Axa Action Forum

Analsyst updates, 08.11.

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- GOLDMAN upgrades BIONTECH from Neutral to Buy and raises price target from USD 90 to USD 137. $BNTX (-2,25 %)

- BOFA raises target price for UNDER ARMOUR from USD 9 to USD 13. Neutral. $UAA (+0,11 %)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for DELIVERY HERO from EUR 29 to EUR 35. Hold. $DHE

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SIEMENS from EUR 197 to EUR 200. Buy. $SIE (-3,08 %)

- JEFFERIES raises the price target for HOCHTIEF from EUR 135 to EUR 138. Buy. $HOT (-0,22 %)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS from EUR 60 to EUR 62. Buy. $SHL (-2,44 %)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for NORDEX from EUR 18 to EUR 19. Buy. $NDX1 (-4,24 %)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for RATIONAL from 832 EUR to 841 EUR. Hold. $RAA (+0,45 %)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the target price for AXA from 37 EUR to 39 EUR. Buy. $CS (-2,33 %)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for BASTEI LÜBBE from EUR 11.70 to EUR 12.20. Buy. $BST (-0,26 %)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for ARCELORMITTAL from EUR 28 to EUR 29. Buy. $MT (-3,39 %)

- DZ BANK raises the price target for SWISS RE from CHF 130 to CHF 140. Buy. $SREN (-1,65 %)

- ODDO BHF raises the price target for HEIDELBERG MATERIALS from EUR 99 to EUR 110. Neutral. $HEI (-2,58 %)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX raises the price target for DAIMLER TRUCK from EUR 35 to EUR 41. Hold. $DTG (-0,12 %)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX upgrades REDCARE PHARMACY from Reduce to Hold. $RDC (-5,06 %)

- ODDO BHF raises the price target for HENKEL from EUR 67 to EUR 73. Neutral. $HEN (-0,36 %)

- ODDO BHF raises the price target for FREENET from EUR 27 to EUR 28. Neutral. $FNTN (-1,63 %)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for ABOUT YOU from EUR 3.10 to EUR 3.40. Underweight. $YOU (-3,61 %)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for NEMETSCHEK from EUR 108 to EUR 125. Overweight. $NEM (-0,68 %)

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- BOFA lowers the price target for PINTEREST from USD 45 to USD 39. Buy. $PINS

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for DAIMLER TRUCK from EUR 56 to EUR 55. Buy. $DTG (-0,12 %)

- UBS lowers the price target for JCDECAUX from EUR 21.60 to EUR 18.50. Neutral. $DEC (-2,33 %)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for ADTRAN HOLDING from EUR 9.70 to EUR 9.30. Buy. $ADTN (-1,66 %)

- ODDO BHF lowers the price target for NORDEX from EUR 18 to EUR 17. Outperform. $NDX1 (-4,24 %)

- BARCLAYS lowers the target price for VESTAS from DKK 99 to DKK 80. Underweight. $VWS (-3,47 %)

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX lowers the price target for FRAPORT from EUR 62 to EUR 59. Buy. $FRA (-0,91 %)

- BARCLAYS lowers the target price for GSK from GBP 15.50 to GBP 14.50. Equal-Weight. $GSK

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for COMPUGROUP from EUR 23 to EUR 21. Buy. $COP (-3,73 %)

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for JUNGHEINRICH from EUR 41 to EUR 39. Buy. $JUN3 (-0,23 %)

- JEFFERIES lowers the target price for SUSS MICROTEC from EUR 87 to EUR 75. Buy. $SMHN (+1,66 %)

AXA Q3 2024 $CS (-2,33 %)

Financial performance:

AXA reported a 7% increase in gross written premiums and other income to €84.0 billion for the first nine months of 2024. This growth was consistent across all segments, with premiums in property and casualty insurance rising by 7% to EUR 44.5 billion and in life and health insurance also by 7% to EUR 38.2 billion.

Balance sheet overview:

The Solvency II ratio was 221% as at September 30, 2024, a decrease of 6 points since June 30. This decline was attributed to unfavorable market conditions, in particular falling interest rates and rising spreads in Europe.

Details of the income statement:

Premium income in the life insurance segment rose by 7% to €25.1 billion, driven by strong growth in unit-linked products and capital-light G/A savings products. Health insurance also recorded a 7% increase in premiums to 13.2 billion euros, boosted by positive price effects in various regions.

Key figures and profitability metrics:

The New Business Value (NBV) margin decreased by 0.5 points to 4.6%, mainly due to a less favorable business structure and changes in financial assumptions. The Solvency II ratio, a key measure of financial strength, was stable at 221%.

Segment overview:

• Property and casualty insurance: Premiums increased by 7% to €44.5 billion, with strong growth in the commercial insurance and AXA XL reinsurance business lines.
• Life and Health: Life insurance premiums increased by 7% to €25.1 billion, while health insurance premiums also increased by 7% to €13.2 billion.
• Asset Management: Sales grew by 6%, driven by higher management fees.

Competitive position:

AXA's diversified business model and strong market position in core markets contribute to stable results. Moody's upgraded the Group's rating outlook to "positive", confirming the company's financial strength.

