BPER Banca

Action

ISIN: IT0000066123

Ticker: BPE

IT0000066123

BPE

Price

Discussion sur BPE

Postes

Code & Capital

@Codeandcapital

1Sem.·

Wikifolio Update October 2026: Tech Stocks Fall, Pharmaceuticals and Oil Rise.

On October 1, the model replaced 18 of its 30 positions. One month later, all six of the month’s top-performing stocks are new additions resulting from that very rebalancing. However, three of the six worst-performing stocks are as well. The Wikifolio ended October down 11.64 percent, its weakest month since its launch in March.

October was not a good month for tech stocks. Concerns about AI spending by the major cloud companies have resurfaced; the SOX semiconductor index lost 15.4 percent over the month, and the Nasdaq fell 5.3 percent. That was its weakest month since March 2025. Quarterly earnings reports came out last week. Seagate and Teradyne beat expectations but still saw their shares fall. On October 30, $INTC (+7,53 %) l issued a weak outlook for the fourth quarter and plummeted 28.6 percent in a single day. SanDisk $SNDK (+14,98 %) , Marvell $MRVL (+10,48 %) and $AMD (+9,23 %) also saw double-digit declines. In the meantime, on October 28, the Fed kept interest rates at 3.75 to 4.00 percent; two members would have preferred to raise them already.

For a portfolio that, after rebalancing, is invested nearly half in semiconductors and memory

, this was the worst possible month:

📊 Monthly performance: −11.64%

📊 Price as of October 30: €104.23

📊 Performance since inception (March 13): +4.2%

📊 Largest loss since inception: −18.6% (previously −14.6%)

📊 Next rebalancing: Early January 2027

Performance & Comparison 🚀

The Nasdaq fell, the broad indices held steady, and the DAX even gained ground. The model clearly lagged behind this time, falling more than twice as far behind as the Nasdaq.

Performance Comparison (September 30–October 30, 2026, end of day, all as euro-denominated ETFs):

Global Quant 6-Factor: −11.64%

NASDAQ 100: −5.27%

FTSE All-World: −0.52%

S&P 500: +0.25%

DAX: +2.43%

The Wikifolio is now 17.5% below its high of €126.30 on June 22.

Buys & Sales 💶

On October 1, the third rebalancing took place—the largest one yet. 18 stocks out, 18 in, 12 remained.

The model sold all nine banks: Bankinter $BKT (-0,67 %) , Swedbank $SWED A (-0,24 %) , UniCredit $UCG (+0,37 %) , CaixaBank $CABK (-0,58 %) , BBVA $BBVA (-0,42 %) , BPER $BPE (-1,43 %) , Monte dei Paschi $BMPS (-1,04 %) , Banca Mediolanum $BMED (-2,75 %) and HSBC $HSBA (+0,43 %) . Also, Interactive Brokers $IBKR (+7,16 %) , Antofagasta $ANTO (+1,77 %) , Coeur Mining $CDE (-1,16 %) , AppLovin $APP (+2,97 %) , Airtel Africa $AAF (+0,32 %) , Merlin Properties $MRL (+0,17 %) , Solaria $SLR (-0,12 %) , Investor AB $INVE B (+0,39 %) and Pershing Square $PS (+1,39 %) . All were ranked below 40th place. You can see the returns on each position since the purchase on the slides.

It bought six healthcare stocks (Eli Lilly $LLY (+1,22 %) , Bristol-Myers Squibb $BMY (+1,32 %) , Vertex $VRTX (+0,51 %) , Incyte $INCY (+2,32 %) , Illumina $ILMN (+0,13 %) , WuXi AppTec $603259 ) and five semiconductor companies (Seagate $STX (+10,88 %) , Marvell $MRVL (+10,48 %) , Applied Materials $AMAT (+6,46 %) , Teradyne $TER (+8,25 %) , KLA $KLAC (+5,23 %) ). Also included is Fortinet $FTNT (+4,7 %) , CF Industries $CF (+1,41 %) , Marathon Petroleum $MPC (+6,53 %) , APA $APA (+4,31 %) , Pop Mart, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange $HKXCY , and Lion Finance $BGEO (+0,61 %) . Applied Materials and KLA had been sold by the model in July; now they’re back in the portfolio.

After the reshuffle, twelve of the thirty positions were semiconductor and memory stocks, accounting for a combined 44.8% of the portfolio.

Top Movers in October 🟢

The sectors that gained were those unrelated to AI. APA topped the list with +28.95%. The oil company reported preliminary third-quarter results on October 7 and repurchased 10.5 million of its own shares. Eli Lilly rose +24.24%. Third-quarter revenue rose 39 percent to $24.4 billion, driven by Mounjaro and Zepbound, and Lilly raised its full-year revenue forecast to $91 billion to $92 billion.

Marathon Petroleum gained +14.06%, even though the stock fell 7.4% on October 27 along with other refiners. CF Industries rose by +8.54%, Vertex by +8.41%, and Bristol-Myers Squibb by +1.54%. All six have been in the portfolio since October 1.

