Deutsche Boerse Action Forum

Deutsche Börse Q3 2024 $DB1 (+1,35 %)

Financial performance:

Deutsche Börse Group delivered a strong financial performance in Q3 2024, with net revenue up 18% to €1,403.9 million compared to Q3 2023. Growth was driven by both organic expansion and the acquisition of SimCorp, which contributed 9% to the increase in revenue. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) rose by 17% to EUR 801.8 million. Net profit attributable to shareholders rose to EUR 444.9 million, compared to EUR 400.3 million in the third quarter of 2023. Earnings per share increased by 12% to EUR 2.42.

Balance sheet analysis:

The balance sheet shows an increase in total assets to EUR 301,326.3 million as at September 30, 2024, compared to EUR 237,726.9 million at the end of 2023. This growth is mainly due to the acquisition of SimCorp and the increase in financial instruments held by central counterparties. Shareholders' equity also increased to EUR 10,527.7 million, compared to EUR 10,100.2 million at the end of 2023.

Income statement:

Return on sales increased by 21% to 1,452.0 million euros for the third quarter of 2024. Operating costs increased by 20% to 603.4 million euros, mainly due to the SimCorp acquisition. The result from financial assets amounted to EUR 1.3 million and was down slightly compared to EUR 1.4 million in the third quarter of 2023.

Key figures and profitability:

Earnings per share (EPS) increased by 12% to 2.42 euros and cash EPS increased by 10% to 2.61 euros. The EBITDA margin remains robust, indicating efficient cost management despite rising operating costs.

Segment analysis:

• Investment Management Solutions: Net sales increased by 69%, driven by client wins in software solutions and higher demand for ESG solutions.
• Trading & Clearing: Net sales increased by 10%, supported by strong demand for interest rate derivatives and record trading volumes in commodities.
• Securities Services: Benefited from higher global debt issuance and trading activity in bonds, resulting in a 7% increase in net sales.

Competitive analysis:

Deutsche Börse Group strengthens its market position through strategic acquisitions such as SimCorp and benefits from secular growth trends in commodities and ESG solutions. The focus on digitalization and the introduction of cloud solutions give the company a further competitive advantage.

Management forecasts and comments:

The company has revised its annual forecast for 2024 upwards and expects net sales of around EUR 5.8 billion and EBITDA of between EUR 3.3 and 3.4 billion. Management is confident of achieving the goals of the Horizon 2026 strategy, with a focus on organic growth and the successful integration of acquisitions.

Risks and opportunities:

The main risks include regulatory challenges and market fluctuations. However, there are opportunities in the expansion of the ESG offering, the use of digital assets and the exploitation of secular growth trends in the commodities sector.

Conclusion and strategic implications:

Deutsche Börse Group's strong financial performance in Q3 2024 underscores its strategic focus on organic growth and acquisitions. The successful integration of SimCorp and the emphasis on digitalization position the company well for future growth. The upward revision to 2024 guidance reflects management's confidence in maintaining this momentum and remaining aligned with the Horizon 2026 strategy. I naturally remain invested in one of the best German stocks.

Positive statements:

• Net sales increased by 18% to € 1,403.9 million compared to the third quarter of 2023, driven by both organic growth and the acquisition of SimCorp.
• Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) increased by 17% to € 801.8 million.
• The Investment Management Solutions division reported a 69% increase in revenue, driven by significant client wins and higher demand for ESG solutions.
• Trading & Clearing reported a 10% increase in revenue, supported by strong demand for interest rate derivatives and record commodity trading volumes.
• Group net profit attributable to shareholders increased to € 444.9 million, compared to € 400.3 million in Q3 2023, with earnings per share increasing by 12% to € 2.42.

Negative statements:

• Operating costs increased by 20% to € 603.4 million, mainly due to the acquisition of SimCorp.
• In the same period of the previous year, there was a write-down of around € 25 million on intangible assets at Crypto Finance AG in the Trading & Clearing division.
• Despite the overall growth, the Trading & Clearing equity unit recorded a 2% decline in revenue in the first nine months of 2024.
• Net interest margins from the banking business in the Fund Services unit fell by 1% in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the third quarter of 2023.
• The financial result showed a significant increase in financial expenses, with a rise of 295% to € -43.4 million.

