Postes
16Dear fellow investors!
I received my dividend from UC yesterday and today it was canceled again. Is this also the case for you or is Flatex on a lonely path again?
Addendum: According to Flatex support, there was a problem with the withholding tax booking - so the dividend will be transferred again next week.
Bundeskartellamt gives Unicredit the green light for Commerzbank investment
The German Federal Cartel Office has given Unicredit $UCG (-1,22 %) a stake of up to 29.99 percent in Commerzbank. $CBK in Commerzbank. This decision is a turning point for the Milan-based bank, which wants to significantly expand its presence in the private and corporate customer business in Germany. The head of the Cartel Office, Andreas Mundt, stated that there are sufficient competitors to secure market access. Unicredit CEO Andrea Orcel has been pursuing the takeover of Commerzbank for some time and already has 28 percent of the shares in her pocket, 9.5 percent of which is directly through shares and 18.5 percent through financial instruments. A 30 percent stake would oblige Unicredit to submit an official purchase offer. However, a final decision on the merger is not expected until next year, as Orcel is currently in talks with the new German government to clarify the next steps.
US investors optimistic despite customs unrest
In the USA, investors on Wall Street are optimistic at the start of the week in view of the latest tariff exemptions. The Dow Jones rose by 0.8 percent, while the technology-oriented Nasdaq gained 0.6 percent. Investors are confident that electronic devices such as smartphones and computers will be spared from the new tariffs. President Donald Trump has announced that he will soon publish details of the tariffs on semiconductors, which is causing excitement. These uncertainties are also reflected in the currency market, where the dollar index fell by 0.3%. Tech stocks in particular, such as Apple $AAPL (-3,17 %) and HP $HPQ in particular were able to benefit from the tariff exemptions and recorded positive price movements. Apple rose by 2.2 percent, indicating possible relief in prices for consumer goods.
Sources:
https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Unicredit-kommt-Ubernahme-von-Commerzbank-naeher-article25703117.html
https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/US-Anleger-wagen-sich-aus-der-Deckung-article25704622.html
We do not speak very often about the Italian lender $UCG (-1,22 %)) here, but they published strong results yesterday. Very little details on $CBK (+2,67 %) but more to come at the Q1'25 results as it seems.
Who has UniCredit in their portfolio, or thinks it is interesting for the future?
René Benko, the Austrian real estate investor & founder of Signa Holding, was arrested at his villa in Innsbruck on January 23, 2025. The Vienna-based Vienna-based economic and corruption prosecutor's office (WKStA) ordered the arrest after serious allegations were made against him. The main charges include fraud and insolvency offenses as well as the concealment of assets. In addition, there is a risk of concealment and the danger of committing further crimes, which led to his arrest.
The investigations against Benko, who is considered the de facto ruler of the Laura Private Foundation, have their origins in the insolvency of Signa Holding in November 2023, which is considered the largest bankruptcy in Austrian economic history. Benko is accused of deliberately hiding the assets of his companies in order to make it more difficult for creditors to enforce their claims. Specific allegations include:
In particular, he is accused of systematically concealing losses and debts in the balance sheets of his companies, delaying the actual financial situation of Signa Holding and misusing company funds. It is also suspected that he deliberately shifted assets in order to avoid creditor claims.
The investigations extend across several countries.
In Austria the WKStA is investigating Benko for the aforementioned offenses. In Germany public prosecutor's offices in Munich & Berlin are involved, which are also investigating suspicions of money laundering, insolvency fraud and embezzlement. In Italy an investigation by the public prosecutor's office Trento on suspicion of the formation of a criminal organization & anti-mafia investigations. Also in Liechtenstein there are also investigations into money laundering and insolvency fraud. The investigations are based on telephone surveillance, message analysis and witness statements.
If Benko is found guilty, this could have serious consequences. The immediate paralysis of Signa Holding and the possible demise of the affiliated companies could be imminent, which could lead to an enormous burden for creditors and investors. Creditors could face claims amounting to 2.4 billion euros which could result in the break-up of Benko's real estate empire. Subsidiaries of his group are also threatened by possible insolvency. Furthermore, the investigations could lead to the confiscation of assets.