Outlook and management statements:

The Group expects to continue its strong operating performance and is confident of achieving the targeted underlying earnings per share growth for 2024 within the target range of 6-8% CAGR for the period 2023-2026.

Risks and opportunities:

The decline in the Solvency II ratio highlights potential risks from market volatility. At the same time, the strong sales growth and the strategic focus on high-quality business areas offer significant growth opportunities.

Summary:

AXA shows a robust financial performance with sales growth of 7% in all segments. Despite market distortions, the balance sheet remains strong with a Solvency II ratio of 221%. Strategic initiatives in the areas of pricing and product offensive contributed to growth, particularly in the Life & Health and Property & Casualty segments. The outlook remains positive and the company expects sustainable profit growth in line with its long-term targets.

Positive aspects:

• Sales growth: AXA recorded a 7% increase in gross written premiums and other revenues, reaching €84.0 billion for the first nine months of 2024. This growth was evident in all segments and underlines the successful implementation of the growth strategy.
• High-performing Life & Health segment: Premiums in the life insurance segment rose by 7% to €25.1 billion, boosted by strong demand for unit-linked products and capital-light G/A savings products. Health insurance premiums also increased by 7% to 13.2 billion euros, supported by favorable price effects in various regions.
• Growth in Asset Management: Asset Management income increased by 6%, driven by higher management fees thanks to an increase in average assets under management as well as higher performance fees.
• Strong market position: AXA's diversified business model and leading market position in key markets have contributed to consistent results. Moody's confirmed the company's financial strength and raised the Group's outlook to "positive".
• Strategic initiatives: The company successfully implemented targeted pricing measures and improvements in customer loyalty, resulting in sales increases in all business areas and regions.

Negative aspects:

• Decrease in Solvency II ratio: The Solvency II ratio fell by 6 points to 221% as at September 30, 2024, impacted by unfavorable market conditions, including falling interest rates and widening spreads in Europe.
• Decline in the NBV margin: The New Business Value (NBV) margin fell by 0.5 points to 4.6%, due to a less favorable business structure and changes in financial assumptions.
• Negative net inflows in Asset Management: Despite overall growth, Asset Management recorded a negative third-party net outflow of EUR -3 billion, partially offsetting positive inflows from AXA Insurance and Asian joint ventures.
• Challenges in the private customer segment: In the property and casualty segment, premiums in the personal lines segment were partly eroded by lower volumes in the UK, Ireland and Germany. This reflects measures to restore profitability.
• Risks due to market volatility: The decline in the Solvency II ratio indicates potential risks from market volatility that could affect future financial stability and performance.

Your opinion on $CS (-2,33 %) AXA ?

Old Republic International Corporation- The stock for Opis?

Company presentation: Old Republic International Corporation

Old Republic International Corporation is a leading US insurance company specializing in comprehensive insurance and property solutions. The company emphasizes integrity, quality, service excellence and financial strength. With a history of over 90 years, Old Republic International has earned a first-class reputation for outstanding customer service and fair business practices.

Historical Development

Founded over 90 years ago, Old Republic $ORI (+1,24 %) Republic International has developed into one of the leading players in the insurance industry through steady growth and the establishment of long-term partnerships. These years of experience and solid background have made the company a trusted name in the insurance sector.

Business model

Old Republic International's business model is based on providing responsible and sustainable insurance and real estate solutions. The company aims to create equal value for its shareholders, employees and customers while generating stable returns. Old Republic International takes a customer-oriented approach and places particular emphasis on long-term relationships and financial stability.

Core competencies

Old Republic International is characterized by the following core competencies:

• Integrity and Quality: The company is known for its high standards of integrity and quality in all areas of its business.
• Excellent customer service: Old Republic International has earned a reputation for outstanding customer service, resulting in long-lasting customer relationships.
• Financial Strength: The company's solid financial stability is one of its greatest strengths, enabling it to reliably meet its obligations to customers and shareholders.

Future prospects and strategic initiatives

Old Republic International strives to continue to meet high expectations of financial stability and trust. To further strengthen its position in the insurance industry, the company plans to capitalize on new growth opportunities. Strategic initiatives could include entering new markets, introducing innovative products and services and increasing operational efficiency. These measures should help to achieve the strategic goals and strengthen the company's market position in the long term.

Insider shareholdings

- Arnold Levy Steiner: 0.25%

- Craig Richard Smiddy: 0.07%

- Rande Keith Yeager: 0.06%

- Stephen Joseph Oberst: 0.06%

- Spencer LeRoy: 0.04%

- Stephen Robert Walker: 0.03%

- William Todd Gray: 0.03%

- Thomas Andrew Dare: 0.02%

- Francis Joseph Sodaro: 0.02%

- Jeffrey Patrick Lange: 0.02%

- Carolyn Jean Monroe: 0.01%

- Steven James Bateman: 0.01%

- John Maynard Dixon: 0.01%

- Fredricka Taubitz: 0.01%

- Glenn W. Reed: 0.01%

- Charles James Kovaleski: 0.01%

- Lisa Jeffries Caldwell: 0%

- Michael Denard Kennedy: 0%

- Peter Boyd McNitt: 0%

- Barbara Ann Adachi: 0%

This means that the insiders of Old Republic International Corporation only hold a total of around 0.66% of the shares in the company. But this is hardly surprising for an older company. However, this means that nobody has "skin in the game".