21.10.2024

iPhone 16 gets off to a strong start: Apple registers 20% more sales in China + SAP is too valuable for the German stock exchange + DAX outlook: 20,000-point mark remains firmly in sight + 11 DATEs that will be important this week + Jefferies lowers Munich Re to 'Hold' - target 485 euros

Apple $AAPL (+0,67 %) can score points in China with a successful launch of the new iPhone 16. According to a Bloomberg report based on data from Counterpoint Research, sales in the first three weeks after the market launch were 20 percent higher than the previous year's model, with the more expensive versions of the new iPhone doing particularly well. Sales of the Pro and Pro Max models increased by 44 percent. According to Counterpoint analyst Ivan Lam, the start of production of the iPhone 15 last year was still characterized by supply bottlenecks, which slowed down the initial sales figures. These problems have largely been overcome with the iPhone 16.

The software company SAP $SAP (+1,47 %) was the first to reach the new DAX cap of 15 percent. What now? Over the past year, the value of the German software group SAP has risen sharply. The company is currently valued at 212 euros per share on the Dax. Twelve months ago it was less than 130 euros.

https://www.golem.de/news/dax-unternehmen-sap-ist-zu-wertvoll-fuer-die-deutsche-boerse-2410-189998.html

With an increase of around 0.4 percent to 19,657 points, the DAX $GDAXI went into the weekend last Friday. This means that the stock market barometer could launch another attack on the 20,000-point mark in the coming week. Investors can find out which topics could influence the price trend in the DAX outlook. Do you think the 20,000 points will fall?

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/maerkte-forex-zinsen/dax-ausblick-20000-punkte-marke-bleibt-fest-im-visier-20368521.html

The analyst firm Jefferies has Munich Re $MUV2 (+0,58 %) from "buy" to "hold" and lowered its price target from 495 to 485 euros. In a study published on Monday, analyst Philip Kett mentioned that the reinsurer's share price had reached record highs despite Hurricane Milton. He reassessed his estimates and came to the conclusion that there was hardly any room for rising market expectations. His price target had already been exceeded.

11 DATES that will be important this week

1 China's central bank cuts key interest rates

The People's Bank of China is likely to ease its monetary policy further. Analysts expect it to lower its reference rates for 5-year and 1-year corporate loans to 3.65% (currently: 3.85%) and 3.15% (3.35%) respectively. This expectation is not only fueled by the announcement of comprehensive economic policy measures to stimulate growth, but also by statements made by central bank governor Pan Gongsheng. According to reports in the Chinese local media, he held out the prospect of a reduction of 20 to 25 basis points at an event.

>>> Monday, October 21, 2024; 3:00

2nd IMF hardly changes growth forecasts - focus on government debt

Economists and politicians are meeting in Washington for the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank. The agenda initially includes the publication of the current World Economic Outlook (3.00 p.m.) and the Global Financial Stability Report (4.15 p.m.) on Monday, followed by the Fiscal Monitor on Tuesday (3.00 p.m.). The opening speech by IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva indicates that the IMF will primarily discuss the high and rising level of public debt and look for ways to strengthen economic growth in order to improve debt sustainability. There will also be no shortage of calls for austerity. The finance ministers and central bank governors of the G20 will meet on Thursday.

>>> Monday, October 21, 2024, 15:00

3. SAP $SAP (+1,47 %)defies the weak economic environment

SAP appears to be unaffected by the weak economy. According to analysts' expectations, the Group seamlessly continued the growth of its cloud business in the third quarter. Even slight disruptive factors such as investigations in the USA and the departure of three board members have not thrown the Walldorf-based software giant off track. SAP will present its figures on Monday shortly after 22:00 after the close of the US stock exchange. An analysts' conference will take place at 23:00.

>>> Monday, October 21, 2024; 22:05

4. deutsche Börse $DB1 (+1,35 %)remains on course for growth with Simcorp

Deutsche Börse should have remained on course for growth in the third quarter. The figures are likely to be characterized by the integration of Simcorp and a good development in the Trading & Clearing division. The exchange operator will probably confirm its targets for the year as a whole. Larger acquisitions are currently not an issue, not only because of the ongoing integration of Simcorp, but probably also due to the change in the Group's top management.