Benko is part of an extensive network of business partners and investors. The $RBI (+1,13 %) is the largest creditor with 750 million eurosand has also $UCG (-1,22 %) has granted significant loans to Signa. Other investors, such as the RAG Foundation, Fressnapf founder Torsten Toeller and Klaus-Michael Kühneare closely associated with Benko.
Political networks also play a role, as former politicians such as Joschka Fischer and Ole von Beust worked as lobbyists for Benko. In addition Alfred Gusenbauer consulting services to the value of 6 million euros were invoiced.
Insurance companies and banks involved in the Signa network also bear financial risks. A total of 46 insurance companies have done business with the Signa Group, with 9 insurers having invested more than 1% of their portfolio in Signa. The complex network and interdependencies mean considerable financial exposure for all partners involved.
January 20-24, 2025, Davos, Switzerland
The World Economic Forum (WEF) is an international organization founded by Klaus Schwab in Switzerland in 1971. It promotes cooperation between business, politics, science & civil society. The Annual Meeting takes place in Davos. The motto for this year:
"Cooperation in the age of intelligence"
The World Economic Forum 2025 is dedicated to a wide range of topics, including geopolitical tensions, economic growth and the transition to clean energy. At the same time, tech, AI, quantum computing & biotech also play an important role.
As always, there will be posts on all relevant topics from @HennRes & @Michael-official will be published. Under the #wef2025 you will be able to view all posts in chronological order.
Main topics:
Participants from politics & business.
Over 350 government representatives, including 60 heads of state & government, 1600 people from the private sector, including 900 CEOs and over 170 people from NGOs, trade unions, academia and indigenous peoples are also present.
The key figures from politics are:
Executives from the private sector (who are expected/ not offical)
Technology sector
Financial sector
Banking sector
Industry sector
... and many more from the Tech, Banking, AI, Biotech, Pharma, Industrial, etc. sectors.
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- KEPLER CHEUVREUX raises the price target for SAP from EUR 200 to EUR 230. Hold. $SAP (-0,14 %)
- UBS upgrades HUGO BOSS from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from EUR 41 to EUR 49. $BOSS (-2,54 %)
- BOFA raises the price target for FRAPORT from EUR 55 to EUR 56. Neutral. $FRA (+0,04 %)
- UBS raises target price for RICHEMONT from CHF 144 to CHF 150. Buy. $CFR (-0,78 %)
- BOFA upgrades HOCHTIEF from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from EUR 112 to EUR 140. $HOT (+1,25 %)
- JPMORGAN raises target price for FEDEX from USD 350 to USD 366. Overweight. $FDX (-1,74 %)
- JPMORGAN raises the price target for ROCHE from CHF 220 to CHF 230. Underweight. $ROG (-0,74 %)
- UBS upgrades BMW from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from EUR 75 to EUR 83. $BMW (-0,01 %)
- JEFFERIES raises target price for UNICREDIT from EUR 47 to EUR 49. Buy. $UCG (-1,22 %)
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- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB lowers the price target for DELIVERY HERO from EUR 61 to EUR 52. Buy. $DHER (+0,5 %)
- BARCLAYS lowers the target price for VOLKSWAGEN VORZÜGE from EUR 110 to EUR 100. Overweight. $VOW (-0,56 %)
- BARCLAYS lowers the target price for PORSCHE SE from EUR 35 to EUR 30. Underweight. $PAH3 (-0,53 %)
- UBS downgrades MERCEDES-BENZ from Buy to Neutral and lowers target price from EUR 72 to EUR 55. $MBG (+1,74 %)
- EXANE BNP downgrades HYPOPORT from Outperform to Neutral. $HYQ (+1,96 %)
- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB lowers the price target for IBU-TEC from EUR 12 to EUR 7.40. Hold. $IBU (+1,58 %)
- KEPLER CHEUVREUX downgrades SYMRISE from Buy to Hold and lowers target price from EUR 122 to EUR 114. $SY1 (+0,8 %)
- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for SANOFI from EUR 90 to EUR 85. Sell. $SAN (-1,7 %)
- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for CARL ZEISS MEDITEC from EUR 56 to EUR 45. Underweight. $AFX (+0,25 %)
- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for SARTORIUS from EUR 290 to EUR 275. Overweight. $SRT (-0,68 %)
Week in review 28.09.