October’s Worst Performers 🔴

This list consists almost entirely of chip stocks. SanDisk saw the biggest loss at −32.92%; on October 30 alone, it fell by 13.5%. Teradyne dropped −30.60%. The earnings report on October 28 beat expectations, as did the outlook, yet the stock still fell. Seagate (−29.13%) saw the same pattern following its earnings report on October 27. Lam Research fell −26.19%, Marvell by −24.61%. Comfort Systems lost −24.43%. It’s not a chip stock, but the company manufactures climate control and electrical systems for data centers and is thus tied to the same sector. On October 23, following the quarterly earnings report—which did not include a 2027 outlook—the stock dropped about 8 percent in a single day.

Teradyne, Seagate, and Marvell were added to the portfolio on October 1. SanDisk, Lam Research, and Comfort Systems $FIX (+5,83 %) were already in the portfolio and were still among the gainers in September.

What’s in the portfolio now 🔍

Stock prices have fallen. The companies’ financial results look different so far. Key metrics for the 30 positions, each showing the median value as of October 31:

P/E ratio: 24.6

Revenue growth: +21.2%

Earnings per share growth: +48.8%

Net margin: 39.0%

Return on equity: 39.4%

Debt-to-equity ratio: 0.2

With a P/E ratio of 24.6, this portfolio isn’t exactly cheap. However, revenue is growing by one-fifth per year, and debt plays virtually no role. The next earnings season will show whether these figures hold up.

Conclusion 💡

October showed what a 44.8% gain means in this sector. When the sector turns, the entire portfolio turns with it. The pharmaceutical and oil stocks added during the rebalancing performed well, but they couldn’t keep up with the chip stocks. A few weeks ago, I calculated a sector limit. At 20 percent, it reduced the maximum drawdown by 2.1 points, but I haven’t implemented it yet. I don’t tinker with the rules in the middle of a drawdown.

What I want to look into is the timing. Rebalancing always takes place just before earnings season, and this time the earnings reports came out right in the first few weeks after the purchase. I’ll run the numbers to see if this is a real disadvantage or if it just happened to look that way this time before I make any changes.

❓ Question for the community

How did October go for you? Did you also have chips in your portfolio, and did you buy more, sell, or just sit it out?

👇 Share your thoughts in the comments!

➡️ Every month, you’ll find the complete Wikifolio update here—even in bad months—along with research from the model.

🗞️ Newsletter: codeandcapitalquant.beehiiv.com

📈 Wikifolio: https://www.wikifolio.com/de/de/w/wf0gquant6

+ 2

13 Commentaires

Solitair@Solitair

1Sem.

All I bought in October were potato chips. As a result, I gained a few kilos, but my investment portfolio held its ground.

•

Afficher la réponse

Code & Capital

@Codeandcapital

1Mo·

📊 Wikifolio Update September 2026: up 1.03%, tech stocks up, mining stocks down, and 18 of 30 positions swapped on October 1

In August, gold mines were the market's top performers. In September, they were the most expensive. Fresnillo
$FRES (-1,41 %) down 15 percent, Micron
$MU (+12,98 %) up 17. At the end of the month, the Wikifolio was up 1.03 percent, and one day later, I swapped out 18 of 30 positions.

September was all about interest rates and oil. Brent rose above $100 in the second week and, following a Saudi pipeline outage, briefly hit $110. U.S. inflation stood at 3.4 percent in August. On September 16, the Fed raised the benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, for the first time since July 2023. The 10-year U.S. yield subsequently climbed to 5.19 percent, a level last seen in 2007. This hardly bothered tech stocks. The Nasdaq hit a record high on September 21, and AMD has been worth one trillion dollars ever since. The situation was different in Europe. German inflation jumped to 3.3 percent, and the DAX lost about four percent over the month.

📊 Monthly performance: +1.03%

📊 Price as of September 30: €117.97

📊 Largest loss since inception: −14.6%

📊 Max performance: +18% (since March 13, 26)

Next rebalancing: Early January 2027

Performance & Comparison 🚀

The U.S. indices posted clear gains when calculated in euros, with the Nasdaq leading the way. The Wikifolio did not keep pace. It lagged behind the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and FTSE All-World, and outperformed only the DAX.

Performance Comparison (September 1–30, 2026, end of day):

Global Quant 6-Factor: +1.03%

NASDAQ 100: +4.18%

S&P 500: +2.90%

FTSE All-World: +1.95%

DAX: −4.07%

You can see what caused this in the two lists below. Tech stocks delivered, while mining stocks and a few individual stocks ate up a good chunk of those gains.

Purchases & Sales 💶

None in September itself. The model trades only on four dates per year, and the third was on October 1. What happened then is detailed in its own section below.

Top Movers in September 🟢

The month belonged to semiconductors and memory stocks. Midway through the month, Intel’s CEO said the company could currently only meet about half of the demand for processors. After that, the entire industry picked up steam. Micron
$MU (+12,98 %) topped the list with +16.91%, followed by SanDisk
$SNDK (+14,98 %) at +13.90% and TSMC
$2330 at +11.85%. Lam Research
$LRCX (+5,83 %) rose +11.12%, ASML
$ASML (+2,17 %) +10.06%. In between is Comfort Systems $FIX (+5,83 %) , a stock that has nothing to do with chips, up 10.47%. In August, Comfort Systems was still among the losers.