>>> Tuesday, October 22, 2024; 19:00

5th Deutsche Bank $DBK (+2,28 %)with good investment banking - Postbank helps

The fact that Deutsche Bank is currently attracting less attention than a certain Frankfurt-based competitor is unlikely to be changed by the third quarter report. The bank will deliver solid figures and confirm its targets. Although the bank recently had to raise its forecast for risk provisioning, things are going well in the investment bank. CFO James von Moltke recently said that significant growth is expected, particularly in the M&A and issues business. The bank will also see a positive effect on earnings from the reversal of the Postbank provision, as it will not need the full EUR 1.3 billion for the settlement with the former Postbank shareholders. In this context, statements on new share buybacks should also be of interest.

>>> Wednesday, October 23, 2024; 7:00 a.m.

6 Beiersdorf $BEI (+0,14 %)on the home straight after the summer quarter

After the first nine months, Beiersdorf should be on track for its full-year targets for both sales and EBIT margin. The summer quarter is likely to have benefited from strong demand for sun protection and the derma skin care brands. The innovation Epicelline and the launch of Eucerin Face in the USA should also be well received. On the other hand, further declines in sales for the luxury cosmetics brand La Prairie in China. Nevertheless, organic sales growth at Group level and in both the Consumer and Tesa segments is likely to have been in line with the target range - with Consumer tending towards the upper end and Tesa and the Group towards the lower end. Following a pull-forward effect in the second quarter, Tesa could deliver somewhat weaker results in the third quarter. With the second quarter figures, Beiersdorf had explained that the development in the US market and at La Prairie in the second half of the year would be decisive for the positioning in the target range.

>>> Thursday, October 24, 2024; 07:00

7. symrise $SY1 (-0,24 %)could raise the forecast

Symrise is likely to have increased sales and margins in the third quarter. According to analysts, strong sales in both divisions and better pricing should have contributed to this. The focus is on the forecast. In August, CFO Olaf Klinger held out the prospect of a review after the end of the quarter and a possible increase - which is expected by the market. However, analysts at UBS also point out that the fragrance and flavor manufacturer usually gives conservative forecasts. Investors may also ask about the planned sale of the business with ingredients and flavor enhancers for feed for fish farming.

>>> Thursday, October 24, 2024; 07:30

9. Mercedes-Benz $MBG (+2,06 %)burdened by weakness in China

Burdened by the weak market environment and increasing price pressure, Mercedes-Benz recently had to lower its outlook for this year twice within a short space of time. The reluctance to buy has hit the DAX-listed company particularly hard in China, where sales of particularly expensive and high-margin luxury cars have increasingly lost momentum. However, there are also positive aspects that analysts are emphasizing at the Stuttgart-based premium car manufacturer, such as its commitment to the dividend payout ratio and share buybacks. The management should emphasize this again when presenting the quarterly figures so that the mood does not change even more.

>>> Friday, October 25, 2024; 07:30

10th Ifo business climate index rises in October

Economists expect the Ifo Business Climate Index to have risen again in October for the first time since April - to 85.6 (September: 85.4) points. Nevertheless, the situation of the German economy is tricky. From a cyclical perspective, an Ifo increase would indicate an improvement. Energy prices are no longer weighing so heavily on the economy and the effects of high key interest rates are slowly easing. However, the structural problems in the automotive industry, which is so important for Germany, are likely to persist for some time to come, and the rest of the export-oriented industry will also have to adjust to the new geopolitical conditions for some time to come.

>>> Friday, 25.10.2024; 10:00

11. at Porsche $P911 (+1,01 %)everything depends on the final quarter

The situation at Porsche has become increasingly gloomy in recent months. It was already foreseeable at the beginning of the year that the many model changes would entail high expenses and that the environment in China would be difficult. However, this was recently compounded by delivery problems, production interruptions and considerably tougher competition. When the figures for the third quarter are presented, analysts are only expecting a return of just over 11 percent - but Porsche is aiming for 14 to 15 percent for the year as a whole. The management's comments on the final quarter will therefore be the linchpin in terms of target achievement.