New all-time highs for DAX, Dow Jones, S&P 500, Gold, GE Vernova, Meta, Netflix, SAP, Vistra Corp, Walmart 👑🥇 $LYY7 (+0,88 %)
$CSPX (-0,78 %)
$ABX (+1,35 %)
$GEV (+1,07 %)
$META (-0,12 %)
$NFLX (-2,35 %)
$SAP (-0,14 %)
$VST (+0,33 %)
$WMT (+0,4 %)
New 52-week highs for 3M, Air Products, Alibaba, Arista Networks, Barrick Gold, Bank of Nova Scotia, BlackRock, Caterpillar, Constellation Energy, DuPont, HSBC, Infosys, Live Nation, McDonald's, Palantir, PayPal, Public Storage, Royal Bank of Canada, Royal Caribbean, Sea Ltd, Spotify, Tangier 💵📈 $PLTR (-6,58 %)
$9988 (+0,6 %)
$BABA (+0,54 %)
$BLK
$CAT (-0,52 %)
$BNS (-0,83 %)
$STZ (+0,64 %)
$DD (-2,34 %)
$HSBA (+0,42 %)
$HSBC (+0,4 %)
$INFY
$LYV (+1,65 %)
$MCD (+1,23 %)$PUB
$PUB
$RCL (-0,82 %)
$SEA (-0 %)
$SKT (-1,21 %)
Bitcoin with new 1-month high, +22% in three weeks since the low on 07.09. from 52k$ to 66k$, +150% in 12 months📉📈 $BTC (-0,37 %)
PayPal's own stablecoin PYUSD (crypto) is growing strongly and is now one of the top 100 cryptos by market capitalization at 95th place 💰 $PYPL (+1,37 %)
Palantir with inclusion in the S&P 500 on Monday #PLTRgang 🤜🤛👊✊ $PLTR (-6,58 %)
Uber is working with Google's Waymo (Alphabet) and wants to offer robotaxis for a surcharge 🚗🤖 $UBER (+1 %)
$GOOGL (+0,06 %)
$GOOG (+0,06 %)
After the ECB and FED, China has also turned on the money printer *brrr brrr*, plus a big economic stimulus program, China stocks therefore have their best week in 10 years, car and luxury stocks with Chinese business are therefore rising 🖨🇨🇳 $MC (-0,97 %)
$P911 (+0,42 %)
$BMW (-0,01 %)
$MBG (+1,74 %)
AMD CEO and Nvidia CEO confirm continued high demand for AI chips 🧠🤖, Nvidia CEO does not want to sell any more of his own shares for the time being. $AMD (+1,98 %)
$NVDA (-0,64 %)
Upcoming Playstation 6 with AMD chip again, but AMD will leave the high-end graphics card market for PC gamers and try to scale more strongly in the mid and lower segments. Nvidia would then have a monopoly 🎮 $SONY (-0,45 %)
$6758 (+0,09 %)
Super Micro suspected of accounting fraud. US justice is apparently already investigating according to an insider, -62% share price in three months 🔍👮 $SMCI
AI needs a lot of electricity and nuclear power plants are being reactivated in the USA. In Germany, it's the other way around due to the world's stupidest energy policy. US electricity provider shares, uranium mines - shares and ETFs are rising. ⚛️⚡️ (see podcast episode 57 "Buy High. Sell Low." pinned to my profile at the top) $URNM
$URA (-1,03 %)
$UEC (-0,68 %)
Micron with good quarterly figures and +13% share price, semiconductor stocks rally 💻📈 $MU (-0,76 %)
Costco - quarterly figures mixed, EPS exceeds estimates but sales worse than expected, share price falls slightly 🛒 $COST (+0,55 %)
McDonald's increases quarterly dividend by 6% to 1.77$. Since the first dividend payment in 1976, the payout has been increased 48 years in a row. 🍟🍔 $MCD (+1,23 %)
Investigation initiated against Visa 💳 and SAP 💻 in the USA for illegal price fixing $V (-0,23 %)
$SAP (-0,14 %)
