Inflation data from the USA continues to complicate the Fed's monetary policy course. The consumer price index (CPI) for June was 2.7% year-on-year, slightly above expectations (forecast: 2.6%), while the core CPI rose to 2.9%. The strongest price increases were seen in goods (such as furniture and clothing) and in the energy sector, while car prices fell - presumably due to purchases brought forward in advance of new tariffs.

However, producer prices (PPI) painted a less worrying picture: they remained unchanged month-on-month and rose by only 2.3% year-on-year - below expectations.

The forward-looking data is more worrying: The University of Michigan's 12-month inflation expectations remain at an elevated 5%, influenced by sharply rising tariffs (from 2.3% at the end of 2024 to 13% in June and an expected 17% by August 1). Customs revenue collected in June amounted to USD 26 billion - almost four times the monthly average for the year to date.

The US dollar has depreciated by 9.3% since the beginning of the year, while commodity prices - especially for industrial metals - are on the rise. All of this indicates that the risk of inflation remains.

Crypto: Milestone week in Washington

This week marked significant progress in US crypto legislation:

• The Genius Actwhich regulates stablecoins, was passed by the House of Representatives and is now on President Trump's desk for signature.
• The Clarity Actwhich defines the responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC, has also been passed and now goes to the Senate.
• The Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act was also passed and will have a significant impact on the future structure of central bank digital currencies in the US.

These legislative initiatives represent the most coordinated regulatory offensive for digital assets in US history to date - and could thus reduce uncertainty for advisors and investors with crypto exposure.

Institutional flows: Bitcoin on the balance sheet

MicroStrategy has acquired another 4,225 $BTC (+0,27 %) and now holds a total of 601,550 BTC. The company continues to finance its holdings through the issuance of preferred shares, whose obligations now amount to around USD 60 million annually. At the same time, operating cash flow has remained negative since Q2 2024.

Cantor Fitzgerald is planning a second bitcoin treasury vehicle in collaboration with Blockstreamwith a planned initial contribution of 25,000 BTC (approximately USD 3 billion). Blockstream CEO Adam Back is to take a leading role in this.

I sold my 0.1 $BTC (+0,27 %) for just under 123,000 USD after doubling my stake. Of course, I can always do more, but I'm happy with my purchase and sale and my profit here. Now it's time to wait for the altcoin season. I currently still hold 2 $ETH (+0,53 %) , 17 $SOL (+0,36 %) and a few smaller positions that will hopefully follow soon. My goal, as with many others: To take profits before the hype turns again. Who is waiting? 🚀

Fortunately, the index also shows that Bitcoin dominance is falling and the market cap of altcoins is rising sharply. 🥳📈

$BTC (+0,27 %)

Bitcoin cycle: Daily analysis of the most important indicators with Google Trends for @stefan_21

Status: July 18, 2025

1. bitcoin dominance (BTC.D)

- Value: 61.6%. Dominance has fallen significantly from the local high (65% on June 27). The development indicates an increased rotation of capital towards altcoins; Ethereum (10.9%) and "Others" (27.6%) are gaining market share.

- Assessment: The signal points to an incipient altcoin season, but Bitcoin remains the market leader.

2. liquidity & M2's 100-day lag effect

- Global M2: Around USD 93.7 trillion (July 2025), with 7.45% year-on-year growth. US M2 is also at a record high of USD 21.94 trillion.

- Market significance: Growing money supply continues to support the trend towards risk assets.

- Valuation: Continuing supportive liquidity, no visible plateau.

3. altcoin market/alt-season indicators

- Altcoin Season Index: Climbed from 11 to 27 in July and shows growing altcoin activity, but not yet a classic altcoin season.

- Market capitalization: Capital is flowing noticeably into altcoins, with Solana, Cardano and XRP in particular recording strong gains in the last 24 hours.

- Valuation: Early phase of a possible alt season, but no broad outperformance so far.

4th Coinbase app ranking

- Ranking: Coinbase continues to rise, currently ranked 137th in the US app charts (after 386th in June). Previous blow-off tops were usually only achieved with placements in the top 10 to top 1.

- Assessment: Clearly growing retail interest, but no FOMO extreme phase yet.

5 Relative Strength Index (RSI, Bitcoin)

- RSI (daily): Above 70 (as of July 18); this signals a short-term overheated market. Several technical reversal signals point to a possible correction in the near future.

- Assessment: Caution, overheating signals are accumulating.

6 Google Trends (search interest "Bitcoin")

- Index: Google Trends for "Bitcoin" remains moderate at around 30, far below the peaks of past cycles. Even after new all-time highs, there are no signs of massive retail FOMO.

