A solid quarter for $CP (+0,36 %)

Only the operating ratio suffered somewhat, as fuel prices rose by 56%, although overall fuel efficiency improved by 3%.

I've been looking for a company from the emerging markets that might be a good fit for my portfolio for a while now.

Far away from the big earnings, I struck today and bought the first tranche. $PAC (+2,84 %) has now moved in with me.

For those who are interested, I have put together the most important information so that you can get a rough overview.

The text comes without AI very quickly in bullet points 🧐

$PAC (+2,84 %) offers a boring business, but it is very profitable and could be of interest to some people who are interested in cash flow 💸.

It operates 12 airports, mainly in Mexico and one in Jamaica among them:

• Guadalajara (important for industry)
• Tijuana (keyword nearshoring/USA)
• Los Cabos & Puerto Vallarta (tourism)

As you can already guess, the main income comes from regulated tariffs for landings/take-offs and from the non-regulated business of duty-free and parking.

Who is responsible for the positive development?

Raul Revuelta Musalem (CEO) has been at the helm since 2018 $PAC (+2,84 %) since 2018 and is considered one of the most effective CEOs in the transportation sector. With over 20 years of experience in finance and infrastructure, the money seems to be in good hands with him. The main focus is on cost control and maximizing margins with over 65% EBITDA a flagship for such a cost-intensive sector.

Without further ado, here is a quick and dirty overview of some of the most important data 🛩️

My Monk thinks that the very reliable and predictable quarterly dividends of the strong US stocks are excellent, but I believe that we cannot deny the Mexicans entry based on their performance.

The recovery after Covid is decent and I think the figures speak for themselves. This is less about speculation and quick price gains, but it is a quality company from Latin America with relatively good growth prospects ✅

What is the current situation? There was a small dip in February that I unfortunately wasn't able to take with me, as the passenger figures from tourism were somewhat disappointing. Otherwise, the share price seems to be moving in the right direction again, and I think it's currently still available at a fair price.

But what does the near future hold?

• The World Cup in Mexico, where we could see very good figures in the short term
• Relocation of industry from China to Mexico, where Mexican transshipment points could benefit as Mexico is an increasingly important partner of the USA
• Keyword CBX, $PAC (+2,84 %) is making efforts to enter the market operationally. The Cross Border Xpress is virtually an exclusive terminal that connects San Diego and Tijuana, thus simplifying the normal crossing of borders.
• Tariffs and investments with the state are already signed and sealed until 2029, so there are no surprises here for the time being

What about the risks?

• Clearly subject to $PAC (+2,84 %) political regulation
• Global crises ala Covid can seriously affect the business
• Currency risk/emerging markets

Why did I choose $PAC (+2,84 %) decided? On the one hand, the figures are more than solid, there is a certain moat and there is no need to be afraid of the competition, plus there is a synergy on my infrastructure bet that includes Mexico/USA & Canada, which is why I invested in $CP (+0,36 %) at the end of last year. I am aiming for a size of around 20 shares for the time being, and I would also like to $CP (+0,36 %) hopefully I can complete this by the end of July.

What do you think of boring cash flow moats? Have I missed something and am I completely wrong? Will Mr. Prompt be gracious with my thought processes? 😰 @Raketentoni

PS: Despite ADR and the NYSE being open, you pay a decent spread here, so I can't actually sell anymore 🫡

Today, CEO Keith Creel and CFO Nadeem Velani spoke about the near future of $CP (+0,36 %) and answered questions.

Among other things, they talked about:

• Strong Cost Control
• Double digit Earnings
• Industry leading growth through snyergies (Merger with KS)
• CAPEX decrease
• Shareholder return increase

Driven by a strong Q3/25, Keith Creel expects your efforts to develop positively into year 26.

• Mexican Midwest Express up +48% YoY
• Next, through partnership with $CSX (+1,62 %) the Southeast Mexican Express, 52 miles of track near Alabama were acquired at Investor Day, which will help CSX transport over this route.

