+150% performance in 5 years
Company portrait
Takeover of XL Group
Target figures & earnings growth
Cash flow & dividend
Return & equity
Debt reduction
Business figures 2024
Quarterly figures Q1 2025
Link: https://shorturl.at/OgwsV
Postes
19+150% performance in 5 years
Company portrait
Takeover of XL Group
Target figures & earnings growth
Cash flow & dividend
Return & equity
Debt reduction
Business figures 2024
Quarterly figures Q1 2025
Link: https://shorturl.at/OgwsV
Munich Re $MUV2 (-0,33 %) presented its figures for the first quarter of 2025 today and the share price reacted slightly lower.
The company is once again showing its resilience.
In this article, I will organize the current quarterly statement [1], the IR presentation [2] and the earnings call [3], so that the typical "hobby investor" (like me) is also well informed and has a better understanding of Munich Re's business and developments.
📊 Overview Q1 2025
Digression: What does RoE mean and why has it fallen so sharply?
RoE (return on equity) stands for return on equity and measures how efficiently a company manages its shareholders' capital. The higher, the better.
The RoE is particularly important for insurance companies that work with a lot of capital (e.g. for provisions and investments), as it shows how profitably the tied-up capital is actually being used.
At Munich Re, the RoE fell from 27.2% to 13.3% in Q1. This is not due to operational weakness, but primarily to:
Nevertheless, the capital base remains strong and the RoE should recover once the claims experience normalizes.
Background to the decline in earnings
The sharp fall in earnings is still immediately apparent, and here are the main reasons for this:
Forest fires in Los Angeles:
The biggest negative factor was the devastating forest fires in Los Angeles, which cost Munich Re around €1.1 billion Group-wide.
Update from the call:
"The LA wildfires of €1.1bn altogether, which is a slight decline from the initially announced €1.2bn due to positive effects of a weaker USD and retrocession."
➡️ The net charge was therefore revised slightly downwards.
Currency losses (currency result):
Munich Re was heavily invested in the US dollar through so-called "long positions". As the US dollar depreciated during the quarter, this resulted in a currency loss of -506 million.
"A 10% decline in the USD would result in an approx. 5% decline in net income."
➡️ The impact of the USD loss is therefore not just a one-off, but will also have a structural impact if the weakness continues. Munich Re therefore reduced its long USD position in the course of Q1, but has not yet fully liquidated it.
Operating result halved:
Insights from the call on this:
CFO on earnings quality and operational strength despite decline:
"While our underlying technical profitability continues to be very strong overall, high large losses, fair value changes in the investment result and significant currency movement affected our net earnings."
The message: The decline in earnings is not operationally driven, but results from external volatilities (losses, capital markets, currencies).
This also confirms why Munich Re is sticking to its annual forecast of €6 billion.
Digression for understanding: What does the combined ratio mean and why is it so important?
The combined ratio is a key performance indicator in property and casualty insurance (P&C = Property & Casualty).
It measures the profitability of the insurance business:
Combined ratio = (claims expenditure + administrative costs) / premiums earned
Examples in Q1 2025:
Business segments
1️⃣ Reinsurance
Munich Re acts as a reinsurer here, they "insure insurance".
Particularly important in areas such as natural catastrophes, life, health and liability.
In the event of major claims, for example, Munich Re helps other insurers such as Allianz or AXA to cover the risk.
Highlights Q1 2025:
Property/casualty reinsurance:
Burdened by major losses (€ 1.0 billion), in particular:
Life/health reinsurance: Very strong
What is the technical result here?
It measures the pure insurance performance, i.e. how profitable the underwriting is, excluding investment effects. This is particularly important in life/health reinsurance, as long-term contracts dominate here.
Insights from the call on this:
Life & Health reinsurance, explanation of the strong result:
"We benefited from positive experience driven by the U.S. portfolio [...] but we do not consider this to be the new run rate."
The strong technical result (€ 608 million) was due in part to lower mortality, fewer major claims and good contract development in the US. According to management, however, this level cannot be maintained in the long term.
2️⃣ Global Specialty Insurance (GSI)
A newly designated area for specialty insurance, managed by the reinsurance organization. Focus: commercial specialty risks.
➡️ Result of the forest fires: Only €8m net profit, a sharp decline.
The GSI division was hit hard, mainly due to one-off major losses and the segment change. Without these effects, the company would have been on target according to management.
3️⃣ ERGO acquires Munich Re's direct insurance business
Traditional insurance for end customers, such as motor, household, life and health insurance. Divided into Germany and International.