Margins top of the notch

Compared to other insurance companies, Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) has an exceptional gross margin. At 62.95%, this is more than twice as high as the next best competitor and illustrates how efficiently the company is managed and how profitable its customer relationships are.

Sales development

Old Republic International Corporation's sales are currently stagnating at around USD 7 billion and are not showing any significant growth. Growth rates are even slightly negative. However, this is not necessarily an alarming sign if the company is simultaneously working more efficiently and retaining high-quality customers. As is usual with insurance companies, the net result also shows a certain stagnation. However, it should be borne in mind that the company would be extremely profitable in years with few claims.

Sales distribution and EBT influence

A look at the distribution of turnover shows that the majority of revenue comes from insurance income, which can be seen as positive. This means that Old Republic International (ORI) is less dependent on interest income or investment gains. A closer look at the sources of income makes it clear that investments are not ORI's core strength.

However, it is important to note that ORI's core business - insurance - is directly profitable. The largest share of EBT (earnings before taxes) also comes from the general insurance segment, which also accounts for the largest share of sales. This shows a solid business structure in which the core business generates profits independently and is not dependent on volatile investment profits.

FCF

Old Republic International's free cash flow (FCF) is positive, which is typical for an insurance company and indicates solid operating activities. However, the cash flow from financing activities is negative every year. This indicates that the company regularly returns capital to shareholders, be it through dividend payments, share buybacks or the repayment of debt.

A closer look shows that the negative cash flow from financing activities is mainly due to share buybacks and dividend payments. This is not necessarily negative, as such measures are aimed at returning value directly to shareholders. This aspect can therefore be considered largely unproblematic.

This strategy indicates that ORI pursues a conservative financial policy and strives to continuously provide value to its shareholders, even if the company uses external sources of financing.

Part 2:https://getqu.in/i9RpER/

$PGR (+1,23 %)
$ALV (-2 %)
$CB (+1,52 %)
$CS (-2,33 %)
$ALL (+0,59 %)

$CS (-2,33 %) Share news

Sale:

1. AXA sells its asset management company AXA Investment Managers (AXA IM) to BNP Paribas for 5.4 billion euros.

2. this corresponds to 15 times the profit of AXA IM in 2023.

3. in future, AXA will focus on the core business of insurance: Life & Savings, Property & Casualty and Health insurance.

4. AXA and BNP Paribas enter into a long-term strategic partnership for investment management.

5. AXA retains full control over product design, asset allocation and asset-liability management.

6. upon completion of the transaction, AXA plans to repurchase an estimated €3.8 billion of shares to offset the decline in profits.

7. the transaction is expected to be completed by the second quarter of 2025.

8. the sale is expected to reduce AXA's adjusted profit by approximately €0.4 billion per year.

9. AXA expects a one-off net gain of 2.2 billion euros from the transaction.

10. the core financial targets of AXA's "Unlock the Future" plan remain unchanged.

11. the transaction and the planned share buyback are not expected to have a material impact on AXA's Solvency II ratio.

Purchase:

1. AXA acquires the Italian insurance group Nobis.

2. Nobis is mainly active in the private customer business of property and casualty insurance in Italy.

3. in 2023, Nobis achieved gross premiums of 0.5 billion euros and a net profit of 35 million euros

4. the purchase price amounts to 423 million euros plus a possible performance-related payment of up to 55 million euros

5. the price/earnings ratio is around 11, including expected synergies

6. the transaction is expected to reduce the AXA Group's Solvency II ratio by 1 percentage point.

7. the acquisition will improve AXA Italy's market position from 5th to 4th place in the property and casualty insurance market.

8. the market share of AXA in Italy will increase by approx. 1 percentage point.

9. the acquisition diversifies AXA's distribution channels, in particular through long-term agreements with car dealers in the Nobis network.

10. the transaction is expected to close before the end of the first half of 2025

11. AXA Italy reported gross written premiums of €5.0 billion and an adjusted profit of €155 million in 2023.

To all newbie dividers: The Ex Day.

(In simple terms: the share price is reduced by the dividend yield). Here at $CS (-2,33 %)

The money from dividends also comes from somewhere. Accordingly, high dividends are not always good, but are based on a functioning business model. If this is not the case, you will make more price losses than returns from dividends in the long term.

If the dividends are above the tax-free amount, taxes must be paid on them. It is almost like selling shares in a company. That is why it is important to reinvest them. Either in the same company or in another one. The big advantage is a steady cash flow, which can simplify the rebalancing of the portfolio or cover possible everyday expenses (e.g. in retirement)

What is your opinion of AXA ($CS (-2,33 %)) ? I would be interested, because many people prefer Allianz ($ALV (-2 %) ) is preferred. Is that just because of the French withholding tax or what are the reasons?

Will be something.

in the long term.