Volumes in Q4/25 continue to look solid:

• October slight decrease
• November up about +5%
• December also mid/single (will not decrease)

Guidance for 2026 was only briefly mentioned, as the quarterly report with full guidance will be published in January

• Growth about mid single digits
• About 1.0 to 1.5 Margin improvements
• EPS growth at least 10% (without present economy pressure) expected 15%
• CAPEX amounts to approx. 2.6 - 2.8B

Shareholders were thanked for their patience and it was also announced that the company is at a point where CAPEX can be reduced somewhat in order to increase the dividend (payout ratio) and share buybacks are being considered. Further details will be provided in the Q4/25 report.

Keith Creel was also asked about his relationship with the company, whether he would like to/could quit or could imagine working somewhere else.

Keith responded freely in bullet points:

• It was his dream to enter into the merger with Kansas City
• He wants to stay with the team (10+ years) and finish the job
• Currently there is no firm exit
• If he wanted to work somewhere else, he would have done it already

Summary:

Guidance remains strong for the Railroad sector and especially growth, which seems to be even stronger in the next quarter. In addition, the management team, including the CEO, is very committed and wants to continue to work on the strongest growth.

Source:

CPKC Webcast @ 2025 UBS Global Industrials and Transportation Conference

I decided against $UNP (+1,79 %) and just went shopping on the walk. $CP (+0,36 %) shopping.

The stock fits well into my portfolio, the sector is currently at its lowest point and this is where I hope to see the most growth with a small dividend 💸

Another 16 shares will be bought at the end of the month.

CP has what I missed with CNR. Strong and experienced management that operates cost-efficiently and is focusing on high growth (in terms of the business) through the acquisition of Kansas City Southern.

Yesterday I decided to part with my position at a slight loss. $CNR (+0,2 %) position with some loss... 🚋

As one of my first major investments and also intended as a long-term position, I decided to do so at the time after only a brief look at the superficial key figures. I wasn't really involved here yet and was in the "just try it out" phase. Of course, I also paid far too much for the paper... 😥

Due to the fact that I am taking my journey in the stock/investing universe more and more seriously and I am constantly trying to sift through more information and evaluate it better in order to make informed decisions. Yesterday I decided to draw the line here, mainly due to the management:

When Tracey took over Q1/22 it looked something like this:

EPS C$1.32 // long term debt C$13.383M // net debt to EBITDA 1.92 // shares out 700M

Arrived today in Q3/25:

EPS C$1.87 // long term debt C$21.120M // net debt to EBITDA 2.54 // shares out 620M

Only 6% growth was reported for earnings, and CAPEX of C$2.8B was announced again. The outlook remains at the lower end of the range with mid to high single digit EPS growth...

In addition, there is also the increased pressure from direct competition from CPKC.

During this time, around $8B in new debt was raised (at fairly high interest rates) to buy back shares at the highest valuation. At the same time, the growth prospects are not really exciting and there is a lot of turnover in the management team.

For me, the new M-team does not seem to be really experienced and the handling of the capital allocation is more than questionable.

That's why I'm calling it a day for now ❌

In any case, I've learned something again with this stock and hopefully I can and will project this into the future. I'm now taking much more time with the evaluation and can hold back instead of immediately dumping my money into the market (individual stocks).

I haven't quite thought about where to allocate the money I've freed up yet, but I'm already interested in taking a position in $CP (+0,36 %) or possibly $UNP (+1,79 %) build up.

I know it's looooong 😂But the valuation of $CP (+0,36 %) is currently coming down even further, the growth story seems interesting and the management also looks good.

I may also use the money freed up to increase other positions in the portfolio, we'll see.

Do you have any tips or experience in this regard? Do you check the figures first or whether the management can/will deal with them?

2024

Portfolio value (performance neutral)

Target 52 000€ -> +18 000€

Achieved 62 300€ -> +28 300€

Target 2025 -> 77 000€

Gross dividend

Target 1000€

Achieved 1018€

expected 2025 -> 1290€+

Daily allowance

Target 12 000€

Reached 13 300€

I would like to reach €15,000 by the end of 2025.

As I have an annual commute of 22,000 km, I'll have to buy a new car in 4 - 5 years' time if my current one no longer works.