Q1 2025 at a glance:
ERGO Germany:
ERGO International:
Major losses Q1 2025
Man-made major losses251 million (->
This is the most expensive forest fire loss to date for the insurance industry worldwide.
Investment result & financial markets
Share buybacks & dividend
➡️ How should this be assessed?
The buyback volume is exceptionally high, especially in comparison with other insurers or DAX companies.
It continues to show:
Despite massive capital returns, the capital base is exceptionally robust.
Munich Re "earned the share buy-back virtually within one quarter", as the CFO put it.
April renewals & market outlook
Risk-adjusted means: Prices were calculated taking into account current claims inflation and risk situation.
A price decline of -2.5 % therefore does not mean that the contracts are cheaper or weaker, but that the premium level has fallen slightly after risk adjustment.
At the same time, the total volume of renewed contracts rose by +6.1%, which is a positive development.
What does "April renewal" actually mean?
In the reinsurance industry, many contracts are renegotiated every year - this is called "renewals".
These do not all take place at the beginning of the year, but are staggered regionally:
The April renewals thus include all reinsurance treaties renewed as at April 1.
Munich Re was able to increase its business volume by +6.1%, despite a slight decline in prices (risk-adjusted: -2.5%).
This shows that Demand remains high and Munich Re can continue to conclude profitable new business.
Strategic development: acquisition of NEXT Insurance
Munich Re has announced the complete takeover of NEXT Insurance via its primary insurance subsidiary ERGO.
The transaction values the US insurtech company at USD 2.6 billion.
NEXT Insurance was founded in 2016 and offers digital insurance for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the USA. With over 600,000 customers and a turnover of USD 548 million in 2024, the company represents a significant addition to the ERGO portfolio.
The integration of NEXT Insurance enables ERGO to directly enter the US SME insurance market, which is considered to be extremely attractive.
The transaction is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2025 and is expected to contribute hundreds of millions to ERGO's net profit in the medium term.
"We expect earnings uplift from the Next Insurance acquisition in Q3.
"M&A remains on the table - we are monitoring opportunities."
Munich Re expects positive earnings contributions from the NEXT Insurance acquisition in Q3.
The company is also keeping its options open for further acquisitions, particularly in the area of specialty insurance.
🔮 Outlook for 2025
Expected:
🏷️ Conclusion:
Strong basis, high burdens, share price dampened, fundamentals remain robust
Munich Re shows once again:
The business model is resilient.
Despite extreme natural events (LA forest fires) and unfavorable currency effects, the company remains profitable. The life/health segment shines.
What remains: The operating result has halved and comparison with the exceptionally strong Q1 2024 is difficult.
The markets had probably expected more.
With a €20 dividend, a €2 billion share buyback and a stable outlook of €6 billion in annual earnings, Munich Re nevertheless remains a reliable value stock for me with growth in reinsurance and solid risk management.
The position in my portfolio will double within the next few months.
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$SREN (+0,34 %)
$HNR1 (+0,86 %)
$CS (+0,04 %)
$ALV (-0,06 %)
$ZURN (-0,48 %)
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Thanks for reading! 🤝
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Sources:
[3] https://web.quartr.com/link/companies/6425/events/345177/transcript?targetTime=0.0
More:
https://www.reinsurancene.ws/munich-re-acquires-next-insurance-to-become-part-of-ergo/?
I'll have to ask the community now. $CS (+0,04 %) The company paid out today and TR deducted exactly 12.8% withholding tax, which corresponds exactly to the creditable portion.
Am I wrong or does Trade Republic now have a general disclosure of the place of residence so that the French part is not withheld? That would be great.
Analsyst updates, 08.11.