September’s Big Losers 🔴

Gold and silver declined in September, with silver falling much more sharply. Rising yields and a stronger dollar weighed on prices. Mining stocks followed suit. Fresnillo
$FRES (-1,41 %) lost −14.53%, Coeur Mining
$CDE (-1,16 %) −10.65%, and Endeavour Mining $EDV (-4,37 %) -7.50%. In August, all three were still on the other list with gains of over 25 percent. Merlin Properties fell −8.98%, Airtel Africa
$AAF (+0,32 %) down 7.76%, and Interactive Brokers
$IBKR (+7,16 %) fell by 6.79%.

Rebalancing on October 1 🔄

On October 1, the third rebalancing since the start took place. I swapped out 18 of 30 positions—more than ever before. In July, it was nine.

All nine banks are out: Bankinter
$BKT (-0,67 %) , CaixaBank
$CABK (-0,58 %) , BBVA
$BBVA (-0,63 %) , UniCredit
$UCG (+0,37 %) , BPER
$BPE (-1,43 %) , Monte dei Paschi $BMPS (-1,04 %) , Banca Mediolanum
$BMED (-2,75 %) , Swedbank$SWED A (-0,24 %) and HSBC
$HSBA (+0,43 %) . In addition, Interactive Brokers $IBKR (+7,16 %) , Antofagasta $ANTO (+1,77 %) , Coeur Mining
$CDE (-1,16 %) , AppLovin
$APP (+2,97 %) , Airtel Africa
$AAF (+0,32 %) , Merlin Properties and Solaria
$SLR (-0,12 %) . Investor AB
$INVE B (+0,39 %) and Pershing Square
$PSH (+0,42 %) are also no longer in the portfolio. So four of the six underperformers listed above are no longer in the portfolio.

Six stocks from the healthcare sector were added: Eli Lilly
$LLY (+1,22 %) , Bristol-Myers
Squibb
$BMY (+1,32 %) , Vertex $VRTX , Incyte
$INCY (+2,32 %) , Illumina
$ILMN (+0,13 %) and WuXi AppTec
$603259 . Five are from the semiconductor and storage sectors: Seagate
$STX (+10,88 %) , Marvell
$MRVL (+10,48 %) , Applied
Materials
$AMAT (+6,46 %), Teradyne
$TER (+8,25 %) and KLA
$KLAC (+5,23 %) . The rest is split among Fortinet
$FTNT (+4,7 %) , CF Industries
$CF (+1,41 %) , Marathon Petroleum
$MPC (+6,53 %) , APA
$APA (+4,31 %) , Pop Mart $9992 (-0,3 %) , Hong Kong Exchanges
$388 (-0,13 %) and Lion Finance
$BGEO (+0,61 %) .

Twelve remain: SanDisk, Micron, Western Digital, Nvidia, Lam Research, TSMC, ASML, Alphabet, Comfort Systems, Fresnillo, Endeavour and Newmont. All six of September’s top movers are included.

Two names stand out. Applied Materials and KLA I sold on July 1, up 92 and a gain of 90 percent. Now both are back in my portfolio. The model doesn’t remember what it has sold in the past. It only looks at where a stock stands in the ranking today.

Conclusion 💡

The portfolio looks different after October 1 than it did before. In September, about 41 percent was still in financial stocks; now there are two positions out of 30. Instead, 12 out of 30 are in semiconductors and memory, and six are in the healthcare sector. There’s no sector limit; the model sorts by score, not by industry. Trading won’t resume until early January.

How was your September? And did you hold onto your stocks after the pullback, or did you sell them? 👇

➡️ Every month, you’ll find the complete Wikifolio update here, along with research in between.

📈 Wikifolio $DE000LS9V052 (+3,52 %)

+ 1

8 Commentaires

Epi@Epi

1Mo

What are the CAGR and Sharpe ratio of your strategy?

•

Voir toutes les 5 autres réponses

Code & Capital

@Codeandcapital

1Mo·

🕖 Six Months of Global Quant 6-Factor

The strategy was launched on March 13. It has been tradable as a certificate since June 9. Today, it’s up 18.3 percent, and that number doesn’t tell the whole story.

📊 Where the strategy stands today

Up 18.3 percent since launch, up 7.5 percent over the last three months, and up 1.8 percent over the last month. The largest intraday loss was 14.6 percent. A total of 4,259 euros is invested across 44 watchlist entries. One number is almost never included in such overviews: the strategy’s highest level was 126 points; it currently stands at 118.3. So the strategy is a good six percent away from its own high. The 18.3 percent gain mentioned above isn’t a record high, but rather a recovery. What sounds like a quiet half-year actually had a pretty rough summer.

