Hello dear community,

I have been running a small savings plan on $BP. (+0,55 %) and have recently returned to the green zone with the share.

What is your assessment of BP in terms of the company's current and future (short-sighted) business model?

Should I get out of BP and switch to e.g. $SHEL (-0,11 %) or just let it run.

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$BP. (+0,55 %) has won its arbitration case against $VG (+2,2 %) after the US supplier failed to deliver liquefied natural gas (LNG) under a long-term contract that was due to start at the end of 2022. This was announced by Venture Global on Thursday.

According to Venture Global, the International Court of Arbitration of the International Chamber of Commerce found in an official notice that the company had breached its obligations to declare the start of commercial operation of the Calcasieu Pass facility on time and to act as a "reasonable and prudent operator".

The ruling in favor of BP contrasts with a decision in August in which Venture Global prevailed in a similar appeal by Shell. It was initially unclear why the two proceedings led to different outcomes. BP is seeking damages in excess of 1 billion US dollars plus interest, costs and legal fees.

The company is disappointed with the arbitral tribunal's decision in the BP case, which Venture Global believes contradicts the key findings in the previous arbitration with Shell," Venture Global said in the statement.

Venture Global's shares fell more than 10% in after-hours trading, reducing the company's market capitalization by nearly $3.3 billion.

HEARING ON THE AMOUNT OF DAMAGES NEXT YEAR

A separate hearing is planned for 2026 to determine the extent of the damages that the US operator must pay to BP. According to Venture Global, the sum could exceed the upper limit for claims from BP and other customers set out in the original sales agreement.

BP said it was satisfied with the outcome of this phase of the arbitration and looked forward to Venture Global determining the amount of compensation for breach of contract.

Venture Global said it is exploring all available options in response to the ruling and will continue to vigorously defend its position.

On Thursday, the company also reported that a settlement had been reached with another Calcasieu Pass customer that had also filed for arbitration, without naming the company.

This settlement has no material impact on Venture Global, the statement said.

Other companies, including Edison and Galp, have also filed claims against Venture Global. They accuse the company of profiting from spot sales of LNG following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 instead of delivering previously contracted LNG supplies from the Calcasieu Pass export facility in Louisiana at significantly lower prices.

Throughout the dispute, Venture Global argued that it was entitled to the spot sales after the official start of commercial operations was delayed due to a faulty power island.

The company commenced official commercial operations at Calcasieu Pass in April 2025 and has since realized significantly lower prices by selling LNG to BP and other customers under the terms of the contract.

Venture Global's average revenues fell by around 70% in the second quarter compared to the first quarter following the start of the long-term supply contracts and the halt to the controversial spot sales. In the same period, the relevant Dutch gas price index TTF, on which the prices for most LNG cargoes sold by Venture Global in Europe are based, fell by 24%.

$BP. (+0,55 %)

In the period from April to June, BP achieved an adjusted net result of 2.35 billion US dollars - well above the figure forecast by LSEG forecast of 1.81 billion US dollars. By comparison, the result in the previous quarter was USD 1.38 billion and USD 2.76 billion in the same period last year.

The operating cash flow amounted to USD 6.27 billion, which represents a significant increase compared to the first quarter. Reported net profit amounted to USD 1.63 billion, a sharp increase on the USD 0.7 billion reported in the first quarter.

The British group announced that it would increase its dividend for the second quarter to 8.32 US cents per ordinary share - an increase of 4 percent compared to the previous quarter. BP is also launching a new share buyback program worth 750 million US dollars, which should be completed before the Q3 results are announced.

BP also reiterated its long-term strategy of distributing 30-40 percent of operating cash flow to shareholders through a combination of dividends and buybacks.

The AEX index starts the day with an indication of +0.3%, while international markets also turn green. Wall Street largely managed to recover from Friday's sell-off, and Asian stock markets follow with Korea and Taiwan as outliers. U.S. 10-year interest rates rise slightly to 4.21%, while German rates fall to 2.62%. The euro/dollar exchange rate is quoted at 1.1550. The Damrak is relatively quiet, with only B&S presenting figures. Internationally, however, there is plenty of activity: Palantir surprises with strong quarterly results, while Hims & Hers falls sharply. Figma debuts with a 27.4% drop. The US puts pressure on India and China because of Russian oil imports, further raising trade tensions. Investors look forward to figures from AMD, Snap, Rivian and Super Micro Computer. Also on the agenda are the purchasing managers' indices of the service sectors in Germany and the US. In short: plenty of excitement and thrills on the trading floor.

$PLTR (+1,39 %)
$HIMS (+8,55 %)
$SHEL (-0,11 %)
$BP. (+0,55 %)
$AMD (-0,22 %)
$SNAP (+1,51 %)
$RIVN (+2,59 %)
$SMCI (+2,03 %)

🔗 Source reference:

This summary is based on the article "AEX indicatie is +0,3%, volop spanning en nog meer sensatie" by Arend Jan Kamp, published on StockWatch on Aug. 5, 2025.