⬆️⬆️⬆️
- GOLDMAN upgrades BIONTECH from Neutral to Buy and raises price target from USD 90 to USD 137. $BNTX (+0,52 %)
- BOFA raises target price for UNDER ARMOUR from USD 9 to USD 13. Neutral. $UAA (+1,2 %)
- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for DELIVERY HERO from EUR 29 to EUR 35. Hold. $DHE
- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SIEMENS from EUR 197 to EUR 200. Buy. $SIE (-0,17 %)
- JEFFERIES raises the price target for HOCHTIEF from EUR 135 to EUR 138. Buy. $HOT (+0 %)
- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS from EUR 60 to EUR 62. Buy. $SHL (-0,53 %)
- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for NORDEX from EUR 18 to EUR 19. Buy. $NDX1 (-0,14 %)
- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for RATIONAL from 832 EUR to 841 EUR. Hold. $RAA (+0,54 %)
- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the target price for AXA from 37 EUR to 39 EUR. Buy. $CS (+0,04 %)
- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for BASTEI LÜBBE from EUR 11.70 to EUR 12.20. Buy. $BST (+0,76 %)
- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for ARCELORMITTAL from EUR 28 to EUR 29. Buy. $MT (-0,36 %)
- DZ BANK raises the price target for SWISS RE from CHF 130 to CHF 140. Buy. $SREN (+0,34 %)
- ODDO BHF raises the price target for HEIDELBERG MATERIALS from EUR 99 to EUR 110. Neutral. $HEI (-0,01 %)
- KEPLER CHEUVREUX raises the price target for DAIMLER TRUCK from EUR 35 to EUR 41. Hold. $DTG (-0,01 %)
- KEPLER CHEUVREUX upgrades REDCARE PHARMACY from Reduce to Hold. $RDC (+2,58 %)
- ODDO BHF raises the price target for HENKEL from EUR 67 to EUR 73. Neutral. $HEN (+0,28 %)
- ODDO BHF raises the price target for FREENET from EUR 27 to EUR 28. Neutral. $FNTN (+0,17 %)
- BARCLAYS raises the target price for ABOUT YOU from EUR 3.10 to EUR 3.40. Underweight. $YOU (+0,67 %)
- BARCLAYS raises the target price for NEMETSCHEK from EUR 108 to EUR 125. Overweight. $NEM (+0,31 %)
⬇️⬇️⬇️
- BOFA lowers the price target for PINTEREST from USD 45 to USD 39. Buy. $PINS
- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for DAIMLER TRUCK from EUR 56 to EUR 55. Buy. $DTG (-0,01 %)
- UBS lowers the price target for JCDECAUX from EUR 21.60 to EUR 18.50. Neutral. $DEC (+0,54 %)
- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for ADTRAN HOLDING from EUR 9.70 to EUR 9.30. Buy. $ADTN (-0,84 %)
- ODDO BHF lowers the price target for NORDEX from EUR 18 to EUR 17. Outperform. $NDX1 (-0,14 %)
- BARCLAYS lowers the target price for VESTAS from DKK 99 to DKK 80. Underweight. $VWS (+5,59 %)
- KEPLER CHEUVREUX lowers the price target for FRAPORT from EUR 62 to EUR 59. Buy. $FRA (+3,04 %)
- BARCLAYS lowers the target price for GSK from GBP 15.50 to GBP 14.50. Equal-Weight. $GSK
- BERENBERG lowers the price target for COMPUGROUP from EUR 23 to EUR 21. Buy. $COP (+0,23 %)
- BERENBERG lowers the price target for JUNGHEINRICH from EUR 41 to EUR 39. Buy. $JUN3 (+0,76 %)
- JEFFERIES lowers the target price for SUSS MICROTEC from EUR 87 to EUR 75. Buy. $SMHN (+0,13 %)
AXA Q3 2024 $CS (+0,04 %)
Financial performance:
AXA reported a 7% increase in gross written premiums and other income to €84.0 billion for the first nine months of 2024. This growth was consistent across all segments, with premiums in property and casualty insurance rising by 7% to EUR 44.5 billion and in life and health insurance also by 7% to EUR 38.2 billion.
Balance sheet overview:
The Solvency II ratio was 221% as at September 30, 2024, a decrease of 6 points since June 30. This decline was attributed to unfavorable market conditions, in particular falling interest rates and rising spreads in Europe.
Details of the income statement:
Premium income in the life insurance segment rose by 7% to €25.1 billion, driven by strong growth in unit-linked products and capital-light G/A savings products. Health insurance also recorded a 7% increase in premiums to 13.2 billion euros, boosted by positive price effects in various regions.
Key figures and profitability metrics:
The New Business Value (NBV) margin decreased by 0.5 points to 4.6%, mainly due to a less favorable business structure and changes in financial assumptions. The Solvency II ratio, a key measure of financial strength, was stable at 221%.
Segment overview:
Competitive position:
AXA's diversified business model and strong market position in core markets contribute to stable results. Moody's upgraded the Group's rating outlook to "positive", confirming the company's financial strength.
Outlook and management statements:
The Group expects to continue its strong operating performance and is confident of achieving the targeted underlying earnings per share growth for 2024 within the target range of 6-8% CAGR for the period 2023-2026.