In addition, several positions were sold in Q3 - Q4 ($O (+0,66 %)
$BATS (+1,64 %)
$SIX2 (-0,4 %)
$ARCC (+1,16 %)
$CVS (+4,78 %)
$UNP (+1,79 %)$NESN (+0,21 %) ) and the focus was also placed on higher growth and dividend growth.

In principle, I have nothing against $UNP (+1,79 %) but I see the growth opportunities at $CP (+0,36 %) higher as well as a higher profit margin as soon as the acquisition of Kansas City has been optimally integrated into the company in order to work more efficiently.

The trees are putting on their golden-yellow dress, it's getting rainy again and the temperatures are dropping. The golden fall is just around the corner. I take advantage of the cold by only taking cold showers and prepare myself for winter ice bathing. Over the next few days, I'll be swimming in cold water, avoiding hot showers like the plague. Meanwhile, the depot is running. Time for a look back.

I present the following points for the past month of September 2024:

➡️ SHARES

➡️ ETFS

➡️ DISTRIBUTIONS

➡️ CASHBACK

➡️ AFTER-PURCHASES

➡️ P2P CREDITS

➡️ CRYPTO

➡️ WHAT IS REALLY IMPORTANT

➡️ OUTLOOK

➡️ Shares

After the top of the class $AVGO (+4,47 %) has deflated, it is now shifting up a few gears again. The +121% performance of $AVGO (+4,47 %) increased to +178% last month. There is still some way to go to +200%, but perhaps I will soon have the first trebler in my portfolio. That puts me in a good mood! The heavyweight, which also accounts for the largest volume among the individual stocks in my share portfolio, is attracting other heavyweights such as $WMT (+0,25 %) and $NFLX (-0,51 %) behind it. The last few months have also seen $SAP (-1,12 %) steadily risen in my portfolio and has now already reached 4th place, accompanied by $AAPL (-0,05 %) . The former leader $NOVO B (-1,03 %) continues to fall but is still performing well. There are also other stocks that are fighting their way up that I did not expect at the time. For example one $ABBV (+0,27 %) or $BAC (+1,11 %) .

If I look at the performance, I am also spoiled with great results behind the winner. $NFLX (-0,51 %) shines with +98%, $NOVO B (-1,03 %) with +74% and $SAP (-1,12 %) with +72%. When I added the stocks to my portfolio, I would never have imagined that there would be any stocks in my gold box that could double. I'll probably have several of them next year.

And I'm not worried about the basement floor either, as the negative performances are constantly moving towards zero. Step by step. There was also a change in the order at the lower end due to additional purchases. My smallest positions by volume are now $CP (+0,36 %) , $DHL (+0,32 %) and $OR (-0,16 %) in terms of performance they remain $NKE (-1,95 %) , $DHR (+1,37 %) and $CVX (+0,62 %) o.

➡️ ETFs

My beloved core retirement savings unit is growing and growing. The biggest chunk, the $VWRL (+0,12 %) already accounts for 13.4% of my entire securities portfolio. All I can say here is: stubbornly and steadily save a portion of your net salary every month in the boring bread-and-butter ETFs by standing order and savings plans, then you can successfully escape the monster of old-age poverty. In my opinion, everyone should do this. I'm a fan of distributions because they provide a steady additional income. And by saving continuously, this income increases. I also promote this in my private circle. I think it's a shame that so many people respond to my efforts to raise awareness with "Yes, but ...". By constantly hiding behind excuses that are always the same, people are driving themselves into poverty in old age. Even worse are those who think shares (or securities in general) are the devil's plaything and moan about pensions. On the one hand, they don't understand how the pay-as-you-go system really works, and on the other, they completely lack basic financial education. They think they are throwing money into a certain pot from which they can later withdraw. Interestingly, this is only the case with their own portfolio, not with the state pension.

In addition to broadly diversified standard ETFs, I like to put unplanned inflows into dividend ETFs. I want cash flow that will one day cover my living expenses.

➡️ Dividends

I received 33 distributions on 14 payout days in September. I am grateful for this additional income stream.

Unfortunately, I didn't manage to write the extra article I announced in my last post about how I deal with reinvestments last month. This is planned for this month. My plans $UPS (+0,31 %) and $HTGC (-1,19 %) into the savings plans remains in place. I already teased this in the last review.