>>> Friday, October 25, 2024; 17:30

Monday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

CVS Health USD 0.67

Caterpillar 1.41 USD

Bank of New York Mellon USD 0.47

Husqvarna (B) SEK 2.00

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

03:00 Logitech quarterly figures

07:35 Forvia SE sales 3Q

18:30 Metro Trading Statement 4Q

22:05 SAP quarterly figures

23:00 SAP Analyst Conference

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: Producer prices September FORECAST: -0.2% yoy/-1.0% yoy previously: +0.2% yoy/-0.8% yoy
• 16:00 US: Index of leading indicators September FORECAST: -0.3% yoy previous: -0.2% yoy
• 19:30 US: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari speaks at Chippewa Falls Area Chamber of Commerce event
• 23:00 US: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid speaks at CFA Society Kansas City event

🌐 Stock exchange battle: Deutsche Börse, ICE, Euronext, NASDAQ - who dominates trading? 📊

For the development (company figures), a better view and more, check out the free blog:https://topicswithhead.beehiiv.com/p/b-rsen-battle-deutsche-b-rse-ice-euronext-nasdaq-wer-dominiert-den-handel

Company presentation

German Stock Exchange AG

Deutsche Börse is one of the world's leading exchange operators and offers a wide range of services in the areas of trading, clearing and market infrastructure. In addition to the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, the company has particularly distinguished itself through its innovative strength in the field of electronic trading.

Euronext NV

Euronext is a pan-European exchange group that operates markets in Belgium, France, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway and Portugal. It is the largest stock exchange in Europe and offers a platform for trading shares, bonds and derivatives.

Nasdaq

As the world's first electronic stock exchange, founded in 1971, Nasdaq has developed into the leading trading center for technology companies. It is known for its high liquidity and the immense trading volume that is handled daily.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)

ICE operates global financial and commodity markets and is best known for its acquisition of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The company offers a wide range of services, including trading in energy, commodities and financial derivatives.

Historical development

• German Stock Exchange: Its origins date back to the 16th century. The modern Deutsche Börse was created in the 1990s through mergers of regional exchanges and has since undergone extensive digitization.
• Euronext: Founded in 2000 through the merger of several European exchanges, Euronext has become the leading European platform through acquisitions, such as Borsa Italiana 2021.
• Nasdaq: Since its inception, Nasdaq has revolutionized electronic trading. The launch of the Nasdaq 100 index in 1985 strengthened its position as the central trading platform for tech companies.
• ICE: ICE was founded in 2000 and has rapidly expanded its position as a global player through strategic acquisitions, including NYSE in 2013.

Business model

• Deutsche Börse: It offers a comprehensive range of securities and derivatives trading as well as clearing and settlement services via Clearstream. Its diversification strengthens its competitiveness.
• Euronext: As an integrated platform, Euronext covers trading in equities, bonds and derivatives and offers additional services in the areas of corporate services and technology.
• Nasdaq: Nasdaq focuses on electronic trading, particularly in the technology sector, and offers innovative products such as ETFs and indices.
• ICE: ICE combines trading in commodities and financial derivatives and also offers clearing services, which increases the efficiency and transparency of its platforms.

Core competencies

• Deutsche Börse: Excellent technical infrastructure and market knowledge.
• Euronext: Leader in European market infrastructure with a diversified service offering.
• Nasdaq: Innovative strength in electronic trading and a strong presence in the technology sector.
• ICE: Expertise in commodities and derivatives trading as well as strong clearing capabilities.

Future prospects

• Deutsche Börse: Focus on digital transformation and entry into new markets.
• Euronext: Investing in sustainable financing and consolidating its market position in Europe.
• Nasdaq: Expansion of AI and blockchain-based technologies for trading optimization.
• ICE: Expanding its product portfolio with innovative trading solutions and technologies.

Strategic initiatives

• Deutsche Börse: Securing its market position through acquisitions and investments in new technologies.
• Euronext: Focuses on expansion through acquisitions of regional markets to create an integrated European trading platform.
• Nasdaq: Focuses on launching new products, especially to support growing technology companies.
• ICE: Strong integration of new technologies to optimize trading processes and expand its business model.

Market position and competition

German Stock Exchange

Strong in Europe

Euronext

Euronext

Leading in Europe

German Stock Exchange

Nasdaq

Leading in the USA

NYSE

ICE

Strong global position

CME Group

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

• German stock exchange: Coverage of the European market with a focus on equities and derivatives trading.
• Euronext: Coverage of the European market with a focus on equities and bonds.
• Nasdaq: Global technology market with a particular focus on the USA.
• ICE: Covers global commodities and financial derivatives markets.

