Activision

GERIT Investment Partnership ⛵️

⚜️ 2023 ⚜️

Annual summary:

(with this post I can delete all others from my profile)

January:

Not only that I getquin 🖤 at the beginning of January discovered no, I also learned more about Ted Weschler as a person, about his strategy and function at Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B (+2,47 %) at Berkshire Hathaway.

Based on the information that came out of the interview with him, I made the assumption that he was responsible for the purchase of Ally Financial $ALLY (-1,01 %) purchase.

February:

"Shameless Cloning"

It was the time when I had been studying Mohnish Pabrai for months, his book "The Dhando Investor" and also copied Warren Buffett's sale of TSMC. $TSM (+2,38 %) was also copied.

So the move was very obvious and my first Ally Financial $ALLY (-1,01 %) shares found their way into the portfolio.

March:

Microsoft $MSFT (-1,35 %) announces in the course of the takeover of Activision Blizzard $ATVI a "10-year legal agreement" with Nintendo $7974 (-1,5 %) with Nintendo. Games such as Call of Duty will also be available on the Switch (2).

That was the first
milestone for my Nintendo investment case, which was released in December from the nostalgia out of nostalgia.

In March, however, there was another very special special
highlightwhich I will probably never forget:

I was on a Q&A Zoom call with Guy Spierwhom I studied very intensively alongside Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger, and it was through him that I came across Mohnish Pabrai in the first place. I was able to talk to him and also ask him a question.

On 15.03 another pleasant news in the media:

Canadian Pacific's $CP (+0,36 %) $28 billion merger with Kansas City Southern was approved.

April:

In April, my job took me 6 weeks to the south of Bavaria, at the time I had no idea that it would be not the last visit.

Here I took part in the community "I'm doing so well, I drive several 100 kilometers to drink bad beer - Challenge" and luckilythanks to the good Bavarian beer, "failed".

May:

The first investmentsetback of the year and unfortunately not the last.

21.05. Sea Limited $SE (-1,71 %) The share price fell from € 81 to € 64.50 after the quarterly figures.

There was also the first "Shameless Cloning" learning effect for me. So, although I did more research myself than with Ally Financial, Restoration Hardware $RH (-0,82 %) from Ted Weschler (/Todd Combs) but this position was suddenly dropped from the Berkshire portfolio and I was able to (fortunately) with a small sell with a small profit.

June:

In June Oliver @EValueinvest ) from his trip to Omaha, Nebraska to visit the Berkshire Hathaway
$BRK.A (+2,58 %)
Annual General Meeting and wrote a great article with lots of valuable tips about the event itself and went into detail about his highlights from the famous Q&A. In addition, he organized a little raffle where I won a baseball with the signatures of the two legends. two legends with the signatures of the two legends. I am still very grateful. 🙏🏻

July:

On 13.07 I have a small key figures & est. EPS analysis on Visa $V (+0,38 %) and a "more speculative" / time-limited buy.

August:

My first investor meeting!

This took place with a handful of people in Hamburg, I took a lot with me, was able to make contacts and simply had a good time.

At that time, I made my first arbitrage investment, Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (+0,1 %) spun off Kenvue $KVUE (+0 %) and floated it on the stock exchange.

So far, the "stock market year" has gone very well..

but that should change at the latest the day Sea Ltd. once again reported quarterly figures that probably didn't suit the market at all. The management's events and direction were foreseeable or at least should not have been so negatively surprising.

The two most negative points were:

> further share dilution

(capital dilution)

> renewed focus on aggressive growth, at the expense of profitability.

The share reacted accordingly and fell to a new 52-week low of € 37.50.

Here I also bought again bought again. Time will tell whether I am right with the investment, at the moment it doesn't feel like it.

When I started the investment, I did have 2 years for an entry entrybut indisputably made mistakes, at least in the valuation at the time, and paid too much. I now have to go through this and stick to the long-term perspective hold on.

September & October:

"The calm before the storm."

November:

Was the worst month, not only did I have to go back to Bavaria for a few weeks, I also had to deal with a few things in my private life and somehow everything came at once.

I had to change my bank at short notice, had to struggle with my health (I injured myself doing sports, among other things) and my long-term relationship fell apart, with Bavaria being one of the main arguments, so the weekend before I went down almost 850 km, I had a bad move, commuting something over 1200 km back and forth and only eating McDonalds $MCD (+1,24 %) only from McDonalds.