📉 July

In July, I realized for the first time what the difference is between a backtest and real money. The second rebalancing took place on July 1. After that, the portfolio went down. I track how the purchased portfolio performs against all 843 stocks in my universe, equally weighted. After four weeks, the portfolio was down 6.81 percent. The benchmark stood at plus 2.13. A lag of nearly nine points in four weeks.

That was the momentum crash. What had been performing well before suffered the sharpest decline. Momentum is one of my six factors. A portfolio selected based on this factor is bound to underperform an equally weighted benchmark during such a phase. In backtesting, I’ve seen such stretches multiple times. Still, reading about them is quite different from watching them unfold every morning for four weeks.

I did nothing. Not because I’m disciplined, but because the rule doesn’t call for any intervention. Nothing happens between two scheduled reviews, no matter what’s in the portfolio. After eight weeks, the shortfall had shrunk to 5.5 points. The recovery came when the market turned. If I had sold at the end of July, the loss would have been locked in, and the recovery would have passed me by.

💶 The portfolio after six months

Of the 30 positions, 14 are still from the first day in March. Seven were added in April, and nine in July. Two rebalancings, and nearly half remains unchanged. By weight, about 41 percent is in financials, just under 30 percent in semiconductors and memory, and just under 13 percent in mining stocks. I didn’t set any of these limits myself. The model doesn’t target specific sectors. They’re included because they currently combine favorable valuations with strong momentum. In July, the portfolio rotated out of chip stocks—which had become expensive—into European banks. For the chips, earnings were no longer keeping pace with the stock price; for the banks, it was the other way around. Bankinter $BKT (-0,67 %) , CaixaBank $CABK (-0,58 %) , BPER $BPE (-1,43 %) , Monte dei Paschi $BMPS (-1,04 %) and Swedbank $SWED A (-0,24 %) are now all side by side in my portfolio. I never had a strong opinion on European banks.

🔁 Let the winners run

Micron $MU (+12,98 %) is the perfect example of how this strategy works. I bought it with a 3.3 percent weighting; today it’s at 6.6 percent. I don’t rebalance between trading sessions. Winners stay big; losers get smaller. Compared to a strategy that resets every position to the same weight, this approach yielded 1.86 points last quarter. One quarter isn’t much, but the trend aligns with what the backtest shows.

🔄 On October 1

In the third rebalancing, about half the portfolio changes—15 stocks out and 15 in. Significantly more than last time. The mining stocks are almost entirely out—namely, Antofagasta $ANTO (+1,77 %) , Coeur $CDE (-1,16 %) , Endeavour $EDV (-4,37 %) and Newmont $NEM (-0,16 %) . Gold and copper have performed strongly since the spring, and that’s exactly what’s making the stocks in the model expensive. The main additions are refiners and semiconductor companies. I’ll list the exact stocks after the rebalancing. I find it more interesting to see what’s happening with the banks. In July, the model rotated out of expensive chip stocks into European banks. Now it’s rotating back into some of them—Bankinter $BKT (-0,67 %) , Swedbank $SWED A (-0,24 %) and UniCredit $UCG (+0,37 %) are on the sell list. Not because they’ve underperformed—all three are in the black. They’ve risen and thus become more expensive, and that’s enough for the model. This is where a system like this seems least intuitive. It doesn’t sell because something is performing poorly. It sells because something is no longer cheap.

💡 What Six Months Don’t Tell You

Two rebalancings are two data points. The third comes on October 1—only then does a trend even begin. The backtest over six and a half years tells one thing; six months of live trading tell another—and I don’t know today just how far apart those two will diverge.

What I’ve learned after half a year is more valuable than any return figure. A rule set in advance takes the decision out of your hands at the very moment when you’d be least capable of making it.

❓ Did you stick with your strategy in July, or did you rebalance? And do you work with fixed rules, or do you decide on a case-by-case basis?

👇 Let us know in the comments!

➡️ Every month, you’ll find the full Wikifolio update here, along with research from the model in between.

🗞️ Newsletter: codeandcapitalquant.beehiiv.com

📈 Wikifolio: https://www.wikifolio.com/de/de/w/wf0gquant6

Not investment advice; our own research. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thomas

@farlys

10Mo·

🚀 2025 eToro Recap: Outperforming the Market

An extraordinary year comes to a close. The numbers speak for themselves: 2025 has been the year that confirmed my strategy, closing with a +52.46% return that significantly outperformed all major global benchmarks.

🏁 Benchmark Comparison:

🏆 My Portfolio: +52.46%

📊 S&P 500: +16.37%

💻 Nasdaq 100: +19.05%

🌍 MSCI World (SWDA): +14.50%

₿ Bitcoin (BTC): +35.20%

The strength of this portfolio lies not only in the total return but in its resilience. Despite natural market fluctuations, we maintained steady growth, closing almost every month in the green and managing the rare moments of drawdown with strict discipline.

