$NOVO B (-7,73 %)

The latest announcements by the US government to impose import duties on pharmaceutical products are casting a shadow over European pharmaceutical companies. Novo Nordisk, the Danish market leader in diabetes and obesity therapy, is particularly in the spotlight.

🔍 Background

Novo Nordisk generates over 60% of its sales in North America, while only around a fifth of its production takes place there. This discrepancy makes the company vulnerable to trade barriers. Analysts estimate that a hypothetical 20% US tariff on Novo Nordisk's products could reduce the company's EBITA by up to 10% in 2025.

Chart 1:

📉 Potential negative impact

- Margin pressureIf tariffs of e.g. 20% are imposed on pharmaceutical products, Novo Nordisk would either have to increase prices in the US (which is politically and regulatory difficult) or reduce margins - which has a direct impact on EBIT.

- Supply chain complexityThe introduction of tariffs could force Novo Nordisk to relocate parts of its production to the US to avoid additional costs. However, such restructuring requires significant investment and time. They could also disrupt the company's global supply chain and affect the availability of medicines.

- Regulatory challengesDuties could result in additional regulatory requirements that make market access more difficult and increase administrative costs.

Figure 2:

📈 Potential opportunities

- Reshoring as an advantageNovo Nordisk is already expanding new production capacities in the USA. If the supply chain becomes more local, tariffs could even become less important in the medium term.

- Political tailwindAs a provider of medicines for widespread diseases (e.g. diabetes, obesity), Novo Nordisk generally enjoys a high political standing - which is in contrast to more tariff-critical industries such as automotive or technology.

- DiversificationThe company has a broad global base, which somewhat cushions the risks of individual markets.

Chart 3:

📊 Infographic: Potential impact on EBIT (estimate)

The following chart shows the estimated impact of a hypothetical 20% tariff on Novo Nordisk's EBIT:

⚠️ Note:

This article does not constitute investment advice. All content is for information purposes only and does not replace individual advice. Please inform yourself independently before making any investment decisions.

🔖 Hashtags for reach & context:

#NovoNordisk
#Zölle
#USHandelspolitik
#Anlagestrategie
#Makroökonomie
#Pharma
#Fed
#Inflation
#Aktienanalyse
#GetQuin
#Investieren
#Wirtschaftspolitik
#EBIT
#TradeWar

Sources:

Graphic 1:

https://goldesel.de/artikel/die-zukuenftig-wertvollsten-unternehmen-der-welt

Graph 3:

https://finanzmarktwelt.de/usa-zoelle-wie-zu-zeiten-der-weltwirtschaftskrise-die-gefahren-338163/

$NOVO B (-7,73 %) The chart shows the period from the strong price performance in March/April 2021. From this point onwards, the price was supported by strong momentum and closely followed the red line, which represents the second standard deviation of the VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price). This second standard deviation ran quite parallel above the SMA50 until the trend reversed in July 2024.

The significant volume peaks were in the price ranges around € 51, € 70 and € 83. Numerous positions were built up between April and November 2022, particularly in the €51 range. The price is currently at the lower edge of the first standard deviation of the VWAPwhich lies exactly on one of these volume peaks. From a technical perspective, this could represent a strong support zone. The next few weeks, up to the earnings on 7 May, will show whether institutional investors defend their trades from this area.

A positive scenario would be a bounce up to the next volume peak around € 70 or even beyond to above the VWAP (blue line). A negative scenario on the other hand, could mean a fall in the share price to around € 40.

After the share price reached the lower edge of the first standard deviation of the VWAP yesterday, I increased my Novo position by a further 10%. Despite the current price losses, which are likely to affect many investors, the fundamental figures make me optimistic about the future.

• Estimates for sales and EPS for the next few years are still rising
• P/E ratio, KUV and KBV are at the same levels as in 2018
• Gross margin is >80%, EBITDA margin >50%,
• Cash flow from operating activities continues to rise.

Some have already pulled the ripcord and exited $NOVO B (-7,73 %) exited. My position is already quite large for my individual share positions with a total of 220 shares, so I may well adjust the position size again slightly in the event of a bounce. Let's see what happens after the earnings on May 7?

How do you see Novo? Have you already pulled the ripcord, or do you have strong nerves and are taking advantage of the current price weakness to expand a market leader in the diabetes sector?

@Sebi I would also like to see a picture including RSI and MACD - thanks for pointing this out - I'm sure many people will find it interesting!

What is the thought process of all these self-proclaimed millionaire profit traders? The same people who celebrated a big fat party at the ATH are now suddenly talking about "realizing losses and selling everything"

What has fundamentally changed in this brutal company that everyone is shitting their pants :///

The next tranche will be at €45. See you at the top my investor friends :)

Lilly $LLY (+14,61 %) since weeks in minus finally in plus again 😄 and Novo$NOVO B (-7,73 %) in free flight🙈

Had bet on a turnaround after the first fall and was stopped out today. There are worse things, you can't always be right 😉

$NOVO B (-7,73 %)

The Novo share is falling and falling. The threat of tariffs and Eli Lily are particularly noticeable at the moment. It is therefore speculation on better study results from Novo and lower tariffs than expected.

Nevertheless, we will soon be at 3% dividend yields. Do you see this as an anti-cyclical opportunity with high dividend growth?

$LLY (+14,61 %) 623.1 billion € (64.41 P/E)

$NOVO B (-7,73 %) 193.2 billion € (18.81 P/E)

$LLY (+14,61 %) Profit

2021: € 6.3 billion (+2.78%)

2022: € 6.8 billion (-3.37%)

2023: € 5.3 billion (-20.51%)

2024: € 10.9 billion (+105.63%)

$NOVO B (-7,73 %) Profit

2021: € 6.4 billion (+13.34%)

2022: € 7.5 billion (+16.27%)

2023: € 11.2 billion (+50.71%)

2024: € 13.5 billion (+20.68%)

I'm not that deep in the pharma scene so can someone explain to me why $LLY (+14,61 %) is worth 3x as much as $NOVO B (-7,73 %) although the growth is weaker?

$NOVO B (-7,73 %)

📊 Fundamental key figures

• Turnover 2024DKK 290.4 billion (+26% compared to the previous year)
• EBITDA margin 2024approx. 51 %
• Forecast for 2025: Revenue growth in the low double-digit range, which is below the previous year's level

Analysts expect earnings per share to average DKK 26.91 in 2025, which corresponds to an increase of around 18.7

🧪 Product pipeline and competition

Novo Nordisk remains the leader in diabetes and obesity with established products such as Ozempic and Wegovy. However, Eli Lilly is gaining market share with Zepbound and Mounjaro. The disappointing study results for CagriSema increase the pressure on Novo Nordisk to strengthen its product pipeline.

📈 Analyst opinions and price targets

Analysts' opinions are mixed. Some recommend buying the share, while others advise caution. The price targets for 2025 vary between DKK 473 and DKK 540, which implies a moderate upside potential of up to 15% compared to the current price.

🧭 Conclusion

In the medium term, Novo Nordisk remains a solid company with strong fundamentals and a leading position in diabetes. However, increasing competition in the obesity market, disappointing trial results and regulatory uncertainties weigh on the short-term outlook. For risk-conscious investors with a long-term horizon, the current valuation could nevertheless be attractive.

$NOVO B (-7,73 %)

Are there any new studies from $LLY (+14,61 %) ???