December:

finally vacation!

Spent 2 days with the family over Christmas and then from 27.12 to 06.01, spent the days in Denmark, New Year's Eve in Copenhagen and New Year's Day in the Airbnb beach house! 🌊🌊🏠 ❄️🇩🇰

Outlook 2024:

Stock market

There has been an update in the Nintendo investment case, a long-standing shareholder presented a comprehensive update in a Zoom call. It took two days to check all the figures, especially the theme park & movie division, as there was no longer a need to work with assumptions, as there are now relevant figures available.

This has now led to a major additional purchase at my fair value from 2022.

Professional

I am particularly looking forward to the professional outlook, so towards the end of the year I will be working for 4 months to Florida, USA 🇺🇸.

I remain excited, look forward to new challenges and am happy to be surprised again.

Private

I just want to concentrate on my health, get back into sport and take a break from work more often, eat out more, find an additional hobby and stop traveling. not forget about traveling. ✈️🌴!

Wishing you all an exciting 2024 and good health! ♥️

Yours
GERIT 🐅

Collected some speculative capital again.

I think I will divide it into $VNA (-1,02 %) , $TTWO (+4,42 %) , $EUZ (-0,18 %) and 10 shares $TSLA (+0,67 %) .

That worked out well for a change. 👍🏻

Was a little surprised when I looked today times in the depot and have found that $ATVI was already sold automatically. Thought that everything still takes a little longer 😅

With a return of 12.13%, my bet on the Microsoft acquisition paid off.

$ATVI

The way is probably clear with this.

https://www.xboxdynasty.de/news/activision-blizzard/uebernahme-zugestimmt-ftc-klage-abgewiesen/

$ATVI could not find any info on the net, is there a reason why the dividend was cancelled at activision?

UK blocked $ATVI Acquisition

The Activision Blizzard share then falls 10%.

However, I still believe in my investment case of an arbitrage bet, because the takeover does not lead to any competitive disadvantages. So far, the deal has already been approved by numerous countries and I think the UK will also agree in the end. The only question is how long it will take, because in the arbitrage bet there is only 30% potential up to the takeover price. If the legal processes drag on for several years, it would no longer be worth the risk/return ratio. Microsoft will, however, make corresponding assurances so that the takeover goes through as planned in mid-2023.

$ATVI
Why the current situation around the Activision Blizzard acquisition could offer a good opportunity

If you look at the criticisms of the antitrust authorities and Sony, it always comes down to one topic: Call of Duty!

It is feared that Microsoft's power in the gaming industry could become too great, they want to disadvantage gamers and put the competition under pressure. It is mostly ignored that Microsoft has made a clear and binding statement in this regard, ruling out the possibility of CoD becoming Xbox exclusive in the next 10 years. Since the biggest point of criticism has already been refuted by Microsoft itself, the other side might have problems finding arguments in court. In addition, there is the fact that Activision Blizzard really wants the takeover. Or rather, Kotick wants it, because he would rather receive billions in severance pay than continue to run a heavily criticized company in whose mismanagement he is not insignificantly involved. The takeover by Microsoft could also have a positive influence on the industry in this aspect (sexism and aggressive personnel policies are not an issue at MS, as far as I know). If MS is smart they could also present this argument in court.

I personally estimate the probability of a successful takeover at over 90%! (Only my personal opinion, there are voices that are much more pessimistic).

Now we come to the alternative scenario, the takeover fails:

Although this would negatively impact the price in the first moment, which for me would be another good buying opportunity, but would recover mMn quite quickly and priced to the new circumstances. You have to keep in mind that the announced takeover was already a year ago. A fantastic year for AB with good results whereby especially CoD exceeded all expectations. The share price has stagnated since then because only the planned takeover is relevant, but the value of the company should have increased since then. A year in a strong growing industry in which they are among the largest would have had an impact on the share price under normal circumstances.

Therefore, I believe that even in the case of a failed takeover, you can currently get a good company at an attractive price. Should it fall after the burst of the takeover stronger than expected will be bought again and with a little patience, the investment should still be worthwhile.

In my opinion, we are currently in an extremely lucrative situation where you can either make a decent return over a short period of time or get a top company at a relatively low price. Win Win! For me, this is one of the best opportunities on the stock market where one is annoyed in retrospect why one did not see it. I will therefore, should the circumstances not change, strike again shortly.

No investment advice

Advantageous situation for shareholders

Tax reasons