📊 Monthly Performance:

📈 January 2025: +4.35%

📈 February 2025: +0.95%

📉 March 2025: −4.4%

📈 April 2025: +3.68%

📈 May 2025: +13.32%

📈 June 2025: +6.35%

📈 July 2025: +6.06%

📈 August 2025: +2.04%

📈 September 2025: +6.87%

📈 October 2025: +1.55%

📉 November 2025: -0.39%

📈 December 2025: +2.94%

Performance Summary: ✅ 2024: +4.75% ✅ 2025: +52.46% (YTD) 🔥 Since Inception (1.5 years): +59.7%

🏦 Focus: The Strategic Move on European Banks

Massive exposure to the European banking sector with stocks such as $UCG (+0,37 %) , $BPE (-1,43 %), $BBVA (-0,42 %) , $ISP (-1,35 %) , and $BMPS (-1,04 %) was a primary key to our success. Here is why they performed so brilliantly:

Record Margins: Financial institutions fully capitalized on interest rates remaining elevated longer than expected, maximizing net interest margins.

Shareholder Returns: Aggressive dividend policies and massive buyback programs provided constant support to stock valuations.

Efficiency & Quality: Rigorous risk management kept non-performing loans (NPLs) at historic lows, while digitalization significantly reduced operational costs.

🔥 Top Performers: The Growth Engines

Beyond the banking sector, the portfolio was driven by exceptional assets:

$INSM (+1,74 %): Performance fueled by the clinical and commercial success of ARIKAYCE and pipeline advancements in rare diseases, with 2025 revenue growth hitting 52%.

$RR. (-0,38 %) A powerful industrial turnaround based on drastic restructuring, the global recovery of air travel (engine maintenance), and new defense sector contracts.

$NVDA (+0,58 %) & $AVGO (+5,1 %) : Undisputed leaders of the AI revolution. NVIDIA dominates data center infrastructure, while Broadcom benefits from record demand for custom AI chips and networking hardware.

🎯 Strategy for 2026

My objective remains the same: to outperform major global indices while maintaining a balanced risk profile. As you can see, our asset selection successfully captured the best of the bullish trend.

To those following me: thank you for your trust. If you are looking for a long-term investment aiming to consistently beat the benchmark, consider adding me to your copy traders in 2026—I intend to open this possibility soon.

Let's start 2026 with the same discipline! 🥂

⚠️ DISCLAIMER: All content in this post is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute a solicitation for public savings, personalized financial advice, or an investment suggestion. Trading involves the risk of capital loss. Remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results. Before investing or copying a portfolio, do your own research (DYOR) and evaluate your risk tolerance.

Thomas

@farlys

10Mo·

📈 MARKET UPDATE | DEC 17, 2025: BUYBACKS & BLOCKADES

The mid-week session is defined by an aggressive shift from overextended Tech into Financials and Aerospace.

🌍 THE MACRO SHOCK: TRUMP’S VENEZUELA BLOCKADE

The biggest geopolitical mover today is the U.S. naval blockade of sanctioned oil tankers into Venezuela.

The Impact: Crude prices spiked >1% instantly. This is providing a massive tailwind for energy and commodity-linked sectors.

The Shift: This "geopolitical premium" is forcing capital into hard assets. Silver just hit a record high above $66, with Gold following. 🛢️🔥🥈

🇪🇺 EUROPE: INFLATION COLLAPSE & CENTRAL BANK FEVER

EU indices are ripping because UK CPI fell sharper than expected this morning (3.2% vs 3.4% exp).

The Reaction: A shockwave through the bond market. Traders are now pricing in a near-certain Bank of England (BoE) rate cut tomorrow.

The "Trifecta": We are in a "relief rally" ahead of tomorrow’s massive data dump: ECB, BoE, and U.S. CPI. Markets are front-running a Dovish pivot from Lagarde. 🏦📉

🏦 THE ITALIAN BANKING RALLY

$$BPE (-1,43 %) (+2.1%) | $ISP (-1,35 %) (+1.8%) | $UCG (+0,37 %) (+1.7%)

The Driver: Resilience in Net Interest Margins (NIM) as the ECB easing cycle appears slower than feared.

The Catalyst: Massive shareholder distribution. $UCG (+0,37 %) and $ISP (-1,35 %) are acting as "cash machines," using buybacks to floor the price against any macro noise.

⚙️ AEROSPACE & DEFENSE MOMENTUM

$$RR. (-0,38 %) (+1.75%) | $LDO (-2,04 %) (+1.4%) | $RKLB (+7,42 %) (+1.3%)

The Driver: Rolls-Royce ($RR.L) just initiated a new £200M interim buyback starting Jan 2, immediately following their £1B 2025 program.

Context: Institutional accumulation in Defense is at peak levels as a structural hedge against 2026 geopolitical uncertainty.

📦 RETAIL & CLOUD RESILIENCE

$AMZN (-1,28 %) (+1.19%)

The Driver: Wall Street is digesting the delayed Non-Farm Payrolls (64k added, but unemployment at 2021 highs).