Oil price falls again, Shell & Co. on the way to 1-year low 🛢⛽️ $SHEL (-2,58 %)
$GB00B03MM408
$RDS.A
Meta releases VR glasses Quest 3s for €330 from 15.10.24 📱👓
Intel launches AI accelerator "Gaudi 3" as an alternative to Nvidia's H100. IBM, Google & Dell as first customers. 🧠 $INTC (-1,48 %)
US debt level climbs above 35 trillion dollars for the first time 🖨💵
Ubisoft share price collapses due to postponement of "Assassin's Creed: Shadows", -70% 1-year performance 🎮📉 $UBI (-1,11 %)
DHL raises outlook / growth forecast until 2030 and increases letter postage by 10.5% in Germany from 2025 📦✉️📯 $DHL (-3,32 %)
BASF struggles with high energy prices and weak demand, threat of plant closure and dividend cut 🇩🇪📉 $BAS (-4,18 %)
Adidas (+28%) significantly better than Nike (-18%) since the beginning of the year ⚽️🏀👟 $ADS (+0,02 %)
$NKE (-2,19 %)
Takeover poker at Commerzbank by Ital. Unicredit continues 🏦🇮🇹🇩🇪 $CBK (+2,67 %)
$UCG (-1,22 %)
Jefferies issued a buy recommendation for BioNTech and sees the antibody BNT327 against cancer as a potential massive sales driver. 👨⚕️⚕️💊 $DE000A0V9BC4
Mutares -14% because shortseller Gotham City raises serious allegations against the SDAX member: Ponzi scheme, false accounting and circular business model 🔍👮 $MUX (-3,78 %)
>> If you want to read a review like this every week, leave a like & subscribe. What important news have I forgotten? 👍❤️
+ 6
As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.
Also as a video:
https://youtube.com/shorts/98gSyf4ik54?si=lSB_tDY1ht0EYRQS
Monday:
Food prices are rising in China 🇨🇳 and thus increasing inflation. In the first few years after coronavirus, China even had problems with deflation. Even now, inflation is only 0.6%.
Tuesday:
Despite all the crises, more dividends will still be paid out in 2024. 92% of all companies worldwide are likely to increase their dividends. Overall, dividends paid out are likely to rise by 5% to 1.74 trillion US dollars worldwide. The 20 largest dividend payers worldwide in the second quarter include many German 🇩🇪Unternehmen $MBG (+1,74 %) Mercedes (USD 6.1 billion),$ALV (+1,54 %) Allianz (USD 5.8 billion), Deutsche Telekom (USD $DTE (+0,5 %) Deutsche Telekom (USD 4.1 billion) and $BMW (-0,01 %) BMW (USD 3.9 billion). The largest payout was made by $HSBA (+0,42 %) HSBC (USD 11.7 billion). This is followed by the Swiss 🇨🇭Konzern $NESN (-0,22 %) Nestlé (USD 8.7 billion).
The two tech companies $AAPL (-3,17 %) Apple and $GOOGL (+0,06 %) Alphabet must pay billions to the EU. Apple has now suffered a final defeat before the ECJ due to alleged state aid by Ireland. Apple now has to pay 13 billion euros in back taxes plus interest.
Alphabet also lost in court and has to pay a fine of 2.4 billion euros. The reason is that Alphabet probably favored its own price comparison service in search engine advertising.
$BMW (-0,01 %) BMW cuts its targets and recalls 1.5 million cars. The main reason is probably faulty parts from suppliers. BMW is therefore focusing more on monitoring and training suppliers. Instead of 8 - 10 % profit margin, the target is now 6 - 7 %.