➡️ Cashback

In September, I received a €40 voucher for scanning my daily purchases, which I used to buy overhead headphones that had been on my watchlist for a while. In line with my cashback procedure, I deducted the equivalent value of the voucher in euros from the corresponding provision and transferred it to the exchange. In this way, I use the benefit of the voucher as productive capital instead of just consuming more like others. My budgets for wear and tear and provisions are thus adhered to and the benefit indirectly finances my asset accumulation.

➡️ Subsequent purchases

Thanks to a small bonus, reimbursements from health insurance and supplementary dental insurance and the aforementioned voucher, I was able to make several additional purchases last month. These include the additional purchase of 2 $UPS (+0,31 %) and 6 $HTGC (-1,19 %) shares as individual additional purchases. I am convinced by both companies. I also invested €27 in the one-off savings plans $SPYD (+0,63 %) , €49 in the $TDIV (+0,49 %) and €44 in the $FGEQ (+0,16 %) invested. Simply to increase the cash flow from the investments. Bit by bit, the tap is being turned on further and further.

➡️ P2P loans

Over a long period of time, I have managed to reduce the amount of defaulted loans on my remaining platforms to a double or single-digit sum. All the rest has been withdrawn. Of course, no progress has been made with interest or redemption payments. I wish the operators would simply write off the rest without replacement so that I could ditch all the platforms. Bondora Go & Grow is an exception to this rule. This is running smoothly, but I'm not putting any new funds into it, I'm just letting it run.

➡️ Crypto

I'm not currently doing anything here. I advise everyone to study the debt cycle and the crypto cycle in order to understand price movements in the long term.

➡️ What is really important

I was on vacation at the end of the month into October, so I spent time with my ex's kids, whose social father I was allowed to be one. First I spent several days with the kids and my ex. I went out in the evenings with the older teenage girl, mainly to give her the attention she was looking for so that she could be the focus of attention herself. In October, we spontaneously went to the capital for a few days at the child's request. This kind of time together with all the experiences helps to strengthen and rebuild the bond, which has of course suffered in recent years, for example due to physical separation. There have been so many great moments over the years, both in the province and in the big city. Enjoying the peace and quiet in the evenings with a great view, listening to what moves her and then the trip to the metropolis with its light and dark sides. And so much more.

Why am I writing this? Because it's moments like these that make life worth living and give us strength in dark times. This is even more valuable than our beloved topics of finance and investment.

➡️ Outlook

The year-end spurt begins very soon. I am hoping for price magic like last year. But the crypto cycle will be even more exciting, as we expect prices to skyrocket at the turn of the year.

Left:

Instagram profile with review: https://www.instagram.com/frugalfreisein/

Threads: https://www.threads.net/@frugalfreisein

X Profile: https://x.com/frugalfreisein

GERIT Investment Partnership ⛵️

⚜️ 2023 ⚜️

Annual summary:

(with this post I can delete all others from my profile)

January:

Not only that I getquin 🖤 at the beginning of January discovered no, I also learned more about Ted Weschler as a person, about his strategy and function at Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B (+2,47 %) at Berkshire Hathaway.

Based on the information that came out of the interview with him, I made the assumption that he was responsible for the purchase of Ally Financial $ALLY (-1,01 %) purchase.

February:

"Shameless Cloning"

It was the time when I had been studying Mohnish Pabrai for months, his book "The Dhando Investor" and also copied Warren Buffett's sale of TSMC. $TSM (+2,38 %) was also copied.

So the move was very obvious and my first Ally Financial $ALLY (-1,01 %) shares found their way into the portfolio.

March:

Microsoft $MSFT (-1,35 %) announces in the course of the takeover of Activision Blizzard $ATVI a "10-year legal agreement" with Nintendo $7974 (-1,5 %) with Nintendo. Games such as Call of Duty will also be available on the Switch (2).

That was the first
milestone for my Nintendo investment case, which was released in December from the nostalgia out of nostalgia.