The Sentiment: "Bad news is good news." A weakening labor market gives the Fed more ammo to cut. $AMZN (-1,28 %) is catching the bid as BMO Capital hikes PT to $304, citing AWS cloud acceleration. 📊💼

⚠️ SECTOR ROTATION: THE "AI BUBBLE" PAUSE

$NVDA (+0,58 %) (-0.25%) | $BTC (-0,41 %) (~$86.7k) | $TRX (+0,14 %) (-0.4%)

The Analysis: Pure profit-taking. Capital is bleeding out of high-beta Tech and Crypto to fund the rally in "Value" equities (Banks/Industrials).

The Risk: If $NVDA (+0,58 %) loses its 20-day EMA at the US open, expect a broader drag on the Nasdaq. 🏛️➡️💻

Frisian

@frisian

10Mo·

Invest in banking stocks with the aim to be acquired

After having invested before in $1COV (+0,5 %) with the aim to be acquired by Adnoc/XRG and another investment in $ILTY Illimity Bank in Italy giving access to $IF (-3,48 %) Banca IFIS with a 10% discount.

I'm now thinking to invest in further banking consolidation. Since there seems to be a wave of banking consolidations coming up both cross boarder and within individual European countries.

Italy shows:

$UCG (+0,37 %) Unicredit stakebuilding in both $ALPHA (+2,09 %) Alphabank & $CBK (-0,29 %) Commerzbank and a failled attempt to acquire $BAMI (-0,89 %) Banco BPM. We saw $BMPS (-1,04 %) Monte dei Pachi acquire $MB (+1,66 %) Mediobanca. $BPE (-1,43 %) Bper Banca merge with $BPSO and rumored to be on the wishlist of Unicredit.

Denmark is consolidating but could be still more ongoing:

A recent merger of $SYDB (-0,44 %) Sydbank, Arbejdernes Landsbank & $VJBA Vestjysk Bank.

In Spain

We've seen a major but failed attempt to forget about the Spanish attempt of $BBVA (-0,42 %) Banco Bilbao of $SAB (+0,49 %) Banco Sabadell.

The Netherlands:

$ING (+1 %) ING taking a substantial stake in $VLK (+1,06 %) Van Lanschot Kempen.

$ABN (-1,27 %) Doing several take overs in Germany and buying the trading app Bux and rumored to be bought themselves.

When thinking this through I see a potential for take over but, if it won't happen there is still good dividends to be earned. Therefore there is less of a need of a quick turn around.

I'm now looking for a "smaller" bank that traded and a likely take over candidate.

Where would you invest?

$BPE (-1,43 %) - Bper Banca - Italy

$BAMI (-0,89 %) - Banca BPM - Italy

$ABN (-1,27 %) - ABN Amro Bank - Netherlands

$ALPHA (+2,09 %) - Alpha Bank - Greece

$JYSK (+0,46 %) - Jyske Bank - Denmark

$ALR (+0,09 %) - Ailor Bank - Poland

Any other alternatives, or opinions about this idea, I'm happy to read!

6 Commentaires

ynnxs@ynnxs

10Mo

The Italian government wants to see $BMPS merge with $BAMI so they can further reduce their stake in Monte dei Paschi. As of now I see this bank as a great turnaround candidate but I hope they don’t buy out Banco BPM until they fully integrated $MB because otherwise this could end in a disaster once again 🙈

••

Voir toutes les 2 autres réponses

Thomas

@farlys

11Mo·

Strategic Move! Increased Weight on Banks ($UCG) & Gold ($GLD) 🏦🥇

Hey everyone!

As I hinted, I've officially kicked off my portfolio recalibration strategy for 2026. It's not just about "adjusting" percentages; it's about positioning for the next economic cycle.

Today's move was twofold: I've increased the capital invested in both the Italian banking sector with $UCG (+0,37 %) and in the yellow metal with $GLD (-0,43 %) (the Gold ETF).

🎯 The Logic Behind the Increase

1. Geopolitical Risk & Rate Expectations (Gold - $GLD (-0,43 %) )

I've boosted my Gold position for two key, reinforcing reasons:

Defensive Hedge: Gold's current strong rally confirms its role as a safe-haven asset amidst global geopolitical uncertainty. Despite recent turbulence in $BTC (-0,41 %) , Gold continues to consolidate its strength.

Fed Softening: Growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, supported by weaker US economic data, lead to a weaker dollar. This, in turn, makes Gold more attractive to international investors. Gold is enjoying its best performance since 1979, with analysts projecting prices up to $5,000 an ounce by 2026.

2. European Banking Sector ($UCG (+0,37 %) ): Margins & Dividends

The increase in UniCredit ($UCG (+0,37 %) ) is based on a thesis of value, resilience, and direct profitability:

Stable EU Rates: While the Fed is considering cuts, expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) are that it will maintain stable rates for longer than its US counterpart. Sustained high or stable rates are a direct advantage for the interest margins of European banks.

Dividends & Buybacks: Increasing capital in UniCredit is also part of my strategy to boost the overall dividend flow of my portfolio. The bank has shown a strong commitment to shareholder remuneration through growing dividends and consistent buyback programs, thereby strengthening the passive income component of the portfolio.

Solid Fundamentals: UniCredit has demonstrated resilience and strong capital generation. Within the European context, the banking sector is viewed as a value area that continues to benefit from the operating margins offered by the current rate cycle. My strategy is to capture this value before the ECB begins a more aggressive easing cycle.