• Equity performance
• $DB1 (+1,35 %)
  : TR over 10 years is 366%
• $ENX (+0,93 %)
  : TR is 620% over 10 years
• $NDAQ (-1,29 %)
  : TR is 503% for 10 years
• $ICE (+0,26 %)
  : TR is on 10 years is 343,1%

For the development (company figures), better view and more check out the free blog:https://topicswithhead.beehiiv.com/p/b-rsen-battle-deutsche-b-rse-ice-euronext-nasdaq-wer-dominiert-den-handel

Conclusion

Stock market shares are always interesting because they benefit disproportionately from good stock market years due to their relatively fixed costs. In addition, these companies are increasingly developing into data managers, which promises further growth and efficiency gains. There is still plenty of potential for consolidation and growth in the European stock exchanges in particular, especially due to the dynamic market activities.

When looking at capital efficiency, Euronext and Deutsche Börse stand out, either as top performers or as only slightly worse alternatives. Therefore, they are my preferred candidates if I had to make a decision. Despite everything, all the stocks mentioned have performed impressively, which is why I hold all but ICE and regularly buy more.

If you are active on the stock market and want to participate, you can hardly go wrong with these stocks. My three stocks in particular offer excellent diversification, as each of the exchanges has its own advantages and disadvantages.

It should be particularly emphasized that the Nasdaq also includes Scandinavian stock exchange operators, which also contributes to diversification and offers interesting growth opportunities.

If you look at historical performance, Euronext would be the clear outperformer and therefore the best choice over the last 10 years.

The debt capital market (Debt Capital Market, DCM) enables corporations and governments to raise capital through the issuance of bonds and other debt instruments. This is a list of the top players per region:

• Bank of America Securities ($BAC (+0,32 %))
• Is not only the largest player in North America, but also globally. It remained in second place for global issue volumes and fee income and rose in the rankings for high-yield bonds in the USA from 5th to 3rd place.

• Erste Group ($EBS (+1,19 %))
• supported Central and Eastern Europe with significant deals such as the issuance of € 600 million sustainability-linked bonds for CEZ ($CEZ (+0,93 %)) and green bonds of 500 million euros for Ceske drahy.

• Deutsche Bank ($DBK (+2,28 %))

secured outstanding deals in Europe, including a 2.5 billion US dollar bond from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and a 3.3 billion US dollar bond offer from the German Stock Exchange ($DB1 (+1,35 %)).

>>> Info in connection with $DB1 (+1,35 %)
<<<

The German Stock Exchange is to set up a joint venture with the US company Forge company.

Together, they are building a trading platform for non-listed companies, which will make it possible to become a shareholder in large companies such as Klarna, Revolut or OpenAI from a certain minimum investment!

Source:

https://financefwd.com/de/forge-europe/

Which of you actually holds $DB1 (+1,35 %) ?

For me, it's one of the best German companies, but you read relatively little about it on Getquin.

Maybe I'm a bit biased because I worked there for years, but it's the biggest German position in my portfolio.

"When we talk to China, we get an airport; when we talk to Germany, we get a lecture." - Another round of Germany bashing

A few days ago, I read a very interesting article about Germany and many of our problems in Manager Magazin:

It mentions 3 keywords in detail: Morality, Prices & Technology

Morality:

The quote in the headline comes from the (Nigerian) Director-General of the WTO after she was invited by our Foreign Minister.

Many countries and regions of the world do not want to receive a moral lecture every time they place an order or invest in or with Germany. So they prefer to buy from other countries that simply want to do business

Prices:

The article mentions that BASF $BAS (+0,5 %) and Lanxess $LXS (+1,57 %) will give up their ammonia production in Germany because it is simply no longer economically viable given the energy prices here. Both companies will now operate most of their production in China.

Not only are we creating a further dependency on China, we are also doing massive damage to the environment. Ammonia is produced in China in a much less environmentally friendly way, which will increase CO2 emissions by a factor of 10.

Winner: China

Loser: Germany and the environment

Technology and "digital sovereignty":

While we don't seem to care about sovereignty in many cases (see the example of ammonia from above), we absolutely want to achieve it in the digital realm and are daring to go it alone here without the Americans (who are miles ahead).

