit, the DAX companies are likely to have earned as much in 2024 as in the previous year, according to Handelsblatt calculations. Slump in earnings for the three car manufacturers $BMW (-2,04 %) BMW, $MBG (-1,5 %) Mercedes and $VOW (+0,89 %) VW will be offset by companies in other sectors, in particular the major insurers Allianz, Munich Re and $HNR1 (-1,83 %) Hannover Re, but also $DTE (-3,83 %) Deutsche Telekom, $HEN (-2,56 %) Henkel and $EOAN (-1,15 %) Eon.
More than a dozen DAX companies have announced higher dividends than the market had previously expected. For example $ALV (-0,37 %) 15.40 euros per share after 13.80 euros in the previous year. Analysts had forecast just under 15 euros. The insurer is thus distributing just under six billion euros. This is a record in the German corporate landscape.
The biggest jump is at $MUV2 (-0,67 %) Munich Re: The reinsurer is increasing its dividend by five euros per share to 20 euros.
The two healthcare specialists $FRE (-1,42 %) Fresenius and $FME (-1,02 %) Fresenius Medical Care, the brand manufacturer $HEN (-2,56 %) Henkel, the automotive supplier $BTR Continental, the $CBK (-2,09 %) Commerzbank, $RHM (+2,02 %) Rheinmetall and $HNR1 (-1,83 %) Hannover Re have raised their dividends, in some cases significantly more than expected. This is also due to rising profits, which justify a higher profit share for shareholders.
The largest dividend payers in the DAX are
Like the car manufacturers, a number of companies in the DAX remain below the usual international payout ratios, including the family-run groups $BEI (-0,36 %) Beiersdorf and $MRK (-0,67 %) Merck. They pass on less than 30 percent of their profits. This leaves enough of a buffer so that dividends do not have to be reduced immediately in more difficult times.
Germany's most valuable group, $SAP (-1,24 %) SAP, with a payout ratio of 85%, is pushing the limit: net profit of 3.1 billion euros in the past year compares with a total dividend payout of 2.7 billion euros. However, the profit was burdened by a one-off effect.
So far, a total of 20 companies have increased their dividends, with only $BAS (+1,43 %) BASF and the three car manufacturers. Four companies have yet to do so: $RWE (-0,35 %) RWE, $SY1 (-1,14 %) Symrise and $VNA (-0,45 %) Vonovia are likely to increase their dividends, while analysts expect $PAH3 (-1,85 %) analysts expect a reduction at Porsche Holding.
Source (excerpt) & chart: Handelsblatt, 15.03.25
If you don't want to read the report...below is a short summary
1. the US labor market and the risk of recession
The US economy is in a precarious phase. The S&P 500 has fallen below its 200-day line for the first time since October 2023. Even more critical is the price ratio of the S&P 500 to US Treasuries ($TLT)which is once again at the 200DMA line, essentially a support level that has served as a psychological barrier against a bear market since December 2020 (Chart 2). The most recent Februar-Payroll-Daten with 151k new jobs was right in the middle of nowhere. A jobs report of over 200k would have been a strong reading and would have indicated that the US economy is robust enough to withstand higher interest rates. Stock markets would have stabilized as there was no imminent threat of recession; a report of 125k would have been a weak reading and would have indicated a cooling economy and falling corporate profits. The market would have slipped into a bear market phase, while bonds would have benefited as a safe haven.151k jobs lie exactly between these thresholds and offer no clear basis for interpretation.
Another alarming signal comes from the ratio of US consumer discretionary stocks to Staples stockswhich has reached an all-time high (Chart 5). For decades, this ratio has been a reliable early indicator of an imminent weak phase for the S&P 500. You could say that the USA is one payroll report away from a recession. The background to this is the dwindling influence of government job subsidies: In January 2025, the following 70% des Arbeitsmarktwachstums came from the public sector, a significant decline from 85% in the previous year. At the same time, the household savings rate is rising.
2 Global military spending: Europe in a fiscal dilemma
Germany's military expenditure amounts to only 7% of US spending, the United Kingdom reaches 8% (Charts 6 and 7). This explains why European budget deficits are exploding: For Germany, an average deficit of -4% of GDP is forecast for Germany for the period 2025-2030 (Chart 9). The "Whatever-it-takes" policy on Merz is driving the yields of German Bundesanleihen to over 3% (15-year high) and British Gilts to over 5,5% (27-year high).
German Bund yields could overtake US Treasuries this year (Chart 3).