$VOW (-0,56 %) VW unilaterally cancels the job guarantee. The termination letters for six collective agreements were handed over to IG-Metall Lower Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt today. Dismissals for operational reasons are possible from July 1, 2025. Previously, job guarantees were in place until 2029, with VW justifying the end with excessively high costs in Germany, which are no longer competitive.
Wednesday:
Heated debate between Trump and Harris. Trump is directly convicted several times by the moderators with false statements. Immediately after the debate, Taylor Swift also speaks out in favor of Harris.
Major insider purchase at $HFG (+0,07 %) Hellofresh, CEO Dominik Richter buys shares for more than 10 million euros.
https://www.boerse.de/nachrichten/EQS-DD-HelloFresh-SE-DSR-Ventures-GmbH-Kauf/36459409
There are many indications of an attempted takeover of $CBK (+2,67 %) Commerzbank by $UCG (-1,22 %) Unicredit buys directly from the German state for more than 700 million euros.
Inflation in the USA falls to 2.5% shortly before the Fed meeting and is thus approaching the 2.0% target. Experts had only expected a fall to 2.6%. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) remained at 3.2%. This should make it clear that the Fed is lowering interest rates. However, the amount of the cut is still unclear.
Thursday:
The ECB cuts the key interest rate by 25 basis points, which is in line with expectations. As a result, there has hardly been any impact on the stock market so far.
Producer prices in the US have risen slightly more than expected. However, the previous month's data was revised downwards slightly. Compared to the same month last year, producer prices rose by 1.7%. Producer prices are a leading indicator for the inflation rate in around 3 months' time.
https://www.ariva.de/news/usa-anstieg-der-erzeugerpreise-schwcht-sich-ab-11369313
Friday:
More and more market participants are expecting a large rate cut of 50 basis points at the Fed decision next week. In the meantime, 47% of interest rate traders believe a rate cut of half a percentage point is likely. If this is indeed the case, there is further upside potential for the markets. On the other hand, if this does not happen, there could be a major sell-off. This decision is therefore likely to move the markets in any case.
Most important dates in the coming week:
Tuesday: 11:00 ZEW Economic Sentiment (DE)
Wednesday: 20:00 Fed interest rate decision (USA)
Thursday: 13:00 BoE interest rate decision (UK)
Is the European banking sector (finally) entering its much expected consolidation phase?
In my previous job as an M&A banker for Deutsche Bank, I spent most of my time working on recapitalisations of banks, and back then Italy was a hot topic. But not because it was going well, rather they had taken too many bad loans and they were in dire need for cash injections to keep the business running.
Now fast forward a couple of years, $UCG (-1,22 %) , seems to have done many right decisions and is in a good position to either build a sizeable stake in $CBK (+2,67 %) , or even consider a fully fledged takeover. Interesting to note, that UniCredit has already a Germany business, so they would be strong synergies in play, both commercially and cost-wise. But the later will raise issues with labour unions.
In case you are wondering why now may be a good time for this:
Many believe that $CBK (+2,67 %) is still cheaply valued, so UniCredit could get in at an attractive price (even if you consider an acquisition premium).
German government wants to further reduce the stake it built when helping the bank during the financial crisis in '08.
Rate environment is getting more friendly again for banks, so profits are likely to improve in the medium term.
Market caps of European banks are still subpar to those of US & Chinese peers. If Europe wants to get more competitive, we definitely need larger banks.
All in all, excited to see what other movements or rather intentions we will see in the next few months!
Commerzbank shares recorded a strong double-digit rise after CEO Manfred Knof announced that he would not be renewing his contract, which could trigger strategic changes.
Italian bank UniCredit also acquired new shares in Commerzbank, which is seen as potentially paving the way for closer cooperation between the two institutions. There is also speculation about a possible merger between Commerzbank and UniCredit.
This move towards a possible merger could have a significant impact on the shareholding of the Federal Republic of Germany, which held around 15.6% of Commerzbank but has reduced its stake by around 4%.