Among others, our misappointed minister of the interior Nancy Faeser only wants to use home-grown software for the police - so they are tinkering with something themselves instead of relying on good, functioning software.

According to the article, the Bundeswehr also does not want to use software from abroad, unlike most other partners.

-> In the end, we will probably burn a lot of money again and have to continue to rely on fax and the like

As we are on a stock market platform here and not a political platform, I don't want to go into detail about the political view (don't vote for the Greens 😉), but how we as investors can deal with this.

And there is one way in particular: invest as little as possible in Germany and, if you do, only very selectively. My portfolio therefore only contains the following German stocks:

• Allianz
  $ALV (-0,05 %) As we Germans are known to be very security-conscious people, it is clear that we are particularly good at one thing: Insurance. As the largest or one of the largest insurers in the world, Allianz is therefore a good German share for me. In addition, my purchase in the corona low at €120 has given me a personal dividend yield of almost 10%
• Bechtle
  $BC8 (+2,06 %) If we want to make progress with digitalization, we need system houses like Bechtle. They digitize companies or even government agencies on both the software and hardware side - in addition, the company regularly increases its sales and dividends
• Encavis
  $ECV (+0,86 %) The topic of energy will be with us for a long time to come, and I believe that companies with a strong or pure focus on renewable energies can benefit from this. I think Encavis is well positioned here
• Sartorius
  $SRT3 (+0,79 %) In my view, pharmaceuticals will be one of the major growth areas alongside tech due to demographic developments, and we need laboratories for pharmaceutical research. As a laboratory supplier, Sartorius is therefore also operating in an exciting environment, which is currently affected by the end of the pandemic - during Corona there was a lot of purchasing, these stocks are now being reduced first. With Thermo Fisher $TMO (-0,71 %) is another company from this sector in my portfolio, also with similar problems

Regardless of these companies, I don't think there are too many exciting German stocks left. Munich Re $MUV2 (+0,58 %) could still be mentioned, and Porsche $P911 (+1,01 %) could also be an exciting brand and therefore share. Deutsche Börse might also be exciting $DB1 (+1,35 %) and, as very conservative stocks, possibly Telekom $DTE (+3,26 %) or Deutsche Post / DHL $DHL (+1,76 %)

What do you think of the points mentioned in the article?

And what are still "must have" stocks from Germany for you?

https://www.manager-magazin.de/politik/deutschland/mittelstand-warum-german-free-international-zum-werbeslogan-wird-a-2f28a720-c2ce-46a9-bdd6-dc9d8bcacd05

#aktie
#stocks
#deutschland
#personalstrategy

As every Sunday, the most important news of the last week and the dates of the next week.

The dates of the next week as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/Z2rjD3rE6NY?feature=share

Monday:

$RYA (+2,25 %) Ryanair benefits from the resurgence in travel. In the 2nd quarter, profits increased significantly. To a surplus of 663 million euros. A year ago, the profit was still 188 million euros. Nevertheless, Ryanair expects fewer guests for the full year. This is due to delays in the delivery of new Boeing jets.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/handel-konsumgueter/luftfahrt-billigflieger-ryanair-mit-gewinnsprung/29274334.html?nlayer=Newsticker_1985586

Bad industrial data from Germany, things are just not going well at the moment. The purchasing managers' index is even worse than expected. The manufacturing index fell to 38.8 (forecast: 41). This is the worst value in 38 months. In the service sector, the result is also worse than expected. The industrial sector is now downsizing its workforce, while the service sector is at least hiring less.

https://finanzmarktwelt.de/deutsche-wirtschaft-industrie-weiter-im-freien-fall-277800/

New logo for $0QZBl Twitter, instead of the bird in the future the 'X'. Elon Musk has once again taken the cake. Twitter is coming under pressure due to the successful launch of Threads, among other things. The meta company was able to gain more than 100 million users in a very short time with its Twitter counterpart.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/technik/it-internet/kurznachrichtendienst-twitter-logo-auch-in-web-version-geaendert-x-ersetzt-den-vogel/29273560.html

$ADS (+0,67 %) Adidas is probably doing better than expected. The group is now raising its forecast, the reason being a successful sell-out of the Yeezy collection. Sales will drop less than expected, and the operating loss will be less than expected.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/sportartikel-adidas-erhoeht-nach-erfolgreichem-ausverkauf-der-yeezy-schuhe-die-prognose/29274314.html

$BAYN (+1,98 %) Bayer collapses in the short term. The forecast had to be scrapped because of glyphosate sales. Glyphosate remains the biggest risk for Bayer. FCF is expected to drop to 0!!! instead of 3 billion euros this year.