📈 Immediate Portfolio Impact

A quick update on fresh numbers: the portfolio ended November slightly down, marking -0.39%. The great news is that, in these first few days of December, the strategy has already paid off: we're already at +0.73% this month! This means we’ve fully recovered the dip from late last month and are already firmly in positive territory to finish the year strong.

What are your thoughts on these two moves? Are you exposed to Gold or European banks?

*Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Invest with caution.*

$GLD (-0,43 %)
$UCG (+0,37 %)
$BTC (-0,41 %)
$BBVA (-0,42 %)
$BPE (-1,43 %)
$AAPL (+2,66 %)
$NVDA (+0,58 %)
$ASTS (+9,58 %)
$HIMS (+9,5 %)

Thomas

@farlys

11Mo·

🚀 Market Momentum: +0.7\% Open as Political Hurdles Clear

November 12, 2025: The Market is Ready to Run.

The pre-market sentiment is overwhelmingly positive, driven by the powerful macro catalyst of the impending end of the longest US government shutdown. This political breakthrough, combined with signs of a slowing labor market that fuels Fed rate cut bets (67% chance in December), has unlocked broad optimism.

Our portfolio is seizing this momentum, already locking in a +0.7% gain this morning!

📈 Alpha Generation: Our Strategy Delivers

Our disciplined strategy is generating significant alpha, continuing to outperform major benchmarks over the past two months:

Portfolio Performance: Our portfolio has climbed +7.7% in the last two months.

Benchmark Performance: This compares favorably against the S&P 500's +5.63% and the Dow Jones' +3.98% in the same period.

🇪🇺 Key Drivers: Europe Leads the Charge

Today's +0.7% gain is strategically targeted, proving our positioning is correct, particularly in Europe:

1. European Financials (The Value Trade): The Eurozone rally is strong, with European indices opening positively (Frankfurt +0.59%, Paris +0.40%, Milan +0.48% at $44,652 points). This is supported by the slight easing of German inflation to $2.3% in October. Our holdings are surging:

2. Growth Outlook (RKLB): While $RKLB is still in the red in the portfolio, we remain highly confident in its ability to return to profit soon. We are focusing on fundamental strength and long-term trends in the aerospace sector.

3. Defensive Core: Our safe-haven assets are holding steady; Gold ($GLD$) is showing slight positivity this morning, consolidating recent gains as the market anticipates the release of key US economic data.

🧠 Deep Dive: Why the Market is Running Today

The market is moving because key sources of uncertainty are clearing and liquidity expectations are rising:

Political Gridlock Ends: The House is set to vote today, November 12th, on a compromise bill that will restore funding to government agencies and end the US shutdown. This passage is crucial, as it will unblock critical economic data like CPI and employment, which have been long-awaited.

Rate Cuts Are Back on the Table: The latest weak ADP job data reinforces bets on Federal Reserve easing. Fed Funds futures are now pricing a 67% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in December. This renewed dovish sentiment is the primary fuel for equity markets, despite minor tech sector consolidation.

Contrasting Macro: The market is managing to rally despite the Treasury placing €8.5 Billion in 12-month BOTs and continued caution regarding the final signature on the funding bill.

Actionable Insight: We are positioned to benefit from the return of liquidity and the dovish pivot while capitalizing on targeted value trades in Europe. The momentum is here.

Ready to outperform the market? Copy my strategy now.

⚠️ Disclaimer: Past performance is not an indication of future results. The content above is for information and educational purposes only. Investing involves risk, and you may lose some or all of your money.

Thomas

@farlys

1Année·

💎 Market Focus: Strategic Discipline Prevails Over Political Optimism (Nov 11, 2025)

The market opened today in a state of strategic divergence. While past market history (such as the Nov 2024 post-election rally) suggests broad euphoria, today's action contradicts a simple "Risk-On" narrative, heavily rewarding caution and discipline instead.

I. Political Euphoria Ignored: The Core Signal is Defense

Political optimism, fueled by progress on the US Shutdown Bill and speculation about increased deregulation and dealmaking, is *not* translating into a generalized rally. The market is clearly choosing shelter:

Gold ($GLD) Surging: The massive rush into Gold is proof that investors are prioritizing long-term strategic defense over potential short-term political gains. Unlike euphoric contexts where Bitcoin soared, capital is oriented towards structural safety.

Tech Under Cautious Pressure: In a truly euphoric environment, Mega-Cap Tech names should be soaring. Today, however, $NVDA (+0,58 %) and $MSFT (-2,14 %) are slightly down. This confirms that valuation caution prevails over pure political sentiment.

II. Sector Rotation: Quality and Value

Today's strength is highly selective and rewards tangible value, contrasting with the political optimism:

European Financials Leading: European banks continue to show exceptional strength, signaling that funds are actively seeking robust value sectors. $CE (+0,49 %) and $BPE (-1,43 %) are sharply up, leading the Italian banking sector rally. This movement reflects a preference for Value and consistent returns amid rate uncertainty.