In March, however, there was another very special special
highlightwhich I will probably never forget:

I was on a Q&A Zoom call with Guy Spierwhom I studied very intensively alongside Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger, and it was through him that I came across Mohnish Pabrai in the first place. I was able to talk to him and also ask him a question.

On 15.03 another pleasant news in the media:

Canadian Pacific's $CP (+0,36 %) $28 billion merger with Kansas City Southern was approved.

April:

In April, my job took me 6 weeks to the south of Bavaria, at the time I had no idea that it would be not the last visit.

Here I took part in the community "I'm doing so well, I drive several 100 kilometers to drink bad beer - Challenge" and luckilythanks to the good Bavarian beer, "failed".

May:

The first investmentsetback of the year and unfortunately not the last.

21.05. Sea Limited $SE (-1,71 %) The share price fell from € 81 to € 64.50 after the quarterly figures.

There was also the first "Shameless Cloning" learning effect for me. So, although I did more research myself than with Ally Financial, Restoration Hardware $RH (-0,82 %) from Ted Weschler (/Todd Combs) but this position was suddenly dropped from the Berkshire portfolio and I was able to (fortunately) with a small sell with a small profit.

June:

In June Oliver @EValueinvest ) from his trip to Omaha, Nebraska to visit the Berkshire Hathaway
$BRK.A (+2,58 %)
Annual General Meeting and wrote a great article with lots of valuable tips about the event itself and went into detail about his highlights from the famous Q&A. In addition, he organized a little raffle where I won a baseball with the signatures of the two legends. two legends with the signatures of the two legends. I am still very grateful. 🙏🏻

July:

On 13.07 I have a small key figures & est. EPS analysis on Visa $V (+0,38 %) and a "more speculative" / time-limited buy.

August:

My first investor meeting!

This took place with a handful of people in Hamburg, I took a lot with me, was able to make contacts and simply had a good time.

At that time, I made my first arbitrage investment, Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (+0,1 %) spun off Kenvue $KVUE (+0 %) and floated it on the stock exchange.

So far, the "stock market year" has gone very well..

but that should change at the latest the day Sea Ltd. once again reported quarterly figures that probably didn't suit the market at all. The management's events and direction were foreseeable or at least should not have been so negatively surprising.

The two most negative points were:

> further share dilution

(capital dilution)

> renewed focus on aggressive growth, at the expense of profitability.

The share reacted accordingly and fell to a new 52-week low of € 37.50.

Here I also bought again bought again. Time will tell whether I am right with the investment, at the moment it doesn't feel like it.

When I started the investment, I did have 2 years for an entry entrybut indisputably made mistakes, at least in the valuation at the time, and paid too much. I now have to go through this and stick to the long-term perspective hold on.

September & October:

"The calm before the storm."

November:

Was the worst month, not only did I have to go back to Bavaria for a few weeks, I also had to deal with a few things in my private life and somehow everything came at once.

I had to change my bank at short notice, had to struggle with my health (I injured myself doing sports, among other things) and my long-term relationship fell apart, with Bavaria being one of the main arguments, so the weekend before I went down almost 850 km, I had a bad move, commuting something over 1200 km back and forth and only eating McDonalds $MCD (+1,24 %) only from McDonalds.

December:

finally vacation!

Spent 2 days with the family over Christmas and then from 27.12 to 06.01, spent the days in Denmark, New Year's Eve in Copenhagen and New Year's Day in the Airbnb beach house! 🌊🌊🏠 ❄️🇩🇰

Outlook 2024:

Stock market

There has been an update in the Nintendo investment case, a long-standing shareholder presented a comprehensive update in a Zoom call. It took two days to check all the figures, especially the theme park & movie division, as there was no longer a need to work with assumptions, as there are now relevant figures available.

This has now led to a major additional purchase at my fair value from 2022.

Professional

I am particularly looking forward to the professional outlook, so towards the end of the year I will be working for 4 months to Florida, USA 🇺🇸.

I remain excited, look forward to new challenges and am happy to be surprised again.

Private

I just want to concentrate on my health, get back into sport and take a break from work more often, eat out more, find an additional hobby and stop traveling. not forget about traveling. ✈️🌴!

Wishing you all an exciting 2024 and good health! ♥️

Yours
GERIT 🐅