Risks and opportunities:
The decline in the Solvency II ratio highlights potential risks from market volatility. At the same time, the strong sales growth and the strategic focus on high-quality business areas offer significant growth opportunities.
Summary:
AXA shows a robust financial performance with sales growth of 7% in all segments. Despite market distortions, the balance sheet remains strong with a Solvency II ratio of 221%. Strategic initiatives in the areas of pricing and product offensive contributed to growth, particularly in the Life & Health and Property & Casualty segments. The outlook remains positive and the company expects sustainable profit growth in line with its long-term targets.
Positive aspects:
Negative aspects:
Your opinion on $CS (+0,04 %) AXA ?
Old Republic International Corporation- The stock for Opis?
Company presentation: Old Republic International Corporation
Old Republic International Corporation is a leading US insurance company specializing in comprehensive insurance and property solutions. The company emphasizes integrity, quality, service excellence and financial strength. With a history of over 90 years, Old Republic International has earned a first-class reputation for outstanding customer service and fair business practices.
Historical Development
Founded over 90 years ago, Old Republic $ORI (-0,02 %) Republic International has developed into one of the leading players in the insurance industry through steady growth and the establishment of long-term partnerships. These years of experience and solid background have made the company a trusted name in the insurance sector.
Business model
Old Republic International's business model is based on providing responsible and sustainable insurance and real estate solutions. The company aims to create equal value for its shareholders, employees and customers while generating stable returns. Old Republic International takes a customer-oriented approach and places particular emphasis on long-term relationships and financial stability.
Core competencies
Old Republic International is characterized by the following core competencies:
Future prospects and strategic initiatives
Old Republic International strives to continue to meet high expectations of financial stability and trust. To further strengthen its position in the insurance industry, the company plans to capitalize on new growth opportunities. Strategic initiatives could include entering new markets, introducing innovative products and services and increasing operational efficiency. These measures should help to achieve the strategic goals and strengthen the company's market position in the long term.
Insider shareholdings
- Arnold Levy Steiner: 0.25%
- Craig Richard Smiddy: 0.07%
- Rande Keith Yeager: 0.06%
- Stephen Joseph Oberst: 0.06%
- Spencer LeRoy: 0.04%
- Stephen Robert Walker: 0.03%
- William Todd Gray: 0.03%
- Thomas Andrew Dare: 0.02%
- Francis Joseph Sodaro: 0.02%
- Jeffrey Patrick Lange: 0.02%
- Carolyn Jean Monroe: 0.01%
- Steven James Bateman: 0.01%
- John Maynard Dixon: 0.01%
- Fredricka Taubitz: 0.01%
- Glenn W. Reed: 0.01%
- Charles James Kovaleski: 0.01%
- Lisa Jeffries Caldwell: 0%
- Michael Denard Kennedy: 0%
- Peter Boyd McNitt: 0%
- Barbara Ann Adachi: 0%
This means that the insiders of Old Republic International Corporation only hold a total of around 0.66% of the shares in the company. But this is hardly surprising for an older company. However, this means that nobody has "skin in the game".
Margins top of the notch
Compared to other insurance companies, Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) has an exceptional gross margin. At 62.95%, this is more than twice as high as the next best competitor and illustrates how efficiently the company is managed and how profitable its customer relationships are.
Sales development
Old Republic International Corporation's sales are currently stagnating at around USD 7 billion and are not showing any significant growth. Growth rates are even slightly negative. However, this is not necessarily an alarming sign if the company is simultaneously working more efficiently and retaining high-quality customers. As is usual with insurance companies, the net result also shows a certain stagnation. However, it should be borne in mind that the company would be extremely profitable in years with few claims.
Sales distribution and EBT influence
A look at the distribution of turnover shows that the majority of revenue comes from insurance income, which can be seen as positive. This means that Old Republic International (ORI) is less dependent on interest income or investment gains. A closer look at the sources of income makes it clear that investments are not ORI's core strength.
However, it is important to note that ORI's core business - insurance - is directly profitable. The largest share of EBT (earnings before taxes) also comes from the general insurance segment, which also accounts for the largest share of sales. This shows a solid business structure in which the core business generates profits independently and is not dependent on volatile investment profits.
FCF
Old Republic International's free cash flow (FCF) is positive, which is typical for an insurance company and indicates solid operating activities. However, the cash flow from financing activities is negative every year. This indicates that the company regularly returns capital to shareholders, be it through dividend payments, share buybacks or the repayment of debt.