Macro Context: This strong rotation happens even as market reports flag renewed US Fiscal concerns and lingering thin liquidity, reinforcing the defensive positioning in our portfolio.

III. Conclusion: Strategic Defense is Our Edge

Today's market action serves as a crucial lesson in strategic discipline.

We are not chasing political upside; we are capitalizing on the market's need for safety (Gold) and value (Banks). Our strategy of maintaining a strong allocation in defensive assets is what allows us to generate significant alpha precisely when general market sentiment is mixed and high-growth sectors are struggling.

Stay disciplined. Trust the process.

⚠️ *Disclaimer: Past performance is not an indication of future results. The content above is for information and educational purposes only. Investing involves risk, and you may lose some or all of your money.*

Thomas

@farlys

1Année·

📊 Market Update (November 5, 2025)

Today's market is showing a mixed but generally positive tone across key sectors. While some tech giants are lagging, traditional finance, certain industrials, and defensive plays are showing strength, indicating a selective "risk-on" sentiment.

🇺🇸 US Equities (Pre-market/Early Trading)

$SPX500 — Trading solidly higher, driven by positive sentiment in various sectors, though tech is mixed.

$DJ30 — Moving up, reflecting broad positive sentiment.

$NSDQ100 — Showing mixed performance, with some mega-cap tech names under pressure.

💻 Tech & Growth Snapshot

A mixed picture in tech, with strong gains but also significant losses:

$NVDA (+0,58 %) — Trading slightly lower, indicating some profit-taking in the semiconductor space.

$GOOGL (+2,42 %) — Up strongly, showing robust performance in the mega-cap tech space.

$MSFT (-2,14 %) — Down significantly, acting as a drag on the overall tech sector.

$TSM (+5,07 %) — Up slightly, showing resilience in the chip sector.

$AVGO (+5,1 %) — Up strongly, participating in the semiconductor rally.

$RGTI (+0,7 %) — Up sharply, outperforming as some speculative growth names find renewed interest.

🛍️ Retail & Commerce

A strong day for retail and e-commerce, recovering from previous sessions:

$AMZN (-1,28 %) — Up, participating in the mega-cap rally.

$BABA (-0,05 %) — Up strongly, showing a significant rebound in the Chinese retail sector.

$SHOP (+1,71 %) — Up, showing positive momentum.

⚕️ Health & Pharmaceutical

A positive session for the health sector:

$INSM (+1,74 %) — Up, showing strength in biotech.

$HIMS (+9,5 %) — Up, indicating positive sentiment in health services.

🇪🇺 Europe & Industrials

European markets are generally positive, with strong performances in finance and defense:

STOXX 600 — Trading higher, led by a strong rally in the banking sector.

GER40 — Trading higher, reflecting the positive sentiment.

$LDO (-2,04 %) — Up strongly, the defense sector is showing significant strength.

$IBE (+0,15 %) — Trading slightly lower, utilities lag as investors move towards growth.

🏦 Banking & Finance

A very strong day for European financials, leading the overall market higher:

$BBVA (-0,42 %) — Up strongly, the Spanish bank is showing significant gains.

$UCG (+0,37 %) — Advancing higher, part of the strong European banking rally.

$ISP (-1,35 %) — Up strongly, showing clear outperformance.

$BPE (-1,43 %) — Surging higher, continuing its rally and leading the Italian banks.

$CE (+0,49 %) — Trading slightly lower, bucking the trend of other Italian banks.

$AXP (+0,59 %) / $V (+1,28 %) — Trading higher, the payments sector is positive.

🌏 Asia

Asian markets are expected to close mixed to positive, heavily impacted by the strong rebound in major Chinese names like $BABA.

💎 Commodities & Precious Metals

$GLD (-0,43 %) — Up strongly. Gold is showing significant strength today, reflecting renewed safe-haven demand or inflation concerns despite the broader mixed-to-positive equity market. I have strong, unwavering confidence in Gold as a core protective and strategic asset for the long term.

$CDE (-1,16 %) — Up strongly, mirroring gold's positive direction.

💰 Crypto

$BTC (-0,41 %) / $ETH (-0,62 %) / $TRX (+0,14 %) — Likely moving lower, following the general risk-on mood.

🔎 Deep Dive: Sector Rotation and Resilience

Today's market highlights a clear sector rotation. Investors are re-engaging with European financials and select tech names, while taking profits in others. The strong rebound in $BABA suggests a renewed, albeit cautious, appetite for growth. The strength in Gold ($GLD) alongside some equity gains is particularly noteworthy, indicating a complex sentiment where both risk-taking and wealth preservation are at play.

Follow the Analysis:

For daily real-time market insights, deep dives, and trading discussions, follow me on X: https://x.com/ThomasVioli

To copy my portfolio, strategies, and complete trade insights, you can follow me on eToro: https://www.eToro.com/people/farlys

⚠️ Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the loss of capital.

Titres populaires

Meilleurs créateurs cette semaine

Données en temps réel par LSX · Données fondamentales et de clôture de FactSet