3. flight to safety, exodus at risk
4 AI shock and tech
The DeepSeek AI shock has rearranged the tech bubble. The Magnificent 7 ($AAPL (-1,37 %) , $MSFT (-0,66 %) , $NVDA (-1,08 %) , $AMZN (-0,94 %) , $GOOGL (-1,17 %) , $META (-1,47 %) ) lost 3 trillion USD in market capitalization and are now known as the Lagnificent 7 are mocked. At the same time, the market capitalization of China's BATX ($9888 (+2,07 %) , $9988 (+3,34 %) , $700 (+2,37 %) , $1810 (-3,43 %)) to 1.6 trillion USDa sign that Chinese companies are catching up in the AI sector.
This shift is also reflected in the US-ISM-Manufacturing-PMI-Daten (Charts 10 & 11): The recent rise to 55 points is seen as tariff frontrunning interpreted. Companies stocked up their inventories ahead of time in order to circumvent expected trade barriers (e.g. new US tariffs on Chinese semiconductors). However, this short-term upswing masks structural weaknesses: The cyclicals vs. defensives ratio (Chart 11) points to an imminent slowdown in industrial activity. The cyclicals vs. defensives ratio compares the performance of cyclical stocks (industrials, commodities, consumer goods) with that of defensive stocks (utilities, healthcare, consumer staples). Basically serves as a leading indicator for economic expectations.
5. forecasts 2025: strategic decisions
Recommendation: Buy 30YUST with a yield target of below 4%. Reasons:
At the same time, one can UK Gilts & EU bonds can be classified as sell candidates. The yields of UK gilts are at 5,5% (27-year high), driven by the cost of rearmament and a budget deficit of 6.1% of GDP.
Equities: Europe and China in focus
Weak dollar, strong exporters
A weak US dollar favors European and Chinese exporters. At the same time US semiconductors could experience a recovery: The equal-weighted Semiconductor Index($esox) has 73% of its gains since the ChatGPT hype in May 2023. The tech sector also saw an inflow for the first time in 5 weeks (USD 2.6bn).
6. trouble spots: Japan and the ticking debt bomb
The 30-jährigen JGB-Renditen are quoted at 2,5% (17-year high), while the Bank of Japan with a key interest rate of 0,5% well behind the wage growth (5-6%) is lagging behind wage growth. Should the BoJ tighten its policy in order to regain credibility, there is a risk of a Nikkei Sell Offsimilar to the in August 2024when the yen appreciated sharply and Carry-Trades collapsed. If it fails to act, the weakness of the yen could push up import costs further and exacerbate stagflation.
7. summary 2025
2025 will be dominated by three megatrends:
+ 6
Siemens Energy and Rolls-Royce design mini-nuclear power plants
Siemens Energy $SIE (-1,01 %) and Rolls-Royce $RR. (+0,41 %) have recently signed an exciting supply contract to develop mini nuclear reactors in the UK. These new modular reactors are not only simpler but also cheaper to build than the conventional nuclear power stations we are familiar with. Siemens Energy will provide key equipment such as steam turbines and generators. An official contract is expected to be signed by the end of the year, further increasing the anticipation for this innovative technology.
With an impressive output of up to 470 megawatts, the planned reactors could supply around 1.1 million households with electricity. Nevertheless, there are also critical voices: Opponents of nuclear power warn that a large number of smaller plants could bring new risks. The nuclear industry, on the other hand, emphasizes the advantages of this technology and sees it as a forward-looking solution. In countries such as the UK, Czech Republic and Poland, the development of such small modular reactors is being driven forward, while Germany is phasing out nuclear energy.
Health insurance companies call for measures to tackle deficit
The health insurance funds are facing an unexpectedly large challenge: the deficit is higher than expected. The head of the association, Pfeiffer, is pushing for immediate measures to stop the continuous rise in expenditure. She is proposing an expenditure moratorium to ensure that health insurance funds do not spend more than they earn with the current contribution rates. Price or fee increases that exceed current revenues should be avoided. This step would give politicians the time they need to tackle the necessary structural reforms in the healthcare system. A fundamental change of course in healthcare policy is considered urgently necessary in order to stabilize the financial situation of the health insurance funds in the long term.
Sources:
Dear community,
I have been investing for almost exactly 3 years now and pursue a dividend strategy with a "core" of 3 monthly saved ETFs.
After a personally difficult year in 2024, I am trying to keep my savings rate at € 200-300 per month in 2025.
This will be divided as follows:
50-100€ FTSE
30-50€ Europe
20-30€ EM IMI
The remaining approx. 100€ goes into my dividend share portfolio. I don't usually make any really strategic choices there to continue saving... I just save the ones I want... As I want to keep all the shares, I perhaps don't see any real reason to make a critical selection.
Maybe you can still give me some tips.
I would like to add 6 more dividend payers to my dividend portfolio in the future.
$CAT (-1,26 %) , $CL (-0,45 %) , $BATS (+0,07 %) , $CSCO (-1,14 %) , $SIE (-1,01 %) , $WFC (-0,48 %)
Thank you for your attention.