A closer look shows that the negative cash flow from financing activities is mainly due to share buybacks and dividend payments. This is not necessarily negative, as such measures are aimed at returning value directly to shareholders. This aspect can therefore be considered largely unproblematic.
This strategy indicates that ORI pursues a conservative financial policy and strives to continuously provide value to its shareholders, even if the company uses external sources of financing.
Part 2:https://getqu.in/i9RpER/
$PGR (+0,32 %)
$ALV (-0,06 %)
$CB (+1,95 %)
$CS (+0,04 %)
$ALL (+0,39 %)
+ 6
$CS (+0,04 %) Share news
Sale:
1. AXA sells its asset management company AXA Investment Managers (AXA IM) to BNP Paribas for 5.4 billion euros.
2. this corresponds to 15 times the profit of AXA IM in 2023.
3. in future, AXA will focus on the core business of insurance: Life & Savings, Property & Casualty and Health insurance.
4. AXA and BNP Paribas enter into a long-term strategic partnership for investment management.
5. AXA retains full control over product design, asset allocation and asset-liability management.
6. upon completion of the transaction, AXA plans to repurchase an estimated €3.8 billion of shares to offset the decline in profits.
7. the transaction is expected to be completed by the second quarter of 2025.
8. the sale is expected to reduce AXA's adjusted profit by approximately €0.4 billion per year.
9. AXA expects a one-off net gain of 2.2 billion euros from the transaction.
10. the core financial targets of AXA's "Unlock the Future" plan remain unchanged.
11. the transaction and the planned share buyback are not expected to have a material impact on AXA's Solvency II ratio.
Purchase:
1. AXA acquires the Italian insurance group Nobis.
2. Nobis is mainly active in the private customer business of property and casualty insurance in Italy.
3. in 2023, Nobis achieved gross premiums of 0.5 billion euros and a net profit of 35 million euros
4. the purchase price amounts to 423 million euros plus a possible performance-related payment of up to 55 million euros
5. the price/earnings ratio is around 11, including expected synergies
6. the transaction is expected to reduce the AXA Group's Solvency II ratio by 1 percentage point.
7. the acquisition will improve AXA Italy's market position from 5th to 4th place in the property and casualty insurance market.
8. the market share of AXA in Italy will increase by approx. 1 percentage point.
9. the acquisition diversifies AXA's distribution channels, in particular through long-term agreements with car dealers in the Nobis network.
10. the transaction is expected to close before the end of the first half of 2025
11. AXA Italy reported gross written premiums of €5.0 billion and an adjusted profit of €155 million in 2023.
Which of my positions do you think I should make bigger (and why)?
On the following months I'd like to go for:
Airlines: $UAL (+1,18 %) or $IAG (+1,1 %) --> Good momentum, growth ahead, undervalued.
Insurance: $CS (+0,04 %) or $ALV (-0,06 %) --> Good dividend, good momentum, good perspectives, high dividend.
European Banks:
$ISP (+0,51 %) or $CABK (+0,33 %) --> Undervalued Vs American banks, better environment than years ago with lower valuations, higher interest and more security... possibility of gaining stock apretiation while receiving high dividends.
Homebuilding: $LEN (+0,68 %) --> They have a clear problem with lack of homes in the US, good valuation, good growth prospects.
Also tempted to double with my pharma losers $CAH (+0,43 %) and $AMPH (+0,58 %) , bought them when they were with good momentum and they've underperformed since, but I still like the future prospects... High growth, small caps, good drug portfolio... If I still like the numbers and they're cheaper now, should I double my bet here?(I hate going against momentum). $PFE (+0,67 %) also on the list, but I have it on a small saving plan. Shifting momentum but still early to say so I prefer to buy slow...
I'm not planing on adding stocks that are not currently in my portfolio.
To all newbie dividers: The Ex Day.
(In simple terms: the share price is reduced by the dividend yield). Here at $CS (+0,04 %)
The money from dividends also comes from somewhere. Accordingly, high dividends are not always good, but are based on a functioning business model. If this is not the case, you will make more price losses than returns from dividends in the long term.
If the dividends are above the tax-free amount, taxes must be paid on them. It is almost like selling shares in a company. That is why it is important to reinvest them. Either in the same company or in another one. The big advantage is a steady cash flow, which can simplify the rebalancing of the portfolio or cover possible everyday expenses (e.g. in retirement)
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