- Valuation: Retail euphoria remains low compared to price momentum.

7 ETF inflows & institutional demand

- Performance: Bitcoin ETFs continue to see unprecedented inflows - over USD 4bn in July, with several days over USD 1bn. Institutional interest remains strong; BlackRock ETF dominates with 83bn AUM.

- Rating: No top signal, high professional demand pressure.

8. on-chain data & whale activity

- Observations: Whale inflows to exchanges have recently increased significantly (by USD 1.5bn); large holders have distributed approx. 36,000 BTC in the last 8 days. In addition, there have been conspicuous transfers from dormant wallets (e.g. 40,000 BTC from 2011 address), which may cause short-term volatility.

- Assessment: Increasing distribution of large addresses calls for caution, but is not a classic blow-off top.

9. price & trend

- Current price: approx. USD 118,600. After all-time high at $122,800 there is consolidation and increased volatility.

- Assessment: Trend remains upward, short-term corrections possible.

Summary of indicators (July 18, 2025)

Conclusion

- The bull market remains fundamentally intact: Liquidity, ETF inflows and on-chain activity support the medium-term uptrend.

- Clear early warning signal: declining Bitcoin dominance, strong altcoin gains and an overheated daily RSI (>70) increase the risk of a correction in the short term.

- Retail euphoria remains manageable (App/Google Trends), which suggests that the final phase is not yet exhausted.

$BTC (+0,27 %) The cycle is in full swing :-)

Hi, I am going to share, after the last changes, the current portfolio, with a one year investment term forecast.

Thanks to your advice, I reduced the TER of the main investments (grouping funds in the same MSCI World) and modified the ETFs with approximate term of 3 months in them.

Current portfolio:

Fund (75%)

$J6FF22

Equities (15%)

$IDR (+0,41 %)

$NVDA (-0,68 %)

$MTN (+0 %)

$1810 (+0,8 %)

...

(Partial purchase, subject to short term evolution)

$T (-0,56 %)

$ENEL (+0,16 %)

$PKO (+2,08 %)

$HSBA (-0,28 %)

$BHP (-0,06 %)

ETF (Investment plan, subject to change depending on performance) 10%.

$IVDF (-0,27 %)

$C051 (-0,25 %)

$EIMI (-0,1 %)

$SUJD (-0,74 %)

$CEA1 (-0,32 %)

$IBZL (-2,69 %)

$VEUR (-0,39 %)

$IGLN (+0,2 %)

Cryptos: (experimental, less than 5%)

$BTC (+0,27 %)

$ETH (+0,53 %)

$TRX (-1,25 %)

I welcome your suggestions for improvement.

Best regards.

Smells like I was right about bitcoin.

price predictions 25

$BTC (+0,27 %) 125k

$ETH (+0,53 %) 6,6k

What do you think?

And then $SQD (+3,2 %) alt Season with wild ath

no advice, just my own thoughts

The independent journalist "LOla L33tz" has managed to get an answer from the official side of the US Marshal Service regarding the current $BTC (+0,27 %) stocks.

-> The stock amounts to approx. 28,988 BTC

This raises 1.2 small questions, as the US government should actually be sitting on around 200,000 Bitcoin due to confiscations from Silk Road, among others😂

If this turns out to be true, the 50k that Saxony has sold is still harmless😅

David Bailey, founder of Bitcoin Magazine, had promised a reward of $10k for the information, which he has already paid:

https://x.com/L0laL33tz/status/1945557346685452406?t=Aphd8_-aFbG2uI_XwuqvGA&s=19

https://www.therage.co/btc-held-by-the-us-marshal-service/

Hi there.

I would like your opinion on rebalancing my portfolio. So far I have been a bit haphazard, which I would like to change more and more.

Some individual positions are definitely too large and others too small (due to bonuses in TR or bad buys).

I would now like to build up the core:

• $VHYL (-0,27 %)
• 
  $XSX6 (+0,09 %)
• and a third ETF (?)

Keep and run as a savings plan in any case $ALV (-0,46 %) and $O (-0,12 %).

I still find the following interesting $NVDA (-0,68 %) and $AAPL (+0,13 %) -> but I would probably have to reduce the individual positions?

$BTC (+0,27 %) I would potentially hold and combine with $EWG2 (+0 %) as satellites in the future.

I'm rather unsure about the other positions - I'd rather wait for the exit, but I would most likely keep $BNTX (-1,1 %)

Please don't be too harsh on my portfolio 🙈 I'm aware that I've made some mistakes ...