https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYziHTZk8Bo

$NBIS (+3,09 %)

00:00:00 Market environment

00:24:00 Bitcoin, Cryptos, Coinbase, Strategy

00:40:20 Nebius

01:14:40 AMD & AI

01:26:20 Nightmare Trade Republic deposit transfer

Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/2OJnJduaLZHyE5uwt4S1ft?si=MEYLEW2gQGaiV2td_FkCZg

YouTube

https://youtu.be/q0KoytIy2V4

Apple Podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/119-chaos-bei-trade-republic-nebius-amd-bitcoin-coinbase/id1695869891?i=1000737380098

$NBIS (+3,09 %)
$BTC (-3,45 %)
$AMD (+1,21 %)
#traderepublic

$3350 (-0,38 %)
$NBIS (+3,09 %)
$CIFR (+1,21 %)
$NOVO B (+0,67 %)

Since I want to be absolutely transparent here and not always just share the positive purchases, I should also post my sales and gimmicks.

I sold to minimize the risk slightly $3350 (-0,38 %) to have some capital free and because the $BTC (-3,45 %) could not hold the 100,000 $.

I also have a lot of profits in the loss compensation pot to create clear transparency here too: 8,879.48 .

For the smaller positions in the portfolio such as $NBIS (+3,09 %) or $CIFR (+1,21 %) I could also pull the ripcord again at any time if I realize it might go a little lower or the sentiment changes. $IREN (+2,83 %) And $SOFI (+2,73 %) are my core positions, so nothing will change. Even with $HIMS (+4,27 %) I see more opportunities to buy and $PATH (+2,85 %) and $PRCT is holding up very well, I could double again today.

$NOVO B (+0,67 %) and $UNH (+3,67 %) are more cash positions, I find the valuations super attractive and am convinced that we have a super risk/opportunity potential here, but it can happen that I sacrifice parts of it in favor of tech if I see opportunities or get FOMO. 😊 (possibly also the whole position)

As quickly as it goes up, it can also go down again, be aware of your risk tolerance and don't let your emotions guide you, especially if you are an investor, short-term volatility is irrelevant. $IREN (+2,83 %) can easily jump up again by 20-50% in the event of potential deals.

For anyone who finds this post annoying, just keep scrolling 😁, I just wanted to provide clarity for those people who might buy everything blindly, I think that's the way it should be.

Since I do everything from my cell phone and don't always have time to upload it right away, my purchases / sales don't always come right away and sometimes with a time delay.

And to prove the authenticity of my portfolio for those who question it:

Here are a few explanations 🫡

Yes, fees could be lower, but in Austria as a tax-simple broker and to be able to buy almost any share, hardly any alternatives and I don't want to bother with Trade Republic 😊

Therefore my $BKNG (+4,41 %) position believe but no matter 😅

$NBIS (+3,09 %)

$NBIS (+3,09 %) Q3:

Sales: 146.1m (+355% YoY)

ARR guidance by the end of 2025: 900-1.1 bn

ARR 2026: 7-9 bn (+700%)

Loss/share: approx. -0.56 USD

Explosive growth and demandThe core business in the AI cloud sector is already profitable with a +19% adjusted EBITDA margin and is growing successively - from zero to an estimated USD 8 bn ARR by the end of 2026. Demand is "infinite", Nebius is fully booked for months (currently no free capacity, therefore deal with "only" USD 3 bn). $META (+2,27 %) "only" 3 bn) The focus is on scaling capacity, as this is the biggest bottleneck.

Strategy for capex and constructionCapex is divided into three phases: Land and power securing (only 1% of costs), data center construction (18-20%) and GPU deployment (80%). Nebius secures capacity aggressively, but only builds as much as capital and real demand allow. Vertical integration ensures high margins, acquisitions (e.g. of Bitcoin miners for land/power) are being examined.

Deals with hyperscalersSee above (alongside an earlier USD 17 billion agreement with Microsoft). Such partnerships are expected, but Nebius prioritizes its own cloud business. Hyperscaler deals are "less interesting" as capacity is limited - customers are selected based on highest price per MW.

Risks and outlookIn response to questions about the AI bubble, the CEO replied that there is real demand and value creation as long as diversification (via customers), conservative investments and responsible financing are maintained. ARR guidance for 2025 remains at USD 900-1,100m, with ARR multiplication to 8x by 2026 at leading margins. The mix of core AI (profitable) and subsidiaries (valued at c. USD 10bn) makes the valuation very attractive.

Small dilution is of course also planned (10% for 700% YoY growth is bullish for me). They want to increase the pipeline to 2.5GW by the end of 2026, 50% of which is already "booked/blocked" according to the CRO.

I remain very optimistic. If the share price now goes to €90 due to the dilution, I will buy more.

Lg Max

$NBIS (+3,09 %) has just signed a five-year contract worth 3 billion dollars to supply AI infrastructure to $META (+2,27 %) has been finalized.