However, such behavior is typical after a CEO change. Also known as 'cleaning the desk' the new CEO puts everything bad into the inaugural year, blames the predecessor and then looks really good afterwards because they got the company on track.

dpa-AFX ProFeed

Tuesday:

The business climate in Germany deteriorated significantly. The ifo barometer fell to 87.3 points, 88 points had been expected. Germany is already in recession. For Thursday, a further interest rate hike by the ECB is nevertheless expected. However, with such data, this could be the last for the time being.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/konjunktur-ifo-geschaeftsklimaindex-faellt-staerker-als-erwartet/29276414.html

#china shares rise sharply. The reason is not the sudden disappearance of Foreign Minister Qin Gang, who is being replaced by his predecessor Wang Yi. It is an announced economic stimulus program. Consumption is to be boosted, aid is to be provided for companies and the real estate sector is to be stabilized. Exact details are not yet known, however.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/07/25/economy/china-politburo-economy-hnk-intl/index.html

As a result of the interest rate turnaround, companies have taken out significantly fewer loans. This is the result of an ECB survey. Investment loans in particular fell sharply. Another alarm signal from the economy. Italy was hit hardest by the decline in loans among the four major economies in the EU. Banks expect a further decline in the third quarter.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/banken-versicherungen/banken/bank-lending-survey-folgen-der-zinswende-kreditnachfrage-von-unternehmen-bricht-ein/29276694.html

Forecast increases by $DB1 (+1,35 %) Deutsche Börse and by $RWE (-0,98 %) RWE. Both companies expect a better result for the full year.

Also $GOOGL (-2,39 %) Alphabet and $MSFT (+0,34 %) Microsoft also delivered figures above expectations.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/banken-versicherungen/banken/quartalszahlen-deutsche-boerse-steigert-nettoerloese-um-20-prozent/29277980.html

Wednesday:

Also the $DBK (+2,28 %) Deutsche Bank exceeds analysts' expectations. In the 1st half, a pre-tax profit of EUR 3.3 billion was achieved, the best result since 2011. A share buyback program of EUR 450 million was also announced.

https://www.db.com/news/detail/20230726-deutsche-bank-veroeffentlicht-ergebnisse-zum-zweiten-quartal-2023?language_id=3

$P911 (+1,01 %) Porsche earns slightly more than expected, however the Taycan is not selling well in China. The electric Macan also cannot yet be sold. Despite good figures and confirmation of the forecast, the stock market is therefore going down a bit for the time being.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/-geschaeftszahlen-im-newsblog-mehr-umsatz-mehr-gewinn-o2-legt-bei-mobilfunkvertraegen-zu/24098412.html

$VOW3 (+1,97 %) Volkswagen takes a 5% stake in XPENG, and the share price makes a huge leap upwards. With XPENG, the company wants to develop cars, especially for the Chinese market. Audi has already announced a cooperation with SAIC in recent days. In any case, the investment has already paid off for VW. After the announcement, the share price increased by 30%.

https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/kampf-um-markt-fuer-e-autos-vw-steigt-bei-china-startup-xpeng-ein-a-343ff70e-2cd2-4105-a5a2-3e4ce3e222cd

The #fed at raised the key interest rate to a range of 5.25 - 5.50%. This is the highest it has been in 22 years. Inflation in the USA is now at 3.0%. Only 1 percentage point away from the 2.0% target. Initially, there was no real reaction. Jerome Powell also left the further course of action open in the press conference. So there may be another interest rate hike in September.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/geldpolitik-fed-erhoeht-den-leitzins-auf-den-hoechsten-stand-seit-22-jahren/29280406.html

Also $MBG (+2,06 %) Mercedes also raises its annual forecast, probably catching some investors on the wrong foot. Many market participants had rather expected forecast reductions in the automotive sector.

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/mehr-zuversicht-mercedes-benz-aktie-mercedes-benz-erhoeht-nach-solidem-zweiten-quartal-den-jahresausblick-12674100

Also $META (-0,11 %) Meta delivers. The Group was still in a slumber during the winter, but now growth fantasies seem to have reawakened. Here, too, the forecast has been raised.

https://stock3.com/news/meta-uebertrifft-die-erwartungen-12783323

Thursday:

The situation at VW is different from that at Mercedes. Profits continue to rise, but the sales forecast is capped. Profit and sales are expected to be achieved as planned. In the 2nd quarter, sales have increased by 15% to EUR 80 billion.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/autobauer-volkswagen-kappt-auslieferungsziel-operativer-gewinn-steigt-kraeftig/29281434.html

$KGX (+0,46 %) raises its forecast again. EBIT up 11.7% year-on-year. Sales increase by 1.5%. Cash flow also improved significantly and debt was reduced. A capital increase thus appears to be off the table.

https://www.nebenwerte-magazin.com/kion-group-steigert-profitabilitaet/

The ECB also raises its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points. This brings the key interest rate in the euro zone to 4.25%. Prices rose significantly immediately after the announcement. Presumably, some shorts were liquidated as a hedge.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/ezb-liveblog-so-erklaert-ezb-praesidentin-lagarde-die-neunte-anhebung-in-folge/29281808.html

The president leaves open what will happen in September. However, she emphasizes that a decision will be made based on new data. She also emphasizes that this time they are deliberately saying that they do not need to take any further steps. The current key interest rate could therefore be sufficient to limit inflation. Whether it was really the last rate hike depends on the further development of inflation. There is a lot to be said for it being the last rate hike in this interest rate cycle. Perhaps, however, there will still be surprising price drivers in the coming weeks.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/press_conference/html/index.de.html

Friday:

No real interest rate hike in Japan 🇯🇵 However, a step away from the ultra-loose interest rate policy. In Japan, the central bank controls the interest rates on government bonds. Officially, the yield curve here is 0.5%, but now they want to allow interest rates of up to 1.0%. The key interest rate remains at -0.1%.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/bank-of-japan-kurswechsel-light-der-minuszins-bleibt-aber-japans-notenbank-weicht-die-zinskurvenkontrolle-auf/29284196.html

$INTC (+1,26 %) Intel convinces with its quarterly figures. Both the decline in sales and profits were below expectations. The share was therefore able to increase significantly.

https://app.handelsblatt.com/technik/it-internet/chiphersteller-umsatz-und-gewinnrueckgang-bei-intel-kleiner-als-befuerchtet/29283842.html

Key dates for the coming week:

Monday: 11:00 Consumer prices (EURO)

Tuesday: 16:00 Trade data (USA)

Wednesday: 14:15 Employment data (USA)

Thursday: 13:00 Interest rate decision (UK)

Friday: 11:00 Retail Sales (EURO)

#tradinggame
- A beautiful idea! 🥰

I have been very limited in the spread. Since you could also directly get the $VWRL (+0 %) as a single position and let it run. 😅

My attempt with 5 positions, which I would probably never acquire privately under Buy&Hold, but since the time is very limited, it should work out.

$VBK (+3,64 %) - A very beleaguered candidate of high grain prices. Chart-wise, with today's euphoria, the upside is now happening. One of my absolute favorite stocks, also in the private sector.

$JD (-4,36 %) - A rather unpopular candidate due to its origin. The consumer slump is also persistent in China. But there are strong calls for an interest rate cut there, which should help Chinese stocks in particular.

$DB1 (+1,35 %) - Safe haven for all time. As long as prices move, money will be printed.

$E4C (+0,38 %) - A smallcap with massive potential. Business figures have always been strong and the business model is also robust. After a high dividend payment, the lower entry price should attract new investors again.

$BKHT (+0,83 %) - Also a smallcap with huge potential. They acquire mid-market tech companies and sell them in the B2B space. The acting CEO has a golden hand, which he proves again and again.

Click here for the portfolio: https://getqu.in/7yH2y5/s9Dobr/

I hope for a fair and honest game!

If you are allowed to nominate here, as with every challenge normally, I wish the play along of @Der_Dividenden_Monteur , @Staatsmann and @FrauManu . 😅

first small position opened